COVID19

[Sandydragon]

ust got back from a trip to Mum's and back - she wants me to have the car so that I can get there in an emergency whilst she's in isolation; just her and the dog.

Made it feel way more like "goodbye" than "see you 3 months" - gave me a copy of her will, made sure I knew where the safe is, and what the code is; "let it slip" that she's got enough tramadol to last 6 months. She's a social animal, pillar of the community type, who's never home of an evening; and she and I both know that having a 6 month supply means she's got 3 months + a lethal dose; and that it will have taken her both time and pain to build up that stock.

Having a wobble right now.

Fucking hell mate, my heart goes out to you right now. This is going to be really tough, but more so for those on their own. My grandfather is still alive at the grand old age of 96 but he too is on his own and lives a long way from me. Which puts strain on my parents who aren’t young and have health issues. There are no easy answers here. Stay strong and hopefully it won’t take too long got get past this.

[Banquo]

ust got back from a trip to Mum's and back - she wants me to have the car so that I can get there in an emergency whilst she's in isolation; just her and the dog.

Made it feel way more like "goodbye" than "see you 3 months" - gave me a copy of her will, made sure I knew where the safe is, and what the code is; "let it slip" that she's got enough tramadol to last 6 months. She's a social animal, pillar of the community type, who's never home of an evening; and she and I both know that having a 6 month supply means she's got 3 months + a lethal dose; and that it will have taken her both time and pain to build up that stock.

Having a wobble right now.

Fucking hell mate, my heart goes out to you right now. This is going to be really tough, but more so for those on their own. My grandfather is still alive at the grand old age of 96 but he too is on his own and lives a long way from me. Which puts strain on my parents who aren’t young and have health issues. There are no easy answers here. Stay strong and hopefully it won’t take too long got get past this.

This- all the very best.

My wife's dad is 92 and likely hasn't got very long left, he's just got a lot of conditions you get with age; she's totally torn with not being able to see him before he goes vs maybe infecting him. On balance, she wants to spend some time with him, but its tearing her up. Me too, frankly, as he's been my second dad.

[Son of Mathonwy]

Only if the kids are in fact infected. Mell’s post below reinforces the need for real data. Nationalise the test, determine risk for frontline staff and if clear, let them do their jobs. Having this data in hand will allow a focus of resources to the most appropriate space. Formally qualified people are the new currency, and the distribution of that currency needs to be regulated.

Dr Brilliant (great name ) says:
"And three, maybe most important, we begin to see large numbers of people—in particular nurses, home health care providers, doctors, policemen, firemen, and teachers who have had the disease—are immune, and we have tested them to know that they are not infectious any longer. And we have a system that identifies them, either a concert wristband or a card with their photograph and some kind of a stamp on it. Then we can be comfortable sending our children back to school, because we know the teacher is not infectious."

So he seems to be advising that we don't send kids to school till we have some confidence that the teachers are not infected. Presumably we'd also want confidence that the children - especially those of medical workers - are not infected.

My suggestion would be:

1) Key worker child-minding should only be available to children where both parents are key workers,
2) Children and teachers should test negative before they can come to school in the first instance, then periodically (or randomly?) afterwards,
3) Children should be kept in small groups (which do not change from day to day) and not do activities which involve contact.

So you will almost certainly lose a raft of key workers in the NHS who will stay and look after their kids rather than lose the likely higher income of the non key worker (where there are partners). I'd lose 10% of my team (and have lost 5% already as schools have adopted your policy off their own bat) on top of the 15% already gone to social distancing and self isolation (who almost certainly are not infected tbh). There is no perfect way of doing this, but what is certain is that the NHS will need every hand it can get in the short term, and there is no time to test in the numbers you suggest.

My team have been pretty great so far, and we are about to completely change our delivery model to keep our patients ticking over whilst freeing up staff who can help free up beds and resources in the acutes and community. Been great to see mindset change with our people, who remain positive and determined to help.

Better to lose 10% of your team than for you all to go down with the virus. And your hospital too. Plus the workplaces of all the other keyworkers with their kids in the same place.

No one knows for sure what level of risk is acceptable but if we leave a gaping hole in the quarantine, we're asking for the whole thing to fail.

[Son of Mathonwy]

Better than those key workers possibly not being able to work. What would you do?

See my reply to morepork

Good job I posted the link to the interview to enable you to respond to my question

The problem is that if you don’t send the kids into school their parents might be removed from the front line response. The pros and cons have obviously been weighed up buy some big brains and this is the best solution. Mass testing is obviously an answer to a lot of issues. Now there is a test on the market that can tell whether you are currently or have previously been infected we will have even more info and answers.

With regards your three step plan:
A) from what I know this was the initial plan but was watered down under lobbying from various bodies
C) again from what I know speaking to local schools, this is the plan dependent on pupil: teacher ratios.

Big brains may have done the analysis but the decision has been made by (more accurately, forced on) Boris, after some considerable "dither and delay". So I have no confidence that this is the best solution.

Agreed, some parents will be removed from the frontline, but hopefully my suggestions would prevent the whole frontline from being infected by their kids.

A) ah, lobbyists, always a force for good,
C) hopefully people will do the most sensible thing within their control.

[Mellsblue]

See my reply to morepork

Good job I posted the link to the interview to enable you to respond to my question

The problem is that if you don’t send the kids into school their parents might be removed from the front line response. The pros and cons have obviously been weighed up buy some big brains and this is the best solution. Mass testing is obviously an answer to a lot of issues. Now there is a test on the market that can tell whether you are currently or have previously been infected we will have even more info and answers.

With regards your three step plan:
A) from what I know this was the initial plan but was watered down under lobbying from various bodies
C) again from what I know speaking to local schools, this is the plan dependent on pupil: teacher ratios.

Big brains may have done the analysis but the decision has been made by (more accurately, forced on) Boris, after some considerable "dither and delay". So I have no confidence that this is the best solution.

Agreed, some parents will be removed from the frontline, but hopefully my suggestions would prevent the whole frontline from being infected by their kids.

A) ah, lobbyists, always a force for good,
C) hopefully people will do the most sensible thing within their control.

I’m not sure about this dither and delay line actually being true. The bloke who authored the paper from Kings College upon which the UK and US plans are based reckons the self-isolation clamp downs have come pretty much at the correct time. The fact is we are a few weeks behind the likes of Italy, France and Spain and so will be a few weeks behind them on social distancing measures. There is also plenty of evidence submitted by behavioural psychologists stating that people will put up with only so many weeks of self-isolation before rebelling. It’s not China where the state machine can clamp down or Japan where society is habitually compliant. In one of my early posts there is a link to all the scientific evidence in the hands of the govt. Have a look, there is some very interesting points made on the closure of schools. Of course, there is no complete consensus but, from what I’ve read, they seem to be getting most of it right. That said, I think all would admit the lack of testing was a mistake but there are reasons for this beyond just deciding not to do it to any great extent.

With regards point A), from what I know the NHS were one of the bodies lobbying for it to be one parent/carer. The plan seems to be all hands on deck until you’re symptomatic and that point you self-isolate. Having people sat at home just in case their kid might give it to them isn’t really an option. There’s also the point that most frontline staff will hardly be at home over the next few weeks and months. A friend up here runs a local A&E. He was at home more than usual this week before expecting/anticipating he’ll pretty much have to live at the hospital for the foreseeable.

[Mellsblue]

ust got back from a trip to Mum's and back - she wants me to have the car so that I can get there in an emergency whilst she's in isolation; just her and the dog.

Made it feel way more like "goodbye" than "see you 3 months" - gave me a copy of her will, made sure I knew where the safe is, and what the code is; "let it slip" that she's got enough tramadol to last 6 months. She's a social animal, pillar of the community type, who's never home of an evening; and she and I both know that having a 6 month supply means she's got 3 months + a lethal dose; and that it will have taken her both time and pain to build up that stock.

Having a wobble right now.

All the best to her and you. My mum is in a similar position, without the tramadol and dog. There have been some tears this week. We are being naughty for Mother’s Day tomorrow but then she is in lockdown. For such a social and active woman it will be incredibly hard. We have a few plans in place to keep her spirits up/sane but it’s a big worry.

[Banquo]

Dr Brilliant (great name ) says:
"And three, maybe most important, we begin to see large numbers of people—in particular nurses, home health care providers, doctors, policemen, firemen, and teachers who have had the disease—are immune, and we have tested them to know that they are not infectious any longer. And we have a system that identifies them, either a concert wristband or a card with their photograph and some kind of a stamp on it. Then we can be comfortable sending our children back to school, because we know the teacher is not infectious."

So he seems to be advising that we don't send kids to school till we have some confidence that the teachers are not infected. Presumably we'd also want confidence that the children - especially those of medical workers - are not infected.

My suggestion would be:

1) Key worker child-minding should only be available to children where both parents are key workers,
2) Children and teachers should test negative before they can come to school in the first instance, then periodically (or randomly?) afterwards,
3) Children should be kept in small groups (which do not change from day to day) and not do activities which involve contact.

So you will almost certainly lose a raft of key workers in the NHS who will stay and look after their kids rather than lose the likely higher income of the non key worker (where there are partners). I'd lose 10% of my team (and have lost 5% already as schools have adopted your policy off their own bat) on top of the 15% already gone to social distancing and self isolation (who almost certainly are not infected tbh). There is no perfect way of doing this, but what is certain is that the NHS will need every hand it can get in the short term, and there is no time to test in the numbers you suggest.

My team have been pretty great so far, and we are about to completely change our delivery model to keep our patients ticking over whilst freeing up staff who can help free up beds and resources in the acutes and community. Been great to see mindset change with our people, who remain positive and determined to help.

Better to lose 10% of your team than for you all to go down with the virus. And your hospital too. Plus the workplaces of all the other keyworkers with their kids in the same place.

No one knows for sure what level of risk is acceptable but if we leave a gaping hole in the quarantine, we're asking for the whole thing to fail.

Given you have no idea of the environment or indeed locality I work in, and given that you've just ignored that this is in addition to the folks already off (10% for up to three months) I'm not sure how you can be so definitive. Staff are vitally needed now (I see Mells has made and expanded on that point to save me saying it)

One thing I think is missing, is a more localised set of sub strategies.

[Banquo]

Good job I posted the link to the interview to enable you to respond to my question

The problem is that if you don’t send the kids into school their parents might be removed from the front line response. The pros and cons have obviously been weighed up buy some big brains and this is the best solution. Mass testing is obviously an answer to a lot of issues. Now there is a test on the market that can tell whether you are currently or have previously been infected we will have even more info and answers.

With regards your three step plan:
A) from what I know this was the initial plan but was watered down under lobbying from various bodies
C) again from what I know speaking to local schools, this is the plan dependent on pupil: teacher ratios.

Big brains may have done the analysis but the decision has been made by (more accurately, forced on) Boris, after some considerable "dither and delay". So I have no confidence that this is the best solution.

Agreed, some parents will be removed from the frontline, but hopefully my suggestions would prevent the whole frontline from being infected by their kids.

A) ah, lobbyists, always a force for good,
C) hopefully people will do the most sensible thing within their control.

I’m not sure about this dither and delay line actually being true. The bloke who authored the paper from Kings College upon which the UK and US plans are based reckons the self-isolation clamp downs have come pretty much at the correct time. The fact is we are a few weeks behind the likes of Italy, France and Spain and so will be a few weeks behind them on social distancing measures. There is also plenty of evidence submitted by behavioural psychologists stating that people will put up with only so many weeks of self-isolation before rebelling. It’s not China where the state machine can clamp down or Japan where society is habitually compliant. In one of my early posts there is a link to all the scientific evidence in the hands of the govt. Have a look, there is some very interesting points made on the closure of schools. Of course, there is no complete consensus but, from what I’ve read, they seem to be getting most of it right. That said, I think all would admit the lack of testing was a mistake but there are reasons for this beyond just deciding not to do it to any great extent.

With regards point A), from what I know the NHS were one of the bodies lobbying for it to be one parent/carer. The plan seems to be all hands on deck until you’re symptomatic and that point you self-isolate. Having people sat at home just in case their kid might give it to them isn’t really an option. There’s also the point that most frontline staff will hardly be at home over the next few weeks and months. A friend up here runs a local A&E. He was at home more than usual this week before expecting/anticipating he’ll pretty much have to live at the hospital for the foreseeable.

Excellent piece in the Times from one of the SAGE guys, Sir James Farrar head of the Wellcome trust.

[morepork]

Hang tight my brothers. Be safe, be strong. My mother in law in Italy has come down with it. Powerless to do anything about it.

Big aroha to all.

[Banquo]

Hang tight my brothers. Be safe, be strong. My mother in law in Italy has come down with it. Powerless to do anything about it.

Big aroha to all.

Yes to all this and good luck to all. Lay our cudgels aside and do good.

[Sandydragon]

Hang tight my brothers. Be safe, be strong. My mother in law in Italy has come down with it. Powerless to do anything about it.

Big aroha to all.

All the best bro. Thoughts and prayers with your family.

[Mellsblue]

Hang tight my brothers. Be safe, be strong. My mother in law in Italy has come down with it. Powerless to do anything about it.

Big aroha to all.

It’s the powerless bit that gets me. Stay strong mate. Big areola to you too.

[Which Tyler]

http://buzzfeed.com/alexwickham/10-days ... s-approach

[Banquo]

http://buzzfeed.com/alexwickham/10-days ... s-approach

interesting but not surprising tbh

[Donny osmond]

Good luck to all, and your families.

Full lockdown by middle of next week I reckon, Johnson and Sturgeon both heavily hinting at it in recent days.

Sent from my CPH1951 using Tapatalk

[Mellsblue]

Big brains may have done the analysis but the decision has been made by (more accurately, forced on) Boris, after some considerable "dither and delay". So I have no confidence that this is the best solution.

Agreed, some parents will be removed from the frontline, but hopefully my suggestions would prevent the whole frontline from being infected by their kids.

A) ah, lobbyists, always a force for good,
C) hopefully people will do the most sensible thing within their control.

I’m not sure about this dither and delay line actually being true. The bloke who authored the paper from Kings College upon which the UK and US plans are based reckons the self-isolation clamp downs have come pretty much at the correct time. The fact is we are a few weeks behind the likes of Italy, France and Spain and so will be a few weeks behind them on social distancing measures. There is also plenty of evidence submitted by behavioural psychologists stating that people will put up with only so many weeks of self-isolation before rebelling. It’s not China where the state machine can clamp down or Japan where society is habitually compliant. In one of my early posts there is a link to all the scientific evidence in the hands of the govt. Have a look, there is some very interesting points made on the closure of schools. Of course, there is no complete consensus but, from what I’ve read, they seem to be getting most of it right. That said, I think all would admit the lack of testing was a mistake but there are reasons for this beyond just deciding not to do it to any great extent.

With regards point A), from what I know the NHS were one of the bodies lobbying for it to be one parent/carer. The plan seems to be all hands on deck until you’re symptomatic and that point you self-isolate. Having people sat at home just in case their kid might give it to them isn’t really an option. There’s also the point that most frontline staff will hardly be at home over the next few weeks and months. A friend up here runs a local A&E. He was at home more than usual this week before expecting/anticipating he’ll pretty much have to live at the hospital for the foreseeable.

Excellent piece in the Times from one of the SAGE guys, Sir James Farrar head of the Wellcome trust.

It’s a good piece and neatly sums up the situation and the response to it. Philip Aldrick’s column in the business section is also very illuminating, if from a very different angle.

[Mellsblue]

http://buzzfeed.com/alexwickham/10-days ... s-approach

interesting but not surprising tbh

Yep. I honestly don’t know how anyone expects the response on this to be 100% correct. Everyone is flying by the seat of their pants and even the experts don’t agree. If I were feeling flippant, which I am, my point biggest takeaway is that we should blame experts and liberal elite Londoners. How times have changed.

[Galfon]

Lockdown..hope so; i'm the only person in my extended family still going in to work, owd git too...(about 25% have disappeared already to get isolated, non diagnosed.)
For this reason, visting Mater, late eighties major cancer surgery and fractured arm last year, living on her own 100 mi south, put off for Mother's day & beyond.
Not nice dilemma as per others posted - the good thing is villagers have bombarded her with calls and dropping food off on the step.
Elsewhere #1 Desperate times,desperate crimes ffs. it was only a matter of time
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/202 ... und-in-van

#2 Desperate times, desparate dash
'irresponsible' is the cry...not sure 100% of cases will be such but into lockdown/essential only, fair enough.
.https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/uk-scotl ... s-51990534

[Mellsblue]

I’m told there are similar scenes in the Yorkshire Dales, be it day trippers, camper vaners, second homers or I’ve got a shed load of money and I want to rent your holiday let for three monthers. The local reaction is mainly that they should all **** off. So much so that the Yorkshire Dales Park Authority has put out messages on social media politely asking people to **** off.
Localish folks like me know the nice quiet spots where there aren’t enough proper locals telling you to **** off to be truly scared you’ll be run through with a pitch fork.
Sadly my favourite middle of nowhere boozer, perfectly situated 30mins on foot from the end of the volunteer run (mini)bus service, has turned itself into a commune for those I’ve got a shed load of money and want to rent your holiday let for three monthers who can’t be bothered to cook or change their own bed sheets. ****s.

[Digby]

Today will be a decent test of how many people take heed of advice Vs going to see their mothers, no doubt taking heed of the notion we make our own luck. Many making their own luck will then whine about the government not doing enough, go team UK

[Mellsblue]

It’s tricky. My mum is 72, goes for long walks in the Dales, goes to yoga and aerobics classes and yet I’m being told not to see her. Her sister is 69, over weight and unfit yet I could go visit her. All that said, I’m plucking up the courage to call my mum and tell her she’s no longer invited for lunch. F**k you coronavirus.

[Donny osmond]

On the one hand, no one has dealt with any of this before and I very much doubt if infection rate would be vastly different if our govt had chosen different advice to follow.

On the other hand, we did watch this infection coming, via China, SE Asia and Italy and it was only when it got here that anyone started thinking about extra ventilators or PPE for hospital staff. My wife (consultant anaesthetist) knows 2 ENT surgeons in London who are currently on ecmo and fighting for their lives (youngish, healthy, no underlying conditions) due to treating covid patients without any PPE. That is unforgivable.

As a teacher/doctor household, we've seen first hand the absence of leadership at every level from the top down. Until last week, the only answers put in place have been thought up and implemented by front line staff, all these 6 figure salary, BMA qualified council leaders and politicians have been worse than useless, frozen in the headlights and utterly giving the lie to the idea that their inflated salaries, ludicrous expenses and gold plated pensions somehow reflect their skill set. When this is all over there needs to be something of a reckoning.

Sent from my CPH1951 using Tapatalk

[Mellsblue]

Have to agree that infrastructure, equipment etc planning seems to have been woeful. There seemed to be heads in sand across most of the world. Whether it truly was ignoring the inevitable hoping it would go away, a paucity of evidence of what the virus truly was or a combination of both, as you say, things should change once we’re through this.....but I doubt they will. I’ve now read two pieces from eminent scientists who have been warning of this for a few years.....

[Sandydragon]

Good luck to all, and your families.

Full lockdown by middle of next week I reckon, Johnson and Sturgeon both heavily hinting at it in recent days.

Sent from my CPH1951 using Tapatalk

Very likely. Too many non essential shops open and some holidays parks etc.

[Sandydragon]

On the one hand, no one has dealt with any of this before and I very much doubt if infection rate would be vastly different if our govt had chosen different advice to follow.

On the other hand, we did watch this infection coming, via China, SE Asia and Italy and it was only when it got here that anyone started thinking about extra ventilators or PPE for hospital staff. My wife (consultant anaesthetist) knows 2 ENT surgeons in London who are currently on ecmo and fighting for their lives (youngish, healthy, no underlying conditions) due to treating covid patients without any PPE. That is unforgivable.

As a teacher/doctor household, we've seen first hand the absence of leadership at every level from the top down. Until last week, the only answers put in place have been thought up and implemented by front line staff, all these 6 figure salary, BMA qualified council leaders and politicians have been worse than useless, frozen in the headlights and utterly giving the lie to the idea that their inflated salaries, ludicrous expenses and gold plated pensions somehow reflect their skill set. When this is all over there needs to be something of a reckoning.

Sent from my CPH1951 using Tapatalk

It’s odd how the virus is targeting those with underlying health issues but also occasionally seems to hit otherwise healthy people. Could it be undiagnosed health issues for some but with medical staff they are being exposed to greater quantities of the virus?