If Russia invades Ukraine (more)...

[Galfon]

The Russians 'not meeting early objectives' and the various reports of losses over the last 2 days,(even if exaggerated ) indicate it won't be a cake-walk; urban warfare can be a gaping wound for an aggressor these days, and Ukr appear to have given up open space to focus on defence of the cities.The longer it drags on the harder it will be for Putin to meet his broader objectives.
In the meantime Imran Khan was 'excited' to meet VP this week to discuss a new gas pipeline, and India is looking at ways to soften the effect of Russian sanctions on their trading with the country..
Sands certainly shifting.

[Galfon]

Zelensky open to discussions with Putin to negotiate a ceasefire..
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/worl ... 23725.html

can't see Donetsk/Luhansk being on the table somehow.

[Puja]

Zelensky open to discussions with Putin to negotiate a ceasefire..
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/worl ... 23725.html

can't see Donetsk/Luhansk being on the table somehow.

Putin's only talking about talking to keep the Chinese from getting spooked and abandoning his cause entirely. He's got no actual intent on talking - his stated requirements for talks are complete surrender and demilitarisation of all of Ukraine's armed forces.

Puja

[Zhivago]

Did we watch the same speech(s)? This is not a calculating Putin. This is an angry deluded Putin.

But he knows damn well that we won’t intervene actively. So provided he can win without the war descending into another Chechnya then he know he can win. Have you seen the reaction of the world leaders? Many can’t bring themselves to condemn Russia and the European leaders brief flirtation with unity seems to be falling apart. It may hurt for a couple of years but long term he could be a winner. So I would call it a calculated risk rather than a completely unstable act.

How many losses did they suffer in the most recent Chechnya war? like 3800 or so? Well in the first two days of this war they've lost 2800.

3500 Russian losses now

[Galfon]

3500 Russian losses now

and Zelensky's staying put..
Kiev will be more Kobane than Kabul - Putin may not care, but when the families in Russia start getting the news, maybe the people will start questioning things.
Also, China, India and the UAE abstained from voting on a UN Security Council resolution condemning Russia’s invasion of Ukraine (Moscow obvs. vetoed).China has so far refused to call Russia’s action in Ukraine an ‘invasion’ or criticise the actions and has also lifted wheat import restrictions imposed in recent months over other concerns.
This closer co-operation will be causing some nervousness given China's similar aspirations elsewhere.

[Sandydragon]

Meanwhile, the Russian government is talking mess about Sweden and Finland, apparently, with not-so-veiled threats about "consequences" if they join NATO.

Whilst simultaneously driving them to join NATO as a result
If their threats.

[Sandydragon]

The Russians 'not meeting early objectives' and the various reports of losses over the last 2 days,(even if exaggerated ) indicate it won't be a cake-walk; urban warfare can be a gaping wound for an aggressor these days, and Ukr appear to have given up open space to focus on defence of the cities.The longer it drags on the harder it will be for Putin to meet his broader objectives.
In the meantime Imran Khan was 'excited' to meet VP this week to discuss a new gas pipeline, and India is looking at ways to soften the effect of Russian sanctions on their trading with the country..
Sands certainly shifting.

India and Pakistan have been very noticeable in their diplomatic approach to this. China appear to be hinting that talks are a good thing but they are broadly supporting Russia.

[Sandydragon]

3500 Russian losses now

and Zelensky's staying put..
Kiev will be more Kobane than Kabul - Putin may not care, but when the families in Russia start getting the news, maybe the people will start questioning things.
Also, China, India and the UAE abstained from voting on a UN Security Council resolution condemning Russia’s invasion of Ukraine (Moscow obvs. vetoed).China has so far refused to call Russia’s action in Ukraine an ‘invasion’ or criticise the actions and has also lifted wheat import restrictions imposed in recent months over other concerns.
This closer co-operation will be causing some nervousness given China's similar aspirations elsewhere.

China is absolutely testing western resolve. We have supported the Ukraine but we haven’t been that United. I’d suggest that Bidens performance has hardly been one of displaying excessive strength. Biden is being very cautious but there is a danger that caution becomes mistaken for passivity and China might think a punt at Taiwan is worth a go.

Militarily I’d suggest that is far higher risk than the Ukraine invasion but much would depend on whether the Americans became actively involved.

[Puja]

3500 Russian losses now

and Zelensky's staying put..
Kiev will be more Kobane than Kabul - Putin may not care, but when the families in Russia start getting the news, maybe the people will start questioning things.
Also, China, India and the UAE abstained from voting on a UN Security Council resolution condemning Russia’s invasion of Ukraine (Moscow obvs. vetoed).China has so far refused to call Russia’s action in Ukraine an ‘invasion’ or criticise the actions and has also lifted wheat import restrictions imposed in recent months over other concerns.
This closer co-operation will be causing some nervousness given China's similar aspirations elsewhere.

I think it's actually a pretty good sign that China abstained rather than voting against - they are always going to be on Russia's side, both in terms of having them as an ally forming a counterweight against American strength and because China would like to do a bit more military adventuring and border expansion themselves, but abstaining is as close as they're likely to come to a rebuke and is a pretty solid win for Western diplomats.

I am starting to think that the entire security of the world order depends on Ukraine's defence of Kyiv. If Putin wins comprehensively, there will be sanctions and there'll be grumbling, but victory covers all sins and other belligerent nations will be emboldened. Defeat or a prolonged stalemate however will humiliate him and deter other belligerents far more effectively than any UN resolutions ever could.

Puja

[Sandydragon]

3500 Russian losses now

and Zelensky's staying put..
Kiev will be more Kobane than Kabul - Putin may not care, but when the families in Russia start getting the news, maybe the people will start questioning things.
Also, China, India and the UAE abstained from voting on a UN Security Council resolution condemning Russia’s invasion of Ukraine (Moscow obvs. vetoed).China has so far refused to call Russia’s action in Ukraine an ‘invasion’ or criticise the actions and has also lifted wheat import restrictions imposed in recent months over other concerns.
This closer co-operation will be causing some nervousness given China's similar aspirations elsewhere.

I think it's actually a pretty good sign that China abstained rather than voting against - they are always going to be on Russia's side, both in terms of having them as an ally forming a counterweight against American strength and because China would like to do a bit more military adventuring and border expansion themselves, but abstaining is as close as they're likely to come to a rebuke and is a pretty solid win for Western diplomats.

I am starting to think that the entire security of the world order depends on Ukraine's defence of Kyiv. If Putin wins comprehensively, there will be sanctions and there'll be grumbling, but victory covers all sins and other belligerent nations will be emboldened. Defeat or a prolonged stalemate however will humiliate him and deter other belligerents far more effectively than any UN resolutions ever could.

Puja

I think you have a strong point there.

[Zhivago]

3500 Russian losses now

and Zelensky's staying put..
Kiev will be more Kobane than Kabul - Putin may not care, but when the families in Russia start getting the news, maybe the people will start questioning things.
Also, China, India and the UAE abstained from voting on a UN Security Council resolution condemning Russia’s invasion of Ukraine (Moscow obvs. vetoed).China has so far refused to call Russia’s action in Ukraine an ‘invasion’ or criticise the actions and has also lifted wheat import restrictions imposed in recent months over other concerns.
This closer co-operation will be causing some nervousness given China's similar aspirations elsewhere.

I think it's actually a pretty good sign that China abstained rather than voting against - they are always going to be on Russia's side, both in terms of having them as an ally forming a counterweight against American strength and because China would like to do a bit more military adventuring and border expansion themselves, but abstaining is as close as they're likely to come to a rebuke and is a pretty solid win for Western diplomats.

I am starting to think that the entire security of the world order depends on Ukraine's defence of Kyiv. If Putin wins comprehensively, there will be sanctions and there'll be grumbling, but victory covers all sins and other belligerent nations will be emboldened. Defeat or a prolonged stalemate however will humiliate him and deter other belligerents far more effectively than any UN resolutions ever could.

Puja

I think a humiliated Putin would be a very dangerous creature.

[paddy no 11]

Zelensky playing a blinder

EU needs to do all it can for Ukraine

[Sandydragon]

and Zelensky's staying put..
Kiev will be more Kobane than Kabul - Putin may not care, but when the families in Russia start getting the news, maybe the people will start questioning things.
Also, China, India and the UAE abstained from voting on a UN Security Council resolution condemning Russia’s invasion of Ukraine (Moscow obvs. vetoed).China has so far refused to call Russia’s action in Ukraine an ‘invasion’ or criticise the actions and has also lifted wheat import restrictions imposed in recent months over other concerns.
This closer co-operation will be causing some nervousness given China's similar aspirations elsewhere.

I think it's actually a pretty good sign that China abstained rather than voting against - they are always going to be on Russia's side, both in terms of having them as an ally forming a counterweight against American strength and because China would like to do a bit more military adventuring and border expansion themselves, but abstaining is as close as they're likely to come to a rebuke and is a pretty solid win for Western diplomats.

I am starting to think that the entire security of the world order depends on Ukraine's defence of Kyiv. If Putin wins comprehensively, there will be sanctions and there'll be grumbling, but victory covers all sins and other belligerent nations will be emboldened. Defeat or a prolonged stalemate however will humiliate him and deter other belligerents far more effectively than any UN resolutions ever could.

Puja

I think a humiliated Putin would be a very dangerous creature.

I agree. Unless he is so damaged that he is toppled, although by whom and would they be any better?

[Sandydragon]

Zelensky playing a blinder

EU needs to do all it can for Ukraine

Completely agree about Zelensky. Done everything possible to avoid provocations that could be used as an excuse and is keeping himself in harms way despite a US offer to extract him. Fair play.

[Sandydragon]

So apparently the entirely sane leader of the Chechen republic is offering to send tens of thousands of his notorious counter insurgency forces to Ukraine. Hopefully even Putin regards that as a bad idea.

[Son of Mathonwy]

I think it's actually a pretty good sign that China abstained rather than voting against - they are always going to be on Russia's side, both in terms of having them as an ally forming a counterweight against American strength and because China would like to do a bit more military adventuring and border expansion themselves, but abstaining is as close as they're likely to come to a rebuke and is a pretty solid win for Western diplomats.

I am starting to think that the entire security of the world order depends on Ukraine's defence of Kyiv. If Putin wins comprehensively, there will be sanctions and there'll be grumbling, but victory covers all sins and other belligerent nations will be emboldened. Defeat or a prolonged stalemate however will humiliate him and deter other belligerents far more effectively than any UN resolutions ever could.

Puja

I think a humiliated Putin would be a very dangerous creature.

I agree. Unless he is so damaged that he is toppled, although by whom and would they be any better?

An emboldened Putin is the biggest concern at the moment. He's a long way off humiliation.

[Mellsblue]

[Sandydragon]

Putin has ordered his strategic nuclear deterrent forces onto the highest alert levels in response to western aggression.

There’s brinksmanship and then there is madness. I think I might be changing my mind about his mental state.

[Zhivago]

Putin has ordered his strategic nuclear deterrent forces onto the highest alert levels in response to western aggression.

There’s brinksmanship and then there is madness. I think I might be changing my mind about his mental state.

World war 3 is genuinely closer than most would (like to) believe. This really feels like a Berlin 1961 sort of time.

[Zhivago]

But he knows damn well that we won’t intervene actively. So provided he can win without the war descending into another Chechnya then he know he can win. Have you seen the reaction of the world leaders? Many can’t bring themselves to condemn Russia and the European leaders brief flirtation with unity seems to be falling apart. It may hurt for a couple of years but long term he could be a winner. So I would call it a calculated risk rather than a completely unstable act.

How many losses did they suffer in the most recent Chechnya war? like 3800 or so? Well in the first two days of this war they've lost 2800.

3500 Russian losses now

4300

[Which Tyler]

Kyiv.jpg

[Son of Mathonwy]

One positive from this (assuming Putin is bluffing about his biggest threats) is that it will give Germany and other European countries reliant on Russian fossil fuels a massive push to shift to renewable energy. This is good in itself and very bad for Russia's economy and influence in the medium and long term (assuming the regime continues).

[Sandydragon]

Some interesting analysis in the Times which suggests:

Invasion timetable is very badly delayed due to strength of resistance.

Russians are very concerned at how the et underestimated fighting spirit and efficiency of Ukrainian armed forces

Tactically the Russians are being very naive, tanks assaulting urban areas without infantry support for example.

Russians are struggling to achieve air superiority despite overwhelming numbers of aircraft

Russian troops aren’t their highest quality ones.

Russians are likely to reduce the discretion with which they target Ukrainian troops. Expect to see sharp increase in civilian casualties as a result. Some discussion also over thermobaric devices or even bio/ chemical weapons being deployed. The latter would be a huge step although he probably figured that Assad got away with it so why can’t he?

To a last one is the most intriguing. Why would Putin hold back his best forces if a swift victory was what he wanted? Perhaps a complete misjudgement or is he holding them in reserve for something else?

[Puja]

Some interesting analysis in the Times which suggests:

Invasion timetable is very badly delayed due to strength of resistance.

Russians are very concerned at how the et underestimated fighting spirit and efficiency of Ukrainian armed forces

Tactically the Russians are being very naive, tanks assaulting urban areas without infantry support for example.

Russians are struggling to achieve air superiority despite overwhelming numbers of aircraft

Russian troops aren’t their highest quality ones.

Russians are likely to reduce the discretion with which they target Ukrainian troops. Expect to see sharp increase in civilian casualties as a result. Some discussion also over thermobaric devices or even bio/ chemical weapons being deployed. The latter would be a huge step although he probably figured that Assad got away with it so why can’t he?

To a last one is the most intriguing. Why would Putin hold back his best forces if a swift victory was what he wanted? Perhaps a complete misjudgement or is he holding them in reserve for something else?

I was reading analysis saying that the mistakes are because Putin's been insulated from reality by the number of people that are scared of him and that he's believed a lot of more optimistic assessments about Ukrainians laying down arms and welcoming their Russian liberators because it was what he wanted to hear.

Puja

[Sandydragon]

Yeah, seen the same thing myself. Which leads us to an interesting question of how he reacts when reality bites harder and just how loyal to him personally his entourage is. The whole Yes Sir Mr President gets difficult when he is asking you to commit war crimes by using chemical weapons.

Apparently many Russian soldiers didn’t realise that what they were doing was anything other than an exercise and now really aren’t happy at being in a proper war. That would explain some of the desertions and the rather lack lustre performance.