COVID19

[Digby]

Delta first symptoms.. headache, then runny nose and sore throat.
Less cough/loss of smell than Alfie, apparently.
That's sneeky, morphing into it's stable-mate...more transmissable and potent (hospitalisations) also, and found a receptive host group in the 20's. The race is on #34.

That was a little worrying because there have been plenty of those symptoms in the family recently. But lateral flow tests have come up negative, I've already been vaccinated, so I guess it's just one of that menagerie of viruses we call the cold.

That's the problem, the given symptoms are identical to the typical end of term summer cold. So stupidly hard to tell.

Not sure what the scores on the doors in Hungary are. Here we, well I assume a lot if not sadly all people, update a daily app noting if we have/don't have any symptoms and if you do they invariably send you some test kits, and the situation can be tracked from there. If nothing else I can now assemble the box to send it back in quickly

[Stom]

That was a little worrying because there have been plenty of those symptoms in the family recently. But lateral flow tests have come up negative, I've already been vaccinated, so I guess it's just one of that menagerie of viruses we call the cold.

That's the problem, the given symptoms are identical to the typical end of term summer cold. So stupidly hard to tell.

Not sure what the scores on the doors in Hungary are. Here we, well I assume a lot if not sadly all people, update a daily app noting if we have/don't have any symptoms and if you do they invariably send you some test kits, and the situation can be tracked from there. If nothing else I can now assemble the box to send it back in quickly

Nope, nothing like that here. Nothing here at all. And lots of death from not many cases because the hospitals are so bad.

[morepork]

nearly 20 000 people are set to be packed into a "village" in Tokyo for the 'Lympics. They have exercise equipment in shared facilities with plastic shields in between each piece of equipment. That sounds perfectly safe. The 'Lympics are so important that vaccine doses have been diverted from the public in countries struggling with vaccine rollout so that 'Lympians can get theirs before the unwashed public. Great idea. That will help contain spread. And vaccination is not mandatory, with some countries refusing to track vaccination rates among their athletes. Should be fine.

#priorities

[Which Tyler]

Just updating my graphs...

Case rate by age (as good a substitute for vaccine uptake as there realistically is):

By Age.jpg

Number of hospitalisations with Covid, by English NHS region:

Hospital Beds Nationally.jpg

Total cases, by local authority (local to me) but including nationally:

Covid Recent.jpg

[Galfon]

Just updating my graphs...

A bit puzzling that despite the growing cases and hospitalisation rates in the NW, total freedom is considered achievable in a matter of weeks.
Things appear to be opening up and moving away from home working / providing services online, that kept things moving during the lockdowns. 'New Normal' good, 'Old Normal' better seems to be the thinking, unless you're ....(long list).

[Banquo]

Just updating my graphs...

A bit puzzling that despite the growing cases and hospitalisation rates in the NW, total freedom is considered achievable in a matter of weeks.
Things appear to be opening up and moving away from home working / providing services online, that kept things moving during the lockdowns. 'New Normal' good, 'Old Normal' better seems to be the thinking, unless you're ....(long list).

agreed, though the rate of hospitalisation and deaths has clearly been slowed by the vaccines, and the demographic of infections is pretty different.

[morepork]

I am curious as to when the climate of blame and bluster is going to give way to a more coordinated strategy to head off future zoonotic events like this. There still does not appear to be a centralised scientific effort to study the nexus between human activity and animal habitat. The US and China could really head shit off there but seem hamstrung, in the US at least, by an astounding level of fuckwittery presenting as conspiracy. It's cooler and less work to be a digital gobshyte than a formally trained molecular biologist at the moment, and that worries me going forward. If I were younger I'd jump at the chance to work in the field and then play with nucleic acid and modelling evolution. The risk of character assassination resulting from such a career choice seems almost certain at the moment though, unless some maverick but ethical Bruce Wayne character steps in to resource the void left by culture war-waging politicians.

It's bringing me down at the moment. No self harm, just not overly confident we are coming out of the current episode any the wiser.

[Digby]

I am curious as to when the climate of blame and bluster is going to give way to a more coordinated strategy to head off future zoonotic events like this. There still does not appear to be a centralised scientific effort to study the nexus between human activity and animal habitat.

More and more people out in the suburbs in the UK are buying chickens so they can life the good life, eggs means zoonotic transfer as Theresa May might opine

Essentially we're not merely not acting as we should do, we're actively trying to increase the risk, whether with idiots putting chickens in their gardens or in other nations stripping woodlands

[Which Tyler]

Week ending June 18th (latest available) is the first week since week ending 5th March that we've recorded excess deaths compared to the 5-year average (bank holiday variations aside).
Of course, it's not just about deaths. Hospitalisations are also rising everywhere in England (sorry, I haven't looked at Scotland, Wales, NI)

[Puja]

Week ending June 18th (latest available) is the first week since week ending 5th March that we've recorded excess deaths compared to the 5-year average (bank holiday variations aside).
Of course, it's not just about deaths. Hospitalisations are also rising everywhere in England (sorry, I haven't looked at Scotland, Wales, NI)

The 5 year average will include 2020 now though, won't it? So it'll be significantly higher than the previous 5 year average.

Puja

[Which Tyler]

Week ending June 18th (latest available) is the first week since week ending 5th March that we've recorded excess deaths compared to the 5-year average (bank holiday variations aside).
Of course, it's not just about deaths. Hospitalisations are also rising everywhere in England (sorry, I haven't looked at Scotland, Wales, NI)

The 5 year average will include 2020 now though, won't it? So it'll be significantly higher than the previous 5 year average.

Puja

From what I can tell... they thought of that; and are still using 2015-19
ETA: Yes, the "5 year average" (and maximum and minimum) used as comparators are identical to those provided for comparison last year - right from week 1

[Puja]

Week ending June 18th (latest available) is the first week since week ending 5th March that we've recorded excess deaths compared to the 5-year average (bank holiday variations aside).
Of course, it's not just about deaths. Hospitalisations are also rising everywhere in England (sorry, I haven't looked at Scotland, Wales, NI)

The 5 year average will include 2020 now though, won't it? So it'll be significantly higher than the previous 5 year average.

Puja

From what I can tell... they thought of that; and are still using 2015-19
ETA: Yes, the "5 year average" (and maximum and minimum) used as comparators are identical to those provided for comparison last year

Common sense?

Puja

[Which Tyler]

Common sense?

Least common of the senses.

I've also done my usual graphs and interpretation here btw:

[Digby]

One of my cousins has Covid, again. As a front line worker in the NHS they've been vaccinated twice so it's very much doing the rounds still as the bad news, good news would be they've suffered little more than a heavy cold and some partial anosmia and they seem to be nearly back to normal bar the anosmia.

[morepork]

One of my cousins has Covid, again. As a front line worker in the NHS they've been vaccinated twice so it's very much doing the rounds still as the bad news, good news would be they've suffered little more than a heavy cold and some partial anosmia and they seem to be nearly back to normal bar the anosmia.

Was that a diagnosis by PCR, in that your cuz had actual viral genomes?

[Sandydragon]

Here we go, everything back to normal. Our health is better if we drop all restrictions and get back to normal.

Anyone else think Chris Witty looks very uncomfortable stood next to Boris (more so than normal anyway)?

And personal responsibility is a bunch of horse shit.

[Digby]

One of my cousins has Covid, again. As a front line worker in the NHS they've been vaccinated twice so it's very much doing the rounds still as the bad news, good news would be they've suffered little more than a heavy cold and some partial anosmia and they seem to be nearly back to normal bar the anosmia.

Was that a diagnosis by PCR, in that your cuz had actual viral genomes?

I actually don't know which test they fell foul of, I heard it being passed along the family grapevine (despite my many attempts to show no interest in my family). They're off work, and I cannot imagine they wouldn't have been asked to take the PCR test. Any reported loss of smell in the UK results in you being issued a PCR test, frankly you get issued a PCR test if you report a high temp or a cough

[Digby]

Here we go, everything back to normal. Our health is better if we drop all restrictions and get back to normal.

Anyone else think Chris Witty looks very uncomfortable stood next to Boris (more so than normal anyway)?

And personal responsibility is a bunch of horse shit.

Standard modern management, outsource the risk/blame (in this case to the public) and then claim any feck ups aren't your fault

I don't fully understand why face masks don't have to be a thing on public transport, there's a chance to look at some positive outcomes with regards to many transmissible diseases, which even putting Covid aside might result in much less sick time and thus a boost to the economy, especially if people actually learn to wash hands properly as the new normal. I get there are issues for those who're reliant on lip reading to some degree, but it seems an interesting opportunity we're just giving up on for insufficient positive offsets. Masks are perhaps going to be a thing going into care homes, some health services, but still public transport seems to be a chance we're passing over

[morepork]

One of my cousins has Covid, again. As a front line worker in the NHS they've been vaccinated twice so it's very much doing the rounds still as the bad news, good news would be they've suffered little more than a heavy cold and some partial anosmia and they seem to be nearly back to normal bar the anosmia.

Was that a diagnosis by PCR, in that your cuz had actual viral genomes?

I actually don't know which test they fell foul of, I heard it being passed along the family grapevine (despite my many attempts to show no interest in my family). They're off work, and I cannot imagine they wouldn't have been asked to take the PCR test. Any reported loss of smell in the UK results in you being issued a PCR test, frankly you get issued a PCR test if you report a high temp or a cough

I would imagine the possibility of a false-positive antibody test for someone vaccinated quite high.

[Puja]

Here we go, everything back to normal. Our health is better if we drop all restrictions and get back to normal.

Anyone else think Chris Witty looks very uncomfortable stood next to Boris (more so than normal anyway)?

And personal responsibility is a bunch of horse shit.

Standard modern management, outsource the risk/blame (in this case to the public) and then claim any feck ups aren't your fault

I don't fully understand why face masks don't have to be a thing on public transport, there's a chance to look at some positive outcomes with regards to many transmissible diseases, which even putting Covid aside might result in much less sick time and thus a boost to the economy, especially if people actually learn to wash hands properly as the new normal. I get there are issues for those who're reliant on lip reading to some degree, but it seems an interesting opportunity we're just giving up on for insufficient positive offsets. Masks are perhaps going to be a thing going into care homes, some health services, but still public transport seems to be a chance we're passing over

You are missing the positive offset of FREEDOM.

I hate everything.

Puja

[Which Tyler]

I see Richard Graham (MP for Gloucester - where the case rate is more than twice the national) is delighted to see the end of the mask mandate; and repeats the ignorant line that "It will be personal choice; if you want to wear a mask, because that's what feels right for you, you still can" which completely ignores that wearing a mask is to protect other people, not yourself.

[Digby]

Was that a diagnosis by PCR, in that your cuz had actual viral genomes?

I actually don't know which test they fell foul of, I heard it being passed along the family grapevine (despite my many attempts to show no interest in my family). They're off work, and I cannot imagine they wouldn't have been asked to take the PCR test. Any reported loss of smell in the UK results in you being issued a PCR test, frankly you get issued a PCR test if you report a high temp or a cough

I would imagine the possibility of a false-positive antibody test for someone vaccinated quite high.

They were feeling unwell so took a lateral test (though they have to do quite a few of those anyway given they work in cardiology) that returned a positive, so they took a PCR which also returned a positive. I forget how old but it'll be early to mid 30s, and I don't know when they'd have had their 2nd jab, but a while back I'm supposing owing to the role, not a situation to be faffing around with.

[Zhivago]

I think we have to wake up to the fact that we aren't going to eradicate this thing. Every year the vulnerable will need to be vaccinated against the latest strain, similarly to how they were against the most prevalent flu variants previously (Without comparing the virus and its effects directly with flu).

Also, I am not surprised that they are opening up - around 19th July schools will shut for summer holidays and therefore transmission among children should decrease. I assume they're planning some form of booster jab (either specific to latest variant or otherwise) for the autumn.

Link clearly broken indeed

[fivepointer]

Johnson and his shower of a Govt have basically given up. They cant be arsed anymore. We've given you vaccines, so from now on you'll have to exercise the best judgment you can. Over to you.

[Son of Mathonwy]

How long before we breed the epsilon variant? If we're just going to let it rip, remove all restrictions while cases are shooting up, that's what's going to happen.

Of course, when it does it will be, well it's not our fault, who could have predicted that?