Brexit delayed

[fivepointer]

This is worth revisiting. Published in January 2016, offering expert, informed opinion. Quite why people in Govt (and in opposition) havent fully understood and negotiated faithfully on the options is beyond me.

It concludes -
none of the options available to the UK, in case it were to decide to withdraw from the EU are attractive. Any option would take the UK in one of two directions:
 The UK would become a kind of satellite of the EU,with the obligation to transpose into its domestic law EU regulations and directives for the single market.
 The UK would suffer from higher barriers between its economy and its main market, obliging the government to start trade negotiations from scratch, both with the EU and with the rest of the world, without having much bargaining power.
In short, if the UK chooses to leave the EU, it will be left between a rock and a hard place.
On the one hand, it is unlikely that the UK’s European partners would allow the UK to remain in the EU with a special status, which would need a significant revision of the EU’s basic treaties. If the UK sought such a deal,the EU would oppose such a ‘pick and choose’ approach that could lead, in the long run, to the dismantling of the European project.
On the other hand, withdrawing from the EU and negotiating a new agreement with it would not be easy either. None of the available options could satisfy at the same time the UK’s political wishes and its economic interests. In exchange for access to the single market, Britain’s partners would impose on the UK a requirement to apply corresponding EU laws, without it being able to take part in their drafting.

https://cer.eu/sites/default/files/pb_p ... 2jan16.pdf

[Digby]

A variant on the lady's not for turning then, and we're sticking with a plan for Brexit that's not wanted by anyone. At what point could we put some drunk drug addicts with dementia in charge and not notice the difference?

[Mellsblue]

Goodness me. The odds on no deal just dropped through the floor.

[fivepointer]

May doing her level best to paint herself and this useless Govt into an even tighter corner.
This might play well with some of the public and the Tory party but its a pretty poor strategy in moving towards some kind of deal.

[Digby]

I honestly don't know how to respond to May's comments, my flabber is gasted

[Mellsblue]

I think a (bespoke) deal is now out of the window. It’s either Norway or Canada. To be fair, the EU have been saying this for 80% of the time but there has been quite a bit of noise that a bespoke deal could be found, and even that Chequers had some merit, but yesterday blew that out of water.
I don’t know what Juncker spiked Tusk’s drink with but he’s gone from being reasonable and positive to openly trolling May on social media in the space of one summit. If Trump had pulled that stunt with the cake the liberal world would, rightly, have a meltdown.

[morepork]

Mmmmmm...cake...

[Mikey Brown]

I’d sort of forgotten how much I hate hearing her speak.

[Digby]

I think a (bespoke) deal is now out of the window. It’s either Norway or Canada. To be fair, the EU have been saying this for 80% of the time but there has been quite a bit of noise that a bespoke deal could be found, and even that Chequers had some merit, but yesterday blew that out of water.
I don’t know what Juncker spiked Tusk’s drink with but he’s gone from being reasonable and positive to openly trolling May on social media in the space of one summit. If Trump had pulled that stunt with the cake the liberal world would, rightly, have a meltdown.

I just don't understand how we can wait years after saying we want to leave before submitting proposals saying how, have those proposals entail elements the EU have always said wouldn't be appropriate and then get worried by an instagram post. The gap in what should pass for acceptable behaviour doesn't make us look good, and worse on repeat basis our senior ministers have deemed it acceptable to say we'd renege on previous agreements, and how that's not more serious than a picture of a cherry I simply don't know

Nothing really changed yesterday, the EU still likes the bits of May's plan they liked before, that we weirdly assumed their partial acceptance meant really they would deal on the whole is on us

[Mellsblue]

I think a (bespoke) deal is now out of the window. It’s either Norway or Canada. To be fair, the EU have been saying this for 80% of the time but there has been quite a bit of noise that a bespoke deal could be found, and even that Chequers had some merit, but yesterday blew that out of water.
I don’t know what Juncker spiked Tusk’s drink with but he’s gone from being reasonable and positive to openly trolling May on social media in the space of one summit. If Trump had pulled that stunt with the cake the liberal world would, rightly, have a meltdown.

I just don't understand how we can wait years after saying we want to leave before submitting proposals saying how, have those proposals entail elements the EU have always said wouldn't be appropriate and then get worried by an instagram post. The gap in what should pass for acceptable behaviour doesn't make us look good, and worse on repeat basis our senior ministers have deemed it acceptable to say we'd renege on previous agreements, and how that's not more serious than a picture of a cherry I simply don't know

Nothing really changed yesterday, the EU still likes the bits of May's plan they liked before, that we weirdly assumed their partial acceptance meant really they would deal on the whole is on us

Yep, we’ve been glacially slow but the EU haven’t exactly raced to a response to Chequers and that response hasn’t looked much like the mood music they have been playing since it was put forward.
Tusk’s behaviour on social media has nothing to with how negotiations have been progressing. They are wholly separate issues. If you think that post is acceptable, let alone statesman like, the you can’t see your own hypocrisy on the Trump thread. How you view someone’s behaviour really shouldn’t be viewed through the prism of whether you agree with their politics/stance on a subject. Both are pathetic but whereas you expect it from Trump, and his constant immaturity becomes background music, Tusk’s seems to be out of character and is therefore all the more shocking. If Fox/Davis/Rees-Mogg did something similar you’d be on here slagging them off ASAP, and rightly so. It just not how you behave, unless we’ve all decided that if you can’t beat Trump we might as well join him.

[Digby]

It's daft from Tusk in that it certainly doesn't gain him anything and likely loses him a bit, but it's not Trump like

The EU as an aside did perhaps have more to say on May's deal but were told to shush as there was only one deal on the table. And clearly there is something of a split in the EU and getting a combined update does take a little time, even when the combined update is Germany just pretending to listen to the others before saying what they want, you

[Digby]

I should perhaps allow I've not actually seen what Tusk did, but I don't have an interest in or follow social media much. So I heard about it on Radio 4 which isn't maybe the most alarmist coverage around, and I'd want a lot of money before reading any of our tabloids

[canta_brian]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-45616308

Well I guess that's an effective way to shift position without being seen to back track on your current position.

There would appear to be quite a ground-swell developing for a 2nd vote. It almost appears to be the will of the people, something IDS and his friends have the utmost respect for.

[Sandydragon]

Corbyn would be an utter idiot not to offer a second referendum, even if it would be difficult to hold one in the time remaining.

[Digby]

We'll have to wait and see what happens and whether John and Jeremy can avoid conference sticking them with a policy they simply don't want and what they do with such. It's amusing their push for 'democracy' backfires on them if only in part, and as acts of leadership go running after your people to see where they're going is a style of leadership devoid of actual leadership

[canta_brian]

Corbyn would be an utter idiot not to offer a second referendum, even if it would be difficult to hold one in the time remaining.

Labour would probably want to link a 2nd referendum to a general election and only announce their shift once the election is confirmed.

[Sandydragon]

We'll have to wait and see what happens and whether John and Jeremy can avoid conference sticking them with a policy they simply don't want and what they do with such. It's amusing their push for 'democracy' backfires on them if only in part, and as acts of leadership go running after your people to see where they're going is a style of leadership devoid of actual leadership

I think their views on democracy were very clear at last years conference when they managed to suppress any discussion on Brexit.

[Sandydragon]

Corbyn would be an utter idiot not to offer a second referendum, even if it would be difficult to hold one in the time remaining.

Labour would probably want to link a 2nd referendum to a general election and only announce their shift once the election is confirmed.

Politically that would make plenty of sense.

[Digby]

Corbyn would be an utter idiot not to offer a second referendum, even if it would be difficult to hold one in the time remaining.

Labour would probably want to link a 2nd referendum to a general election and only announce their shift once the election is confirmed.

Politically that would make plenty of sense.

For Labour if not the country, both parties are equally culpable in addressing their own wishes ahead of the country

[Digby]

We'll have to wait and see what happens and whether John and Jeremy can avoid conference sticking them with a policy they simply don't want and what they do with such. It's amusing their push for 'democracy' backfires on them if only in part, and as acts of leadership go running after your people to see where they're going is a style of leadership devoid of actual leadership

I think their views on democracy were very clear at last years conference when they managed to suppress any discussion on Brexit.

That was both staggering and typically socialist

[Sandydragon]

Labour would probably want to link a 2nd referendum to a general election and only announce their shift once the election is confirmed.

Politically that would make plenty of sense.

For Labour if not the country, both parties are equally culpable in addressing their own wishes ahead of the country

Agreed. In a perfect world the leaders of the parties would have been able to hammer out an acceptable compromise and sideline the nutters in all the parties.

But labour won’t support any deal made by the conservatives.

[Digby]

Len McLuskey saying if there's another referendum all options would relate to a mode of leaving, which puts him at odds with a number of other unions and a large number of the newer labour members.

Len is also claiming Jezza campaigned strongly to remain, which suggests he's drinking early in the day being at conference or is just flat out delusional

[Mellsblue]

Politically that would make plenty of sense.

For Labour if not the country, both parties are equally culpable in addressing their own wishes ahead of the country

Agreed. In a perfect world the leaders of the parties would have been able to hammer out an acceptable compromise and sideline the nutters in all the parties.

But labour won’t support any deal made by the conservatives.

You could argue the leaders are the nutters.

[Sandydragon]

And of course organising and campaigning in an election takes time. Which we don’t have prior to leaving unless the EU extends our membership, which I’d be surprised if they did as elections are due soon and the last thing they want is Farage et al in their parliament being a pain alongside all the other populists.

[Sandydragon]

For Labour if not the country, both parties are equally culpable in addressing their own wishes ahead of the country

Agreed. In a perfect world the leaders of the parties would have been able to hammer out an acceptable compromise and sideline the nutters in all the parties.

But labour won’t support any deal made by the conservatives.

You could argue the leaders are the nutters.

Corbyn is very aligned with the lunatic fringe in his party. May less so, she isn’t quite bad full on radio rental as some of the conservative activists I’ve come across or the likes of Rees Mogg.