COVID19

[Banquo]

I’m with puja here. If it’s possible to get rid of some of those chains and create opportunities for small business ideas to flourish, do it.

But that means a complete u-turn for the Tories with their focus on the profits of Whetherspoons, Pret, et al.

So, kill off many service industries and public transport in cities and their huge supply chains, and replace with what? I don't disagree that it looks likely, but just making the problem statement and some partial outcome (destroy multinationals ) doesn't really help. I suspect you are talking in the 10's of millions of jobs, and restructuring the economy overnight in effect- quick search says 85% of UK workforce works in the service industries (a broad brush, but you get the picture).

Let’s take, for example, the train companies. They have been fighting with their unions for years to try and reduce the workforce to make more profit. No guards means worse service for the users, so it can’t be argued that this is a fight driven by anything other than corporate greed and making the companies sole purpose to make profit for their shareholders.

New regulations demanding minimum 2 guards on each train and suddenly running fewer trains doesn’t reduce the workforce. Ditto adding more staff back into stations, as if you have a problem you press a button, wait until your train comes and leave it still ringing. That’s appalling service.

Of course, those companies will scream it’s unfair and many will just leave, so those services will need to be denationalized, which makes sense as it’sa natural monopoly and those do not work in the interests of their users.

Offer many of those others who have gone from being underpaid “baristas”, in inverted commas because most of those chains couldn’t make a nice cup of coffee to save their life, the opportunity to retrain as, for example, a va. That puts them firmly in the service industry but one that is growing like hell and one where many small businesses and entrepreneurs are looking for high quality, native speaking vas to take work of them. They’ll generally get paid more than they were getting, I believe three ball park figure for a native va is around £10/h.

There’s a lot more but I’m not an economist to be able to dig deep into the figures, not that most economists are scientists anymore.

Not true on guards- I've been using guardless trains on commutes for years on a generally excellent service. Train companies make tiny profits in general btw. In your scenario with declining footfall on the trains, existing fixed costs on rolling stock leases etc, and more staff, no-one in their right minds, including govt would want to run them. I assume you mean renationalised, but then you are in a scenario where tax payers are likely to hugely subsidise others travel needs.

What's a va?

anyway, the point I am making is really about how quickly you can utterly reshape perhaps 85% of the economy. It needs more than an aspiration and some ideology about breaking up global entities. Not that I have any answers

[Mellsblue]

To me, the sensible option is a wholesale change of the working week/routine. No more 8 - 6, Monday to Friday. People spending eg 3 days in the office over seven days a week, starting earlier or later, dependent on their life styles would be a happy medium. This was on its way, regardless; though, probs without it being spread over seven days.
I don’t say this solely to save Pret etc but there are numerous industries where it is impossible to solely work from home and most must surely be finding it inefficient. I know I am and, speaking to friends, many others are, too.

[Banquo]

If working in city centre and public transport service industries are dinosaur industries then a very large part of the UK’s entire economic model is completely fecked. Think of the list that are highly predicated on commuters:
food outlets
cleaners
taxi drivers
security/concierge
pubs/bars
tube/train workers
bus drivers
refuse workers
the supply chain for all of the above

That's kinda where I came in. If commuting is over, or even mostly over, there's gonna be a lot of industries and jobs going bye-bye and, if we've got a choice between artificially trying to keep those industries alive and giving people a basic income that will allow them to cover basic needs so they can retrain, start a business, go back to education, etc, then I'm all for the latter.

You mean "learn the lessons from the 80s in favour of repeating the same mistakes and condemning cities to the same fate as mining / manufacturing towns for decades to come"?

It'll never happen

ETA & IMO, if a sector has died, then it's died (whether that's office-based work and it's support industry, whatever AI ends up replacing, or anything else).
Government's job is to manage the transition to something else; not to simply support it without an eye on replacement, or to kill it dead at a stroke.

It won't be easy, and I don't have any answers (I like UBI, but it's not an "answer"). Anyone who though governing is easy shouldn't be in government (even though a cursory look at our cabinet would suggest otherwise )[/quote]
That's very fair, especially true on 'sector death'- GPs for example could well be all but redundant with the convergence of AI and diagnostics in the mid-term. But dying a natural death vs a forced death is a balance that's needs striking. Maybe this has just accelerated the inevitable loss of work that technology and the need to be green would deliver anyway.

[Which Tyler]

That's very fair, especially true on 'sector death'- GPs for example could well be all but redundant with the convergence of AI and diagnostics in the mid-term. But dying a natural death vs a forced death is a balance that's needs striking. Maybe this has just accelerated the inevitable loss of work that technology and the need to be green would deliver anyway.

That's basically my take on it - the tech has existed for a few years to allow a lot of WFH - not all, by any stretch, but enough to make a huge difference on a national scale - even a 10% change over a decade would be tough to manage - this could well see a 50% change happening inside a year.
Government should really have had a plan in place to manage the transition, but A] were too busy with other things, like infighting, leadership contests and Brexit B] don't particularly want to put plans in place for an uncertain future time when they may not hold the reigns of power and C] aren't that competent to start with.

Both the move towards WFH and the rise of AI were already taking place - the former has been sped up massively by lockdown - shown up both some strengths and weaknesses of it; and will fairly quickly become more practicable for more people.

[Banquo]

That's very fair, especially true on 'sector death'- GPs for example could well be all but redundant with the convergence of AI and diagnostics in the mid-term. But dying a natural death vs a forced death is a balance that's needs striking. Maybe this has just accelerated the inevitable loss of work that technology and the need to be green would deliver anyway.

That's basically my take on it - the tech has existed for a few years to allow a lot of WFH - not all, by any stretch, but enough to make a huge difference on a national scale - even a 10% change over a decade would be tough to manage - this could well see a 50% change happening inside a year.
Government should really have had a plan in place to manage the transition, but A] were too busy with other things, like infighting, leadership contests and Brexit B] don't particularly want to put plans in place for an uncertain future time when they may not hold the reigns of power and C] aren't that competent to start with.

Both the move towards WFH and the rise of AI were already taking place - the former has been sped up massively by lockdown - shown up both some strengths and weaknesses of it; and will fairly quickly become more practicable for more people.

I'm not sure a plan for the speed of this potential transition is/was possible tbh, but it seems that plan a is to assume we can get back to 'bau' from all sides, either by getting everyone back doing what they were (not going to happen) or to prop up every sector until such time as you...don't. If no vaccine appears or some treatment which is effective, many sectors that aren't 'dinosaurs' may suffer the same fate as dinosaurs.

Home working is definitely accelerated- just spoke to a mate of mine who I thought would never work from home in a million years, very old school in a very old school culture (though a very modern and adaptable business), who have all embraced working from home, find it more productive and are closing their offices in Mayfair and all the execs are working from home, and most PA's laid off. Incidentally, he also told me of a lucky escape for his brother, who was due to be at a box at Cheltenham (yes, that meeting), but was poorly; everyone who was a guest in that box is now dead. Chilling.

[Digby]

Communes the way forward then? We can put Raggs in charge with his background in hippy communities

[Banquo]

Communes the way forward then? We can put Raggs in charge with his background in hippy communities

Raggs to wretched?

[Mellsblue]

To add to the list of statistical balls ups, PHE have been registering anyone who has ever tested positive for COVID and who later dies as having died of COVID. No check on what they actually died of, just added to the list of COVID deaths.

[Digby]

Communes the way forward then? We can put Raggs in charge with his background in hippy communities

Raggs to wretched?

something about this seems inferior

[Galfon]

To add to the list of statistical balls ups, PHE have been registering anyone who has ever tested positive for COVID and who later dies as having died of COVID. No check on what they actually died of, just added to the list of COVID deaths.

Couldn't make it up.. (unlike the numbers it seems, from some quarters.)
Just adds to the impression that all along we have been comparing apples with oranges, with regard to wine production.

[Sandydragon]

To add to the list of statistical balls ups, PHE have been registering anyone who has ever tested positive for COVID and who later dies as having died of COVID. No check on what they actually died of, just added to the list of COVID deaths.

Couldn't make it up.. (unlike the numbers it seems, from some quarters.)
Just adds to the impression that all along we have been comparing apples with oranges, with regard to wine production.

The government has been in the back foot over stats for months. Only deaths in hospitals certified by doctors are going to be completely accurate over the cause. Carehome deaths probably are but there is less certainty and ditto home deaths.

But this takes the biscuit.

[Sandydragon]

That's very fair, especially true on 'sector death'- GPs for example could well be all but redundant with the convergence of AI and diagnostics in the mid-term. But dying a natural death vs a forced death is a balance that's needs striking. Maybe this has just accelerated the inevitable loss of work that technology and the need to be green would deliver anyway.

That's basically my take on it - the tech has existed for a few years to allow a lot of WFH - not all, by any stretch, but enough to make a huge difference on a national scale - even a 10% change over a decade would be tough to manage - this could well see a 50% change happening inside a year.
Government should really have had a plan in place to manage the transition, but A] were too busy with other things, like infighting, leadership contests and Brexit B] don't particularly want to put plans in place for an uncertain future time when they may not hold the reigns of power and C] aren't that competent to start with.

Both the move towards WFH and the rise of AI were already taking place - the former has been sped up massively by lockdown - shown up both some strengths and weaknesses of it; and will fairly quickly become more practicable for more people.

I'm not sure a plan for the speed of this potential transition is/was possible tbh, but it seems that plan a is to assume we can get back to 'bau' from all sides, either by getting everyone back doing what they were (not going to happen) or to prop up every sector until such time as you...don't. If no vaccine appears or some treatment which is effective, many sectors that aren't 'dinosaurs' may suffer the same fate as dinosaurs.

Home working is definitely accelerated- just spoke to a mate of mine who I thought would never work from home in a million years, very old school in a very old school culture (though a very modern and adaptable business), who have all embraced working from home, find it more productive and are closing their offices in Mayfair and all the execs are working from home, and most PA's laid off. Incidentally, he also told me of a lucky escape for his brother, who was due to be at a box at Cheltenham (yes, that meeting), but was poorly; everyone who was a guest in that box is now dead. Chilling.

It’s time to work out how to adapt to a more flexible future. It would also be good for the environment. But we must keep Pret going. Apparently.

[Galfon]

Home by Xmas ?. - should have specified which year really..

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-53488142

As sure as eggs-is-eggs,  cases will rise if there's more mingling with no vacc, they're on a wing and a prayer about the effects of that it seems:
uk on the up..romania quadrupled..spain trebled..france,holland,denmark,belgium
doubled(ish) in recent weeks.
..global cases haven't even peaked yet.

The next battle will be convincing peeps of the advantages of returning to the workplace and accepting fast-track vaccines., and the old society v. self die-lemur.

All that personal welf (there is lots of this apparently) will need divvying out a wee bit more - but will they come quietly ?

[Son of Mathonwy]

New ONS numbers up to 10 Jul are out, so as of that date we have:
Positive test UK Covid-19 deaths: 44,650
All UK Covid-19 deaths (ONS number): 55,460
So the total UK number is 24% higher than the government number.

Excess deaths compared with 5 year average to 10 Jul: 63,943
which is 43% higher than the government number.

[Mellsblue]

Prof Whitty confirming that the R0 rate was dropping even before lockdown and that they had no comprehension of how quickly it would rip through old people’s homes. Scottish epidemiologist saying that other than one possible case in Oz there is no evidence of child to teacher transmission in the world and, therefore, coupled with how unaffected kids are, schools shouldn’t have been shut (for those under 16).
Just shows how blind we were going in to this and how the elderly, particularly those with dementia, and the young have been shafted.

[Sandydragon]

Prof Whitty confirming that the R0 rate was dropping even before lockdown and that they had no comprehension of how quickly it would rip through old people’s homes. Scottish epidemiologist saying that other than one possible case in Oz there is no evidence of child to teacher transmission in the world and, therefore, coupled with how unaffected kids are, schools shouldn’t have been shut (for those under 16).
Just shows how blind we were going in to this and how the elderly, particularly those with dementia, and the young have been shafted.

FFS, how to undermine support for any future lockdown!

The rate was dropping because people were locking themselves down. London was like a ghost town before the official lockdown took force.

[Mellsblue]

Prof Whitty confirming that the R0 rate was dropping even before lockdown and that they had no comprehension of how quickly it would rip through old people’s homes. Scottish epidemiologist saying that other than one possible case in Oz there is no evidence of child to teacher transmission in the world and, therefore, coupled with how unaffected kids are, schools shouldn’t have been shut (for those under 16).
Just shows how blind we were going in to this and how the elderly, particularly those with dementia, and the young have been shafted.

FFS, how to undermine support for any future lockdown!

The rate was dropping because people were locking themselves down. London was like a ghost town before the official lockdown took force.

Tbf, that info was already out in the public domain, hence ‘confirming’. I think Prof Shagger was the first to go public on R4 a few weeks ago. He also has to answer a question truthfully if asked, surely.

[Sandydragon]

Prof Whitty confirming that the R0 rate was dropping even before lockdown and that they had no comprehension of how quickly it would rip through old people’s homes. Scottish epidemiologist saying that other than one possible case in Oz there is no evidence of child to teacher transmission in the world and, therefore, coupled with how unaffected kids are, schools shouldn’t have been shut (for those under 16).
Just shows how blind we were going in to this and how the elderly, particularly those with dementia, and the young have been shafted.

FFS, how to undermine support for any future lockdown!

The rate was dropping because people were locking themselves down. London was like a ghost town before the official lockdown took force.

Tbf, that info was already out in the public domain, hence ‘confirming’. I think Prof Shagger was the first to go public on R4 a few weeks ago. He also has to answer a question truthfully if asked, surely.

Of course he has to provide a truthful answer, but he could add additional information such as there being an unofficial lockdown prior to the official one.

[Mellsblue]

FFS, how to undermine support for any future lockdown!

The rate was dropping because people were locking themselves down. London was like a ghost town before the official lockdown took force.

Tbf, that info was already out in the public domain, hence ‘confirming’. I think Prof Shagger was the first to go public on R4 a few weeks ago. He also has to answer a question truthfully if asked, surely.

Of course he has to provide a truthful answer, but he could add additional information such as there being an unofficial lockdown prior to the official one.

He might have. I just read a report, not a transcript. The report noted he said that lockdown was still the correct call.

[Stom]

Prof Whitty confirming that the R0 rate was dropping even before lockdown and that they had no comprehension of how quickly it would rip through old people’s homes. Scottish epidemiologist saying that other than one possible case in Oz there is no evidence of child to teacher transmission in the world and, therefore, coupled with how unaffected kids are, schools shouldn’t have been shut (for those under 16).
Just shows how blind we were going in to this and how the elderly, particularly those with dementia, and the young have been shafted.

We were lucky to have a few weeks of school, but it’s over now until September. And as a lot of Hungarians immediately went in holiday abroad as soon as travel restrictions were loosened, a spike is inevitable in a few weeks time. Just hope it doesn’t last until September!!!

[Sandydragon]

Tbf, that info was already out in the public domain, hence ‘confirming’. I think Prof Shagger was the first to go public on R4 a few weeks ago. He also has to answer a question truthfully if asked, surely.

Of course he has to provide a truthful answer, but he could add additional information such as there being an unofficial lockdown prior to the official one.

He might have. I just read a report, not a transcript. The report noted he said that lockdown was still the correct call.

I'm assuming he said more than that one line in the interview. Sadly the media pick up on one liners.

[Son of Mathonwy]

Can't find the source, but the Mail says R was 2.3 just before lockdown. Which is well above 1, which was why the lockdown was necessary.

I think the Mail is presenting a falling* rate of infection and assuming many of its readers won't be able to distinguish this from a falling number of infections. All in an attempt to undermine support for lockdowns.


* falling, but still at a level to cause exponential growth.

[Galfon]

o-o-h-h the okey cokey !!..
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-53540691

More pain for travellers and travel companies; presumably quaranteen means another 2 weeks off on return. (interesting discussion with your boss there.)
If uk wide, not sure of the need for duplicate announcements from devolved regions.

[Banquo]

o-o-h-h the okey cokey !!..
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-53540691

More pain for travellers and travel companies; presumably quaranteen means another 2 weeks off on return. (interesting discussion with your boss there.)
If uk wide, not sure of the need for duplicate announcements from devolved regions.

Japan having a clear second wave too, somewhat concerning. I did think those jetting off to Spain etc were a little optimistic.

[Digby]

What are the rights of companies about workers heading off on holiday of they might need to be absent from work for an additional 14 days on returning?