COVID19

[Sandydragon]

If we get to the stage where it becomes clear that no vaccine or hard immunity is going to happen due to rapid mutation then there are hard conversations to happen. It seems to me that we will need to go back to more or less normal and just accept that more people will die. Yes there will need to be measures to limit that a bit but it won't be social distancing because it simply isn't sensibly possible. The best we can hope for is better handwashing and a culture of mask wearing. Anything else just isn't viable. The government would not be able to borrow enough to subsidise every business which would be affected (which is every business that has people). That is not to say that there shouldn't be some government assistance but the idea that they'd be subsidising rugby is fanciful.

Damn right. Any pro sport needs to look after itself. I know there are people who have jobs in this sector who aren't earning megabucks, but there re more deserving targets for the government funding available. If pro sport cannot survive then so be it.

[Sandydragon]

If we get to the stage where it becomes clear that no vaccine or hard immunity is going to happen due to rapid mutation then there are hard conversations to happen. It seems to me that we will need to go back to more or less normal and just accept that more people will die. Yes there will need to be measures to limit that a bit but it won't be social distancing because it simply isn't sensibly possible. The best we can hope for is better handwashing and a culture of mask wearing. Anything else just isn't viable. The government would not be able to borrow enough to subsidise every business which would be affected (which is every business that has people). That is not to say that there shouldn't be some government assistance but the idea that they'd be subsidising rugby is fanciful.

This makes sense to me, but it begs the question how long do we wait? An effective way of being immune might not be available for years, the virus might (prob will, already has??) mutate, etc so how long do we wait before simply accepting a higher mortality as a new baseline and trying to get society moving again?

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There are some signs that patience is already running out. I don't think the government can keep the lockdown in place for more than another month (2 max)or so before it becomes very hard to enforce. At that point many businesses will be going under and I suspect the daily death rates will be very low and there will be a lotto pressure to get some kind of normality back.

Reading some of the comments in the media over a 70+ continued lockdown (plus those who are vulnerable) and its clear that nothing will be popular and enforcement will be very hard indeed. I also don't see how a return to normal can happen until children are back in school or nursery. Otherwise much of the workforce is going to be looking after kids. There is no easy solution to this and ai guarantee someone will lose out and be pissed off as a result.

[fivepointer]

This is very good about plotting a way out of this crisis - https://www.theguardian.com/education/2 ... he-science

"It is understandable that the government is focusing on short-term decisions about the pandemic, and gratifying that they aim to follow “the science” (ie data and evidence). Much of this science involves epidemiological, medical, engineering and technological capabilities.

But it is important to also focus on how to address many of the social and economic challenges in the wake of the pandemic: we need “science” in the broadest sense of the word"

[fivepointer]

Good thread about the 100K test target and why it fails to address key concerns -https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1255 ... 32545.html (see @ChrisCEOHopson)

Test, trace and isolate is the way forward and testing on a large scale needs to support that. Just how far the Govt are in making this a reality needs to be revealed.

[Banquo]

Good thread about the 100K test target and why it fails to address key concerns -https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1255 ... 32545.html (see @ChrisCEOHopson)

Test, trace and isolate is the way forward and testing on a large scale needs to support that. Just how far the Govt are in making this a reality needs to be revealed.

That's why PHE are trying to recruit 18k staff and the app is being developed, isn't it? I think they need to find a treatment as well, and actually find out what the germans are doing, as their intensive care survival rate looks to be way higher- maybe an earlier admission and stratified treatment combo?

There is also a general uplifting of the nation's health required.

[Banquo]

This is very good about plotting a way out of this crisis - https://www.theguardian.com/education/2 ... he-science

"It is understandable that the government is focusing on short-term decisions about the pandemic, and gratifying that they aim to follow “the science” (ie data and evidence). Much of this science involves epidemiological, medical, engineering and technological capabilities.

But it is important to also focus on how to address many of the social and economic challenges in the wake of the pandemic: we need “science” in the broadest sense of the word"

Yes, that is good. Massive cultural shift in our politics needed to take advantage of this; i do wonder about that phrase of asking the experts the right questions, and whether that has applied in say, SAGE.

[Son of Mathonwy]

If we get to the stage where it becomes clear that no vaccine or hard immunity is going to happen due to rapid mutation then there are hard conversations to happen. It seems to me that we will need to go back to more or less normal and just accept that more people will die. Yes there will need to be measures to limit that a bit but it won't be social distancing because it simply isn't sensibly possible. The best we can hope for is better handwashing and a culture of mask wearing. Anything else just isn't viable. The government would not be able to borrow enough to subsidise every business which would be affected (which is every business that has people). That is not to say that there shouldn't be some government assistance but the idea that they'd be subsidising rugby is fanciful.

It's important to recognise that this is very much worst case, and not what scientists expect to happen. The general expectation is that a vaccine or effective treatment (ie one that keeps most people out of hospital) will be found in the next 1-2 years. So extreme measures in society are most likely a medium term thing, and in particular that would mean that certain sectors would only be unprofitable during this period. Even herd immunity (if it occurs) would eventually bring down the need for extreme measures (although the timescale for this very much depends on how many have had the virus to date ... for the UK, is it in the 100s of thousands or in the millions?).

But if worst case does come to pass, this would mean that without extreme measures we'd be back in the current situation every time a different strain enters the population ie a choice between lockdown and 100s of thousands of deaths & NHS overwhelmed (and who knows what cumulative damage repeated infections could do to people's lungs and other organs?).

Agreed, they wouldn't be subsidising rugby - I never suggested they would. Big salary reductions would be needed.

NB more important than any of the workplace distancing measures are the basic methods:
test (targeted and random)*, contact trace**, isolate.

* testing new arrivals in the country would be important. The government isn't interested in this.

** why it's taken till the end of April for the government to realise they need to hire a LOT of contact tracers I do not know.

[Son of Mathonwy]

Good thread about the 100K test target and why it fails to address key concerns -https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1255 ... 32545.html (see @ChrisCEOHopson)

Test, trace and isolate is the way forward and testing on a large scale needs to support that. Just how far the Govt are in making this a reality needs to be revealed.

That's why PHE are trying to recruit 18k staff and the app is being developed, isn't it? I think they need to find a treatment as well, and actually find out what the germans are doing, as their intensive care survival rate looks to be way higher- maybe an earlier admission and stratified treatment combo?

There is also a general uplifting of the nation's health required.

But why has it taken so long for the government to realise that 18k staff are needed? They should have been aggressively expanding their contact tracing capacity from the beginning. It goes hand in hand with testing (it even can operate based on symptoms alone, when tests are scarce). And why have they shown no interest in involving existing local health contact tracers (who work on sexually transmitted diseases)?

[Banquo]

Good thread about the 100K test target and why it fails to address key concerns -https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1255 ... 32545.html (see @ChrisCEOHopson)

Test, trace and isolate is the way forward and testing on a large scale needs to support that. Just how far the Govt are in making this a reality needs to be revealed.

That's why PHE are trying to recruit 18k staff and the app is being developed, isn't it? I think they need to find a treatment as well, and actually find out what the germans are doing, as their intensive care survival rate looks to be way higher- maybe an earlier admission and stratified treatment combo?

There is also a general uplifting of the nation's health required.

But why has it taken so long for the government to realise that 18k staff are needed? They should have been aggressively expanding their contact tracing capacity from the beginning. It goes hand in hand with testing (it even can operate based on symptoms alone, when tests are scarce). And why have they shown no interest in involving existing local health contact tracers (who work on sexually transmitted diseases)?

Dunno, mine was not an editorial comment but an observation.
https://publichealthmatters.blog.gov.uk ... pril-2020/

[Which Tyler]

FT have included excess deaths in their stats, not just UK:
https://www.ft.com/coronavirus-latest

[Mellsblue]

* testing new arrivals in the country would be important. The government isn't interested in this.

** why it's taken till the end of April for the government to realise they need to hire a LOT of contact tracers I do not know.

*its almost certainly part of the plan to move out of lockdown. It hasn’t been implemented as yet as a) such small numbers are flying and b) when modelled, its importance to the economy overrides the risk from such small numbers flying into the country, ie we don’t want to discourage the small number of people who do want to fly in on business they deem important enough.

** govt only has so much capacity. Resources were only moved on to recruitment for this once testing capacity was (on its way to) where they needed it to be.

[Banquo]

FT have included excess deaths in their stats, not just UK:
https://www.ft.com/coronavirus-latest

Interesting, though don't understand the number for France, unless its hospital deaths only. France, and now us have included non-hospital covid deaths, not sure about Italy and Spain. Germany also only report deaths as covid if tested +ve in any setting I believe.... but anyway, as you've concluded, excess deaths is what ultimately matters. Londons 124% is the startling number.

[Sandydragon]

This is very good about plotting a way out of this crisis - https://www.theguardian.com/education/2 ... he-science

"It is understandable that the government is focusing on short-term decisions about the pandemic, and gratifying that they aim to follow “the science” (ie data and evidence). Much of this science involves epidemiological, medical, engineering and technological capabilities.

But it is important to also focus on how to address many of the social and economic challenges in the wake of the pandemic: we need “science” in the broadest sense of the word"

Yes, that is good. Massive cultural shift in our politics needed to take advantage of this; i do wonder about that phrase of asking the experts the right questions, and whether that has applied in say, SAGE.

In my experience, that's a personal thing and any politician cannot be an expert in everything and so will have to trust experts to some degree.

[Banquo]

This is very good about plotting a way out of this crisis - https://www.theguardian.com/education/2 ... he-science

"It is understandable that the government is focusing on short-term decisions about the pandemic, and gratifying that they aim to follow “the science” (ie data and evidence). Much of this science involves epidemiological, medical, engineering and technological capabilities.

But it is important to also focus on how to address many of the social and economic challenges in the wake of the pandemic: we need “science” in the broadest sense of the word"

Yes, that is good. Massive cultural shift in our politics needed to take advantage of this; i do wonder about that phrase of asking the experts the right questions, and whether that has applied in say, SAGE.

In my experience, that's a personal thing and any politician cannot be an expert in everything and so will have to trust experts to some degree.

...my point was, you have to ask the right question of the expert. If you don't know what question to ask.....and that would apply between experts in different disciplines too.

[Sandydragon]

FT have included excess deaths in their stats, not just UK:
https://www.ft.com/coronavirus-latest

Very interesting. Belgium doesn't feature in the news too much, yet they are having real problems. Also, Brazil seems to be speeding up which is down right worrying.

[morepork]

Brazil’s president shrugged off the news. “So what?” Jair Bolsonaro told reporters when asked about the record 474 deaths that day. “I’m sorry. What do you want me to do?”



This fuckwit will take al of Latin America with him. Between him and the clown to the North, the Americas are unnecessarily fucked. They have an responsibility for this.

[Which Tyler]

Interesting, though don't understand the number for France, unless its hospital deaths only.

It's the number of dead people, regardless of cause or location of death.
The baseline is the number of dead people for that week in previous years.

What I haven't figured out yet (and I'm blaming wine for lunch - I'm sure it's bloody obvious) is what the percentage is for.
22,300 seems to be a 53% increase from 10,500...


ETA: OK, reasonably obvious; 27,000 total deaths since 100th COVID death; which is a 53% excess over the average death rate for that same period. So weeks 12-16 for England & Wales (plus a little bit for week 11; not sure how they work that bit out).

[Stom]

Good thread about the 100K test target and why it fails to address key concerns -https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1255 ... 32545.html (see @ChrisCEOHopson)

Test, trace and isolate is the way forward and testing on a large scale needs to support that. Just how far the Govt are in making this a reality needs to be revealed.

That's why PHE are trying to recruit 18k staff and the app is being developed, isn't it? I think they need to find a treatment as well, and actually find out what the germans are doing, as their intensive care survival rate looks to be way higher- maybe an earlier admission and stratified treatment combo?

There is also a general uplifting of the nation's health required.

If Germany are doing so well, and so did South Korea...what do those 2 have in common?

We need to eat more pickled cabbage!!!

[Sandydragon]

Brazil’s president shrugged off the news. “So what?” Jair Bolsonaro told reporters when asked about the record 474 deaths that day. “I’m sorry. What do you want me to do?”



This fuckwit will take al of Latin America with him. Between him and the clown to the North, the Americas are unnecessarily fucked. They have an responsibility for this.

Thats just mental. Pure mental. There have been some mistakes in approaches to this virus, but few have been so openly stupid and dismissive.

[Banquo]

Interesting, though don't understand the number for France, unless its hospital deaths only.

It's the number of dead people, regardless of cause or location of death.
The baseline is the number of dead people for that week in previous years.

What I haven't figured out yet (and I'm blaming wine for lunch - I'm sure it's bloody obvious) is what the percentage is for.
22,300 seems to be a 53% increase from 10,500...


ETA: OK, reasonably obvious; 27,000 total deaths since 100th COVID death; which is a 53% excess over the average death rate for that same period. So weeks 12-16 for England & Wales (plus a little bit for week 11; not sure how they work that bit out).

I've misread it then.

[Banquo]

Good thread about the 100K test target and why it fails to address key concerns -https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1255 ... 32545.html (see @ChrisCEOHopson)

Test, trace and isolate is the way forward and testing on a large scale needs to support that. Just how far the Govt are in making this a reality needs to be revealed.

That's why PHE are trying to recruit 18k staff and the app is being developed, isn't it? I think they need to find a treatment as well, and actually find out what the germans are doing, as their intensive care survival rate looks to be way higher- maybe an earlier admission and stratified treatment combo?

There is also a general uplifting of the nation's health required.

If Germany are doing so well, and so did South Korea...what do those 2 have in common?

We need to eat more pickled cabbage!!!

Should have been clearer- Germany has a very low mortality rate (S Korea contained infections) and I'd think they are doing something very different with their very ill patients in treatment terms, though the relative youth of their cases is also a factor, plus they have likely picked up more cases, early.

[Banquo]

FT have included excess deaths in their stats, not just UK:
https://www.ft.com/coronavirus-latest

Very interesting. Belgium doesn't feature in the news too much, yet they are having real problems. Also, Brazil seems to be speeding up which is down right worrying.

Russia also 'interesting', and Mexico.

[Digby]

Given China took a while to get going in their response how did they keep the virus so contained, is there that little movement within the country? Also somewhat surprised we're not getting more bad news from the likes of India

[Galfon]

we need “science” in the broadest sense of the word"

true, science (knowledge) of this virus in how it behaves now out of the bag, is in it's early stages and there appears plenty of knee-jerks and straw-grasping atm.This, like the vaccines/treatment testing can't be fast tracked in the way government policy and economic measures can - this is where the other expertise in social factors, mental health, crime etc. is critical.The biggest stumbling block globally thus far appears to be human behaviour in it's various extremes.People get frightened when faced with a serious threat that is out of their control.
Yup - professional sport, is pretty irrelevant right now along with many other faux 'celebrity' occupations.

[Banquo]

Given China took a while to get going in their response how did they keep the virus so contained, is there that little movement within the country? Also somewhat surprised we're not getting more bad news from the likes of India

Both India and South Africa are a 'pleasant surprise', if the picture presented is accurate. SA moving 'down' one level of lockdown.