COVID19

[Stom]

So after the government finally got around to sorting out vaccination for non nationals, my wife and I got the J&J one today. Only one shot needed, she had a painful arm, me nothings much.

Now to wait and see if I get my card in the post like I’m meant to...

[morepork]

Did they give you any record of vaccination whatsoever? At least the type of vaccine and lot number?

[Stom]

Did they give you any record of vaccination whatsoever? At least the type of vaccine and lot number?

Yes, sorry for the misunderstanding.

I have an internationally accepted paper with the lot number, date, doctor's stamp, everything. Just in Hungary we have vaccine passports...joy.

And those haven't been coming to non-Hungarian citizens. Some have recently managed to get hold of them but not many. I'm planning an escape away by myself to seclusion sometime in the coming weeks (finally time away from the kids), so wanted to be able to do that without fuss, but that might not be possible...

[Which Tyler]

[Which Tyler]

https://www.gov.uk/government/publicati ... 7-may-2021


B1.617 has doubled in a week.

Shit!

In better news though: https://www.gov.uk/government/news/vacc ... er-2-doses

the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine was 88% effective against symptomatic disease from the B.1.617.2 variant 2 weeks after the second dose, compared to 93% effectiveness against the B.1.1.7 variant
2 doses of the AstraZeneca vaccine were 60% effective against symptomatic disease from the B.1.617.2 variant compared to 66% effectiveness against the B.1.1.7 variant
both vaccines were 33% effective against symptomatic disease from B.1.617.2, 3 weeks after the first dose compared to around 50% effectiveness against the B.1.1.7 variant

n=1054

[paddy no 11]

Is 33% not poor efficacy against the Indian variant?

[Which Tyler]

Is 33% not poor efficacy against the Indian variant?

3 weeks after the first dose.
First dose peak effect is at 6+ weeks; and it's then followed by a second dose.
Yes, 33% would be "not good enough" if that was the completed course; but at a quarter of the way through the course; it's likely fine (not great, but fine)

For comparison, after 3 weeks it's 50% effective vs B117; after 6 weeks its about 75-80% vs B117; after 2nd dose it's (eventually) 90-95% effective vs B117

ETA: That second bullet point confuses me a little; the figures they released in March were 1 dose of AZ being 70-75% effective and still climbing at 6 weeks; reaching 90-95% after 2 doses. They've obviously revised those figures without me noticing.
Those figures weren't split by variant; but B117 was by a long shot the dominant one.


ETA: As ever, the above is my understanding, and I reserve the right to be wrong; it's still way outside my speciality.

[Banquo]

Hope to fck they've got a handle on 'Lancashire, including Bolton and Blackburn/Darwen' because its going tits up there....admissions rising quickly.

[Zhivago]

If AZ is only 60% effective then it's gonna be hard to reach herd immunity, as it is estimated to require 100% vaccine coverage at that effectiveness. Luckily we also have some Pfizer coverage, but still. Not promising.

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/a ... ihub#m0005
"A vaccine with less than 70% VE cannot achieve herd immunity and will result in ongoing risk of outbreaks"

We need a ring vaccination strategy with effective track and tracing of variant outbreaks to overcome new variants. And clearly the vaccine should have high efficacy therefore Pfizer most likely best

[morepork]

How about not flying around the fucking world with complete disregard for fundamental biology and the laws of probability.

Too late? Oh well, fuck it then.

[morepork]

and the 'Lympics can take a flying fuck at a rolling doghnut too.

[fivepointer]

How about not flying around the fucking world with complete disregard for fundamental biology and the laws of probability.

Too late? Oh well, fuck it then.

https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-1-5 ... d-12318777

More than 1.5 million people flew into the UK between January and April while the UK's borders were supposed to be heavily restricted, new figures reveal.

Home Office data shows that about two-thirds of arrivals in 2021 were non-UK nationals.

And more than 12 million people have flown into the UK since the start of the lockdown in March 2020, the new statistics reveal, with 1.59 million entering the country in the first four months of this year.

This Govt have never been remotely serious about proper border controls.

[Digby]

[Puja]

"It sticks to my neck too. Look." {fails to stick} {tries again} {tries again} {tries pressing it in firmly, key falls off} {swaps for bobby pin and presses against neck - adheres!} "If someone can explain this," {bobby pin falls off} {tries again} {tries again} "If someone can explain this, that'd be great."{tries again} {tries again} {attempts to surreptitiously palm key and carry on} "Any questions?"

Puja

[Digby]

it is outstanding work in the field of crassness, though such people remain a waste of oxygen

[morepork]

I can't bring myself to watch that cunt. The stupid cunt looks on their cunt faces with their earnest sewious anger at this utter utter nonsense that risks escalating into violence at the slightest whiff of logic entering the room.

Curse the cunts of the mothers that spawned these people.

[Digby]

I can't bring myself to watch that cunt.

Brian Williams might not be the most interesting, but that's a little harsh. Justice 4 old white men!

[morepork]

The amount of effort going into avoiding any responsibility for the cack handed response to the pest in USandA is something to behold. It's almost entirely driven by social media, and it is lucrative for those that are driving it. Phase I has been blame the Chinese for engineering it and weleasing it into the wild. The internet is awash with Facebook and Twitter scientists that turn snippets of headlines into memes and memes into movements. Phase II has been to aggressively discredit Anthony Fauci (yes, via social media) who is argued to be the sole cause of poor early outcomes. Not the FuckTrumpet, Kushner, or the hideous daughter-wife who were actually calling the shots/spending money. Anyone but the people that were in charge at the time. It is impressive in its brazen cowardice and seems to be morphing into an election strategy for the midterms coming up next year. It is just relentless.

There are very few adults left in public service now. It is almost all corrupt, lazy digital media warriors.

[Digby]

It is almost all corrupt, lazy digital media warriors.

It's called winning as the GOP and Charlie Sheen would be only too happy to tell you

[Which Tyler]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-57431420

Covid: Is there a limit to how much worse variants can get?

It is clear we are now dealing with a virus that spreads far more easily - probably more than twice as easily - as the version that emerged in Wuhan at the end of 2019.

The Alpha variant, first identified in Kent, UK, performed a large jump in its ability to transmit. Now Delta, seen first in India, leapt further still.

This is evolution in action.

So are we doomed to a never-ending parade of new and improved variants that get harder and harder to contain? Or is there a limit to how much worse coronavirus can become?

It's worth remembering the journey this virus is on. It has made the jump from infecting a completely different species - its closest relatives are in bats - to us. It's like you, starting a new job: you're competent, but not the finished article. The first variant was good enough to start a devastating pandemic, but now it's learning on the job.

article continues...

[Banquo]

yay. But then again, vaccines- see Measles and Mumps.

[Doorzetbornandbred]

You need Prysiau who used to frequent these boards to comment on this, hes been working on Covid at Imperial College. His spats with conspiracy theorists and virus experts on Twitter have been entertaining to say the least over the last year or so.

[Galfon]

Delta first symptoms.. headache, then runny nose and sore throat.
Less cough/loss of smell than Alfie, apparently.
That's sneeky, morphing into it's stable-mate...more transmissable and potent (hospitalisations) also, and found a receptive host group in the 20's. The race is on #34.

[Son of Mathonwy]

Delta first symptoms.. headache, then runny nose and sore throat.
Less cough/loss of smell than Alfie, apparently.
That's sneeky, morphing into it's stable-mate...more transmissable and potent (hospitalisations) also, and found a receptive host group in the 20's. The race is on #34.

That was a little worrying because there have been plenty of those symptoms in the family recently. But lateral flow tests have come up negative, I've already been vaccinated, so I guess it's just one of that menagerie of viruses we call the cold.

[Stom]

Delta first symptoms.. headache, then runny nose and sore throat.
Less cough/loss of smell than Alfie, apparently.
That's sneeky, morphing into it's stable-mate...more transmissable and potent (hospitalisations) also, and found a receptive host group in the 20's. The race is on #34.

That was a little worrying because there have been plenty of those symptoms in the family recently. But lateral flow tests have come up negative, I've already been vaccinated, so I guess it's just one of that menagerie of viruses we call the cold.

That's the problem, the given symptoms are identical to the typical end of term summer cold. So stupidly hard to tell.