COVID19

[morepork]

Technically, does virulent mean 1) harmful to those infected or 2) easily transmissible, or both?

Yes, agreed that SARs was less effective in terms of spreading itself, which helped our (ie humanity's) efforts to contain it.

However, had other nations acted as South Korea, or China or Singapore did, the need for a vaccine would be drastically less.

Virulent = good at infecting and reproducing. Covid > SARS in this context.

SK and Singapore will still need a vaccine. We all will. Those places have bought some time for their infrastructure to deal with the situation in the interim.

Thanks. Definitions on the internet were very hazy on that point, mostly giving both as possible meanings.

SK and Singapore will need an effective vaccine in the sense that it will allow things to go back to normal for them - they would obviously use one as soon as it materializes. But they haven't needed, and don't need one to prevent mass deaths from Covid19. Their existing measures have done that.

Depends if they ever want to travel or receive visitors/goods from the rest of the world. Can't go on for ever.

[Which Tyler]

Fuck

Soon we'll start “temporary interment”. This likely will be done by using a NYC park for burials (yes you read that right). Trenches will be dug for 10 caskets in a line. It will be done in a dignified, orderly--and temporary--manner. But it will be tough for NYers to take. 9/

[Donny osmond]

Ha! Suck it covid 19...

Also seen today a breathing technique that succeeds where modern medicine fails and completely helps get over coronavirus.

PLUS it's all rubbish anyway, as it's just a distraction before the main event in 3 weeks time

https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/coron ... b7049b.jpg[/img]

Sent from my CPH1951 using Tapatalk

[Son of Mathonwy]

Virulent = good at infecting and reproducing. Covid > SARS in this context.

SK and Singapore will still need a vaccine. We all will. Those places have bought some time for their infrastructure to deal with the situation in the interim.

Thanks. Definitions on the internet were very hazy on that point, mostly giving both as possible meanings.

SK and Singapore will need an effective vaccine in the sense that it will allow things to go back to normal for them - they would obviously use one as soon as it materializes. But they haven't needed, and don't need one to prevent mass deaths from Covid19. Their existing measures have done that.

Depends if they ever want to travel or receive visitors/goods from the rest of the world. Can't go on for ever.

Yeah, I totally agree they will be in a massive hurry to get it, primarily for economic reasons.

Your last statement sounds dangerously like "we all really need a vaccine, therefore it will be possible to make one". (I know you know this as well as I do, but...)There's no connection between our needs and what is scientifically possible. Sure, I think we will develop one - no one seems to be saying it's like the search for a HIV vaccine - but we don't know for sure, and the wait for an effective, safe and mass-producable vaccine might be a long one.

[Son of Mathonwy]

They didn’t have an entirety new virus, technically. And they had data of sorts re SARS. They acted appropriately given the data that was forthcoming. Is this a better response than the West? Absolutely yes.

Fair points!

My guess is that the Chinese numbers are no more inaccurate than ours. This is based on a few known facts and some supposition. Even internal movement in China is strictly limited and monitored. Pretty much every company is really an organ of the Chinese state (or is obliged to turn the vast amount of data that they inevitably collect over to the state). And now the supposition: the Chinese have the capacity to monitor at least the GPS of a large number of phones and see where those people go and who they meet with. I doubt they can do it all the time for everyone as that's just too much data, but fewer than 10k people in an emergency with their manufacturing superiority across the world at stake? Sure, I reckon that is doable. All of these would make track and trace a piece of piss. That and a willingness to ruthless enforce a shutdown without exceptions.

I completely agree that South Korea and Singapore have handled this very well.

Who else has performed that well - is it just western governments that are screwing this up? I suspect those who are doing well have learnt lessons from previous epidemics (which is perfectly fair) but that doesn't apply globally. My point originally made to SoM below was that its not just western governments who have screwed up their response, globally many countries are struggling. 2 countries who have performed well is an outlier not a trend (albeit we should be learning from them in the future).

As for China, they responded well when they eventually took the outbreak seriously. Talk me through how undermining the credibility of the doctor who first raise the alarm is acting responsibly though? Perhaps if they had taken him seriously then many lives (including his) could have been saved?

Looking at yesterday's figures, the top 30 countries ranked for Covid 19 deaths per 1M population showed all places other than 13th (Iran), 18th (USA) and 29th (Bahamas) taken up by European countries or overseas territories of European countries. So only 1 non-western country. Their deaths per 1M pop were:
1) San Marino 943
2) Spain 270
3) Italy 263
4) Andorra 233
5) Belgium 125
6) France 124
7) Netherlands 103
8) Sint Maarten 93
9) Switzerland 83
10) UK 73
11) Luxembourg 58
12) Saint Martin 52
13) Iran 43
14) Sweden 40
15) Channel Islands 35
16) Ireland 32
17) Denmark 31
18) USA 29
19) Portugal 29
20) Liechtenstein 26
21) Turks and Caicos 26
22) Monaco 25
23) Austria 23
24) Germany 19
25) Guadeloupe 17
26) Cayman Islands 15
27) Norway 13
28) Slovenia 13
29) Bahamas 13
30) Iceland 12

The real outlier here, the only European country that might have a real handle on this (although that might be a matter of time, I guess) is the happiest country on Earth:
51) Finland 5

By comparison, significant territories in the Far East:
55) S. Korea 4
65) China 2
69) Malaysia 2
81) Philippines 1
94) Japan 0.7
95) Indonesia 0.7
101) Hong Kong 0.5
115) Thailand 0.3
123) Taiwan 0.2

So it's clear that the West - to be precise, Europe and the USA - are worse to a staggering degree - several orders of magnitude - than the Far East.

[Sandydragon]

Which of those countries have the best health care systems where sick people are more likely to be identified and treated, and their deaths recorded properly?

Do any of those other countries have the same degrees of international travel as the European ones you list?

Belarus officially has no COVID cases at all. None. And their leader's official line is to spend more time in agriculture. Brazil's leader has argued that its all a load of bollocks - how much trust do we place on information coming out of his country?

We also need to facto in relative ages of the populace.

SO except for South Korea and Singapore, which have been extremely efificnet in reacting to this, what other standout reactions have there been?

[morepork]

Boris moved to the ICU.

[Sandydragon]

Boris moved to the ICU.

You beat me to it. Love him or hate him, on a human level
I’m sure we will all wish him, and everyone else, a speedy recovery.

That does mean that Dominic Raab is now in charge.

[Galfon]

Boris moved to the ICU.

around 50:50 generally with this one - but why was he still taking the red box up until this ?, he's still hooman..drop everything man and let your body do it's utmost.

[canta_brian]

Boris moved to the ICU.

around 50:50 generally with this one - but why was he still taking the red box up until this ?, he's still hooman..drop everything man and let your body do it's utmost.

Heard today that he had childhood pneumonia. That should have him in the high risk group that the government was advising to self isolate for 12 weeks. Did he think that it didn’t count if you had been to the right school and college or something?

[paddy no 11]

Morepork what's the verdict on gallo? I read a book by kary mullis 20 years ago and he was fairly scathing of gallo. Maybe theyre just 2 very different scientists?

[Mellsblue]

Boris moved to the ICU.

around 50:50 generally with this one - but why was he still taking the red box up until this ?, he's still hooman..drop everything man and let your body do it's utmost.

Heard today that he had childhood pneumonia. That should have him in the high risk group that the government was advising to self isolate for 12 weeks. Did he think that it didn’t count if you had been to the right school and college or something?

I had childhood pneumonia, and a pretty bad case at that, and, due to that, I now have bronchiectisis. When I spoke to my doctor I was only advised to social distance as much as possible and they had no idea of my schooling or my college. Regardless, he’s the PM I’m sure he felt the need to carry on with the day job.

[Son of Mathonwy]

Which of those countries have the best health care systems where sick people are more likely to be identified and treated, and their deaths recorded properly?

Do any of those other countries have the same degrees of international travel as the European ones you list?

Belarus officially has no COVID cases at all. None. And their leader's official line is to spend more time in agriculture. Brazil's leader has argued that its all a load of bollocks - how much trust do we place on information coming out of his country?

We also need to facto in relative ages of the populace.

SO except for South Korea and Singapore, which have been extremely efificnet in reacting to this, what other standout reactions have there been?

You can look into the details if you like - no doubt there are variations in healthcare systems, interconnectedness, ages and various other things - but the differences between the Western and Far Eastern countries in my last post are so stark that, prima facie, they prove my point.

Apart from SK and Singapore? China, HK.


My point not to bash the West. It's to show that we, the UK, and many other countries (which happen to be in the West), are doing a staggeringly worse job of dealing with this virus - both in terms of human lives and economics - than several other countries (which happen to be in the Far East).

So we could have done much better. And could still do better if we adopted their tactics.

[morepork]

Morepork what's the verdict on gallo? I read a book by kary mullis 20 years ago and he was fairly scathing of gallo. Maybe theyre just 2 very different scientists?

I mean, I wouldn't know personally, but he is seen as a bit of a cunt, but a respected cunt nonetheless. His role in showing HIV causes AIDS was pretty central. Mullis was a supporter of another virologist that claimed HIV was not the cause of AIDS (https://science.sciencemag.org/content/239/4847/1485).

[paddy no 11]

Yeah one thing that struck me was gallo promised a vaccine for aids within 8 months of identifying it mullis said it would never happen......

Let's see what happens with his latest pronouncement

[morepork]

Yeah one thing that struck me was gallo promised a vaccine for aids within 8 months of identifying it mullis said it would never happen......

Let's see what happens with his latest pronouncement

It might be the TB vaccine observation.

[Sandydragon]

Which of those countries have the best health care systems where sick people are more likely to be identified and treated, and their deaths recorded properly?

Do any of those other countries have the same degrees of international travel as the European ones you list?

Belarus officially has no COVID cases at all. None. And their leader's official line is to spend more time in agriculture. Brazil's leader has argued that its all a load of bollocks - how much trust do we place on information coming out of his country?

We also need to facto in relative ages of the populace.

SO except for South Korea and Singapore, which have been extremely efificnet in reacting to this, what other standout reactions have there been?

You can look into the details if you like - no doubt there are variations in healthcare systems, interconnectedness, ages and various other things - but the differences between the Western and Far Eastern countries in my last post are so stark that, prima facie, they prove my point.

Apart from SK and Singapore? China, HK.


My point not to bash the West. It's to show that we, the UK, and many other countries (which happen to be in the West), are doing a staggeringly worse job of dealing with this virus - both in terms of human lives and economics - than several other countries (which happen to be in the Far East).

So we could have done much better. And could still do better if we adopted their tactics.

We all could have done better if we had prepared like South Korea and Singapore. That’s not in question. But I don’t think this is just a western problem, it’s a problem for all countries which haven’t suffered from SARS or other epidemics and thus haven’t learn the lessons.

[Eugene Wrayburn]

So you now accept that many countries did better and mainly those of the Far East. Which is the reverse of your position as we came in. The lessons of SARS weren't locked away in a box. Every country had access to the information.

[morepork]

So you now accept that many countries did better and mainly those of the Far East. Which is the reverse of your position as we came in. The lessons of SARS weren't locked away in a box. Every country had access to the information.

Pretty much.

[Son of Mathonwy]

You can look into the details if you like - no doubt there are variations in healthcare systems, interconnectedness, ages and various other things - but the differences between the Western and Far Eastern countries in my last post are so stark that, prima facie, they prove my point.

Apart from SK and Singapore? China, HK.


My point not to bash the West. It's to show that we, the UK, and many other countries (which happen to be in the West), are doing a staggeringly worse job of dealing with this virus - both in terms of human lives and economics - than several other countries (which happen to be in the Far East).

So we could have done much better. And could still do better if we adopted their tactics.

We all could have done better if we had prepared like South Korea and Singapore. That’s not in question. But I don’t think this is just a western problem, it’s a problem for all countries which haven’t suffered from SARS or other epidemics and thus haven’t learn the lessons.

It didn't have to be a western problem, but the numbers show that that's what it is, at least right now. If western countries had adopted South Korea's methods (which we were aware of, we could see it happening in advance of the virus getting a foothold here) it would not be a western problem.

Countries outside the West may well perform as badly, or worse, as the virus spreads across the globe. Hopefully they can see how much more successful the SK tactics have been and will adopt them. Or they can be as complacent as we have been and also suffer large death tolls and economic shutdown.

[cashead]

So you now accept that many countries did better and mainly those of the Far East. Which is the reverse of your position as we came in. The lessons of SARS weren't locked away in a box. Every country had access to the information.

Literally anything would have been a better way to handle covid-19, but no, not with de Pfeffel. Can't be fuckin' havin' that.

[Sandydragon]

So you now accept that many countries did better and mainly those of the Far East. Which is the reverse of your position as we came in. The lessons of SARS weren't locked away in a box. Every country had access to the information.

I’ve never suggested anything other than South Korea and Singapore have led the way in managing this.

The lessons ofnSARS were available, didn’t suggest they weren’t, but if you are badly affected by an experience you are more likely to learn from it. Without SARS would South Korea have reacted like it did? I doubt it.

[Mellsblue]

So you now accept that many countries did better and mainly those of the Far East. Which is the reverse of your position as we came in. The lessons of SARS weren't locked away in a box. Every country had access to the information.

Literally anything would have been a better way to handle covid-19, but no, not with de Pfeffel. Can't be fuckin' havin' that.

I didn’t realise he was in charge of the responses in Italy, Spain and France, all of which are currently in a worse position than we are.

[canta_brian]

https://vac-lshtm.shinyapps.io/ncov_vaccine_landscape/

Just for keeping up to date with possible vaccine developments

[cashead]

So you now accept that many countries did better and mainly those of the Far East. Which is the reverse of your position as we came in. The lessons of SARS weren't locked away in a box. Every country had access to the information.

Literally anything would have been a better way to handle covid-19, but no, not with de Pfeffel. Can't be fuckin' havin' that.

I didn’t realise he was in charge of the responses in Italy, Spain and France, all of which are currently in a worse position than we are.

Feel free to point out where I was suggesting Johnson had anything to do with Italy, Spain or France's responses. Go on, I'll wait.

And hey, the UK government had the opportunity to front-foot it on their doorstep, and they sure as fuck failed to learn anything from watching the clusterfuck that was Italy.

Don't mind me, I'm just gonna sit back, and enjoy watching the curve flatten in my neck of the woods while I'm in quarantine.