COVID19

[Puja]

I can't help but feel that NZ and Australia are going to be the big winners out of this. NZ is now completely back to normal and Australia has got a decent roadmap to being in the same position. It's infuriating, cause we could have achieved the same (being an island nation and having derped so hard for control of our borders), and been back in a position where we had full stadia for Premier League matches, high street back in full flow, our entire internal economy back up and running. An early and complete lockdown of everything and severing of foreign travel would've cost us massively, but you'd imagine we'll lose more from this neverending twilight.

Puja

[Digby]

We couldn't have matched what NZ did even if we'd tried and been really good at it, and too they're hardly back to normal in NZ and Australia

[Stom]

We couldn't have matched what NZ did even if we'd tried and been really good at it, and too they're hardly back to normal in NZ and Australia

The more populous your country, the harder hit you are.

If you've got 4 men and a dog spread across 2 huge islands...you're probably going to be OK.

[Galfon]

.. a dog spread across 2 huge islands...you're probably going to be OK.

with a dog that clever, you can't fail

[Sandydragon]

We couldn't have matched what NZ did even if we'd tried and been really good at it, and too they're hardly back to normal in NZ and Australia

The more populous your country, the harder hit you are.

If you've got 4 men and a dog spread across 2 huge islands...you're probably going to be OK.

There is truth in that, but if we had gone for a hard lockdown 2 weeks earlier and continued to contact trace, we could have been in a much better boat. We would still have had thousands of deaths, but perhaps we could have cut the total deaths to a quarter.

[Stones of granite]

We couldn't have matched what NZ did even if we'd tried and been really good at it, and too they're hardly back to normal in NZ and Australia

The more populous your country, the harder hit you are.

If you've got 4 men and a dog spread across 2 huge islands...you're probably going to be OK.

There is truth in that, but if we had gone for a hard lockdown 2 weeks earlier and continued to contact trace, we could have been in a much better boat. We would still have had thousands of deaths, but perhaps we could have cut the total deaths to a quarter.

It was never going to happen. The same voices that were prevailing, right up until shagger got a fright from the Ferguson model are the same voices that are trying to accelerate the exit from lockdown and reduce the social distancing gap. If he had managed to wash his hands that time, and not fallen it, we'd already be right into the second wave now.

[morepork]

I'd be focusing more on the leadership differences as opposed to the relative population sizes. The UK does not appear to have embraced any one single clear strategy and just bumbled along doing effectively nothing. NZ may have a small spread out population, but the major population centers all had some degree of community transmission and that has been stamped out. There's your data.

[Stom]

We couldn't have matched what NZ did even if we'd tried and been really good at it, and too they're hardly back to normal in NZ and Australia

The more populous your country, the harder hit you are.

If you've got 4 men and a dog spread across 2 huge islands...you're probably going to be OK.

There is truth in that, but if we had gone for a hard lockdown 2 weeks earlier and continued to contact trace, we could have been in a much better boat. We would still have had thousands of deaths, but perhaps we could have cut the total deaths to a quarter.

As much as the UK has done this terribly, the government here hardly tested en masse. Yet here we are with a fraction of the per capita death toll.

Population density has proved the number 1 factor in spread.

[Sandydragon]

I'd be focusing more on the leadership differences as opposed to the relative population sizes. The UK does not appear to have embraced any one single clear strategy and just bumbled along doing effectively nothing. NZ may have a small spread out population, but the major population centers all had some degree of community transmission and that has been stamped out. There's your data.

That’s hard to dispute. Scientists and politicians will blame each other for this, but both seem to be culpable. The politicians failed to provide leadership. Even without a scientific background, it’s perfectly possible to ask the question why Sage isn’t recommending a lockdown when the WHO and the rest of the world are recommending/ doing just that.

The scientists should review some of their decision making. Why did they focus so much on the flu? Were there the right scientists present on Sage? Were they being sufficiently clear to the politicians or being too couched in their language. Why did they feel that their advice should be different to the rest of the world?

Many many questions.

[Stones of granite]

I'd be focusing more on the leadership differences as opposed to the relative population sizes. The UK does not appear to have embraced any one single clear strategy and just bumbled along doing effectively nothing. NZ may have a small spread out population, but the major population centers all had some degree of community transmission and that has been stamped out. There's your data.

It's really not at all unlike Scotland - a low overall population density that hides the fact that there are areas of very high population density where the majority of the population happen to live.
Obviously New Zealand is a little less well connected as well, but I think the main difference is how quickly the NZ Government reacted, while British politicians seemed to have been caught like rabbits in the headlights.

[fivepointer]

NZ had a clear strategy from the outset: they would eliminate the virus. They werent interested in trying to keep a lid on things and reduce the death toll. They set out to hit the virus hard early on. Its worked a treat.
Now they obviously had advantages being an island and having a largely rural, dispersed population, but they made them work to their advantage and have had the benefit of clear and direct leadership.
Crucially their medics recognised early that this wasnt a flu like virus but something far nastier and far more infectious.
In addition to the abysmal leadership we've had, I do think questions need to be asked about the composition of SAGE and about the advice they have provided.

[Digby]

Now they obviously had advantages being an island and having a largely rural, dispersed population

It's not actually the Shire, pretty much everyone lives in/around the big towns and cities

[morepork]

It was the response that saved NZ, not the geography. Taiwan, also an island, has 5x the population of NZ and managed to keep a lid on things because their leaders are on to it and acted decisively and early. That's the variable here.

[Sandydragon]

It was the response that saved NZ, not the geography. Taiwan, also an island, has 5x the population of NZ and managed to keep a lid on things because their leaders are on to it and acted decisively and early. That's the variable here.

Firm decisive leadership which provided a clear goal. Nothing incredible about that except for the fact that such leadership was badly lacking.

I can understand the initial indecision. We can’t shut down for everything. But the alarm bells should have been sounding when Italy went downhill so quickly.

[Galfon]

Must have blown over now eh ?..
Deaths under 50, thousands protesting at weekends, illegal raves ( 2 in Manc. at weekend - several thousand at each ), Bicester burstin'
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-o ... e-53057199
...good to see protective face-coverings finally out there now we're at this point.
A few weeks back it would be Covidiot-of-the-week time,
but the Norm appears to have re-newed again.

[morepork]

Rave away UK. What could go wrong?

[Digby]

I see we've decided to outsource Covid to NZ, a brave new strategy, well maybe now new, we've been outsourcing for a while now

[Galfon]

Greece has done a great job to date, but it seems we're doing our bit with them too..( new case from english tutor in a 'free' location) - they've now banned us from touring for a while longer.

[Sandydragon]

Quite comical that we are wanting to quarantine people arriving in the UK whilst exporting the virus merrily.

Import controls and tariff free exports - sounds like a Brexiteers wet dream.

[Mikey Brown]

Must have blown over now eh ?..
Deaths under 50, thousands protesting at weekends, illegal raves ( 2 in Manc. at weekend - several thousand at each ), Bicester burstin'
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-o ... e-53057199
...good to see protective face-coverings finally out there now we're at this point.
A few weeks back it would be Covidiot-of-the-week time,
but the Norm appears to have re-newed again.

The info on wearing a mask here has just been absurd. I feel like the message most people got was "we're not totally sure yet so I guess wear one if you fancy it?" and now finally it's being recommended it feels far too late.

It's awful thinking about the number of people that happily would have worn one were it normalised more quickly, but embarrassment or vanity are quite powerful.

[Digby]

we haven't got good info on wearing masks yet, as in what materials, made how, stored/disposed how, washed how, length for wearing before replacing and so on. so even now the advice hasn't come too late, it's still some mix of the inadequate and the incompetent

also whilst we have info on hand washing there's not much being said about length of fingernails, fake nails, whether wearing bracelets (including watches) is a good idea, what of rings?

[Banquo]

we haven't got good info on wearing masks yet, as in what materials, made how, stored/disposed how, washed how, length for wearing before replacing and so on. so even now the advice hasn't come too late, it's still some mix of the inadequate and the incompetent

also whilst we have info on hand washing there's not much being said about length of fingernails, fake nails, whether wearing bracelets (including watches) is a good idea, what of rings?

Are you talking about work?

[Banquo]

Must have blown over now eh ?..
Deaths under 50, thousands protesting at weekends, illegal raves ( 2 in Manc. at weekend - several thousand at each ), Bicester burstin'
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-o ... e-53057199
...good to see protective face-coverings finally out there now we're at this point.
A few weeks back it would be Covidiot-of-the-week time,
but the Norm appears to have re-newed again.

The info on wearing a mask here has just been absurd. I feel like the message most people got was "we're not totally sure yet so I guess wear one if you fancy it?" and now finally it's being recommended it feels far too late.

It's awful thinking about the number of people that happily would have worn one were it normalised more quickly, but embarrassment or vanity are quite powerful.

Try reading the WHO advice, they must have splinters.

[Which Tyler]

Try reading the WHO advice, they must have splinters.

The trouble with the WHO is that they're there mostly to give advice to poor countries who can't afford to do their own research and come up with more targetted plans for their own needs - yet are funded by those who can afford to.
They're not so much giving advice for the UK's approach (beyond wanting us to set a good example) - they're worried about giving advice on washing hands / masks for that portion of the global population who doesn't have access to soap or clean water - where a mask (for example) would quickly become a massive infection risk for hundreds of different bacteria.

They then get reported on by media from wealthy countries who like to go into attack-dog mode, don't really do nuance, but enjoy a good bit of mis-representation; and have a punching bag that can't punch back.


Ultimately, on masks - the scientific answer for their efficacy is "it's complicated, and it depends".

[Banquo]

Try reading the WHO advice, they must have splinters.

The trouble with the WHO is that they're there mostly to give advice to poor countries who can't afford to do their own research and come up with more targetted plans for their own needs - yet are funded by those who can afford to.
They're not so much giving advice for the UK's approach (beyond wanting us to set a good example) - they're worried about giving advice on washing hands / masks for that portion of the global population who doesn't have access to soap or clean water - where a mask (for example) would quickly become a massive infection risk for hundreds of different bacteria.

They then get reported on by media from wealthy countries who like to go into attack-dog mode, don't really do nuance, but enjoy a good bit of mis-representation; and have a punching bag that can't punch back.

Have you read the guidance on face masks, out of interest? I did, because obviously my staff do.