Trump

[Puja]

What's the Biden story about?

Hunter took an laptop to be recycled, the owner of the computer shop copied that hard drive and sold it to Giuliani, and it turns out that Hunter once sent an e-mail to Joe saying, "Hey you should have lunch with this guy I'm on the board of Burisma with."

Gasp.

There doesn't appear to be any evidence that Joe accepted this invitation or that any meeting ever happened. This is clearly a smoking gun.

Puja

[morepork]

Guliani, legal mastermind to the stars.


Somebody please make it stop.

[morepork]

Ice Cube, what have you done...

[Puja]

Ice Cube, what have you done...

To be fair, his explanation makes sense - he's trying to effect change and he has talked to both parties to try and get it. Just Donald's campaign has decided to publically thank him for working with them.

Puja

[Digby]

What campaign pledges did Mr Cube draw from Donny? Why would Mr Cube believe any such pledge?

[morepork]

Ice Cube, what have you done...

To be fair, his explanation makes sense - he's trying to effect change and he has talked to both parties to try and get it. Just Donald's campaign has decided to publically thank him for working with them.

Puja

And that's all Donald's campaign will do. The whole initiative was a cynical last minute play for the black vote, promising to throw money at them, from a manifestly systemically racist administration that is more than likely a lame duck.

Yeah, back that. Sound plan.

[Puja]

What campaign pledges did Mr Cube draw from Donny? Why would Mr Cube believe any such pledge?

Probably bugger all, but M.Cube esq wasn't the one who publicised anything about the conversation. Morepork's got it right, I reckon.

Puja

[Digby]

What campaign pledges did Mr Cube draw from Donny? Why would Mr Cube believe any such pledge?

Probably bugger all, but M.Cube esq wasn't the one who publicised anything about the conversation. Morepork's got it right, I reckon.

Puja

If being generous one might allow he hoped to bring about a dialogue because on most issues there has to be bipartisan support

[morepork]

What campaign pledges did Mr Cube draw from Donny? Why would Mr Cube believe any such pledge?

Probably bugger all, but M.Cube esq wasn't the one who publicised anything about the conversation. Morepork's got it right, I reckon.

Puja

If being generous one might allow he hoped to bring about a dialogue because on most issues there has to be bipartisan support

I mean, what dumb fuck would take the word of anything that orange dumb fuck has to say:


" President Donald Trump announced the administrations’ “Platinum Plan,” an initiative for Blacks that would designate Antifa and the KKK as terrorist organizations, make lynching a national hate crime, and increase capital in Black communities by $500 billion. The plan would also allow Black churches to compete for federal resources for their communities, improve homeownership opportunities, and provide literacy resources for Blacks. "

Designating ANTIFA a terrorist organisation is the only thing that they could claim to be genuinely motivated for.

The fact that the Klan is not designated as a terrorist organisation is a massive stain on this country. The fact that it is a mere card to be played to achieve point #1 tells you all you need to know.

It took about 120 years, but congress pushed an anti lynching bill through in Feb this year, and it seemed a formality to be passed into law but was held up in the senate by Rand Paul (on the day of George Floyds funeral). Once he has had bitty and a nap senate will vote it into law and the Presidunce will sign it. In other words, the work has already been done. Just quite why it took a modern industrialised nation over 100 years to do so is a mystery to me, but Trump wants to claim that he did all the work. Again, a bargaining chip for demonising the terrifying Antifa boogeyman and taking heat of the white cracker armed to the teeth cosplay crowd. I can almost guarantee that in front of a different audience, he would have proposed designated BLM as a terrorist organisation and the white genocide nutters would all cum in their camo pants.

There has been absolutely no elaboration on a budget that would allocate 500 billion to black communities. Zero. Nada. Zilch. In the interim he is paying fuck knows how much to stop the courts compelling him releasing his taxes and fuck knows how much more to have lawyers work at dismantling the ACA. Priorities.

Mr. Cube backed the wrong horse, and I just cannot for the life of me why he would think it would be a productive or constructive relationship.

[Digby]

Mr. Cube backed the wrong horse, and I just cannot for the life of me why he would think it would be a productive or constructive relationship.

On the off chance he's worth a few pennies I'd be willing to take a guess. Though there does need to be more discussion between the parties, and most attempts to foster that are going to crash and burn.

[WaspInWales]

A couple of questions for MP, and/or anyone else living in the US or with a good understanding of their elections and turnouts..

Pretty much every prediction for the electoral college result has Biden winning comfortably, or in some cases a landslide. Very few predict a Trump win.

Trump and his base continually bring up 'the silent majority'...the pro-Trump voters who don't poll. How likely is it that these exist in enough numbers to make a difference?

When I look through the replies to Trump's tweets, it's always the same accounts offering the most vocal support and some of those are probably bots. There doesn't seem to be any noticeable change in numbers for his support, although there seems to be more people calling him a twat.

Also, what kind of turnout is expected and how does that relate to 2016?

Is there any indication as to how early voters (in person) have voted? Is the media reporting they're pro or anti-Trump?

As much as the polls are suggesting the result, didn't most do the same with Clinton in 2016? How reliable are these numbers?

I'd fucking laugh my cock off if not only Biden wins, but the Dems take the Senate too. What's the odds on that happening too?



Sent from my SM-N960F using Tapatalk

[Puja]

A couple of questions for MP, and/or anyone else living in the US or with a good understanding of their elections and turnouts..

Pretty much every prediction for the electoral college result has Biden winning comfortably, or in some cases a landslide. Very few predict a Trump win.

Trump and his base continually bring up 'the silent majority'...the pro-Trump voters who don't poll. How likely is it that these exist in enough numbers to make a difference?

When I look through the replies to Trump's tweets, it's always the same accounts offering the most vocal support and some of those are probably bots. There doesn't seem to be any noticeable change in numbers for his support, although there seems to be more people calling him a twat.

Also, what kind of turnout is expected and how does that relate to 2016?

Is there any indication as to how early voters (in person) have voted? Is the media reporting they're pro or anti-Trump?

As much as the polls are suggesting the result, didn't most do the same with Clinton in 2016? How reliable are these numbers?

I'd fucking laugh my cock off if not only Biden wins, but the Dems take the Senate too. What's the odds on that happening too?

One thing which I've noted from my reading on the subject is that Clinton's loss was actually within hte polling margin of error. She was up big nationally, but only 2% in all the swing states and lost most of them by 1% or so. It looked like a big shock, but wasn't that far off. Apparently the pollsters didn't control their survey sizes by education in the same way they did race/wealth/gender, etc, so they missed his support base amongst white people without a college degree.

I think there are shy Trump voters, but I don't think there's enough - they're the people who answer "Don't know" on polls and give Biden a 12 point poll lead that's 52% to 40% rather than 52% to 48%.

Turnout could be weird due to COVID, but the queues round the block and 14m early votes being cast already (compared to 500k in total in 2016) suggest that the vote is being gotten out. No news on who people are voting for though.

Dems are favourite for the Senate - they're going to lose one seat in Alabama (cause the Democrat who won there by 1% last time is now no longer running against a literal paedophile, so he's stuffed), but they're likely to flip 4 other seats, which is what they'd need to get to 51-49 (even 50-50 would be good enough if Biden wins as ties are broken by the VP), and have a puncher's chance in about 3-4 other races.

Puja

[morepork]

Most people I know in the Philly/NJ/NY area have already voted by mail (it was made easy). I don't talk about it at work because I aren't interested in getting in the mud over possible nut jobs. I may be compelled to remonstrate with the back of my hand. The silent majority thing sounds a bit too Qanon for my taste. The only demographic that would remotely approach that would be really wealthy pricks for whom low tax and deregulation is the sole motivator. These people aren't exactly in the majority, and STFU because they know they are being selfish. Some will hide behind cries of SOCIALISM! but that is nonsense. There is a greater appetite to vote this time around. I read that the number of votes cast thus far this year are roughly 10 times higher than at the same point in 2016. For the swing states, the educated and underserved populations in urban centers are definitely not going orange, and they will make the difference. There is nowhere near the level of bile against Biden as there was against Clinton. The Trump train crash is going hammer and tongs to promote the Hunter Biden corruption social media meme in the hope of replicating the James Comey saying Hill-Dog had sensitive emails on her private server thing, which probably did for her in 2016. This time around Guiliani is on the job, so I'm not expecting gold standard political espionage.

[Digby]

A couple of questions for MP, and/or anyone else living in the US or with a good understanding of their elections and turnouts..

Pretty much every prediction for the electoral college result has Biden winning comfortably, or in some cases a landslide. Very few predict a Trump win.

Trump and his base continually bring up 'the silent majority'...the pro-Trump voters who don't poll. How likely is it that these exist in enough numbers to make a difference?

When I look through the replies to Trump's tweets, it's always the same accounts offering the most vocal support and some of those are probably bots. There doesn't seem to be any noticeable change in numbers for his support, although there seems to be more people calling him a twat.

Also, what kind of turnout is expected and how does that relate to 2016?

Is there any indication as to how early voters (in person) have voted? Is the media reporting they're pro or anti-Trump?

As much as the polls are suggesting the result, didn't most do the same with Clinton in 2016? How reliable are these numbers?

I'd fucking laugh my cock off if not only Biden wins, but the Dems take the Senate too. What's the odds on that happening too?

One thing which I've noted from my reading on the subject is that Clinton's loss was actually within hte polling margin of error. She was up big nationally, but only 2% in all the swing states and lost most of them by 1% or so. It looked like a big shock, but wasn't that far off. Apparently the pollsters didn't control their survey sizes by education in the same way they did race/wealth/gender, etc, so they missed his support base amongst white people without a college degree.

I think there are shy Trump voters, but I don't think there's enough - they're the people who answer "Don't know" on polls and give Biden a 12 point poll lead that's 52% to 40% rather than 52% to 48%.

Turnout could be weird due to COVID, but the queues round the block and 14m early votes being cast already (compared to 500k in total in 2016) suggest that the vote is being gotten out. No news on who people are voting for though.

Dems are favourite for the Senate - they're going to lose one seat in Alabama (cause the Democrat who won there by 1% last time is now no longer running against a literal paedophile, so he's stuffed), but they're likely to flip 4 other seats, which is what they'd need to get to 51-49 (even 50-50 would be good enough if Biden wins as ties are broken by the VP), and have a puncher's chance in about 3-4 other races.

Puja

Also pollsters are asking better questions now than who will you vote for. Now if you want to mislead around who you'll vote for you also need to misrepresent your answer to who your friends and family will vote for.

That said it's not outside the margin of error for Trump to win as things stand, it's just about a third more unlikely than last time that it was unlikely

[paddy no 11]

if you didnt vote trump first time round then there's absolutely nothing to go on to encourage to warrant people jumping to his side and a lot of people must be sick shit of him

he'll lose the popular vote by an even bigger margin this time and hopefully that translates into a beating

I dont think he'll win

[Digby]

I agree, but I didn't think he could win a nomination or election. And so many foul acts haven't dented his appeal as you'd think they should

[paddy no 11]

I agree, but I didn't think he could win a nomination or election. And so many foul acts haven't dented his appeal as you'd think they should

Surely he's lost voters but you just wouldn't hear it through the hysteria....i'm hopeful at least

It'd be some indictment of humanity if this scumbag gets returned

[Sandydragon]

I agree, but I didn't think he could win a nomination or election. And so many foul acts haven't dented his appeal as you'd think they should

Surely he's lost voters but you just wouldn't hear it through the hysteria....i'm hopeful at least

It'd be some indictment of humanity if this scumbag gets returned

The fact he was elected in the first place is a sad indictment. Re-election just makes it worse. I’m hoping that people wise up this time but I won’t be betting the mortgage on a good result.

[Sandydragon]

Sadly our method isn’t that different. I never used to be a fan of PR, I’m changing my mind as I get older.

[Stom]

Sadly our method isn’t that different. I never used to be a fan of PR, I’m changing my mind as I get older.

Oh, it's a lot better than the US system.

It's much harder to gerrymander in the UK because there's this wonderful thing called an Electoral Commission.

[Digby]

Surely he's lost voters but you just wouldn't hear it through the hysteria....i'm hopeful at least

It'd be some indictment of humanity if this scumbag gets returned

The fact he was elected in the first place is a sad indictment. Re-election just makes it worse. I’m hoping that people wise up this time but I won’t be betting the mortgage on a good result.

It’s a demonstration on how broken the US Electoral College system is. No functioning system would be won by the candidate that got 3000000 fewer votes than the one that lost. What in the actual fuck.

There is if you're a Republican in New York or a Democrat in Alabama you rather know in advance there's little possible return on casting your vote. Thus claims around winning the popular vote aren't to be bought hook, line and sinker.

Also given gerrymandering, and 2 seats per state in the Senate, and no statehood for Puerto Rica and Washington DC there are bigger problems for the Democrats outside the general than the electoral college within the general. That said I'd still have each state assign electoral college votes on a % basis, I wouldn't allow all the votes to go for the winner, any rounding would go in favour of the winner.

[Puja]

Sadly our method isn’t that different. I never used to be a fan of PR, I’m changing my mind as I get older.

Oh, it's a lot better than the US system.

It's much harder to gerrymander in the UK because there's this wonderful thing called an Electoral Commission.

Meanwhile, MMP is specifically designed to eliminate gerrymandering.

I am hugely envious of the Kiwi system.

Puja

[Stom]

Sadly our method isn’t that different. I never used to be a fan of PR, I’m changing my mind as I get older.

Oh, it's a lot better than the US system.

It's much harder to gerrymander in the UK because there's this wonderful thing called an Electoral Commission.

Meanwhile, MMP is specifically designed to eliminate gerrymandering.

Yeah, we have that here. Appalling gerrymandering. The town next over belongs to a district that is a really weird shape so it can include a load of villages who overwhelmingly vote for the government, quashing the vote of the two main towns, which overwhelmingly vote green (well, not actually green, but green lite).

[Sandydragon]

With the ongoing arguments over how to implement covid restrictions between regional and national governments, this is surely an opportunity for a review of how government is implemented in the UK. An English Parliament might not be the answer, but regional assemblies could be effective instead, with a reduced function for the HOC.

[Digby]

With the ongoing arguments over how to implement covid restrictions between regional and national governments, this is surely an opportunity for a review of how government is implemented in the UK. An English Parliament might not be the answer, but regional assemblies could be effective instead, with a reduced function for the HOC.

It's been reviewed and super forecasting by Agent Cummings and Goings was the answer, the UK's answer to Stephen Miller to wrangle this back to a Trump narrative