WaspInWales wrote:Digby wrote:WaspInWales wrote:I've seen quite a few Tweets about lifelong GOP voters saying they'll be voting for Biden come the election. I wonder how much is just lip-service though. No doubt a few are decent folk with genuine concerns, but traditional GOP voters are getting what they want with Trump, and the more bat-shit crazy ones are over the moon that the POTUS pushes qanon bollocks.
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If you're a social and fiscal conservative you're getting little to nothing from Trump, they wouldn't have wanted the Tea Party, they sure as shit wouldn't want what they have now. And traditionally the GOP was for conservatives, there's nothing especially traditional about the lurch to the right that started back under Reagan
Be interesting to get MP or Coco's feedback on this as I think quite a few Trump voters are probably happy with things...even if some may not admit to it
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That's another group again, those who will cite the achievements of Trump when it comes to the economy (albeit that often requires one ignore reality and/or be thick as shit), or when it comes to pro life positions, appointing conservative judges, being strong on NATO and the WHO, and then rank all that ahead of Trump's character, justifying a vote for him based on what he does rather than what he says. Like the Dems it's hardly one amorphous mass who all think the same.
Those who will not admit to being likely Trump voters can be a problem when it comes to polling, but you can correct for that. As well as asking who an individual will vote for, and many people will not admit they're going to vote Trump for fear of being judged deplorable, you can ask who they're family and/or friends are likely to vote for and if they then say Trump your model can account for the idea that who a person's social circle votes for is a big indicator of who they will vote for even if they don't want to admit it. It's basically pollsters granting permission structures for people to say what they're really going to do. So in theory, and they did cock up the polling models in 2016, those saying they're not going to vote Trump but actually doing just that shouldn't swing the outcome being predicted too much, though what's being predicted I still think will shift/narrow