COVID19

[paddy no 11]

Oxford/AstraZen vacc. trial going to plan - Phase I results awaiting publication.( appears safe )

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/heal ... 21691.html

Moderna (US) due to start phase II this month and early results promising..
Looks like both may be available after autumn/winter, so it's hold on to yer hats for now. This winter could be Fred Karno's.

Hopefully it works, going to be a rough winter with seasonal flu and covid

IF people get stuck into the hand washing and distancing and the hospitals continue with hugely improved infection control, then seasonal flu could well be a lot less than we've become used to. They won't though.

Yup, community acquired pneumonia should be another victim of social distancing and good hygeine etiquette also.....

[Banquo]

Hopefully it works, going to be a rough winter with seasonal flu and covid

IF people get stuck into the hand washing and distancing and the hospitals continue with hugely improved infection control, then seasonal flu could well be a lot less than we've become used to. They won't though.

Yup, community acquired pneumonia should be another victim of social distancing and good hygeine etiquette also.....

If nothing else, the hospitals are getting a long overdue kick up the ar5e on infection control.

[Mellsblue]

Good news from Singapore. T-cells will give years of immunity even if antibodies only last a short time. The T-cells also boost immunity for all coronaviruses. Even more good news if these pandemics do become more regular.

[morepork]

Almost. All COVID cases had reactive T-cells, which means their immune systems had memory specific for the virus. Individuals that had SARS had long lasting T cell memory against that virus, and some indivuals who were never exposed to either virus had a slightly different memory apparently directed to a conserved protein domain in animal coronaviruses. Somewhere along the way they were exposed to these and they trigered a memory that looks like it might be effective for a T cell response against the COVID-causing beasty. Good observation that will help target a treatment.

It does however mean that hoomans are loaded with appreciable quantities of viruses that originate in other species. The more we encroach on animal habitat, the more frequent this zoonotic transmission will become. We can expect more of this shit in the future.


https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2550-z

"Memory T cells induced by previous pathogens can shape the susceptibility to, and clinical severity of, subsequent infections1. Little is known about the presence of pre-existing memory T cells in humans with the potential to recognize SARS-CoV-2. Here, we first studied T cell responses to structural (nucleocapsid protein, NP) and non-structural (NSP-7 and NSP13 of ORF1) regions of SARS-CoV-2 in COVID-19 convalescents (n=36). In all of them we demonstrated the presence of CD4 and CD8 T cells recognizing multiple regions of the NP protein. We then showed that SARS-recovered patients (n=23) still possess long-lasting memory T cells reactive to SARS-NP 17 years after the 2003 outbreak, which displayed robust cross-reactivity to SARS-CoV-2 NP. Surprisingly, we also frequently detected SARS-CoV-2 specific T cells in individuals with no history of SARS, COVID-19 or contact with SARS/COVID-19 patients (n=37). SARS-CoV-2 T cells in uninfected donors exhibited a different pattern of immunodominance, frequently targeting the ORF-1-coded proteins NSP7 and 13 as well as the NP structural protein. Epitope characterization of NSP7-specific T cells showed recognition of protein fragments with low homology to “common cold” human coronaviruses but conserved amongst animal betacoranaviruses. Thus, infection with betacoronaviruses induces multispecific and long-lasting T cell immunity to the structural protein NP. Understanding how pre-existing NP- and ORF-1-specific T cells present in the general population impact susceptibility and pathogenesis of SARS-CoV-2 infection is of paramount importance for the management of the current COVID-19 pandemic."

[Galfon]

Good news from Singapore. T-cells will give years of immunity even if antibodies only last a short time. The T-cells also boost immunity for all coronaviruses. Even more good news if these pandemics do become more regular.

Owd'ns appear less fortunate
I understand T cell memory generated later in life functions poorly, so generation of novel immune responses against pathogens etc. in the aged, can be impaired

[Galfon]

Bolting horse / is it too late ? #2 (+..)
Bozza may be about to declare office working can resume and be actively encouraged.There are concerns apparently of suburbs getting the bustle back but city & town centres still dead...('polo mint') ; just might be that the usual customers are at home in the suburbs and not down-town anymore. It just might be that it works better for the employer (cost, productivity) and employee ( cost, time, productivity, well-being etc..) and they would prefer to keep it going. (does help the environment somewhat too.)
Revenue generated by the big-Commute and centre based hospitality businesses may never recover..more job losses..a new Normal not exactly hoped for, but things have just been jolted on, innit.

[morepork]

I'm sure his communication will be succinct, unambiguous and on point.

[Sandydragon]

Bolting horse / is it too late ? #2 (+..)
Bozza may be about to declare office working can resume and be actively encouraged.There are concerns apparently of suburbs getting the bustle back but city & town centres still dead...('polo mint') ; just might be that the usual customers are at home in the suburbs and not down-town anymore. It just might be that it works better for the employer (cost, productivity) and employee ( cost, time, productivity, well-being etc..) and they would prefer to keep it going. (does help the environment somewhat too.)
Revenue generated by the big-Commute and centre based hospitality businesses may never recover..more job losses..a new Normal not exactly hoped for, but things have just been jolted on, innit.

Some newspaper, like the Times, have been banging in about this for weeks. In order to save Pret, I need to endure a cramped train commute and then suffer in a cramped office which is just designed to transmit infections.

I think we have firmly moved into save the economy mode and not beat the virus .

In my view this is the wrong approach. We should look to improving the environment by reducing the commute and reimagine what offices should be used for.

[Galfon]

We should look to improving the environment by reducing the commute and reimagine what offices should be used for.

True ; key office functions have turned inside out with cloudworld.
He won't want to be misinterpreted as worrying more about the economic recovery than some citizens dying, as occurred with flattening of the sombrero so the hospitals could stay open at the beginning, rather than aiming for a flat-cap or even beret. (strict lockdown/lower mortalities )

[Digby]

Some of the systems/suggestions around getting office workers in/out of a building, up stairs, and into lifts are frankly hilarious. So we've got that to enjoy.

[Mellsblue]

Someone better have a plan for the tens of thousands of people whose jobs rely on people commuting in to cities. It’s not necessarily about saving Pret, it’s saving all the jobs at Pret and it’s supply chain.
I’m all for home working, for numerous reasons, but if we’re doing it in huge numbers in one fell swoop I hope someone comes up with a brilliant plan to re-employ all those that lose their job.

[Mellsblue]

Imperial College saying the the U.K. had a R rate of 0.57 when lockdown was eased in May......

[Puja]

Someone better have a plan for the tens of thousands of people whose jobs rely on people commuting in to cities. It’s not necessarily about saving Pret, it’s saving all the jobs at Pret and it’s supply chain.
I’m all for home working, for numerous reasons, but if we’re doing it in huge numbers in one fell swoop I hope someone comes up with a brilliant plan to re-employ all those that lose their job.

Surely this situation is basic income o'clock, even if only temporarily? Massive paradigm shift, huge job losses and the collapse of industries that just plain might not come back. Is it better for the economy to spend money propping up dinosaur industries just to keep people employed, or spend the money to see if a different system would work better?

Puja

[Galfon]

A chief scientific adviser speaks..!
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-53436865

so no need to change after all, but
'work from home if you can' -->'go back to work if you can' --> 'home working perfectly good option' (for many..)

sounds like he wants businesses to open up again even if does not make business sense - yet more bail-outs ?
(homeworkers are already working after all..)

[Mellsblue]

Someone better have a plan for the tens of thousands of people whose jobs rely on people commuting in to cities. It’s not necessarily about saving Pret, it’s saving all the jobs at Pret and it’s supply chain.
I’m all for home working, for numerous reasons, but if we’re doing it in huge numbers in one fell swoop I hope someone comes up with a brilliant plan to re-employ all those that lose their job.

Surely this situation is basic income o'clock, even if only temporarily? Massive paradigm shift, huge job losses and the collapse of industries that just plain might not come back. Is it better for the economy to spend money propping up dinosaur industries just to keep people employed, or spend the money to see if a different system would work better?

Puja

If working in city centre and public transport service industries are dinosaur industries then a very large part of the UK’s entire economic model is completely fecked. Think of the list that are highly predicated on commuters:
food outlets
cleaners
taxi drivers
security/concierge
pubs/bars
tube/train workers
bus drivers
refuse workers
the supply chain for all of the above

If we go down a UBI route it won’t be temporary, and that’s before you get to how we can afford it, that it’s not a substitute for a job - financially or psychologically - that it’ll impinge on the life chances of the kids in ubi homes etc etc.

You’ve either got to hope that the market will suddenly provide new jobs for mostly poorly educated people or that cities’ economies, particularly London’s, will collapse so quickly and so badly that all the landlords take a punt on turning office accommodation in to resi and people move back in to the cities.

Grim.

[Banquo]

Someone better have a plan for the tens of thousands of people whose jobs rely on people commuting in to cities. It’s not necessarily about saving Pret, it’s saving all the jobs at Pret and it’s supply chain.
I’m all for home working, for numerous reasons, but if we’re doing it in huge numbers in one fell swoop I hope someone comes up with a brilliant plan to re-employ all those that lose their job.

Surely this situation is basic income o'clock, even if only temporarily? Massive paradigm shift, huge job losses and the collapse of industries that just plain might not come back. Is it better for the economy to spend money propping up dinosaur industries just to keep people employed, or spend the money to see if a different system would work better?

Puja

Such as?

(though I assume you mean summat like UBI, unless you have something else in mind)

Also- which 'industries' are 'dinosaur'?

[Puja]

Someone better have a plan for the tens of thousands of people whose jobs rely on people commuting in to cities. It’s not necessarily about saving Pret, it’s saving all the jobs at Pret and it’s supply chain.
I’m all for home working, for numerous reasons, but if we’re doing it in huge numbers in one fell swoop I hope someone comes up with a brilliant plan to re-employ all those that lose their job.

Surely this situation is basic income o'clock, even if only temporarily? Massive paradigm shift, huge job losses and the collapse of industries that just plain might not come back. Is it better for the economy to spend money propping up dinosaur industries just to keep people employed, or spend the money to see if a different system would work better?

Puja

If working in city centre and public transport service industries are dinosaur industries then a very large part of the UK’s entire economic model is completely fecked. Think of the list that are highly predicated on commuters:
food outlets
cleaners
taxi drivers
security/concierge
pubs/bars
tube/train workers
bus drivers
refuse workers
the supply chain for all of the above

That's kinda where I came in. If commuting is over, or even mostly over, there's gonna be a lot of industries and jobs going bye-bye and, if we've got a choice between artificially trying to keep those industries alive and giving people a basic income that will allow them to cover basic needs so they can retrain, start a business, go back to education, etc, then I'm all for the latter.

Puja

[Stom]

I’m with puja here. If it’s possible to get rid of some of those chains and create opportunities for small business ideas to flourish, do it.

But that means a complete u-turn for the Tories with their focus on the profits of Whetherspoons, Pret, et al.

[Banquo]

I’m with puja here. If it’s possible to get rid of some of those chains and create opportunities for small business ideas to flourish, do it.

But that means a complete u-turn for the Tories with their focus on the profits of Whetherspoons, Pret, et al.

So, kill off many service industries and public transport in cities and their huge supply chains, and replace with what? I don't disagree that it looks likely, but just making the problem statement and some partial outcome (destroy multinationals ) doesn't really help. I suspect you are talking in the 10's of millions of jobs, and restructuring the economy overnight in effect- quick search says 85% of UK workforce works in the service industries (a broad brush, but you get the picture).

[Stom]

I’m with puja here. If it’s possible to get rid of some of those chains and create opportunities for small business ideas to flourish, do it.

But that means a complete u-turn for the Tories with their focus on the profits of Whetherspoons, Pret, et al.

So, kill off many service industries and public transport in cities and their huge supply chains, and replace with what? I don't disagree that it looks likely, but just making the problem statement and some partial outcome (destroy multinationals ) doesn't really help. I suspect you are talking in the 10's of millions of jobs, and restructuring the economy overnight in effect- quick search says 85% of UK workforce works in the service industries (a broad brush, but you get the picture).

Let’s take, for example, the train companies. They have been fighting with their unions for years to try and reduce the workforce to make more profit. No guards means worse service for the users, so it can’t be argued that this is a fight driven by anything other than corporate greed and making the companies sole purpose to make profit for their shareholders.

New regulations demanding minimum 2 guards on each train and suddenly running fewer trains doesn’t reduce the workforce. Ditto adding more staff back into stations, as if you have a problem you press a button, wait until your train comes and leave it still ringing. That’s appalling service.

Of course, those companies will scream it’s unfair and many will just leave, so those services will need to be denationalized, which makes sense as it’sa natural monopoly and those do not work in the interests of their users.

Offer many of those others who have gone from being underpaid “baristas”, in inverted commas because most of those chains couldn’t make a nice cup of coffee to save their life, the opportunity to retrain as, for example, a va. That puts them firmly in the service industry but one that is growing like hell and one where many small businesses and entrepreneurs are looking for high quality, native speaking vas to take work of them. They’ll generally get paid more than they were getting, I believe three ball park figure for a native va is around £10/h.

There’s a lot more but I’m not an economist to be able to dig deep into the figures, not that most economists are scientists anymore.

[Which Tyler]

If working in city centre and public transport service industries are dinosaur industries then a very large part of the UK’s entire economic model is completely fecked. Think of the list that are highly predicated on commuters:
food outlets
cleaners
taxi drivers
security/concierge
pubs/bars
tube/train workers
bus drivers
refuse workers
the supply chain for all of the above

That's kinda where I came in. If commuting is over, or even mostly over, there's gonna be a lot of industries and jobs going bye-bye and, if we've got a choice between artificially trying to keep those industries alive and giving people a basic income that will allow them to cover basic needs so they can retrain, start a business, go back to education, etc, then I'm all for the latter.[/quote]
You mean "learn the lessons from the 80s in favour of repeating the same mistakes and condemning cities to the same fate as mining / manufacturing towns for decades to come"?

It'll never happen

ETA & IMO, if a sector has died, then it's died (whether that's office-based work and it's support industry, whatever AI ends up replacing, or anything else).
Government's job is to manage the transition to something else; not to simply support it without an eye on replacement, or to kill it dead at a stroke.

It won't be easy, and I don't have any answers (I like UBI, but it's not an "answer"). Anyone who though governing is easy shouldn't be in government (even though a cursory look at our cabinet would suggest otherwise )

[Digby]

Who knows what the future brings, though it does seem to be apt time to be playing The Last of us 2, that's now almost an educational tool

[Mellsblue]

I’m with puja here. If it’s possible to get rid of some of those chains and create opportunities for small business ideas to flourish, do it.

But that means a complete u-turn for the Tories with their focus on the profits of Whetherspoons, Pret, et al.

So, kill off many service industries and public transport in cities and their huge supply chains, and replace with what? I don't disagree that it looks likely, but just making the problem statement and some partial outcome (destroy multinationals ) doesn't really help. I suspect you are talking in the 10's of millions of jobs, and restructuring the economy overnight in effect- quick search says 85% of UK workforce works in the service industries (a broad brush, but you get the picture).

Let’s take, for example, the train companies. They have been fighting with their unions for years to try and reduce the workforce to make more profit. No guards means worse service for the users, so it can’t be argued that this is a fight driven by anything other than corporate greed and making the companies sole purpose to make profit for their shareholders.

New regulations demanding minimum 2 guards on each train and suddenly running fewer trains doesn’t reduce the workforce. Ditto adding more staff back into stations, as if you have a problem you press a button, wait until your train comes and leave it still ringing. That’s appalling service.

Of course, those companies will scream it’s unfair and many will just leave, so those services will need to be denationalized, which makes sense as it’sa natural monopoly and those do not work in the interests of their users.

Offer many of those others who have gone from being underpaid “baristas”, in inverted commas because most of those chains couldn’t make a nice cup of coffee to save their life, the opportunity to retrain as, for example, a va. That puts them firmly in the service industry but one that is growing like hell and one where many small businesses and entrepreneurs are looking for high quality, native speaking vas to take work of them. They’ll generally get paid more than they were getting, I believe three ball park figure for a native va is around £10/h.

There’s a lot more but I’m not an economist to be able to dig deep into the figures, not that most economists are scientists anymore.

Not certain what a va is (virtual assistant) but there had better be a shed load of vacancies for them if it’s going to solve the problem. You’d also better hope that people with a poor education attainment and possibly poor English language skills can do these new jobs. Further, you’d also better hope that the numerous managers, head office staff etc, in both the city centre jobs and supply chains are happy to drop down to £10p/h. There are so many jobs directly and indirectly tied in to people commuting into cities to work that it’ll be beyond any govt, competent or otherwise, to manage the transition, especially in any timescale such a scenario would require.
As for an extra guard on each train and more staff at stations, if people don’t commute for work then there will hardly be any trains. Those that do run for peoples pleasure and leisure will be absurdly expensive, unless heavily subsidised by the (now highly indebted) state, and people will move to their car.

[Digby]

people will move to their car.

As they increasingly can't afford a house/flat

[Which Tyler]

I see the lovely Mr Hancock has re-written history to suggest that the government did follow SAGE's advice to lockdown on the 16th.
Do they genuinely believe this double-think? or they forgotten that A] people have brains, B] Google exists, C] written records exist?

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/20 ... orrorshow/