COVID19

[Mikey Brown]

[Digby]

As noted for quite some time the Government was rather freaked out by the numbers staying at home and the impact on the economy. So I can understand wanting to get some movement back to what's perceived as a normality, what I find difficult to digest is they don't seem to honestly want to own that position, they're encouraging more people to move about but in such fashion they can claim deniability if the shit hits the fan, craven wankers.

[Donny osmond]

By way of giving the UK govt a break from endless (but well deserved) criticisms...

In Scotland, which we know is run by the much more competent Sturgeon with much more clear messaging, ummm:

- 73% of the population of care homes are thought to have the virus but the health Minister can't detail what guidance is given to care homes for dealing with that
- the govt have no idea what our R value is or how it's calculated (or at least, won't tell us)
- Critical Care Consultants in our largest A&E unit have to take to social media to get a response from the govt about actually providing some PPE
- it turns out there was a known outbreak at a conference on 26-27 Feb in Edinburgh which kicked everything into gear so that we banned mass gatherings .... 3 weeks later on the 16th March
- we're at 2500ish tests per day. Yes BJ has been getting pelters for struggling up to 100,000 per day. We are on 2500 per day.

If you're one of those who looks to Sturgeon as a better leader than Johnson, perhaps try and look past the style and spin and look for any substance or actions from her administration.

Sent from my CPH1951 using Tapatalk

[Son of Mathonwy]

Well it was a rhetorical question, but yes.

Fair enough

[paddy no 11]

Did Johnson even allow for people with medical conditions people over 60 to stay at home?

Yer going to hit 80,000 in 6 weeks

[Galfon]

Doctor Feelgood: BoJo announcement planned to nestle comfortably between the VE-day happyfest, and a long weekend run of low death reports..somewhat fortuitous you might say.Normal service set to resume tomorrow.

[Sandydragon]

Actually picking up on the comment:

"Those who six months ago could not forget his long history of amateurishness, dishonesty and clowning now cannot remember them, and praise him instead."

I'd actually have to concede rather than forgetting his amateurishness, dishonesty and clowning I can't actually remember praising him, and that's a much more recent thing I can't remember. Or maybe I've forgotten to praise him such is my forgetfulness. Or maybe Hitchens is a shit writer and a shit individual, albeit far superior to Piers Morgan

Far superior to Morgan?

[Galfon]

Brazil and Mexico nudge closer to the abyss, sadly.
Russia's death rate for Moscow in April was 20% above the norm ( circa 2k.), and reported cases continue to rise,
so VP shows the virus who's boss..

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-52620015

[Digby]

Actually picking up on the comment:

"Those who six months ago could not forget his long history of amateurishness, dishonesty and clowning now cannot remember them, and praise him instead."

I'd actually have to concede rather than forgetting his amateurishness, dishonesty and clowning I can't actually remember praising him, and that's a much more recent thing I can't remember. Or maybe I've forgotten to praise him such is my forgetfulness. Or maybe Hitchens is a shit writer and a shit individual, albeit far superior to Piers Morgan

Far superior to Morgan?

Yes, but in fairness Covid-19 Is probably superior to Piers

[Eugene Wrayburn]

As noted for quite some time the Government was rather freaked out by the numbers staying at home and the impact on the economy. So I can understand wanting to get some movement back to what's perceived as a normality, what I find difficult to digest is they don't seem to honestly want to own that position, they're encouraging more people to move about but in such fashion they can claim deniability if the shit hits the fan, craven wankers.

This

[Eugene Wrayburn]

Current estimates have the number of infections in England at around 6.5 million. I was hoping for rather more to be honest. It does show that if the virus was left to run loose a quarter of a million deaths is a perfectly reasonable estimate of a result.




Btw if you don't already follow Prof David Spiegelhalter, professor of risk, on twitter you should do so.

[Which Tyler]

Shamelessly stolen from elsewhere:

I think I’ve worked it out...

* 4 year olds can go to school but university students who have paid for their tuition and the accommodation that they aren’t living in, can’t go back to university.

* I can go to school with many 4 year olds that I’m not related to but can’t see one 4 year old that I am related to.

* I can sit in a park, but not tomorrow or Tuesday but by Wednesday that’ll be fine.

* I can meet one person from another household for a chat or to sunbathe but not two people so if I know two people from another household I have to pick my favourite. Hopefully, I’m also their favourite person from my household or this could be awkward. But possibly I’m not. In fact, thinking about it, I definitely wouldn’t be. But as I can’t go closer than 2m to the one I choose anyway so you wouldn’t think having the other one sat next to them would matter - unless two people would restrict my eyeline too much and prevent me from being alert.

* I can work all day with my colleagues but I can’t sit in their garden for a chat after work.

* I can now do unlimited exercise when quite frankly just doing an hour a day felt like I was some kind of fitness guru. I can think of lots of things that I would like to be unlimited but exercise definitely isn’t one of them.

* I can drive to other destinations although which destinations is unclear. I was supposed to be in Brighton this weekend. Can I drive there? It’s hundreds of miles away but no one has said that’s wrong.

* The buses are still running past my house but I shouldn’t get on one. We should just let empty buses drive around so bus drivers aren’t doing nothing.

* It will soon be time to quarantine people coming into the country by air... but not yet. It’s too soon. And not ever if you’re coming from France because... well, I don’t do know why, actually. Because the French version of coronavirus wouldn’t come to the UK maybe.

* Our youngest children go back to school first because... they are notoriously good at not touching things they shouldn’t, maintain personal space at all times and never randomly lick you.

* We are somewhere in between 3.5 and 4.5 on a five point scale where 5 is all of the virus and 1 is none of the virus but 2,3 and 4 can be anything you’d like it to be really. Some of the virus? A bit of the virus? Just enough virus to see off those over 70s who were told to self isolate but now we’ve realised that they’ve done that a bit too well despite us offloading coronavirus patients into care homes and now we are claiming that was never said in the first place, even though it’s in writing in the stay at home guidance.

* The slogan isn’t stay at home any more.So we don’t have to say at home. Except we do. Unless we can’t. In which case we should go out. But there will be fines if we break the rules. So don’t do that.

Don’t forget...

Stay alert... which Robert Jenrick has explained actually means Stay home as much as possible. Obviously.

Control the virus. Well, I can’t even control my dogs and I can actually see them. Plus I know a bit about dogs and very little about controlling viruses.

Save lives. Always preferable to not saving lives, I’d say, so I’ll try my best with that one, although hopefully I don’t need telling to do that. I know I’m bragging now but not NOT saving lives is something I do every day.

So there you are. If you’re the weirdo wanting unlimited exercise then enjoy. But not until Wednesday. Obviously

[fivepointer]

Don't forget to factor in that well known British commonsense. That'll see us through.

[Banquo]

Don't forget to factor in that well known British commonsense. That'll see us through.

English mate. Scots, Welsh and NI aren't in on this

[Digby]

Don't forget to factor in that well known British commonsense. That'll see us through.

English mate. Scots, Welsh and NI aren't in on this

In some respects that's useful as Scotland is perhaps a few weeks behind England, so having a more varied approach has some positives, though there's got to be some concern it's more they're behind London in similar fashion to the North or West of England

[Mellsblue]

Don't forget to factor in that well known British commonsense. That'll see us through.

English mate. Scots, Welsh and NI aren't in on this

In some respects that's useful as Scotland is perhaps a few weeks behind England, so having a more varied approach has some positives, though there's got to be some concern it's more they're behind London in similar fashion to the North or West of England

From what I’ve read, it’s more rural v large towns/cities than London v the rest. Manchester and Birmingham are not too far behind London. Weirdly, Lancashire isn’t too far behind, either. I’m guessing it’s the densely populated large former mill towns that are creating hotspots. Even more weirdly, the Lake District is also a hotspot. The locals are blaming this on Londoners who fled to second homes.

[Banquo]

Don't forget to factor in that well known British commonsense. That'll see us through.

English mate. Scots, Welsh and NI aren't in on this

In some respects that's useful as Scotland is perhaps a few weeks behind England, so having a more varied approach has some positives, though there's got to be some concern it's more they're behind London in similar fashion to the North or West of England

indeed- as a parallel thought, the NHS 'lockdown' should have been done regionally....the reversal out is certainly being looked at in this way.

Back to trying humour - Ian Woosnam's home golf course is half in England, half in Wales. 4th Green is in England, but the tee in Wales, 5th and 6th holes entirely in England.

[Digby]

For a moment I wondered if he'd be able to lug a set of golf clubs around by himself in an age of social distancing, but he's probably the sort to golf using a cart, which is a ruse to take even the limited amount of exercise out of what's barely a sport.

[Banquo]

For a moment I wondered if he'd be able to lug a set of golf clubs around by himself in an age of social distancing, but he's probably the sort to golf using a cart, which is a ruse to take even the limited amount of exercise out of what's barely a sport.

My clubs booking site makes the govt test and trace app look efficient.

[Mikey Brown]

https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2020/ ... rus-deaths

Jesus. This looks like a Trump-esque appointment.

[Son of Mathonwy]

Taking the newest ONS numbers I see:
Up to 1 May:
Gov UK Covid-19 deaths: 27,510
(ONS) All UK Covid-19 deaths: 36,591
So the total UK number is 33.0% higher than the Gov number. (31.2% last time)

Assuming this ratio holds to date, we have as of 12 May:
Gov UK Covid-19 deaths: 32,692
All UK Covid-19 deaths: 43,484

Ultimately a more important number is the excess deaths for any cause, if we assume Covid-19 is the main driver of the excess. Taking the ONS numbers for England and Wales to 1 May we have:
Covid-19 deaths: 33,302
Excess deaths compared with 5 year average: 46,380
We see that total excess deaths are 39.3% higher than ONS reported Covid-19 deaths. (40.7% last time)

Assuming this ratio holds to date, we have as of 12 May:
All UK excess deaths (presumably due to Covid-19): 60,560
which is 85% greater than the reported Government number. (85% last time - no change)

[Son of Mathonwy]

Taking the newest ONS numbers I see:
Up to 1 May:
Gov UK Covid-19 deaths: 27,510
(ONS) All UK Covid-19 deaths: 36,591
So the total UK number is 33.0% higher than the Gov number. (31.2% last time)

Assuming this ratio holds to date, we have as of 12 May:
Gov UK Covid-19 deaths: 32,692
All UK Covid-19 deaths: 43,484

Ultimately a more important number is the excess deaths for any cause, if we assume Covid-19 is the main driver of the excess. Taking the ONS numbers for England and Wales to 1 May we have:
Covid-19 deaths: 33,302
Excess deaths compared with 5 year average: 46,380
We see that total excess deaths are 39.3% higher than ONS reported Covid-19 deaths. (40.7% last time)

Assuming this ratio holds to date, we have as of 12 May:
All UK excess deaths (presumably due to Covid-19): 60,560
which is 85% greater than the reported Government number. (85% last time - no change)

I've looked back at my calculations based on the previous ONS numbers and compared prediction with reality, ie prediction of the following week's ONS numbers based on the current ONS numbers and the government numbers from the intervening days. NB the "actual" all UK excess deaths are based on the Eng & Wal ONS numbers, pro rata'd up).

Prediction for 24 Apr (based on 17 Apr ONS + 24 Apr gov numbers):
All UK, positive tests only: actual = 22,792
All UK, deaths involving COVID-19: prediction: 28,234 actual: 29,912 actual/prediction: 105.9%
All UK, excess deaths: prediction: 39,755 actual: 42,103 actual/prediction: 105.9%

Prediction for 1 May (based on 24 Apr ONS + 1 May gov numbers):
All UK, positive tests only: actual = 27,510
All UK, deaths involving COVID-19: prediction: 36,104 actual: 36,591 actual/prediction: 101.3%
All UK, excess deaths: prediction: 50,791 actual: 50,868 actual/prediction: 100.2%

So the numbers are pretty good for a back of an envelope calculation.

Looking ahead to next week's ONS numbers, I'll make the following:
Prediction for 8 May (based on 1 May ONS + 8 May gov numbers):
All UK, positive tests only: actual = 31,241
All UK, deaths involving COVID-19: prediction: 41,554
All UK, excess deaths: prediction: 57,872

[Digby]

For a moment I wondered if he'd be able to lug a set of golf clubs around by himself in an age of social distancing, but he's probably the sort to golf using a cart, which is a ruse to take even the limited amount of exercise out of what's barely a sport.

My clubs booking site makes the govt test and trace app look efficient.

My back and knees (left knee in particular) make golf a little too much of a challenge these days. Though I retain the hope at some point I'll be able to potter around, and not resent I have to potter around

[Which Tyler]

Covid 19.jpg

[Lizard]

NZ has had no deaths for a week and a weekly rolling average of <2 new cases/day. We drop a level of lockdown tomorrow.

It's still not clear if/when amateur rugby will start. I really hope they can get the kids on the park sometime this season. My 7 year old boy was supposed to have his first season of contact footy this year. He's been sleeping with his brand new, as-yet-unfitted mouthguard by his bed all through lockdown, which began just as pre-season training was supposed to start.