COVID19

[Stom]

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.u ... -final.pdf

Is that saying that under 30 you shouldn't have the vaccine and under 40 it's iffy whether you should have it or not?

Oh, there's 2 other tables, that makes more sense.

[morepork]

Vaccinating under 30's should be a major goal, as those fuckers travel/shag lots and are massive vectors for spread. You'll just get waves of the pest every generation if you don't nuke them.


On a related note, nice to see the UK add India to the Red List at the last possible minute but the USA remains exempt.


Fucking clowns.

[Which Tyler]

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.u ... -final.pdf

Is that saying that under 30 you shouldn't have the vaccine and under 40 it's iffy whether you should have it or not?

Oh, there's 2 other tables, that makes more sense.

Yeah, the above is explicilty when the incidence rate is low - it's also more nuanced than that - on the left hand side it's taking into account herd immunity, long covid, or hospitalisation with complications of covid - or, for that matter, hospitalisation with covid that doesn't require ICU.
On the right hand side it doesn;t take into account of the gender balance of CVT as an adverse event.

Of course, it's also exclusively talking about the risks and benefits of AstraZeneca - other brands ARE available

[Which Tyler]

This doesn't really fit here, but may not deserve a thread of its own.

A different Oxford vaccine is proving effective against Malaria, humanity's biggest killer. 77% effective in children!

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/ ... faso-trial

Obviously small scale trial so far - but if it can be repeated in larger trials, this is massive

[Son of Mathonwy]

This doesn't really fit here, but may not deserve a thread of its own.

A different Oxford vaccine is proving effective against Malaria, humanity's biggest killer. 77% effective in children!

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/ ... faso-trial

Obviously small scale trial so far - but if it can be repeated in larger trials, this is massive

That is brilliant.

[bruce]

Good news I'm now of an age to get my vaccine. Bad news when trying to book online the only centre they offer is an hour and a half away in a different county..despite their being a local hospital which do vaccinations within walking distance. Not exactly making this easy.

[morepork]

Fuck Florida: Case in point #522:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-56905752

Nothing like a good bit of deregulation in private education. How else would you make money off these rich fools?

[Which Tyler]

12 year old neice is ill with Covid - severe but not hospitalising yet

[paddy no 11]

You've had a bad run of ig Aidan, hope the little one recovers fully

[Donny osmond]

12 year old neice is ill with Covid - severe but not hospitalising yet

Sorry to see that mate, fingers crossed I'm sure all will be well.

Sent from my CPH1951 using Tapatalk

[Stom]

So the government here are introducing covid passports. However...they're not issuing them based on whether you're "immune" or not infectious. And it's being challenged in the supreme court because it breaks the constitution.

You can tell it does so because if you get vaccinated outside of Hungary, you cannot get the passport. And as soon as you're vaccinated inside Hungary, you get it, even though you're very much neither immune nor uninfectious immediately (or never, it doesn't really do that, either).

This is because...the Hungarian government isn't the one buying the vaccines, or at least it doesn't appear to be. The vaccines are being bought at market rate by Orban's pet, Lorinc Meszaros, and sold onto the government at a markup.

However, this also brings with it another issue...

People are insanely stupid over this. They're getting all hysterical about why anyone is challenging this and why can't they go out and do whatever they want as they've already had the vaccine!

OMG, the sheer insanity here.

Oh, it also turns out, I'm unable to get the vaccine passport even if I had the vaccine (went to register yesterday, when I found this out), thanks to Brexit.

[Galfon]

Seem to be a few contradictions with the vaccination programme:
- Highest dose rate in Europe (after uk obvs) at c.60 doses/100 residents, Ger 35, eu 32.5.
- The national vaccination certificate will not state which type of jab was administered (reportedly).
- Only EU country inoculating citizens with the Russian Sputnik and Chinese Sinopharm jabs, both of which are not authorised by the EMA.
- Comfortably highest death rate in Europe 2.87 k/Million pop, way higher than earlier front-runners Bel 2.08 & UK 1.87

Recent outcomes do indicate a bit of a bag of spanners.

[Galfon]

Bound to happen..
Can't see everyone adhering to the 10-day self-isolation after all this, so we can expect a newbie to establish itself soon.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-56984057

[Which Tyler]

Like this, you mean?

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/ ... ay-experts

Indian Covid variant calls in question 17 May reopening in UK, say experts

Highly transmissible B.1.617.2 is now second most common variant and is spreading in north-west England

The dramatic rise in UK cases of a variant first discovered in India could undermine the country’s roadmap for reopening, scientists are cautioning.

The variant, called B.1.617.2, is one of three closely related variants that were initially detected in India. Public Health England designated it a “variant of concern” on Friday, acknowledging it appears to be at least as transmissible as the dominant so-called Kent variant in the UK. It is unclear if and to what extent B.1.617.2 can reduce vaccine effectiveness.

...

Article continues​

[Son of Mathonwy]

Like this, you mean?

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/ ... ay-experts

Indian Covid variant calls in question 17 May reopening in UK, say experts

Highly transmissible B.1.617.2 is now second most common variant and is spreading in north-west England

The dramatic rise in UK cases of a variant first discovered in India could undermine the country’s roadmap for reopening, scientists are cautioning.

The variant, called B.1.617.2, is one of three closely related variants that were initially detected in India. Public Health England designated it a “variant of concern” on Friday, acknowledging it appears to be at least as transmissible as the dominant so-called Kent variant in the UK. It is unclear if and to what extent B.1.617.2 can reduce vaccine effectiveness.

...

Article continues​

Given his previous, I'm not expecting Johnson to be cautious about the reopening.

[Donny osmond]

Someone's been busy...

https://www.economist.com/briefing/2021 ... e-pandemic



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[Which Tyler]

Sage seem pretty clear about whether we should be opening up on Monday

[Sandydragon]

Boris has been quite cautious in his wording this week so I suspect if infection rates rise quickly (and if they translate into hospital admissions) then things will pause. June 21st isn’t set in stone yet.

[Donny osmond]

All pause in Glasgow and Moray. Currently localised cases of the 'Indian' variant but everyone is expecting a more widespread outbreak. And, if we're being honest, we should really have expected this. And we should really keep expecting it, the virus is here to stay.

Sent from my CPH1951 using Tapatalk

[Banquo]

Boris has been quite cautious in his wording this week so I suspect if infection rates rise quickly (and if they translate into hospital admissions) then things will pause. June 21st isn’t set in stone yet.

he said IF the variant proves to have a significant advantage to the 'kent' strain, then further measures over and above surge testing and targeted vaccination will be brought in. I'd hope they consider regional lock downs again, as well.

[morepork]

Boris has been quite cautious in his wording this week so I suspect if infection rates rise quickly (and if they translate into hospital admissions) then things will pause. June 21st isn’t set in stone yet.

he said IF the variant proves to have a significant advantage to the 'kent' strain, then further measures over and above surge testing and targeted vaccination will be brought in. I'd hope they consider regional lock downs again, as well.

I'm sure a team of recent MBA graduates are all over developing an infectious titer assay to quantify that significant advantage.

Fuck me.

[Banquo]

Boris has been quite cautious in his wording this week so I suspect if infection rates rise quickly (and if they translate into hospital admissions) then things will pause. June 21st isn’t set in stone yet.

he said IF the variant proves to have a significant advantage to the 'kent' strain, then further measures over and above surge testing and targeted vaccination will be brought in. I'd hope they consider regional lock downs again, as well.

I'm sure a team of recent MBA graduates are all over developing an infectious titer assay to quantify that significant advantage.

Fuck me.

More likely Sage or Spi thingy. Not that I have much confidence in either to be frank. Or Boris. Or almost any politician.

[Which Tyler]

More likely Sage or Spi thingy. Not that I have much confidence in either to be frank. Or Boris. Or almost any politician.

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/986709/S1237_SPI-M-O_Consensus_Statement.pdf
PI-M-O is the Scientific Pandemic Influenza group on Modelling (Operational) - the modelling subcommittee of SAGE

Summary

1. SPI-M-O’s best estimate for R in England is between 0.8 and 1.1. R is estimated to be between 0.8 and 1.0 for Scotland, 0.7 and 1.0 for Wales, and 0.8 and 1.1 for Northern Ireland. These estimates are based on the data available up to 10th May, including hospitalisations and deaths as well as symptomatic testing and prevalence studies.

2. Overall, the epidemic in England could be either flat, shrinking slowly, or growing slightly. There are local areas in all nations where the epidemic is increasing and some localities, such as parts of the North West and Bedford, have fast growth of S-gene positive variants that is concerning. This includes the B.1.617.2 variant.

3. Clusters of such new variants mean it is becoming more difficult to interpret R estimates as they are averages over populations, viral variants and areas. Situations could change quickly, especially as restrictions are relaxed further from 17th May.

4. SPI-M-O estimates that there are between 1,000 and 7,000 new infections per day in England.

5. The number and proportion of cases that are S-gene positive continues to increase and this is highly heterogeneous across regions and ethnicities. SPI-M-O is confident that B.1.617.2 is more transmissible than B.1.1.7, and it is a realistic possibility that this new variant of concern could be 50% more transmissible. If B.1.617.2 does have such a large transmission advantage, it is a realistic possibility that progressing with all Roadmap steps would lead to a substantial resurgence of hospitalisations.

6. SPI-M-O has also considered the merits of surge vaccination. While the impact of such a programme is uncertain, from a non-operational epidemiological perspective alone, it has a large potential upside and relatively small potential drawbacks with regard to transmission.

It looks likely that the bulk of the UK's B.1.617.2 variant travelled in during the 4 days warning when everyone was rushing home to beat the quarantine requirement - which I'm sure, absolutely nobody could have predicted, especially not if they'd had access to the hindsight that the same has happened literally every single time any government has said "we'll be doing X, but in N days"

[Banquo]

More likely Sage or Spi thingy. Not that I have much confidence in either to be frank. Or Boris. Or almost any politician.

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/986709/S1237_SPI-M-O_Consensus_Statement.pdf
PI-M-O is the Scientific Pandemic Influenza group on Modelling (Operational) - the modelling subcommittee of SAGE

Summary

1. SPI-M-O’s best estimate for R in England is between 0.8 and 1.1. R is estimated to be between 0.8 and 1.0 for Scotland, 0.7 and 1.0 for Wales, and 0.8 and 1.1 for Northern Ireland. These estimates are based on the data available up to 10th May, including hospitalisations and deaths as well as symptomatic testing and prevalence studies.

2. Overall, the epidemic in England could be either flat, shrinking slowly, or growing slightly. There are local areas in all nations where the epidemic is increasing and some localities, such as parts of the North West and Bedford, have fast growth of S-gene positive variants that is concerning. This includes the B.1.617.2 variant.

3. Clusters of such new variants mean it is becoming more difficult to interpret R estimates as they are averages over populations, viral variants and areas. Situations could change quickly, especially as restrictions are relaxed further from 17th May.

4. SPI-M-O estimates that there are between 1,000 and 7,000 new infections per day in England.

5. The number and proportion of cases that are S-gene positive continues to increase and this is highly heterogeneous across regions and ethnicities. SPI-M-O is confident that B.1.617.2 is more transmissible than B.1.1.7, and it is a realistic possibility that this new variant of concern could be 50% more transmissible. If B.1.617.2 does have such a large transmission advantage, it is a realistic possibility that progressing with all Roadmap steps would lead to a substantial resurgence of hospitalisations.

6. SPI-M-O has also considered the merits of surge vaccination. While the impact of such a programme is uncertain, from a non-operational epidemiological perspective alone, it has a large potential upside and relatively small potential drawbacks with regard to transmission.

It looks likely that the bulk of the UK's B.1.617.2 variant travelled in during the 4 days warning when everyone was rushing home to beat the quarantine requirement - which I'm sure, absolutely nobody could have predicted, especially not if they'd had access to the hindsight that the same has happened literally every single time any government has said "we'll be doing X, but in N days"

Yep thanks, I know who they are and what they do, I just couldn't remember their full acronym, but appreciate the effort. I'll get round to reading Sage's latest full minutes at some point, as they are never correctly reported.

[Galfon]

Somewhat re-assuring real-life data re. AZ 2-jabs; can't help but think thousands in Europe would still be here if this cheap and (in some cases) available vaccine was backed not sacked early on.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-57183056

( Mrs G. & I now shaking off the sore-arm & grogginess from ours,
don't think the thrombie risk is significant if you got through the first jab ok. )