Statistic of the Day

[Lizard]

Highest scores conceded by Tier 1 Test sides* v Japan

Argentina: 44** (1998)
South Africa: 34** (2015)
Italy: 34** (2018)
NZ: 31 (2018)
Wales: 30 (2001)
Australia: 30 (2017)
France: 29 RWC2003)
Ireland: 28 (RWC1995)
Scotland: 17 (2013)
England: 7 (RWC1987)

England's match in a couple of week will only be their second capped fixture against Japan following their pool match at RWC1987. Japan have awarded test caps in 21 other fixtures against English teams including Oxford and Cambridge Universities (separately and combined), uncapped England XV's, England U23, England Students and England A.


*This excludes uncapped national selections against whom Japan awarded test caps
**Japanese victory

[Lizard]

Current England squad members experience v NZ:

played v NZ for England & Lions: Farrell, Kruis, Lawes
For Lions only: Daly, George, Itoje, Nowell, Sinckler, Te'o,
For England only: Ashton, Care, Ford, Hartley, May, Tuilagi, Youngs
Never played v NZ: Ewels, Hepburn, Mercer, Moon, Shields, Slade, Underhill, Williams, Wilson

Players in italics have never had a win or draw v NZ.

[Puja]

Current England squad members experience v NZ:

played v NZ for England & Lions: Farrell, Kruis, Lawes
For Lions only: Daly, George, Itoje, Nowell, Sinckler, Te'o,
For England only: Ashton, Care, Ford, Hartley, May, Tuilagi, Youngs
Never played v NZ: Ewels, Hepburn, Mercer, Moon, Shields, Slade, Underhill, Williams, Wilson

Players in italics have never had a win or draw v NZ.

Would you be willig to do the reverse? While England don't exactly have the same intimidation factor that NZ do, I'd be curious to know how much of your likely XXIII have ever played us.

Puja

[Digby]

Some of those names would also be valid entries in a never played for NZ list

[Lizard]

I’ll do NZ when the XXIII is named.

[Lizard]

In the meantime:

Both NZ and Namibia are on equal world record streaks of 12 tests scoring 4+ tries.

Namibia is playing Russia this weekend, who was the last team they played (scoring 2 tries) before beginning their streak, which has included 10 tests v other African nations and 2 v Uruguay.

NZ is playing England a few hours later. They only scored 3 tries v Scotland before beginning their streak which has included Wales, France, all TRC opposition, & Japan.

[Lizard]

Current England squad members experience v NZ:

played v NZ for England & Lions: Farrell, Kruis, Lawes
For Lions only: Daly, George, Itoje, Nowell, Sinckler, Te'o,
For England only: Ashton, Care, Ford, Hartley, May, Tuilagi, Youngs
Never played v NZ: Ewels, Hepburn, Mercer, Moon, Shields, Slade, Underhill, Williams, Wilson

Players in italics have never had a win or draw v NZ.

Would you be willig to do the reverse? While England don't exactly have the same intimidation factor that NZ do, I'd be curious to know how much of your likely XXIII have ever played us.

Puja

Here you go.

Of the 23, four will see the game as a foregone conclusion, 7 will have to overcome their psychological scars, and 12 are innocents to the slaughter.

Played England, 100% win rate: B. Barrett, Crotty, Perenara, Williams

Played England, lost once: Coles, Franks, Read, Retallick, A. Smith, B. Smith, Whitelock

Never played England: S. Barrett, Goodhue, Ioane, Laulala, McKenzie, Mo'unga, A Savea, Squire, Taylor, Todd, Tu'inukuafe, Tuungafasi

Of the survivors from the 2012 loss, they all have from 5 to 7 wins v England. All but Read played in all 4 wins v England in 2014 (Read only played in 2).

[Lizard]

All Blacks most points conceded per test in a calendar year

So far in 2018, the All Blacks have given up 20.09 points per test. This is historically bad. Worst 10 years so far:

2000: 23.80 points conceded per game
1998: 19.86 (lost 5 from 7 this year)
1992: 19.78
1996: 19.00
2017: 17.79
1994: 17.67
1982: 17.67
2010: 17.57
1995: 17.08
2013: 17.07 (despite a 100% win rate!)

[zer0]

Gotta say, for all the fanfare that accompanied him, Scott McLeod really hasn't lived up to expectations so far as defence coach. Particularly when Plumtree was probably a better qualified alternative.

Come to think of it, isn't McLeod more renowned as an attack coach as opposed to a defence one?

[Lizard]

Reiko Ioane's failure to score against England has set him back a mere 1 try per test average (22 from 22). It made me wonder how often he doesn't dot down despite his 100% strike rate.

I was a bit surprised to see that in fact he has gone scoreless 8 times (36% of his test matches). He has never scored in more than 4 consecutive matches (a run that England just ended).

Obviously, this means that Ioane often scores multiple times in one test. He has 1 hat trick, 6 doubles and only 7 single-try performances.

The record for most consecutive matches scoring a try is 8 shared by John Kirwan (NZ), Christian Cullen (NZ), Daisuke Ohata (Japan and all-time scoring record holder) and Nemani Nadolo (Fiji).

[Lizard]

I’m not sure about your last point. I think Hodge kicked a penalty before Crotty subbed off in Sydney. So actually the average is 1.0 points conceded per game when they are on the field together. More informatively, that is 3 points in about 81 minutes of game time on the field.

[Lizard]

I heard someone (who should know better) say that over the weekend Chris Ashton became the first Englishman to score 3 tries against New Zealand in his career. This is not true.

He is the first to score 3 tries for England v NZ, but Rory Underwood scored 2 in Lomu’s Test at RWC1995 after getting 1 for the 1993 Lions, and Carl Aarvold scored 3 for the 1930 Great Britain side.

The reciprocal record of tries for NZ v England is 8, shares by Lomu and Julian Savea. The closest current player is Read on 3. Interestingly, those numbers don’t change even if you include matches v the Lions.

[Lizard]

Australia has played Italy 17 times with a 100% win rate. The biggest margin was 49 in 1988 and the lowest was 3 in 2012.

Only England boasts a better record with 24 played and won.

Other sides with a 100% record v Italy are New Zealand (13 matches), the Pacific Islanders and Cook Is (1 each).

The Cook Islands result might look surprising. That match was played at the end of Italy's first tour of New Zealand. Italy had played a US West Coast selection and Fiji on the way over. In new Zealand they played five matches in only 15 days (four lesser provinces and a "test" v the NZ U23s). The Cook Islands test was played only one day after the NZ U23s match with 8 of the same players, losing 15-6. Three days later, Italy whipped Tahiti 74-0.

[Eugene Wrayburn]

Can I put in a request? How many captains in the professional era have 2 wins against NZ? I'm guessing probably around 10 but I doubt more.

[Eugene Wrayburn]

Cheers cas. Thon's a fairly select group.

[Eugene Wrayburn]

Cas, could you do me a coaches with an even or better win record against the ABs follow up? Are there any apart from Schmidt? Bearing in mind how close one of the games was, that's a remarkable record.

[Lizard]

Cas, could you do me a coaches with an even or better win record against the ABs follow up? Are there any apart from Schmidt? Bearing in mind how close one of the games was, that's a remarkable record.

There’d be a few Bok/Wallaby coaches back in the day, I expect. Pro era, you’ve got:

Rod McQueen, Aust. 1997-2001: 5 wins from 7, 71.4%
Nick Mallet, SA 1997-2000: 4/7, 57.1%
Jean-Claude Skrela, FRA 1995-99: 2/4, 50%
Rassie Erasmus, SA, 2018*: 1/2, 50%
Joe Schmidt, Ire 2013-2018*: 2/4, 50%
Warren Gatland, Lions 2013-17: 1+draw/3, 50% (obviously much less if you include his Wales matches)

*Incumbent

[Eugene Wrayburn]

Cheers Liz. So 2 better and 2 equal (how did I forget about Rassie?!). Pretty good company to be in.

[Lizard]

Cheers Liz. So 2 better and 2 equal (how did I forget about Rassie?!). Pretty good company to be in.

Not all of Rassie’s or Joe’s eggs have hatched yet, so I wouldn’t go counting their chickens just yet, though.

From the amateur era (bearing in mind coaches weren’t really a thing until post WWII, and varied hugely in their roles) you can add at least:
Danie Craven, SA 1949-56, 5/8, 62.5%
Johann Claasen, SA 1970, 3/4, 75%
Careen James, Lions 1971, 2+draw/4, 62.5%
Ian Kirkpatrick, SA 1976, 3/4, 75%
Pierre Berbizier, France, 1994, 2/2, 100%

Of these, only Craven coached against NZ in more than one series.

[Lizard]

I should note that in compiling the above I ignored coaches who may have won their only match v NZ.

It’s also interesting to note that until Wales first appointed a national coach in 1967, it had a 60.0% success rate against the All Blacks. Since then, the rate has precipitously declined to 0.00%. I think there is a lesson there.

[Lizard]

I've been trying to figure out how to compare NZ and Ireland. NZ are ranked #1 by WR. Ireland have beat NZ 2 out of the last 3. Who is best?

I've compared all head-to-head results for NZ and Ireland, for all opposition (excluding Lions) since RWC 2015. Here are my observations.

1. For countries outside the old 5N and 3N, both Ireland and NZ are practically invincible. No such team has beaten either of them since RWC2015.

2. No team from within the old 5N and 3N (i.e. WR's top 8 ranked countries) has a 100% record against NZ or Ireland since RWC2015. Essentially, both sides are capable of beating any other side in the world (including each other).

3. The difference is that since RWC2015, NZ has a 100% record against Wales, England, Scotland and France and has only lost to Ireland (x2), SA (once) and Australia (once). Ireland does not have a 100% record against anybody and has lost to all seven other top 8 nations (once each to NZ, Aus, Wales, Scotland, England & France, and twice to SA).

So you could argue that on overall recent record, NZ are still clinging on as top dog. On the other hand, differing playing schedules skew the results a little. It all depends on how far back you think results are relevant.

[Eugene Wrayburn]

I've been trying to figure out how to compare NZ and Ireland. NZ are ranked #1 by WR. Ireland have beat NZ 2 out of the last 3. Who is best?

I've compared all head-to-head results for NZ and Ireland, for all opposition (excluding Lions) since RWC 2015. Here are my observations.

1. For countries outside the old 5N and 3N, both Ireland and NZ are practically invincible. No such team has beaten either of them since RWC2015.

2. No team from within the old 5N and 3N (i.e. WR's top 8 ranked countries) has a 100% record against NZ or Ireland since RWC2015. Essentially, both sides are capable of beating any other side in the world (including each other).

3. The difference is that since RWC2015, NZ has a 100% record against Wales, England, Scotland and France and has only lost to Ireland (x2), SA (once) and Australia (once). Ireland does not have a 100% record against anybody and has lost to all seven other top 8 nations (once each to NZ, Aus, Wales, Scotland, England & France, and twice to SA).

So you could argue that on overall recent record, NZ are still clinging on as top dog. On the other hand, differing playing schedules skew the results a little. It all depends on how far back you think results are relevant.

Right now (like, this week) I think we're the better team, just, though I'd expect the home team to win any matches between us. However I don't expect that to survive even to the next international window, even though there's a decent chance that we'll actually be number 1 by the end of the 6N

[Lizard]

That’s probably right. Maybe the real question is whether Ireland’s rise marks a permanent change in the pecking order, or is a bit of a flash in the pan. Given the systemic, structural basis of Ireland’s success (which is rooted in having your domestic operation directed towards international success, much like NZ) it may well be long term.

It wasn’t too long ago that the accepted order of things was that NZ was top dog, very closely followed by SA and Australia. England and France rounded out the “teams capable of winning the RWC” club. That has all been turned on its head.

NZ is clearly being threatened for top spot and the days of the Big Three are well and truly over. Our SH friends are struggling a bit. SA seems to have turned things around but how sustainable is that splitting your domestic game over both hemispheres? The future looks pretty grim over the Tasman with popularity of the sport declining. You can tell it’s bad when the NZ press start admitting that a strong Wallabies side is good for the All Blacks.

England no longer dominates 6N rugby but has its moments in the sun. Wales has retrieved itself from years of decline - perhaps due to finally getting to grips with the regional system? Scotland has finally regained its mojo and is no longer scrabbling around the bottom of the barrel with Italy. France, in the meantime, seems to have disappeared completely up its own derriere, becoming a millionaires club content with getting less than the sum of its parts from an overpaid, overweight cohort of semi-retirees and to hell with the national game.

Overall, international rugby is probably more competitive than it’s been in years, which is a good thing. It will be interesting to see how things sit by 2021.

[Eugene Wrayburn]

Definitely not permanent. Ireland does have some structural advantages but we're always going to struggle with depth. We've somehow managed to land ourselves with unprecedented depth right now, but i fully expect a reversion to the mean after the RWC. Besides unless the NZRU are idiots or the IRFU suddenly manage to get together the most massive bung ever Schmidt will be coaching the ABS after 2019 and the rest of us may as well give up.

[Lizard]

Jordie Barrett's 4 tries v Italy puts him 3rd= for most tries in a test match for the All Blacks, alongside his brother Beauden. The full list:

6 - Mark Ellis v Japan, RWC1995
5 - Jeff Wilson v Fiji, 1997
4 - Duncan McGregor v England, Originals Tour 1905
John Gallagher & Craig Green, v Fiji, RWC1987
John Kirwan v Wales, 1988
Jonah Lomu v England, RWC1995
Christian Cullen v Scotland, 1996
Jeff Wilson v Samoa, 1999
Mils Muliaina v Canada, RWC2003
Sitiveni Sivivatu v Fiji, 2005
Zac Guildford v Canada, RWC2011
Beauden Barrett v Australia, 2018
Jordie Barrett v Italy, 2018