COVID19

[morepork]

BTW, that 10% efficiency is because the new strain is very contagious but very weak and the vaccine doesn't do much against covid with minor symptoms?

What about the British strain? Isn't that also very virulent but not very powerful? Could we be seeing the virus mutating into a milder illness? There was a lot of talk about that before. If it really does end up like the common cold in 5-6 months, will the vaccine drive continue? Will the drug companies push for a vaccine to be administered even if it is relatively ineffective?

At least we're seeing some progress on combating the virus. Good news is always welcome.

Virulence = damage to the host. It can be both more infectious and less virulent, more infectious and more virulent, or more infectious and the same virulence. I don't think the new variants are particularly more virulent, yet, but the rate at we are hosting this fucker for extended periods makes the worse combination of infectivity and virulence a little more likely than astronomically impossible. Hold onto your hats.

[Stom]

BTW, that 10% efficiency is because the new strain is very contagious but very weak and the vaccine doesn't do much against covid with minor symptoms?

What about the British strain? Isn't that also very virulent but not very powerful? Could we be seeing the virus mutating into a milder illness? There was a lot of talk about that before. If it really does end up like the common cold in 5-6 months, will the vaccine drive continue? Will the drug companies push for a vaccine to be administered even if it is relatively ineffective?

At least we're seeing some progress on combating the virus. Good news is always welcome.

Virulence = damage to the host. It can be both more infectious and less virulent, more infectious and more virulent, or more infectious and the same virulence. I don't think the new variants are particularly more virulent, yet, but the rate at we are hosting this fucker for extended periods makes the worse combination of infectivity and virulence a little more likely than astronomically impossible. Hold onto your hats.

Sorry, got confused with the term :p Less virulent but more infectious.

Is that what you're seeing?

Hospitalisation rate is down, death rate once they get to hospital is down, and then this 10% efficiency because it's less virulent? Seems to be weakening, although it could be that people are just more aware (though considering the general uselessness of most populations, I somehow doubt that).

[morepork]

BTW, that 10% efficiency is because the new strain is very contagious but very weak and the vaccine doesn't do much against covid with minor symptoms?

What about the British strain? Isn't that also very virulent but not very powerful? Could we be seeing the virus mutating into a milder illness? There was a lot of talk about that before. If it really does end up like the common cold in 5-6 months, will the vaccine drive continue? Will the drug companies push for a vaccine to be administered even if it is relatively ineffective?

At least we're seeing some progress on combating the virus. Good news is always welcome.

Virulence = damage to the host. It can be both more infectious and less virulent, more infectious and more virulent, or more infectious and the same virulence. I don't think the new variants are particularly more virulent, yet, but the rate at we are hosting this fucker for extended periods makes the worse combination of infectivity and virulence a little more likely than astronomically impossible. Hold onto your hats.

Sorry, got confused with the term :p Less virulent but more infectious.

Is that what you're seeing?

Hospitalisation rate is down, death rate once they get to hospital is down, and then this 10% efficiency because it's less virulent? Seems to be weakening, although it could be that people are just more aware (though considering the general uselessness of most populations, I somehow doubt that).

10% efficacy means in this instance that the vaccine only prevents mild to moderate illness in 10 out of 100 people vaccinated. Old/comorbidity situation unknown. If it is still causing illness in 80% of people vaccinated, then the vaccine is likely not very good at preventing infection, which is the whole aim of the exercise. How to hobble a vaccination program before it even starts. Textbook fuckwittery.

[Stom]

Virulence = damage to the host. It can be both more infectious and less virulent, more infectious and more virulent, or more infectious and the same virulence. I don't think the new variants are particularly more virulent, yet, but the rate at we are hosting this fucker for extended periods makes the worse combination of infectivity and virulence a little more likely than astronomically impossible. Hold onto your hats.

Sorry, got confused with the term :p Less virulent but more infectious.

Is that what you're seeing?

Hospitalisation rate is down, death rate once they get to hospital is down, and then this 10% efficiency because it's less virulent? Seems to be weakening, although it could be that people are just more aware (though considering the general uselessness of most populations, I somehow doubt that).

10% efficacy means in this instance that the vaccine only prevents mild to moderate illness in 10 out of 100 people vaccinated. Old/comorbidity situation unknown. If it is still causing illness in 80% of people vaccinated, then the vaccine is likely not very good at preventing infection, which is the whole aim of the exercise. How to hobble a vaccination program before it even starts. Textbook fuckwittery.

What you're saying is that the vaccine is only protecting 10 people or that it's only protecting 10 people against mild or moderate symptoms but protects 80% against serious symptoms?

And by hobbling the program you mean these reports coming out or that the vaccine doesn't work or something else?

Sorry, you're one of my sources of information, lol, just trying to get my head around it.

[morepork]

Sorry, got confused with the term :p Less virulent but more infectious.

Is that what you're seeing?

Hospitalisation rate is down, death rate once they get to hospital is down, and then this 10% efficiency because it's less virulent? Seems to be weakening, although it could be that people are just more aware (though considering the general uselessness of most populations, I somehow doubt that).

10% efficacy means in this instance that the vaccine only prevents mild to moderate illness in 10 out of 100 people vaccinated. Old/comorbidity situation unknown. If it is still causing illness in 80% of people vaccinated, then the vaccine is likely not very good at preventing infection, which is the whole aim of the exercise. How to hobble a vaccination program before it even starts. Textbook fuckwittery.

What you're saying is that the vaccine is only protecting 10 people or that it's only protecting 10 people against mild or moderate symptoms but protects 80% against serious symptoms?

And by hobbling the program you mean these reports coming out or that the vaccine doesn't work or something else?

Sorry, you're one of my sources of information, lol, just trying to get my head around it.

80 out of 100 people vaccinated will get sick. Only 10 people will avoid disease. That's shyte.

Hobbling as in spending squillions on developing vaccines specific for the coronavirus spike protein only to find that because so many people have been flying around the globe with gay abandon and when the vaccines are finally available we have shuttled genetic variants that make slightly different proteins that likely avoid detection by the antibodies generated in vaccinated individuals and these variants are now becoming the dominant strains wot was not the dominant strains when the genetic sequence of the vaccines were generated.

Muppets.

[Stom]

On the point of "booster jabs", how many young people actually have the flu jab every year or at all?

Does this suggest they're looking toward a similar situation to the flu jab?

[morepork]

On the point of "booster jabs", how many young people actually have the flu jab every year or at all?

Does this suggest they're looking toward a similar situation to the flu jab?

Please be aware I charge by the hour.

Flu boosters are given because the virus is constantly mutating meaning last years vaccine is not as effective against this years variant, so an up to date vaccine is required for efficacy. The Covid vaccines have two doses because clinical trials indicate repeat exposure to the antigen prime the immune system better than a single dose. Both doses are the same formulation. The issue currently is that this formulation may not be as effective against new variants...a situation akin to different flu variants from year to year.

[Stom]

On the point of "booster jabs", how many young people actually have the flu jab every year or at all?

Does this suggest they're looking toward a similar situation to the flu jab?

Please be aware I charge by the hour.

Flu boosters are given because the virus is constantly mutating meaning last years vaccine is not as effective against this years variant, so an up to date vaccine is required for efficacy. The Covid vaccines have two doses because clinical trials indicate repeat exposure to the antigen prime the immune system better than a single dose. Both doses are the same formulation. The issue currently is that this formulation may not be as effective against new variants...a situation akin to different flu variants from year to year.

Well sure, but if it's like a flu jab and no young people or people outside of the US really get flu jabs...

[Sandydragon]

On the point of "booster jabs", how many young people actually have the flu jab every year or at all?

Does this suggest they're looking toward a similar situation to the flu jab?

Please be aware I charge by the hour.

Flu boosters are given because the virus is constantly mutating meaning last years vaccine is not as effective against this years variant, so an up to date vaccine is required for efficacy. The Covid vaccines have two doses because clinical trials indicate repeat exposure to the antigen prime the immune system better than a single dose. Both doses are the same formulation. The issue currently is that this formulation may not be as effective against new variants...a situation akin to different flu variants from year to year.

What, nothing for a 15 minute quickie?

[Son of Mathonwy]

UK coronavirus variant on target to become the dominant variant in the US:


As of January of 2021, the highly transmissible B.1.1.7 variant of SARS-CoV-2, which was first identified in the United Kingdom (U.K.), has gained a strong foothold across the world. Because of the sudden and rapid rise of B.1.1.7, we investigated the prevalence and growth dynamics of this variant in the United States (U.S.), tracking it back to its early emergence and onward local transmission. We found that the RT-qPCR testing anomaly of S gene target failure (SGTF), first observed in the U.K., was a reliable proxy for B.1.1.7 detection. We sequenced 212 B.1.1.7 SARS-CoV-2 genomes collected from testing facilities in the U.S. from December 2020 to January 2021. We found that while the fraction of B.1.1.7 among SGTF samples varied by state, detection of the variant increased at a logistic rate similar to those observed elsewhere, with a doubling rate of a little over a week and an increased transmission rate of 35-45%. By performing time-aware Bayesian phylodynamic analyses, we revealed several independent introductions of B.1.1.7 into the U.S. as early as late November 2020, with onward community transmission enabling the variant to spread to at least 30 states as of January 2021. Our study shows that the U.S. is on a similar trajectory as other countries where B.1.1.7 rapidly became the dominant SARS-CoV-2 variant, requiring immediate and decisive action to minimize COVID-19 morbidity and mortality.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 21251159v1


*NOTE: this data has yet complete peer review, but is in the process of doing so....data are real.

This is what happens when you keep borders unregulated during a viral pandemic. No fucking surprises there. We are actively promoting advantageous genetic drift and it will for sure render vaccines less effective. How all very depressingly predictable.

The Tory party's gift to the world.

[Son of Mathonwy]

New ONS numbers up to 29 Jan are out, so as of that date we have:
Positive test UK Covid-19 deaths (headline gov number): 104,371
All UK Covid-19 per death certificate (ONS number): 121,674
So the Covid-19 death certificate number is 17% higher than the government number.

Excess deaths compared with 5 year average to 29 Jan: 110,682
which is 6% higher than the government number.

This is interesting, as the government number has been catching up with the excess deaths number through the second wave. My totally speculative thinking (because I lack the detailed numbers) would be something like this: during Winter, a significant number of people always die of respiratory diseases, particularly Influenza. This Winter however, many who would have been expected to die of the flu are actually dying of Covid-19. Also, the extra precautions taken to fight Covid (lockdown, masks, social distancing etc) will have reduced the incidence of influenza considerably. So in recent weeks the deaths linked to Covid-positive tests exceeds the total excess deaths (compared with the last 5 years). (NB this is educated guesswork)

To get an estimate for the total excess deaths as of 9 Feb, start with the excess deaths for 29 Jan and add the government number for the subsequent days: this give us approx 120,000 excess deaths in the UK since the start of the pandemic.

[Sandydragon]

New ONS numbers up to 29 Jan are out, so as of that date we have:
Positive test UK Covid-19 deaths (headline gov number): 104,371
All UK Covid-19 per death certificate (ONS number): 121,674
So the Covid-19 death certificate number is 17% higher than the government number.

Excess deaths compared with 5 year average to 29 Jan: 110,682
which is 6% higher than the government number.

This is interesting, as the government number has been catching up with the excess deaths number through the second wave. My totally speculative thinking (because I lack the detailed numbers) would be something like this: during Winter, a significant number of people always die of respiratory diseases, particularly Influenza. This Winter however, many who would have been expected to die of the flu are actually dying of Covid-19. Also, the extra precautions taken to fight Covid (lockdown, masks, social distancing etc) will have reduced the incidence of influenza considerably. So in recent weeks the deaths linked to Covid-positive tests exceeds the total excess deaths (compared with the last 5 years). (NB this is educated guesswork)

To get an estimate for the total excess deaths as of 9 Feb, start with the excess deaths for 29 Jan and add the government number for the subsequent days: this give us approx 120,000 excess deaths in the UK since the start of the pandemic.

its guesswork, but there is a logic behind the argument that fewer people will have died from the flu due to covid and the precautions taken. I seem to recall that someone from the NHS made that statement a month or 2 ago.

[Digby]

The numbers dying of flu is a worryingly low, in that the rate of incidence is so low it's causing a problem developing the new season's jab.

[morepork]

The numbers dying of flu is a worryingly low, in that the rate of incidence is so low it's causing a problem developing the new season's jab.

You mean they are not able to sample enough to identify dominant upcoming strains?

[Digby]

The numbers dying of flu is a worryingly low, in that the rate of incidence is so low it's causing a problem developing the new season's jab.

You mean they are not able to sample enough to identify dominant upcoming strains?

Yep, and this is a known thing to governments right now so they don't get to say in x months time nobody could have seen a problem coming, it is obviously being looked at and we'll see what we see

[Which Tyler]

This is interesting, as the government number has been catching up with the excess deaths number through the second wave. My totally speculative thinking (because I lack the detailed numbers) would be something like this: during Winter, a significant number of people always die of respiratory diseases, particularly Influenza.

When you look at the graphs, it's fairly obvious.
There's that 5 week period in April where deaths not-attributed to Covid were spiking significantly at the same time as deaths attributed to Cvoid were spiking - this spike in unattributed (IIRC, there was a convenient spike in "pneumnia"deaths there) magically disappeared once the ONS started releasing the figures (mid-May), rather than Mr Hancock.
We all "knew" in April that people were dying of Covid, but that it wasn't being recorded that way (for example, my Aunt Joy who I posted on here about).
That 5 week period saw an extra 13,336 people die of officially non-covid causes - this in a year where non-covid deaths have been below the average, and often setting a new 5-year low, the vast majority of weeks.

This means that the real number of covid deaths is a good 13k higher than the official government figures.

You can also see that non-covid deaths are particularly below the normal from November onwards, when flu season usually starts. On top of that, we're repeatedly told that this year's flu season has been ridiculously low (guardian reports 1/20 normal, friend who's a hospital admin in the US says about 1/30).
This is remarkably unsurprising, and had been predicted by most people from the start - the measures that work to reduce the spread of coronavirus are exactly the same as reduce the spread of influenza virus.

Covid Deaths.jpg

[Son of Mathonwy]

This is interesting, as the government number has been catching up with the excess deaths number through the second wave. My totally speculative thinking (because I lack the detailed numbers) would be something like this: during Winter, a significant number of people always die of respiratory diseases, particularly Influenza.

When you look at the graphs, it's fairly obvious.
There's that 5 week period in April where deaths not-attributed to Covid were spiking significantly at the same time as deaths attributed to Cvoid were spiking - this spike in unattributed (IIRC, there was a convenient spike in "pneumnia"deaths there) magically disappeared once the ONS started releasing the figures (mid-May), rather than Mr Hancock.
We all "knew" in April that people were dying of Covid, but that it wasn't being recorded that way (for example, my Aunt Joy who I posted on here about).
That 5 week period saw an extra 13,336 people die of officially non-covid causes - this in a year where non-covid deaths have been below the average, and often setting a new 5-year low, the vast majority of weeks.

This means that the real number of covid deaths is a good 13k higher than the official government figures.

You can also see that non-covid deaths are particularly below the normal from November onwards, when flu season usually starts. On top of that, we're repeatedly told that this year's flu season has been ridiculously low (guardian reports 1/20 normal, friend who's a hospital admin in the US says about 1/30).
This is remarkably unsurprising, and had been predicted by most people from the start - the measures that work to reduce the spread of coronavirus are exactly the same as reduce the spread of influenza virus.
Covid Deaths.jpg

Yes. And it's good that the Government number is catching up on the excess deaths figure (albeit by accident). The Government were very happy to use a number that they knew was underestimating the pandemic impact. How must they be feeling that their number is approaching and may even overshoot the excess deaths number? I expect they'll start emphasising the importance of the excess deaths number the moment a crossover occurs.

[Sandydragon]

This is interesting, as the government number has been catching up with the excess deaths number through the second wave. My totally speculative thinking (because I lack the detailed numbers) would be something like this: during Winter, a significant number of people always die of respiratory diseases, particularly Influenza.

When you look at the graphs, it's fairly obvious.
There's that 5 week period in April where deaths not-attributed to Covid were spiking significantly at the same time as deaths attributed to Cvoid were spiking - this spike in unattributed (IIRC, there was a convenient spike in "pneumnia"deaths there) magically disappeared once the ONS started releasing the figures (mid-May), rather than Mr Hancock.
We all "knew" in April that people were dying of Covid, but that it wasn't being recorded that way (for example, my Aunt Joy who I posted on here about).
That 5 week period saw an extra 13,336 people die of officially non-covid causes - this in a year where non-covid deaths have been below the average, and often setting a new 5-year low, the vast majority of weeks.

This means that the real number of covid deaths is a good 13k higher than the official government figures.

You can also see that non-covid deaths are particularly below the normal from November onwards, when flu season usually starts. On top of that, we're repeatedly told that this year's flu season has been ridiculously low (guardian reports 1/20 normal, friend who's a hospital admin in the US says about 1/30).
This is remarkably unsurprising, and had been predicted by most people from the start - the measures that work to reduce the spread of coronavirus are exactly the same as reduce the spread of influenza virus.
Covid Deaths.jpg

Stats are notoriously difficult sometimes.

The husband of a friend of ours died recently from covid. He had recently been diagnosed with a brain tumour and had 3-6 months to live. He caught covid whilst in hospital and the medics began to treat him. However, he decided that he would rather die from covid than go through what a brain tumour would bring for him.

So technically he died from covid. There is a high chance he could have been saved, but decided not to let that happen because of the tumour.

[Son of Mathonwy]

This is interesting, as the government number has been catching up with the excess deaths number through the second wave. My totally speculative thinking (because I lack the detailed numbers) would be something like this: during Winter, a significant number of people always die of respiratory diseases, particularly Influenza.

When you look at the graphs, it's fairly obvious.
There's that 5 week period in April where deaths not-attributed to Covid were spiking significantly at the same time as deaths attributed to Cvoid were spiking - this spike in unattributed (IIRC, there was a convenient spike in "pneumnia"deaths there) magically disappeared once the ONS started releasing the figures (mid-May), rather than Mr Hancock.
We all "knew" in April that people were dying of Covid, but that it wasn't being recorded that way (for example, my Aunt Joy who I posted on here about).
That 5 week period saw an extra 13,336 people die of officially non-covid causes - this in a year where non-covid deaths have been below the average, and often setting a new 5-year low, the vast majority of weeks.

This means that the real number of covid deaths is a good 13k higher than the official government figures.

You can also see that non-covid deaths are particularly below the normal from November onwards, when flu season usually starts. On top of that, we're repeatedly told that this year's flu season has been ridiculously low (guardian reports 1/20 normal, friend who's a hospital admin in the US says about 1/30).
This is remarkably unsurprising, and had been predicted by most people from the start - the measures that work to reduce the spread of coronavirus are exactly the same as reduce the spread of influenza virus.
Covid Deaths.jpg

Stats are notoriously difficult sometimes.

The husband of a friend of ours died recently from covid. He had recently been diagnosed with a brain tumour and had 3-6 months to live. He caught covid whilst in hospital and the medics began to treat him. However, he decided that he would rather die from covid than go through what a brain tumour would bring for him.

So technically he died from covid. There is a high chance he could have been saved, but decided not to let that happen because of the tumour.

Poor guy.

This shows (one of the reasons) why the excess deaths number is the best one to use.

[Which Tyler]

Covid Deaths.jpg

Just a quick note on the above "Boris Johnson battles experts to save Christmas" and "Boris Johnson says ‘we did everything we could’"

NHS has released figures that 101,956 people were in hospital being treated for Covid in January*.
For perspective, the entirety of 2020 saw 242,307 people in hospital being treated for Covid.

Officially, 2020 saw 80,830 people die of Covid (realistically 94k)
Less than 6 weeks of 2021 has seen 41,496 people died of Covid (unconfirmed as final figures are about 2 weeks behind)





* Government numbers are actually higher, at 112,958, with a further 15,252 in the first week of February
ETA: I think I've partially worked it out, if you look at 02-29 of January (4 weeks) gives 104k. Of course, some new admissions may be counted twice as the same patient is admitted to one hospital, and then moved to another when a bed becomes available

[Galfon]

Some positive news in the fight:
'Tocilizumab (Roche), trade name RoActemra, is an anti-inflammatory monoclonal antibody, approved globally for the treatment of rheumatoid arthritis among other conditions..
..The RECOVERY trial has demonstrated a 14% reduction in relative mortality and a 5-day reduction in hospital stays when tocilizumab is used in addition to standard of care. This is an absolute difference of 4%.'

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/thou ... -treatment

Hopefully Cost/supply matters won't be an ongoing factor.

[Galfon]

The UK xs death trend appeared pretty close to the norm since the initial onslaught, compared to some other countries in N & C Europe., looking at ft figures.
https://www.ft.com/__origami/service/im ... &width=490

The recent Covid d/rate has been amongst the worst but the very low season flu numbers will have compensated possibly.
The lockdown/vaccination response appears to be bringing dividends rapidly now so it will interesting to see how it pans out in a few months.
The usual clamour for opening schools & other businesses seems like Groundhog day with a nasty sting.

[morepork]

I notice that the compulsory quarantine for returning UK residents is guided by a red list of countries to which borders are closed that includes much of the African and South American continents but not the USA. Or any Western European nation. Nice one. That should stop the virus in its tracks.

[Which Tyler]

I notice that the compulsory quarantine for returning UK residents is guided by a red list of countries to which borders are closed that includes much of the African and South American continents but not the USA. Or any Western European nation. Nice one. That should stop the virus in its tracks.

Be fair Morepork, there's bound to be teething troubles and unforseen problems, they've only had... erm... 380 days to plan for this.

[Son of Mathonwy]

I notice that the compulsory quarantine for returning UK residents is guided by a red list of countries to which borders are closed that includes much of the African and South American continents but not the USA. Or any Western European nation. Nice one. That should stop the virus in its tracks.

Be fair Morepork, there's bound to be teething troubles and unforseen problems, they've only had... erm... 380 days to plan for this.

Those foreign variants will never beat our own British variant.