"What happened? Did your balls drop off?" What's missing in the All Blacks?

[Eugene Wrayburn]

The only actual problem I can see is the tombola selecting the centres. You should have Crotty or Goodhue but not both as both relies on someone else pulling a rabbit out of a hat on attack.

[Lizard]

If you want A. Savea at 8, use S. Barrett at 6 to provide the missing height.

In the centres, Goodhue just needs to learn whatever it is that Crotty does to make everyone around him play better.

[Lizard]

I really want Nonu to still be 2015 Nonu. But he won’t be. I really want him to be one of the first men to win 3 World Cups. But he won’t. He is 36. If picked, he will be remembered as the obvious selection mistake that cost us the World Cup.

[Eugene Wrayburn]

The only actual problem I can see is the tombola selecting the centres. You should have Crotty or Goodhue but not both as both relies on someone else pulling a rabbit out of a hat on attack.

Exactly, neither are proper linebreaking midfielders, and the ABs have been missing someone like that since Nonu headed to France. Crotty and Goodhue is a midfield you want if you're going to be in a slugfest due to their defensive strength, but the midfield need someone to really complement each other like the Nonu/Smith duo did. The closest we've had this year, IMO, is ALB/Goodhue but no one's really emerged as a guy who can do it as reliably as Nonu did.

You've had Fekitoa and ALB who can both break a line with footwork and strength. Fekitoa maybe made a couple too many mistakes but ALB hasn't really been given the opportunities that his talent would seem to suggest.

[zer0]

1. Lack of direction from first five, which is to be somewhat expected when you have a fullback playing there. We're not front line officers. We're backfied tinpot dictators. Put Barrett at fullback, Mo'unga at first five and you'll probably see the midfield and wingers come back into the game as they'll have a first five who wants to use them. Not one who either runs it himself or chucks it to his mini-me at fullback to run it like it was a 5th Grade team.

2. Strip Read of the captaincy. Ever since he first filled in for McCaw against Argentina years ago, he just often doesn't make good tactical decisions. Make Whitelock captain as he appears to be the cool, calm, collected type who has no problems driving home any advantages his team has. See, for example, when his 2017 Crusaders overhauled the Blues from a half time deficit of ~20 points by just mauling everything when he realised the Blues couldn't contain them. Wasn't pretty but it sure as hell worked. Like McCaw, Whitelock also seems much more in control as a captain than Read, who seems to have a more laissez faire approach. In the first Springbok's test Read delegated the final major tactical decision of the game to two gung-ho characters in B.Barrett and Perenara who, in turn, decided to try and score a try rather than take the easiest of drop goals. That sh*t wouldn't have occurred under McCaw. And, based on how his Crusaders go about things, doubt it would've under Whitelock.

3. Sort out the loose forwards. As has been touched on, they've struggled to find a replacement blindside since the refs decided Kaino was playing too tough for all the other kids on the playground. They've churned through dead ends like Squire, Fifita and Dixon, when I think our best blindside is our current openside. Heavy gain-line defence is Cane's forte and he's decently mobile, but doesn't grab that many turnovers for an openside. Shifting him across would allow Todd to slot into the vacated openside position, which would likely generate more turnovers. Those turnovers are going to be needed to win the RWC as we'd likely have to play Ireland at some stage. Plus he's a damned good player to begin with. Stripped of the captaincy, Read wouldn't be un-droppable, and would face immediate, and pressing, competition from Savea. If he's converted into a proper #8, then Frizzell would also be in the frame, otherwise A.Ioane would need to be brought in. All in all, the depth chart would look something like this:

6. Cane/Barrett/Hemopo
7. Todd/Cane/Savea
8. Read/Savea/Frizzell or Ioane

19. Barrett/Hemopo
20. Savea/Frizzell or Ioane

But that's probably not going to happen. So, if we're stuck with the same old selections (that is, Cane at openside and Read at #8 come hell or high water and Todd only getting scraps of game time at best) then I'd have one of Barrett or Hemopo as the blindside, the other on the bench to cover 4/5/6 with Savea covering 7/8.

4. Coaching. Either this is some 4D intergalactic chess, or it's just gone to sh*t. Given the results against the Lions, and the coaching personnel, I'm guessing the latter. When Henry stepped down there was always going to be an immediate drop off in coaching smarts, but the return of Wayne Smith alleviated that somewhat. Now he's gone, they're being out coached far more regularly. In particular by Schmidt and Farrell Sr. Short of declaring a state of emergency and getting Smith back for the RWC, there's not much that can be done here. My best hope is that, come the RWC elimination stage, pragmatism will take over, they'll go full Lions I/Crusaders mode and just bulldoze their way there. Ideally with Whitelock as the captain driving the bulldozer.

[zer0]

He's much more effective than Lauaki, as evident by his topping a whole host of offensive stats in SR despite playing in an injury decimated pack predominately made up of wider training group and short term contract players. He provides go forward that no other #8 in the country can match. Including Read. If Fifita can get a look in by illegally jumping into a tackle, and Frizzell by scoring a hat trick against a decimated Blues side, then I think performing well in SR through the season, and dominating the NPC, warrants a look.

[Lizard]

Honestly, I wouldn't want Ioane anywhere near the All Blacks. The only difference between him and Lauaki is that Akira is in better shape.

Hot.

Take.

[Lizard]

I really want Nonu to still be 2015 Nonu. But he won’t be. I really want him to be one of the first men to win 3 World Cups. But he won’t. He is 36. If picked, he will be remembered as the obvious selection mistake that cost us the World Cup.

Like Dane Coles was a "selection mistake?" Nonu, IMO, has earned himself enough goodwill over the years to warrant an open mind. No one is going to argue he won't be the same Nonu that headed offshore after a much better test career that most people would've expected of him based on how he started, but the fact that he's consistently given the big games at Toulon, and the fact that in this day and age, mid-30's isn't really a big issue if the player is properly managed means he's earned the benefit of the doubt unless it's proven he can't hack it any more. Besides, the backline would probably benefit from having a seasoned veteran like him around even if he's not starting every test.

What’s Dane Coles got to do with it?

Was I originally against his selection? If so then we can chalk that up alongside Ryan Crotty and, erm, Ma’a Nonu the first time round...

[Doorzetbornandbred]

Complacency is one of the issues. It could also be that 4 years on after losing half a team of all time greats you have moved back towards the chasing pack with them improving a bit as well. In some ways it will make rugby better for that happening.
I don't think Foster should be in the mix coachwise either.
Apart from that your obviously finished according to some of the drongos Ive had to endure over the last few weeks in the pub. I don't know why Eddie Jones hasn't employed them as they're such fountains of knowledge all things rugby...

[Lizard]

Oh no. Maybe we’ll ease back slightly from Hansen’s 90% success rate to our historical rate of 79%. Someone get me a tissue.

[Digby]

Oh no. Maybe we’ll ease back slightly from Hansen’s 90% success rate to our historical rate of 79%. Someone get me a tissue.

I'm not sure it's healthy to get that excited about rugby

[paddy no 11]

I've seen Akira play about twice, once again munster and thought he was class both times and he would get ye over the gainline the way read isn't anymore. As said whitelock be captain

Is the 4 nations thingy on a reduced schedule next year on account of the world cup?

[Lizard]

Huh. I don’t remember being visciously anti-Coles. It’s possible - he looked quite young and small. Presumably I had a well-reasoned and balanced view about the relative merits of Hika Elliott.

[Lizard]

More to the point, do you keep a notebook or something to remember this stuff? That’s some dedicated shit storing away a prediction made, what, 6 years ago just in case I turned out to be wrong AND an opportunity came up to casually drop shade in context of another thread. I’m quite flattered that my opinions stick so firmly in the mind.

[morepork]

Read hasn’t been right for quite a while now. Too much hoping one of our converted fullbacks will conjur up a flash move.

[canta_brian]

Too many people have been hoping the Barrett turns into Carter. At best he might turn into Spencer. I wouldn’t mind seeing him at 12 with Crotty 13 to run the defence. Put Bin back to fullback and pick two wings. D-Mack is best as an impact sub. Mo’unga may turn out to be a long term option, but only seeing him once the structure has gone from the game means we are unlikely to find out.

[zer0]

On the bright side, Schmidt will be announcing early next week whether he continues with Ireland or not. The Irish seem to be resigned to his moving on, and returning to NZ would seem to be his preferred option. He also seems to suggest as much in recent press conferences. Assuming he returns to NZ, there's no SR positions available, and he won't be going to the NPC because, well, it's the NPC. That just leaves the All Blacks. I don't see him wanting to hitch his record on to Hansen's wagon -- who will have done his dash after 15 years, anyway -- and most definitely not Foster's. So it's head coach or bust.

With regards to assistants, Cotter would likely be one. When Cotter applied in 2012, it was with the understanding that Schmidt was to be his assistant. Cotter has also recently said he wants to return to NZ once he's finished with Montpelier in 2019. In terms of his second assistant, they'd likely be a defence coach given Schmidt a backs/attack coach, and Cotter a forwards coach. Andy Farrell's name has been mentioned, and I'd be fully supportive of his inclusion. Not least of all because it means we won't have to go up against him, but also because he's clearly the best in the business at the moment. There have been some questioning whether we'd want an Englishman in the All Blacks setup. While I agree that the head coach should be an NZ'er, I don't see why a sufficiently excellent assistant's nationality would be a problem. We did, after all, have an Australian as our skills coach for nearly a decade.

I was firmly aboard the Schmidt and Cotter (or Cotter/Schmidt, as it was then) for AB's coaches bandwagon in 2012. While it may be about eight years too late for my liking, it would be better late than never.

[Silvercloud]

I have to admit I'd be a bit queasy about Farrell.

[Eugene Wrayburn]

If you guys get Schmidt (and I presume you will, because no Union can surely cock things up enough to let the world's best coach slip from their grasp when he's a native and it's the only job left that he can possibly want to do) there's not much point in the rest of us turning up.

[zer0]

Well, no need to confront any possible angst over English involvement in the AB's, as Farrell will be taking over Ireland after the 2019 RWC. Schmidt, on the other hand, may not be coaching at all after 2019.

"I have decided to finish coaching and will prioritise family commitments after the RWC in 2019."

If that is the case, and he decided he didn't have enough time with his family and epileptic son while coaching Ireland in the 6N -- where their longest journey is hopping over to Italy -- I don't see how going on week long jaunts across the Pacific and Indian oceans as part of the RC will fit into that.

Thus my next hope/conspiracy is that he's simply not wanting to take the wind out of Jabba's Christmas proclamation regarding his coaching future.

[Lizard]

So if Shag and Schmidt are out, who then?

Cotter
Rennie
Foster?

[Digby]

If you guys get Schmidt (and I presume you will, because no Union can surely cock things up enough to let the world's best coach slip from their grasp when he's a native and it's the only job left that he can possibly want to do) there's not much point in the rest of us turning up.

Obviously there are factors beyond money, but coaching France with low expectations for a per annum salary of €1 million + must have some attractions

[zer0]

So if Shag and Schmidt are out, who then?

Cotter
Rennie
Foster?

They shot themselves in the foot by changing the rules in 2011 to say you needed test coaching experience as one reason to select Hansen over Cotter. Maybe even HC experience, I can't quite recall. If that's the case, then the realistic options are:

• Retain Hansen
• Gatland
• Cotter
• Foster (if HC experience isn't required)

That's it. Guys like Deans and Joseph would be theoretical, but unlikely, candidates, I think. But NZR could easily change the rules again, as I doubt many will remember that they were ever changed, let alone why they were changed in the first place. That would introduce Rennie and, maybe, Robinson. Though I think Robinson is too green at this stage.

Of those realistic (IMO) options, Hansen has been there long enough, Gatland burned a whole bunch of bridges when he left, Cotter may be retiring and Foster left a trail of devastation in the Waikato that was remedied the year after he left. Assuming he doesn't retire (something I think he'll do only if he doesn't end up with the AB's in some form), I'd go for Cotter. He has a good HC record, unlike Foster, and hasn't burned bridges, like Gatland has/did. Would then try and leverage his good relationship with Schmidt to try get him working even just part time as a 'technical assistant', or whatever, and properly introduce him into the fold whenever he feels comfortable enough.

But I have a sinking feeling it'll be more of Hansen. Hope I'm wrong though.

[Lizard]

I’d be happy with whoever can get Wayne Smith back.

[zer0]

Seems unlikely now, but a coaching team of Schmidt (HC & attack), Cotter (forwards), Smith (defence) would be pretty neat.