Brexit delayed

[Stom]

Also no way at our place that soy sauce lasts as long as the Marmite, partly because I'm the only one that uses the Marmite, and whilst the marmite is probably used more per week it's not used in similar quantities

Well indeed, but a traditional English cooking system probably uses soy very sparingly. I know my parents probably have a bottle left from 1999...

I also get through soy very quickly but it’s not £3 a bottle here, that’s for sure, and our vat is higher than the Uk.

I'd use it in traditional British cooking, certainly something like a beef stew, though I might be more inclined to use Worcestershire. But also all sort of dishes whether Japanese, Chinese, Malay, American, West Indian... probably used in greater quantities in marinades than in actual seasoning

Well indeed.

But I never cook the right amount of rice, so fried rice is common in my house. And for good fried rice you need a boat load of soy...

I can't say I use it in stews or cottage pie, etc. That's what Worcester is for. You're only looking for that umami bomb, and Wuss gives it in far greater quantities than Soy thanks to the oysters. If I need a little extra kick, I'm more likely to add some fish sauce and/or dried mushrooms.

[Digby]

I can't say I use it in stews or cottage pie, etc. That's what Worcester is for. You're only looking for that umami bomb, and Wuss gives it in far greater quantities than Soy thanks to the oysters. If I need a little extra kick, I'm more likely to add some fish sauce and/or dried mushrooms.

I'd mostly use the Wuss, but soy a little bit different, and different is good sometimes just 'cause. But different is better if used in ingredients for a stew rather than leaving a trading bloc just 'cause

[Stom]

I can't say I use it in stews or cottage pie, etc. That's what Worcester is for. You're only looking for that umami bomb, and Wuss gives it in far greater quantities than Soy thanks to the oysters. If I need a little extra kick, I'm more likely to add some fish sauce and/or dried mushrooms.

I'd mostly use the Wuss, but soy a little bit different, and different is good sometimes just 'cause. But different is better if used in ingredients for a stew rather than leaving a trading bloc just 'cause

Oh, of course, there's no good reason to leave a trading block...

But might this have a knock on effect on Worcester sauce production? I don't imagine they source all their ingredients from the UK. I thought I'd heard the oyster sauce comes from elsewhere...

Knock on effects all over the place. Interestingly, though, the forint has absolutely disintegrated, so the pound hasn't dropped against it, it's even better than 6 months ago.

[Digby]

Interestingly, though, the forint has absolutely disintegrated, so the pound hasn't dropped against it, it's even better than 6 months ago.

Your comments on the forint remain all filler

[Galfon]

Must admit to being more Salvadorian than Oriental in approach to relish, and prefer a dab of Wuss in many savoury dishes rather than Soy.With L&P now owned by Kraft/Heinz (US), but still making it down in Wuss, I just hope quality or supplies aren't compromised post-Brexit, especially if there's a change in the White House and the Irish border question gets muddled.

[Digby]

If not Trump and we can't do a deal with Trump, ignoring Trump's deal might have been crap and might not have cleared Congress, what do we do next on Brexit if we can't present a US trade deal and pretend it's the emperor's clothes?

We're basically out of time to get anything of note signed off by 27 nations, we're being very clear we will not seek an extension, so wtf do we even try and do next?

[Stom]

If not Trump and we can't do a deal with Trump, ignoring Trump's deal might have been crap and might not have cleared Congress, what do we do next on Brexit if we can't present a US trade deal and pretend it's the emperor's clothes?

We're basically out of time to get anything of note signed off by 27 nations, we're being very clear we will not seek an extension, so wtf do we even try and do next?

Boris will bumble through a deal of some description.

[Galfon]

Barnier's finally hinting at some compromise on uk fishing rights & Bozza's talking to VdL tomorrow. It's still going to be messy.

[fivepointer]

If not Trump and we can't do a deal with Trump, ignoring Trump's deal might have been crap and might not have cleared Congress, what do we do next on Brexit if we can't present a US trade deal and pretend it's the emperor's clothes?

We're basically out of time to get anything of note signed off by 27 nations, we're being very clear we will not seek an extension, so wtf do we even try and do next?

Boris will bumble through a deal of some description.

They'll cobble something together to at least save face. It will be bare bones and not satisfy anyone much. Expect the ERG ultras to get very exercised about some condition or other.

[Digby]

If not Trump and we can't do a deal with Trump, ignoring Trump's deal might have been crap and might not have cleared Congress, what do we do next on Brexit if we can't present a US trade deal and pretend it's the emperor's clothes?

We're basically out of time to get anything of note signed off by 27 nations, we're being very clear we will not seek an extension, so wtf do we even try and do next?

Boris will bumble through a deal of some description.

They'll cobble something together to at least save face. It will be bare bones and not satisfy anyone much. Expect the ERG ultras to get very exercised about some condition or other.

Thin Brexit has been mooted for a while, but even that's going to prove tricky now. And we're seriously looking at backed up ports during a pandemic and economic disaster along with any other number of problems. If Poland or Greece want to add something daft in their interest at this late stage how on earth do we negotiate around that? There just aren't the days left

[Stom]

If not Trump and we can't do a deal with Trump, ignoring Trump's deal might have been crap and might not have cleared Congress, what do we do next on Brexit if we can't present a US trade deal and pretend it's the emperor's clothes?

We're basically out of time to get anything of note signed off by 27 nations, we're being very clear we will not seek an extension, so wtf do we even try and do next?

Boris will bumble through a deal of some description.

They'll cobble something together to at least save face. It will be bare bones and not satisfy anyone much. Expect the ERG ultras to get very exercised about some condition or other.

I sincerely hope the EU insist on clauses on freedom of movement. It will be wonderful to see Boris backed into that corner.

[Stom]

Boris will bumble through a deal of some description.

They'll cobble something together to at least save face. It will be bare bones and not satisfy anyone much. Expect the ERG ultras to get very exercised about some condition or other.

Thin Brexit has been mooted for a while, but even that's going to prove tricky now. And we're seriously looking at backed up ports during a pandemic and economic disaster along with any other number of problems. If Poland or Greece want to add something daft in their interest at this late stage how on earth do we negotiate around that? There just aren't the days left

Honestly, Trump going is so wonderful in that respect. Could really have major repercussions for countries like Poland, Hungary, Belarus, Turkey, etc...

[Galfon]

'Slim' would be generous at this stage.
Should Frost/Barnier ever agree, then approval needed by:
UK Parliament, EU Council, EU Parliament, EU National/Regional parliaments.
Plenty of anti-Brexit sentiment in there it seems.
(Think it may need translating into French for the Fra Parliament to agree..will that be by British translators, or is it the other way round ? )
2021 has a tough act to follow but all seems set fair.

**updated:
'Mr Barnier..claimed member states had backed his plan to fast-track the ratification process by ensuring only EU leaders and MEPS will have a say on the final agreement.
The EU Parliament is set to hold an emergency session on December 28 to give its approval.' [bbc]

[Digby]

https://committees.parliament.uk/commit ... committee/

It's somehow still surprising, and yet it shouldn't be when whether one likes the idea or not the move to being not remotely ready for Brexit has been a farce.

[Son of Mathonwy]

https://committees.parliament.uk/commit ... committee/

It's somehow still surprising, and yet it shouldn't be when whether one likes the idea or not the move to being not remotely ready for Brexit has been a farce.

Thought process: I don't fancy that, they can't make me do it, therefore....

Breaks the 4th principle:
https://www.gov.uk/government/publicati ... ic-life--2

The amazing thing is that the Tories are supposed to make business a priority. Surely this will cost them in the long run?

[Digby]

https://committees.parliament.uk/commit ... committee/

It's somehow still surprising, and yet it shouldn't be when whether one likes the idea or not the move to being not remotely ready for Brexit has been a farce.

Thought process: I don't fancy that, they can't make me do it, therefore....

Breaks the 4th principle:
https://www.gov.uk/government/publicati ... ic-life--2

The amazing thing is that the Tories are supposed to make business a priority. Surely this will cost them in the long run?

The thinking on the last seemingly remains so much new business will come in it'll more than offset our potential/likely loss of trade with the EU. I don't see how that works, and we've undertaken no strategies to make it likely that even could happen anyway, but I'm wrong often enough to be wrong here no matter how odd it looks to me. And there's a new confidence they can now blame any failings on covid additionally to remoaners and the EU

[Son of Mathonwy]

https://committees.parliament.uk/commit ... committee/

It's somehow still surprising, and yet it shouldn't be when whether one likes the idea or not the move to being not remotely ready for Brexit has been a farce.

Thought process: I don't fancy that, they can't make me do it, therefore....

Breaks the 4th principle:
https://www.gov.uk/government/publicati ... ic-life--2

The amazing thing is that the Tories are supposed to make business a priority. Surely this will cost them in the long run?

The thinking on the last seemingly remains so much new business will come in it'll more than offset our potential/likely loss of trade with the EU. I don't see how that works, and we've undertaken no strategies to make it likely that even could happen anyway, but I'm wrong often enough to be wrong here no matter how odd it looks to me. And there's a new confidence they can now blame any failings on covid additionally to remoaners and the EU

I don't think you're wrong. I expect half of the cabinet know the UK will be worse off but that's not the point as long as they can stick the blame on someone else, win the next election and keep enriching and ennobling themselves, their friends, relations and donors. Brexit was just an election strategy for Boris, after all.

Personally I'd say this is eroding* their reputation as the party that's good for business.


* to put it mildly.

[Digby]

Thought process: I don't fancy that, they can't make me do it, therefore....

Breaks the 4th principle:
https://www.gov.uk/government/publicati ... ic-life--2

The amazing thing is that the Tories are supposed to make business a priority. Surely this will cost them in the long run?

The thinking on the last seemingly remains so much new business will come in it'll more than offset our potential/likely loss of trade with the EU. I don't see how that works, and we've undertaken no strategies to make it likely that even could happen anyway, but I'm wrong often enough to be wrong here no matter how odd it looks to me. And there's a new confidence they can now blame any failings on covid additionally to remoaners and the EU

I don't think you're wrong. I expect half of the cabinet know the UK will be worse off but that's not the point as long as they can stick the blame on someone else, win the next election and keep enriching and ennobling themselves, their friends, relations and donors. Brexit was just an election strategy for Boris, after all.

Personally I'd say this is eroding* their reputation as the party that's good for business.


* to put it mildly.

Or to put it as Boris puts it, fuck business

[Son of Mathonwy]

The thinking on the last seemingly remains so much new business will come in it'll more than offset our potential/likely loss of trade with the EU. I don't see how that works, and we've undertaken no strategies to make it likely that even could happen anyway, but I'm wrong often enough to be wrong here no matter how odd it looks to me. And there's a new confidence they can now blame any failings on covid additionally to remoaners and the EU

I don't think you're wrong. I expect half of the cabinet know the UK will be worse off but that's not the point as long as they can stick the blame on someone else, win the next election and keep enriching and ennobling themselves, their friends, relations and donors. Brexit was just an election strategy for Boris, after all.

Personally I'd say this is eroding* their reputation as the party that's good for business.


* to put it mildly.

Or to put it as Boris puts it, fuck business

They're neo-Tories. Blair turned Labour into soft Tories. Boris has turned his lot into soft-Ukip.

[Galfon]

Joint statement from Frosty & Barney (tweets)


Over to Bozza..

[Digby]

Whilst I still like the idea of taking the ball truly to the line in rugby, of taking a risk and looking to play, I still heavily dislike the idea of doing similar with a national economy. As is I can only hope some of these bastards are the first against the wall come the revolution

[Zhivago]

I can accept a temporary no deal under the following circumstances:

• - Macron doesn't budge on the ludicrous fishing demands - it's not unreasonable for us to expect a similar arrangement to Norway here
  - If the EU still insists on unilateral judgement on State Aid rules, demands strict compliance from us, but expects EU funding to be exempt
  - If it's only temporary at the beginning of the new year and helps us get a better deal which will last long term.

No deal can only be acceptable as a short term move to strengthen our negotiating position on these crucial positions.

[Digby]

No deal is the stupidest thing we can do to secure a better long term deal. The instant that happens we'll be left with the prospect of deals by sector one tranche at a time. And that allows the EU time to gear up to take a lot of our financial services away from us, something they presently cannot practically do, not even close, and if we agreed a sensible deal now that would hugely limit their capacity to reduce our market share over the next 10-20 years.

I'm more than willing to concede we shouldn't be so reliant on financial services, but it is a massive part of our economy for better or worse, and yet it's an area that seemingly is far less important than fish, and fish is about as important to the economy as to me finding a £5 note in the pocket of some jeans I've not worn for months, it'd buy a pint but it's essentially meaningless

If we're going to go no deal and proceed to get service stripped then we really need a plan to deliver a long term restructure of the economy, one that involves delivery of infrastructure from travel through to power on a grand scale, that massively alters our educational delivery and we simply don't have any of that in place, not even the merest hint it might happen at some point in the future. And in any event it'd have been a good idea to get this sorted before going ahead and smashing apart the financial services part of our economy. It's weird, it's stupid, and in advance I can't see why it even could work.

[Zhivago]

No deal is the stupidest thing we can do to secure a better long term deal. The instant that happens we'll be left with the prospect of deals by sector one tranche at a time. And that allows the EU time to gear up to take a lot of our financial services away from us, something they presently cannot practically do, not even close, and if we agreed a sensible deal now that would hugely limit their capacity to reduce our market share over the next 10-20 years.

I'm more than willing to concede we shouldn't be so reliant on financial services, but it is a massive part of our economy for better or worse, and yet it's an area that seemingly is far less important than fish, and fish is about as important to the economy as to me finding a £5 note in the pocket of some jeans I've not worn for months, it'd buy a pint but it's essentially meaningless

If we're going to go no deal and proceed to get service stripped then we really need a plan to deliver a long term restructure of the economy, one that involves delivery of infrastructure from travel through to power on a grand scale, that massively alters our educational delivery and we simply don't have any of that in place, not even the merest hint it might happen at some point in the future. And in any event it'd have been a good idea to get this sorted before going ahead and smashing apart the financial services part of our economy. It's weird, it's stupid, and in advance I can't see why it even could work.

Given that less than 15% is productive lending, and the rest goes towards speculation and asset inflation then I would argue that it's not in question whether it's for better or worse. I would be surprised if no deal would impact productive lending, so a reduction in harmful bank activity would probably be one of the only positive things of a no deal.

Don't mistake my post for a pro no deal post. We should not be naive though - Macron wants to make an example of us by fucking us over.

[Digby]

Only an idiot would structure our economy as it is. But you can't just flip a switch and change that, unless I suppose that switch is to wreak havoc on the economy, that you could probably do quickly. Sensible corrective action is going to take money, serious thought and lots of time and commitment though, and we've established none of that.

That being the case we do need a deal because it's going to take years if not a few decades to shift emphasis even if we decide to set about making a change in the balance of our economy, and right now we've not even started. Right now financial are what we have, and there's no point complaining about that in isolation, and frankly there's little point complaining about Macron having a focus on a domestic audience, it's not like we haven't heard plenty about no deal not being a problem, that we hold all the cards, Brexit means Brexit, get Brexit done, Macron is just joining in our game and if team Brexit want to take the piss with their nonsense they should at least have the gumption not to get upset when someone takes the piss back. Else they'd just look like cheap hypocritical wankers. And actually we've invited this position where Macron is playing to a domestic audience, and I'm not surprised at what Macron has said, even if it's not useful to us, if anything I'm surprised more people/countries haven't done similar.