Europe - in or out - RR Votes

[Len]

Wow. I'm not even going to bother posting the obvious Life of Brian clip.

I suppose you can always posit the question of net value given the UK's contributions to the EU, but on a regional basis (and relying on that article alone) I doubt it would be in favour of the EU.

I guess I'm completely naive to think that a successful Leave movement (not to mention a prepared governing party) would already have answers to questions like:
1. When and by whom shall clause 50 be invoked?
2. What are the intended terms to be sought in a negotiation under clause 50 (at least to the level of Norway/Switzerland/ordinary FTA/complete divorce level of generality)
3. Will the central government in any event make up for specific lost EU funding or not.

This is especially so after the Scottish independence movement was rightly criticised for not doing the equivalent of 2 and 3 in that context.

The place is turning into a right shambles mate. This is the state of it: In regards to the exit plan. Not sure what the whole context of this is i.e who the reporter was talking to but it seems the politicians around here don't know their asshole from their elbows

https://twitter.com/wrongisland/status/ ... 6026289152

This is another theory doing the rounds

"If Boris Johnson looked downbeat yesterday, that is because he realises that he has lost.

"Perhaps many Brexiters do not realise it yet, but they have actually lost, and it is all down to one man: David Cameron.

"With one fell swoop yesterday at 9:15 am, Cameron effectively annulled the referendum result, and simultaneously destroyed the political careers of Boris Johnson, Michael Gove and leading Brexiters who cost him so much anguish, not to mention his premiership.

"How?

"Throughout the campaign, Cameron had repeatedly said that a vote for leave would lead to triggering Article 50 straight away. Whether implicitly or explicitly, the image was clear: he would be giving that notice under Article 50 the morning after a vote to leave. Whether that was scaremongering or not is a bit moot now but, in the midst of the sentimental nautical references of his speech yesterday, he quietly abandoned that position and handed the responsibility over to his successor.

"And as the day wore on, the enormity of that step started to sink in: the markets, Sterling, Scotland, the Irish border, the Gibraltar border, the frontier at Calais, the need to continue compliance with all EU regulations for a free market, re-issuing passports, Brits abroad, EU citizens in Britain, the mountain of legislation to be torn up and rewritten ... the list grew and grew.

"The referendum result is not binding. It is advisory. Parliament is not bound to commit itself in that same direction.

"The Conservative party election that Cameron triggered will now have one question looming over it: will you, if elected as party leader, trigger the notice under Article 50?

"Who will want to have the responsibility of all those ramifications and consequences on his/her head and shoulders?

"Boris Johnson knew this yesterday, when he emerged subdued from his home and was even more subdued at the press conference. He has been out-manoeuvred and check-mated.

"If he runs for leadership of the party, and then fails to follow through on triggering Article 50, then he is finished. If he does not run and effectively abandons the field, then he is finished. If he runs, wins and pulls the UK out of the EU, then it will all be over - Scotland will break away, there will be upheaval in Ireland, a recession ... broken trade agreements. Then he is also finished. Boris Johnson knows all of this. When he acts like the dumb blond it is just that: an act.

"The Brexit leaders now have a result that they cannot use. For them, leadership of the Tory party has become a poison chalice.

"When Boris Johnson said there was no need to trigger Article 50 straight away, what he really meant to say was "never". When Michael Gove went on and on about "informal negotiations" ... why? why not the formal ones straight away? ... he also meant not triggering the formal departure. They both know what a formal demarche would mean: an irreversible step that neither of them is prepared to take.

"All that remains is for someone to have the guts to stand up and say that Brexit is unachievable in reality without an enormous amount of pain and destruction, that cannot be borne. And David Cameron has put the onus of making that statement on the heads of the people who led the Brexit campaign

[Len]

I'll get rinsed for this but I've never seen TLOB. Post up the clip.

Don't worry. Seen it.

[Lizard]

https://twitter.com/wrongisland/status/ ... 6026289152

I was laughing in a similar fashion at an interview on BBC World last night when someone called Marr* was putting to the formerly Remainist Minister of Business (or something like that, a well-spoken swarthy chap anyway) all sorts of doom-mongering statements he'd made about GDP, employment, house-prices etc in the event of Brexit and asking if he stood by them. It was a very impressive display of resolute refusal to answer bloody good questions. Instead he blathered on about needing to get to work and do his job to implement the instructions of the electorate.

The interview ended with a real killer:
Marr: "Oh, one more thing, where is your chancellor?"
Minister: "Doing his job to implement [blah blah blah]. You should have invited him on your show and asked him yourself"
Marr: "We did. He said no."

I imagine that this is now a staple routine, question whenever a Remain minister is in front of a microphone: "Do you intend to retain your portfolio and rule over the inevitable, unmitigated disaster in [name area of responsibility] you predicted with absolute certainty about 5 minutes ago?"

I'm not surprised DC shot the gap. Smartest move in the circumstances.

*Who I though just made medieval documentaries about a barely imaginable time when England was riven with factions among the ruling class and had a complicated relationship with France.

[UGagain]

On a related, and mildly interesting, note, I came across a live update web-map that records the locations of people officially requesting a second EU referendum.

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/201 ... _b-gdnnews

Its actually astonishing. Another one is Port Talbot who voted leave. They've literally learnt nothing. I'd love to say I'll have no sympathy if it goes tits up but it wouldn't be the truth.

What people like you don't realise, and the media won't tell you, is that every pound that comes from the EU was created by the UK government.

The EU accounts for zero net spending anywhere in the UK.

But laugh at the other fools all you want.

[Sandydragon]

https://twitter.com/wrongisland/status/ ... 6026289152

I was laughing in a similar fashion at an interview on BBC World last night when someone called Marr* was putting to the formerly Remainist Minister of Business (or something like that, a well-spoken swarthy chap anyway) all sorts of doom-mongering statements he'd made about GDP, employment, house-prices etc in the event of Brexit and asking if he stood by them. It was a very impressive display of resolute refusal to answer bloody good questions. Instead he blathered on about needing to get to work and do his job to implement the instructions of the electorate.

The interview ended with a real killer:
Marr: "Oh, one more thing, where is your chancellor?"
Minister: "Doing his job to implement [blah blah blah]. You should have invited him on your show and asked him yourself"
Marr: "We did. He said no."

I imagine that this is now a staple routine, question whenever a Remain minister is in front of a microphone: "Do you intend to retain your portfolio and rule over the inevitable, unmitigated disaster in [name area of responsibility] you predicted with absolute certainty about 5 minutes ago?"

I'm not surprised DC shot the gap. Smartest move in the circumstances.

*Who I though just made medieval documentaries about a barely imaginable time when England was riven with factions among the ruling class and had a complicated relationship with France.

That's Andrew Marr, he hosts a Sunday morning political discussion show and yesterday he had Javid on the show who is our business minister. And the interview was as bad as you describe it.

In summary, yes I forecast doom and disaster, but now I don't.

[Len]

On a related, and mildly interesting, note, I came across a live update web-map that records the locations of people officially requesting a second EU referendum.

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/201 ... _b-gdnnews

Its actually astonishing. Another one is Port Talbot who voted leave. They've literally learnt nothing. I'd love to say I'll have no sympathy if it goes tits up but it wouldn't be the truth.

What people like you don't realise, and the media won't tell you, is that every pound that comes from the EU was created by the UK government.

The EU accounts for zero net spending anywhere in the UK.

But laugh at the other fools all you want.

I'm laughing at the majority of people I know who voted leave because they can't handle the fact their neighbour speaks Polish. I hope for everybodys sake that you are correct and everything is hunky dory.

[UGagain]

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/201 ... _b-gdnnews

Its actually astonishing. Another one is Port Talbot who voted leave. They've literally learnt nothing. I'd love to say I'll have no sympathy if it goes tits up but it wouldn't be the truth.

What people like you don't realise, and the media won't tell you, is that every pound that comes from the EU was created by the UK government.

The EU accounts for zero net spending anywhere in the UK.

But laugh at the other fools all you want.

I'm laughing at the majority of people I know who voted leave because they can't handle the fact their neighbour speaks Polish. I hope for everybodys sake that you are correct and everything is hunky dory.

I know people who voted to leave because they believe in democracy and national sovereignty. As I would have.

And you are falling for Project Fear propaganda.

Like most of the mob here have and will.

[Stones of granite]

What people like you don't realise, and the media won't tell you, is that every pound that comes from the EU was created by the UK government.

The EU accounts for zero net spending anywhere in the UK.

But laugh at the other fools all you want.

I'm laughing at the majority of people I know who voted leave because they can't handle the fact their neighbour speaks Polish. I hope for everybodys sake that you are correct and everything is hunky dory.

I know people who voted to leave because they believe in democracy and national sovereignty. As I would have.

And you are falling for Project Fear propaganda.

Like most of the mob here have and will.

That's why I voted Yes for Scottish Indepedence, but apparently, other things are more important to some people. The spike in in racist attacks over the weekend seems to indicate that an inability to deal with having a Polish speaking neighbour is quite high up the list.

[UGagain]

All sorts of terrible things can happen in the press that aren't real.

[Digby]

Wow. I'm not even going to bother posting the obvious Life of Brian clip.

I suppose you can always posit the question of net value given the UK's contributions to the EU, but on a regional basis (and relying on that article alone) I doubt it would be in favour of the EU.

I guess I'm completely naive to think that a successful Leave movement (not to mention a prepared governing party) would already have answers to questions like:
1. When and by whom shall clause 50 be invoked?
2. What are the intended terms to be sought in a negotiation under clause 50 (at least to the level of Norway/Switzerland/ordinary FTA/complete divorce level of generality)
3. Will the central government in any event make up for specific lost EU funding or not.

This is especially so after the Scottish independence movement was rightly criticised for not doing the equivalent of 2 and 3 in that context.

Just on point 3 I found it one of the most astonishing parts of the campaign, in that various investigative/analytical bodies stated an opinion that mainly suggested staying was better than leaving, and the leave campaign countered (before suggesting we were all fed up with hearing from experts) that many of these bodies are funded by the EU and as such their views are biased, I could sort of accept the concerns of bias but what really struck is the thought does that mean the Brexisters don't think such 'independent' bodies should be funded in the event we voted to leave

I realise EU funding goes way beyond just funding research, but I am left wondering where do they think cuts should go when it comes to needless independent research, would they go as far as the Office for National Statistics for instance?

[Stones of granite]

All sorts of terrible things can happen in the press that aren't real.

Who said anything about the press?

[Stones of granite]

Wow. I'm not even going to bother posting the obvious Life of Brian clip.

I suppose you can always posit the question of net value given the UK's contributions to the EU, but on a regional basis (and relying on that article alone) I doubt it would be in favour of the EU.

I guess I'm completely naive to think that a successful Leave movement (not to mention a prepared governing party) would already have answers to questions like:
1. When and by whom shall clause 50 be invoked?
2. What are the intended terms to be sought in a negotiation under clause 50 (at least to the level of Norway/Switzerland/ordinary FTA/complete divorce level of generality)
3. Will the central government in any event make up for specific lost EU funding or not.

This is especially so after the Scottish independence movement was rightly criticised for not doing the equivalent of 2 and 3 in that context.

Just on point 3 I found it one of the most astonishing parts of the campaign, in that various investigative/analytical bodies stated an opinion that mainly suggested staying was better than leaving, and the leave campaign countered (before suggesting we were all fed up with hearing from experts) that many of these bodies are funded by the EU and as such their views are biased, I could sort of accept the concerns of bias but what really struck is the thought does that mean the Brexisters don't think such 'independent' bodies should be funded in the event we voted to leave

I realise EU funding goes way beyond just funding research, but I am left wondering where do they think cuts should go when it comes to needless independent research, would they go as far as the Office for National Statistics for instance?

It's much simpler than that. Anyone who seriously thinks that £xxx million (insert the figure you believe here) per week no longer sent to the EU would be distributed by a Tory government in any way other than tax breaks for their pals needs a serious dose of reality.

[Banquo]

What people like you don't realise, and the media won't tell you, is that every pound that comes from the EU was created by the UK government.

The EU accounts for zero net spending anywhere in the UK.

But laugh at the other fools all you want.

I'm laughing at the majority of people I know who voted leave because they can't handle the fact their neighbour speaks Polish. I hope for everybodys sake that you are correct and everything is hunky dory.

I know people who voted to leave because they believe in democracy and national sovereignty. As I would have.

And you are falling for Project Fear propaganda.

Like most of the mob here have and will.

Definitely one of the cohorts who voted leave, alongside the xenophobes, racists, disenfranchised. folks who object to the organisational shambles of the EU, and right wing nostalgics. A strange alliance, that Remain failed to recognise or know how to deal with.

[jared_7]

What people like you don't realise, and the media won't tell you, is that every pound that comes from the EU was created by the UK government.

The EU accounts for zero net spending anywhere in the UK.

But laugh at the other fools all you want.

I'm laughing at the majority of people I know who voted leave because they can't handle the fact their neighbour speaks Polish. I hope for everybodys sake that you are correct and everything is hunky dory.

I know people who voted to leave because they believe in democracy and national sovereignty. As I would have.

And you are falling for Project Fear propaganda.

Like most of the mob here have and will.

Which is a completely fair reason but its not the reason the majority voted and its certainly not the platform the Leave campaign was run. I would have voted that way if I thought there was even a smidgen of a chance the Leave campaign had any inkling to use that sovereignty to invest money in the economy and break the shackles of the contractionary rubbish we've been dished up for decades.

I guess it doesn't matter, as now there is a possibility a future government can now undertake those actions, but at the moment it looks as though the result of the referendum is going to a be a shift to the more extremist views in the Conservatives, and a shift back to the neoliberal conservatives within Labour.

The benefits of sovereignty look further away than ever, to me.

[Sandydragon]

I'm laughing at the majority of people I know who voted leave because they can't handle the fact their neighbour speaks Polish. I hope for everybodys sake that you are correct and everything is hunky dory.

I know people who voted to leave because they believe in democracy and national sovereignty. As I would have.

And you are falling for Project Fear propaganda.

Like most of the mob here have and will.

Definitely one of the cohorts who voted leave, alongside the xenophobes, racists, disenfranchised. folks who object to the organisational shambles of the EU, and right wing nostalgics. A strange alliance, that Remain failed to recognise or know how to deal with.

I think Remain just thought they needed to turn up to win. What does concern me quite a lot is the lack of a real plan at the moment. I understand Cameron resigning, I think that was inevitable following the Leave win. But we seem to have a state of paralysis at th moment. Surely the weekend was time for lots of reassuring stuff to investors and so on to stay calm, etc, etc. Yet is all seemed a bit quiet and overshadowed by the Conservative leadership contest and the upheaval in the Labour Party.

The only person Ive seen on the TV who has looked slightly competent and in control is Mark Carney.

[Banquo]

I know people who voted to leave because they believe in democracy and national sovereignty. As I would have.

And you are falling for Project Fear propaganda.

Like most of the mob here have and will.

Definitely one of the cohorts who voted leave, alongside the xenophobes, racists, disenfranchised. folks who object to the organisational shambles of the EU, and right wing nostalgics. A strange alliance, that Remain failed to recognise or know how to deal with.

I think Remain just thought they needed to turn up to win. What does concern me quite a lot is the lack of a real plan at the moment. I understand Cameron resigning, I think that was inevitable following the Leave win. But we seem to have a state of paralysis at th moment. Surely the weekend was time for lots of reassuring stuff to investors and so on to stay calm, etc, etc. Yet is all seemed a bit quiet and overshadowed by the Conservative leadership contest and the upheaval in the Labour Party.

The only person Ive seen on the TV who has looked slightly competent and in control is Mark Carney.

Neither Remain nor Leave saw the big Leave vote from the disenfranchised coming- though the GE gave a clue. Dave bought time by resigning, and deferring succession til October- I'd like to think that was always the plan to try and wring some concessions from Brussels, but I think he was just placing the onus on those he felt had betrayed him to do what they'd promised; btw I don't think fine words will reassure businesses to be honest.

[Sandydragon]

Definitely one of the cohorts who voted leave, alongside the xenophobes, racists, disenfranchised. folks who object to the organisational shambles of the EU, and right wing nostalgics. A strange alliance, that Remain failed to recognise or know how to deal with.

I think Remain just thought they needed to turn up to win. What does concern me quite a lot is the lack of a real plan at the moment. I understand Cameron resigning, I think that was inevitable following the Leave win. But we seem to have a state of paralysis at th moment. Surely the weekend was time for lots of reassuring stuff to investors and so on to stay calm, etc, etc. Yet is all seemed a bit quiet and overshadowed by the Conservative leadership contest and the upheaval in the Labour Party.

The only person Ive seen on the TV who has looked slightly competent and in control is Mark Carney.

Neither Remain nor Leave saw the big Leave vote from the disenfranchised coming- though the GE gave a clue. Dave bought time by resigning, and deferring succession til October- I'd like to think that was always the plan to try and wring some concessions from Brussels, but I think he was just placing the onus on those he felt had betrayed him to do what they'd promised; btw I don't think fine words will reassure businesses to be honest.

I understand that fine words will only get you so far. However, whilst we are undoubtedly in a period of huge transition and uncertainty, someone looking like they are in charge is at least a bit reassuring. In the absence of that, a challenge can be viewed as a disaster.

[Banquo]

I think Remain just thought they needed to turn up to win. What does concern me quite a lot is the lack of a real plan at the moment. I understand Cameron resigning, I think that was inevitable following the Leave win. But we seem to have a state of paralysis at th moment. Surely the weekend was time for lots of reassuring stuff to investors and so on to stay calm, etc, etc. Yet is all seemed a bit quiet and overshadowed by the Conservative leadership contest and the upheaval in the Labour Party.

The only person Ive seen on the TV who has looked slightly competent and in control is Mark Carney.

Neither Remain nor Leave saw the big Leave vote from the disenfranchised coming- though the GE gave a clue. Dave bought time by resigning, and deferring succession til October- I'd like to think that was always the plan to try and wring some concessions from Brussels, but I think he was just placing the onus on those he felt had betrayed him to do what they'd promised; btw I don't think fine words will reassure businesses to be honest.

I understand that fine words will only get you so far. However, whilst we are undoubtedly in a period of huge transition and uncertainty, someone looking like they are in charge is at least a bit reassuring. In the absence of that, a challenge can be viewed as a disaster.

Well they've spoken, and contrary to what Bozza has said, Project Fear looks like its just starting. I agree there is a huge leadership vacuum-- and confirms what many of the Leave voters thought ironically- the politicians are looking at each other, and don't give a shyte for the people they serve.

[Sandydragon]

Neither Remain nor Leave saw the big Leave vote from the disenfranchised coming- though the GE gave a clue. Dave bought time by resigning, and deferring succession til October- I'd like to think that was always the plan to try and wring some concessions from Brussels, but I think he was just placing the onus on those he felt had betrayed him to do what they'd promised; btw I don't think fine words will reassure businesses to be honest.

I understand that fine words will only get you so far. However, whilst we are undoubtedly in a period of huge transition and uncertainty, someone looking like they are in charge is at least a bit reassuring. In the absence of that, a challenge can be viewed as a disaster.

Well they've spoken, and contrary to what Bozza has said, Project Fear looks like its just starting. I agree there is a huge leadership vacuum-- and confirms what many of the Leave voters thought ironically- the politicians are looking at each other, and don't give a shyte for the people they serve.

Yes. The number of attempts to protract the Conservative leadership campaign is very worrying. The 1922 Committee is resisting extending the process any longer than the party conference; to me even that is too long. This isn't a time for meandering around, its a time for leadership.

[Banquo]

I understand that fine words will only get you so far. However, whilst we are undoubtedly in a period of huge transition and uncertainty, someone looking like they are in charge is at least a bit reassuring. In the absence of that, a challenge can be viewed as a disaster.

Well they've spoken, and contrary to what Bozza has said, Project Fear looks like its just starting. I agree there is a huge leadership vacuum-- and confirms what many of the Leave voters thought ironically- the politicians are looking at each other, and don't give a shyte for the people they serve.

Yes. The number of attempts to protract the Conservative leadership campaign is very worrying. The 1922 Committee is resisting extending the process any longer than the party conference; to me even that is too long. This isn't a time for meandering around, its a time for leadership.

...except that it filibusters triggering Article 50. Which could be a good thing if Brussels reacts; its clear that Boris and Gove want to try and negotiate staying in, at least to me. Its how you lead without giving the game away which is the conundrum.

[Sandydragon]

Well they've spoken, and contrary to what Bozza has said, Project Fear looks like its just starting. I agree there is a huge leadership vacuum-- and confirms what many of the Leave voters thought ironically- the politicians are looking at each other, and don't give a shyte for the people they serve.

Yes. The number of attempts to protract the Conservative leadership campaign is very worrying. The 1922 Committee is resisting extending the process any longer than the party conference; to me even that is too long. This isn't a time for meandering around, its a time for leadership.

...except that it filibusters triggering Article 50. Which could be a good thing if Brussels reacts; its clear that Boris and Gove want to try and negotiate staying in, at least to me. Its how you lead without giving the game away which is the conundrum.

As much as I understand the business need for a resolution, I do think that its worth us and the EU taking a month to get our positions in order. As much as the UK is currently divided on how to proceed (the lack of plan is worrying) then EU seems to be undecided on a response. Merkel wants a happy departure, France seems to want a punishing divorce. Other members are starting to get upset as well. I think a bit (not months and months though) of time spent on getting some kind of plan together would be time well spent on the long term. Its also too emotional at the moment.

Ideally, Id like Johnson Gove et al to sit in a darkened room and establish a plan for what they think should happen next.

[Banquo]

Ideally, Id like Johnson Gove et al to sit in a darkened room and be quietly done away with.

fixed for you

[Digby]

They really need to get a move on. The cost which will derive from the uncertainty will dwarf the BS figure of £350 million/week. I know it's impacting my business, but there's just no way we're the only people looking at delayed/cancelled revenues/investment. And as before we've had this uncertainty looming a long time now, and really just what the hell are they expecting us to do, we're just continually on hold in far too many ways.

We'd have been better off pulling the plug on staying in the UK some time back at this juncture, and again we can't be the only business this is impacting. And moving is an option given the number of staff we already use out of other countries, mainly Poland and India which wouldn't be me first, second or third choices but still.

It's all very well saying people they understand our need for a resolution, but unless they want to start writing me six figure cheques each month they can do one.

[Banquo]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b0 ... w-26062016

Marr's intro is a good summation, after the news.

[Banquo]

They really need to get a move on. The cost which will derive from the uncertainty will dwarf the BS figure of £350 million/week. I know it's impacting my business, but there's just no way we're the only people looking at delayed/cancelled revenues/investment. And as before we've had this uncertainty looming a long time now, and really just what the hell are they expecting us to do, we're just continually on hold in far too many ways.

We'd have been better off pulling the plug on staying in the UK some time back at this juncture, and again we can't be the only business this is impacting. And moving is an option given the number of staff we already use out of other countries, mainly Poland and India which wouldn't be me first, second or third choices but still.

It's all very well saying people they understand our need for a resolution, but unless they want to start writing me six figure cheques each month they can do one.

its exactly what Remain warned of, is it not? Not that that helps.