RWC prediction thread

[Shiny]

It gets really interesting if Scotland just beat Japan in a try fest. That would leave Ireland in a spot of bother.

I would be good but I think Scotland’s bums are squeaking a bit about facing Japan now.

[Lizard]

So far I am 15/18 (missed Jap v Ire, Uru v Fij, Fra v Arg. But I did get Wal v Aus).

Next lot:
France beats USA
NZ beats Canada
Fiji beats Georgia (hard to pick, this one - could be a draw)
Ireland beats Russia
SA beats Italy
Aus beats Uruguay
Eng beats Arg
Japan beats Samoa
NZ beats Namibia
Fra beats Tonga

[morepork]

RGs for the win.

[Sourdust]

France 40-10 USA
NZ 49-11 Canada
Fiji 33-23 Georgia
Ireland 51-6 Russia
SA 39-20 Italy
Aus 43-7 Uruguay
Eng 26-15 Arg
Japan 30-14 Samoa
NZ 68-10 Namibia
Fra 24-0 Tonga

[Lizard]

SA bt Can
Arg bt USA
Sco bt Russ
Wal bt Fiji
Aus bt Geo

[Puja]

I reckon US could surprise Argentina. They'd be looking at that as one of their two targetted games and, with Argentina demoralised and out of the running, I fancy an upset.

Puja

[Sourdust]

Still cruising along at "doing okay but not brilliant"

SA 43 - 9 Can
Arg 30 - 10 USA
Sco 45 - 6 Rus
Wal 31 - 18 Fij
Aus 45 - 10 Geo
NZ 37 - 9 Ita
Eng 28 - 12 Fra
Ire 34 - 13 Sam
Nam 12 - 25 Can
USA 10 - 19 Ton
Wal 65 - 14 Uru
Jap 29 - 19 Sco

[Sourdust]

Still cruising along at "doing okay but not brilliant"

Wal 31 - 18 Fij

Bloody post!

[Lizard]

NZ bt Ita
Eng bt Fra
Ire bt Sam
Can bt Nam
Ton bt USA
Wal bt Uru
Jap bt Sco

[Lizard]

Rule clarification: any matches cancelled due to weather will be disregarded for this contest, even if they are recorded as a draw for RWC purposes.

[Buggaluggs]

ABs dodged a bullet there

[Lizard]

NZ bt Ita
Eng bt Fra
Ire bt Sam
Can bt Nam
Ton bt USA
Wal bt Uru
Jap bt Sco

See? Told you.

[Renniks]

So, what upsets were there in the pool games

Japan beating Ireland
Uruguay beating Fiji

And, Japan beating Scotland * (Not a surprising upset, But Japan are tier 2!)

Oh, and games being cancelled upset lots of people!

[Hooky]

So, what upsets were there in the pool games

Japan beating Ireland
Uruguay beating Fiji

And, Japan beating Scotland * (Not a surprising upset, But Japan are tier 2!)

Oh, and games being cancelled upset lots of people!

Japan scotland wasn't an upset. Not even sure what the daft tier thing is about. Japan were and still are above Scotland in the world rankings

[Renniks]

That’s why I separated it. Scotland do get to play year on year against the best teams in the world - Japan don’t. So you’d expect both abilities to improve and investment to be greater. But Japan deserved the win and it wasn’t a surprise as such.

[Lizard]

I would say that Japan over Scotland would be considered an upset if viewed from before the tournament began (Japan were ranked 10th, Scotland 7th, 3.30 rankings points apart with home advantage considered to be worth 2.0 points) but not if viewed from the day before kickoff (Japan ranked 8th, Scotland 9th, 0.08 rankings points apart with home advantage considered to be worth 2.0 points)

[Lizard]

Anyway, now it gets trickier. I might change my mind on some of these before the weekend:

Eng to beat Aust (England are 6-0 v Oz since RWC2015)

NZ to beat Ireland (Ireland have never won a RWC QF, on the other hand, they are 2-1 since RWC2015)

Wales to beat France (Wales will be out for revenge for the 2011 SF, they're also 3-1 since RWC2015)

SA to beat Japan (but OMG I hope I'm wrong. Rassie now has a good amount of video tape to figure out how to beat Japan's speed and accuracy, and has the cattle to do it, but remember Brighton...and Shizuoka...and Yokohama...)

[cashead]

Right-o, the pointy end of the competition. Here we go, it is on like Donkey Kong.

QF1: England v. Australia - England. Australia haven't beaten England since that pool game in 2015, and I doubt they'll start now. Australia are a team that can turn it on when conditions are just right, but they're simply not going to beat England.

QF2: NZ v. Ireland - NZ. Ireland haven't seemed to have hit the heights you'd expect this tournament (although their win against Samoa was nothing to sneeze at). NZ to beat them, probably with a similar margin to the Springboks test earlier this tournament.

QF3: Wales v. France - Wales. France have sucked this tournament, and haven't looked like a team capable of progressing beyond the quarters.

QF4: Japan v. South Africa - South Africa. Heart says Japan, but let's face it, the quarterfinal against South Africa will be a bridge too far for them.

[Lizard]

I expect some incredibly cynical play from the Boks to counter the Japanese speed (and would have expected the same from NZ, had that been the match-up). Etzebeth in particular is likely to be hugely annoying all game, as will du Toit. They will need to judge it carefully though as the leniency that can be shown to the "better" side will I think be outweighed by the home crowd and recent form of Japan. The refereeing could be crucial.

And you do wonder how long Japan can play like men possessed without a wheel coming off somewhere.

[Lizard]

Results* so far (out of 37 pool matches):

Lizard: 37 attempts, 34 correct = 91.9% - only one to make a pick for every match.

Sourdust: 26 attempts, 25 correct = 67.6% of all matches, 96.2% of attempts - Started at Aus v Fiji, but cunningly made no picks from Sam v Rus to Sco v Sam before starting again, avoiding getting both Urug v Fiji and Jpn v Ire wrong, like most did.

Shiny: 19 attempts, 15 correct = 40.5% of all matches, 78.9% of attempts - dropped out after Sco v Sam except for an early pick of Fiji over Wales.

Stom: 16 attempts, 13 correct = 35.1 % of all matches, 81.3% of attempts - Started at Aus v Fiji, dropped out after Sco v Sam.

Scrumhead: 9 attempts, 6 correct = 16.2 % of all matches, 66.7% of attempts - started with Urug v Fiji and dropped out after Sco v Sam.

Danno: 6 attempts, 4 correct = 10.8% of all matches, 66.7% of attempts- Started at Aus v Fiji, dropped out after Eng v Ton.

Morepork: 1 attempts, 0 correct = 0% of all matches, 0% of attempts - Only picked Eng v Arg and got it wrong.

Puja: 1 attempts, 0 correct = 0% of all matches, 0% of attempts - Only picked USA v Arg and got it wrong.

*On a winner/loser basis, i.e. ignoring score/margin predictions

[Hooky]

Aus to beat england
NZ to beat Ireland
SA to beat Japan (by a couple of points after a cracking match)
Not going to call the other

[Lizard]

Aus to beat england
NZ to beat Ireland
SA to beat Japan (by a couple of points after a cracking match)
Not going to call the other

Pussy.

[Hooky]

Aus to beat england
NZ to beat Ireland
SA to beat Japan (by a couple of points after a cracking match)
Not going to call the other

Pussy.

Guilty

[Shiny]

Im back from holiday and have internet again so here my QF’s

QF1: England v. Australia - England, I think Australia are just too fractured plus they will lose players to cards for high tackles.

QF2: NZ v. Ireland - NZ. I can’t see past a NZ win. Ireland are too hot and cold for me at the moment.

QF3: Wales v. France - Wales. It depends which France team show up but even at full strength I think Wales have too much (this will be the closest game).

QF4: Japan v. South Africa - Japan. Japan are everyone’s new favourite second team and I fancy the upset against the big bullies of SA. If they were playing France I would fancy their odds even more.

[Sourdust]

Sourdust: 26 attempts, 25 correct = 67.6% of all matches, 96.2% of attempts - Started at Aus v Fiji, but cunningly made no picks from Sam v Rus to Sco v Sam before starting again, avoiding getting both Urug v Fiji and Jpn v Ire wrong, like most did.

My predictions for those games were cancelled, due to a severe case of wind.