If Russia invades Ukraine (more)...

[Galfon]

Russ. losses to date, from Spec. data-tracker:

Ukraine’s estimate of Russian military losses, as of 6 a.m. on 2 March:
From 24 Feb to 2 Mar. Source: Ukrainian Ministry of Defence, which says figures are ‘indicative’ and ‘complicated by the high intensity of hostilities’. [All are denied by Moscow]

Military personnel 5,840
(prisoners) 200
Armoured vehicles 862
Wheeled vehicles 355
Tanks 211
Artillery 85
Fuel tanks 60
Rocket systems 40
Helicopters 31
Fixed wing aircraft 30
Drones 3
Boats 2

Seems alot that - if not in control by d10, financing & supplies could be awkward, reportedly.

[Sandydragon]

One of the things not hugely realised about armoured warfare is that the attackers lose a lot more equipment than the defenders, especially when the defenders have modern anti tank weapons.

The losses are exacerbated when tactics are poor and there have been numerous reports of Russian armoured units not cooperating with dismounted infantry which leaves them very vulnerable to man portable anti tank weapons. And it won’t get any better if they end up using armour in urban areas.

[Galfon]

The 40-mile serpentine convoy N. of Kiev - very slow moving: just a delay with supplies for the troops, or are many of the units just dummies as a terror tactic ?
(Seems a bit out of sync. with the softening-up bombardments.)

[Zhivago]

The 40-mile serpentine convoy N. of Kiev - very slow moving: just a delay with supplies for the troops, or are many of the units just dummies as a terror tactic ?
(Seems a bit out of sync. with the softening-up bombardments.)

It's a tailback cos they aren't moving forwards. With a blitzkrieg you have keep pushing units into the spearhead, but that rather presumes the spearhead is making inroads. In this case they're just piling up more units. All in a nice orderly row for Bayraktar to target. Also probably excacerbated by desertions no doubt.

[Puja]

The 40-mile serpentine convoy N. of Kiev - very slow moving: just a delay with supplies for the troops, or are many of the units just dummies as a terror tactic ?
(Seems a bit out of sync. with the softening-up bombardments.)

The problem with a column like that is it only takes one breakdown/running out of fuel/soldiers suddenly having a Mitchell and Webb "are we the baddies" moment for the whole thing to grind to a halt. The fields around are apparently impenetrable mud and so the only way out is through.

I'm not sure I understand how Russia are being this incompetent. First day, it was expected that they'd follow the usual doctrine for superior force vs inferior - use their massive air force to wipe out any air defences and then use your complete control of the skies to bomb any hint of military force to shit before sending the armour in to encircle the cities and demand Zelenskiy's surrender. Instead, they just appear to be feeding troops incompetently into meat grinders. It's not like they didn't have a lot of preparation time to get all of their pieces lined up just so - is there any theory as to why the Air Force has barely come out to play so far?

Puja

[Galfon]

..is there any theory as to why the Air Force has barely come out to play so far?
Puja

seems to have caused puzzlement to many - risk factor with Ukr. SAM capabilities & poor early co-ordination with ground forces commented here..
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/wh ... 022-03-01/

[Sandydragon]

I don’t understand why the Russian airforce has been so pathetic. I’ve spoke to some friends in the know, no one understands it. It’s like Russia doesn’t have the fuel to fly them which can’t be right.

The only theory that makes any sense is rhat Putin utterly bought into the theory that Ukraine would just collapse. The Russians then allocated their troops accordingly but when the fight became more intense no one is keen on asking for additional resources. I still think the Russians could be a lot more aggressive with the forces they have immediately available but that could also be said of the army. Entirely possible that many just don’t want to be there.


Regardless of the tactics used, that’s one massive target of a convoy that against an opponent with a better airforce than Ukraine would be badly punished. It’s probably held up by poor logistics planning as much as anything and damaged bridges etc. kind of keeps to the theme that this was really half arsed planning by the Russians.

More articles today about Russian soldiers performing very poorly. It’s becoming a theme.

I’m wondering that if the tank and file didn’t know they were going to invade, how many did? The top generals being informed is one thing but lots
Of middle rank people need to work to plan and manage these operations; if they were just focused on an exercise and this became a real operation very quickly then quite possibly the staff work and coordination just hasn’t happened.

[Banquo]

I don’t understand why the Russian airforce has been so pathetic. I’ve spoke to some friends in the know, no one understands it. It’s like Russia doesn’t have the fuel to fly them which can’t be right.

The only theory that makes any sense is rhat Putin utterly bought into the theory that Ukraine would just collapse. The Russians then allocated their troops accordingly but when the fight became more intense no one is keen on asking for additional resources. I still think the Russians could be a lot more aggressive with the forces they have immediately available but that could also be said of the army. Entirely possible that many just don’t want to be there.


Regardless of the tactics used, that’s one massive target of a convoy that against an opponent with a better airforce than Ukraine would be badly punished. It’s probably held up by poor logistics planning as much as anything and damaged bridges etc. kind of keeps to the theme that this was really half arsed planning by the Russians.

More articles today about Russian soldiers performing very poorly. It’s becoming a theme.

I’m wondering that if the tank and file didn’t know they were going to invade, how many did? The top generals being informed is one thing but lots
Of middle rank people need to work to plan and manage these operations; if they were just focused on an exercise and this became a real operation very quickly then quite possibly the staff work and coordination just hasn’t happened.

Could it be that they've sent the conscripts in first as cannon fodder- sort of rope a dope (bad taste, sorry)- and when the Ukraine forces start to tire and running short of munitions, they send the professionals in?

I'm surprised the Ukrainians didn't blow the bridge at Kherson too.

[Zhivago]

I don’t understand why the Russian airforce has been so pathetic. I’ve spoke to some friends in the know, no one understands it. It’s like Russia doesn’t have the fuel to fly them which can’t be right.

The only theory that makes any sense is rhat Putin utterly bought into the theory that Ukraine would just collapse. The Russians then allocated their troops accordingly but when the fight became more intense no one is keen on asking for additional resources. I still think the Russians could be a lot more aggressive with the forces they have immediately available but that could also be said of the army. Entirely possible that many just don’t want to be there.


Regardless of the tactics used, that’s one massive target of a convoy that against an opponent with a better airforce than Ukraine would be badly punished. It’s probably held up by poor logistics planning as much as anything and damaged bridges etc. kind of keeps to the theme that this was really half arsed planning by the Russians.

More articles today about Russian soldiers performing very poorly. It’s becoming a theme.

I’m wondering that if the tank and file didn’t know they were going to invade, how many did? The top generals being informed is one thing but lots
Of middle rank people need to work to plan and manage these operations; if they were just focused on an exercise and this became a real operation very quickly then quite possibly the staff work and coordination just hasn’t happened.

Ukraine has sufficient ground-air defence. Lots of man pads etc. For air-ground attacks Russians are using long range missiles to stay out of harms way. There is definitely something to be said for better air-air from Russia, but Ukraine is a large country, and Russian pilots also don't have many flight hours. The Ukrainians can get up in the air, do their sortie, and get back behind defences before the Russians can get to them.

It is very notable that the Russians have deceived their own forces to invade in many cases. It is a very strange way to carry out an invasion. Also they are drafting in village boys from far flung parts of Russia. I guess they really expected Ukrainians to just surrender. Probably a consequence of believing their own propaganda too much. Must also be due to bad counsel that Putin is getting, and he has a very skewed picture of the reality.

There is talk that Putin is going to enact martial law soon. That's a pretty scary prospect. But also seems like Putin is in denial, and he sees only escalation as the way out. Escalate to de-escalate. Miscalculated this time, he escalated too much.

[Zhivago]

I don’t understand why the Russian airforce has been so pathetic. I’ve spoke to some friends in the know, no one understands it. It’s like Russia doesn’t have the fuel to fly them which can’t be right.

The only theory that makes any sense is rhat Putin utterly bought into the theory that Ukraine would just collapse. The Russians then allocated their troops accordingly but when the fight became more intense no one is keen on asking for additional resources. I still think the Russians could be a lot more aggressive with the forces they have immediately available but that could also be said of the army. Entirely possible that many just don’t want to be there.


Regardless of the tactics used, that’s one massive target of a convoy that against an opponent with a better airforce than Ukraine would be badly punished. It’s probably held up by poor logistics planning as much as anything and damaged bridges etc. kind of keeps to the theme that this was really half arsed planning by the Russians.

More articles today about Russian soldiers performing very poorly. It’s becoming a theme.

I’m wondering that if the tank and file didn’t know they were going to invade, how many did? The top generals being informed is one thing but lots
Of middle rank people need to work to plan and manage these operations; if they were just focused on an exercise and this became a real operation very quickly then quite possibly the staff work and coordination just hasn’t happened.

Could it be that they've sent the conscripts in first as cannon fodder- sort of rope a dope (bad taste, sorry)- and when the Ukraine forces start to tire and running short of munitions, they send the professionals in?

I'm surprised the Ukrainians didn't blow the bridge at Kherson too.

Ukrainians will be planning to take back Kherson. It isn't the first time they've lost it in this war. Kyiv is the most important at the moment, after that is safe, more resources can be brought to the south.

[Puja]

I don’t understand why the Russian airforce has been so pathetic. I’ve spoke to some friends in the know, no one understands it. It’s like Russia doesn’t have the fuel to fly them which can’t be right.

The only theory that makes any sense is rhat Putin utterly bought into the theory that Ukraine would just collapse. The Russians then allocated their troops accordingly but when the fight became more intense no one is keen on asking for additional resources. I still think the Russians could be a lot more aggressive with the forces they have immediately available but that could also be said of the army. Entirely possible that many just don’t want to be there.


Regardless of the tactics used, that’s one massive target of a convoy that against an opponent with a better airforce than Ukraine would be badly punished. It’s probably held up by poor logistics planning as much as anything and damaged bridges etc. kind of keeps to the theme that this was really half arsed planning by the Russians.

More articles today about Russian soldiers performing very poorly. It’s becoming a theme.

I’m wondering that if the tank and file didn’t know they were going to invade, how many did? The top generals being informed is one thing but lots
Of middle rank people need to work to plan and manage these operations; if they were just focused on an exercise and this became a real operation very quickly then quite possibly the staff work and coordination just hasn’t happened.

Could it be that they've sent the conscripts in first as cannon fodder- sort of rope a dope (bad taste, sorry)- and when the Ukraine forces start to tire and running short of munitions, they send the professionals in?

I'm surprised the Ukrainians didn't blow the bridge at Kherson too.

I don't see that as being particularly sensible though, as the last thing they want to do is give the Ukranians any confidence. Roll in and crush them utterly and you'll end up with the Russia-Georgia war, where everyone shook their heads and grumbled, but it was inevitable - what could you expect from the might of the Russian superpower against the little minnows.

Any rope-a-dope means that, for every Russian soldier that dies, ten Ukranians start to believe that this is winnable. Even if they do overpower them in the long run, that's still creating a national story around resisting the Russian invaders and they'll have a new Afghanistan on their hands.

Puja

[Sandydragon]

I don’t understand why the Russian airforce has been so pathetic. I’ve spoke to some friends in the know, no one understands it. It’s like Russia doesn’t have the fuel to fly them which can’t be right.

The only theory that makes any sense is rhat Putin utterly bought into the theory that Ukraine would just collapse. The Russians then allocated their troops accordingly but when the fight became more intense no one is keen on asking for additional resources. I still think the Russians could be a lot more aggressive with the forces they have immediately available but that could also be said of the army. Entirely possible that many just don’t want to be there.


Regardless of the tactics used, that’s one massive target of a convoy that against an opponent with a better airforce than Ukraine would be badly punished. It’s probably held up by poor logistics planning as much as anything and damaged bridges etc. kind of keeps to the theme that this was really half arsed planning by the Russians.

More articles today about Russian soldiers performing very poorly. It’s becoming a theme.

I’m wondering that if the tank and file didn’t know they were going to invade, how many did? The top generals being informed is one thing but lots
Of middle rank people need to work to plan and manage these operations; if they were just focused on an exercise and this became a real operation very quickly then quite possibly the staff work and coordination just hasn’t happened.

Could it be that they've sent the conscripts in first as cannon fodder- sort of rope a dope (bad taste, sorry)- and when the Ukraine forces start to tire and running short of munitions, they send the professionals in?

I'm surprised the Ukrainians didn't blow the bridge at Kherson too.

I’d agree with Pujas comments below. Better to win quick than give any impression of weakness.

[Sandydragon]

I don’t understand why the Russian airforce has been so pathetic. I’ve spoke to some friends in the know, no one understands it. It’s like Russia doesn’t have the fuel to fly them which can’t be right.

The only theory that makes any sense is rhat Putin utterly bought into the theory that Ukraine would just collapse. The Russians then allocated their troops accordingly but when the fight became more intense no one is keen on asking for additional resources. I still think the Russians could be a lot more aggressive with the forces they have immediately available but that could also be said of the army. Entirely possible that many just don’t want to be there.


Regardless of the tactics used, that’s one massive target of a convoy that against an opponent with a better airforce than Ukraine would be badly punished. It’s probably held up by poor logistics planning as much as anything and damaged bridges etc. kind of keeps to the theme that this was really half arsed planning by the Russians.

More articles today about Russian soldiers performing very poorly. It’s becoming a theme.

I’m wondering that if the tank and file didn’t know they were going to invade, how many did? The top generals being informed is one thing but lots
Of middle rank people need to work to plan and manage these operations; if they were just focused on an exercise and this became a real operation very quickly then quite possibly the staff work and coordination just hasn’t happened.

Ukraine has sufficient ground-air defence. Lots of man pads etc. For air-ground attacks Russians are using long range missiles to stay out of harms way. There is definitely something to be said for better air-air from Russia, but Ukraine is a large country, and Russian pilots also don't have many flight hours. The Ukrainians can get up in the air, do their sortie, and get back behind defences before the Russians can get to them.

It is very notable that the Russians have deceived their own forces to invade in many cases. It is a very strange way to carry out an invasion. Also they are drafting in village boys from far flung parts of Russia. I guess they really expected Ukrainians to just surrender. Probably a consequence of believing their own propaganda too much. Must also be due to bad counsel that Putin is getting, and he has a very skewed picture of the reality.

There is talk that Putin is going to enact martial law soon. That's a pretty scary prospect. But also seems like Putin is in denial, and he sees only escalation as the way out. Escalate to de-escalate. Miscalculated this time, he escalated too much.

Martial law is not a great prospect but perhaps a sign that the limited protests are making Putin very nervous?

I take your point about Ukraine being a big country but you don’t need to have air superiority over the whole country at the same time. Having air superiority over the forward edge of battle area is sufficient in most cases and leave the long range stuff to unmanned missiles, or escort longer range bombers.

The more I think about it the more it feels that the Russian military was as badly deceived as the Russian population. Sent to the western provinces and Belarus for exercises then rapidly pushed into combat ops. A competent military can repivot if necessary but only if the game panning is realistic. Obviously ot hasn’t been and logistics planning is crucial. Lots of arm chair strategists and indeed poor commanders focus on tactics and equipment but logistics is key. A competent logs plan wouldn’t let breakdowns etc cause a 40 mile tail back. Main supply routes are very carefully controlled and managed by military police (it’s a key combat capability of MPs in every military I’ve worked with). Modern warfare with armoured and mechanised units demands huge amounts of logistics to function and keeping that supply chain running is more important than tactical genius.

[Puja]

There is talk that Putin is going to enact martial law soon. That's a pretty scary prospect. But also seems like Putin is in denial, and he sees only escalation as the way out. Escalate to de-escalate. Miscalculated this time, he escalated too much.

Martial law is not a great prospect but perhaps a sign that the limited protests are making Putin very nervous?

A nervous Putin is worrying though - Russians don't follow weak leaders and a strongman who is seen to lose a war to a weaker opponent won't last long. If he regards winning the war as an existential threat to his leadership and it doesn't become winnable, there's no limit to what he might do. The quote of "What's the point of a world if it doesn't have Russia in it?" is alarming enough when you don't take the corollary that Putin believes that he is Russia. Mutually Assured Destruction doesn't weigh heavily if you feel you're already on the verge of destruction anyway.

Puja

[Galfon]

.. Must also be due to bad counsel that Putin is getting, and he has a very skewed picture of the reality...

Maybe he can't hear everything they are telling him - this is 3 days in, 'a la Macron' with his 2 top military chiefs.
'Detached' appears to be his preferred stance these days.

[Banquo]

I don’t understand why the Russian airforce has been so pathetic. I’ve spoke to some friends in the know, no one understands it. It’s like Russia doesn’t have the fuel to fly them which can’t be right.

The only theory that makes any sense is rhat Putin utterly bought into the theory that Ukraine would just collapse. The Russians then allocated their troops accordingly but when the fight became more intense no one is keen on asking for additional resources. I still think the Russians could be a lot more aggressive with the forces they have immediately available but that could also be said of the army. Entirely possible that many just don’t want to be there.


Regardless of the tactics used, that’s one massive target of a convoy that against an opponent with a better airforce than Ukraine would be badly punished. It’s probably held up by poor logistics planning as much as anything and damaged bridges etc. kind of keeps to the theme that this was really half arsed planning by the Russians.

More articles today about Russian soldiers performing very poorly. It’s becoming a theme.

I’m wondering that if the tank and file didn’t know they were going to invade, how many did? The top generals being informed is one thing but lots
Of middle rank people need to work to plan and manage these operations; if they were just focused on an exercise and this became a real operation very quickly then quite possibly the staff work and coordination just hasn’t happened.

Could it be that they've sent the conscripts in first as cannon fodder- sort of rope a dope (bad taste, sorry)- and when the Ukraine forces start to tire and running short of munitions, they send the professionals in?

I'm surprised the Ukrainians didn't blow the bridge at Kherson too.

I don't see that as being particularly sensible though, as the last thing they want to do is give the Ukranians any confidence. Roll in and crush them utterly and you'll end up with the Russia-Georgia war, where everyone shook their heads and grumbled, but it was inevitable - what could you expect from the might of the Russian superpower against the little minnows.

Any rope-a-dope means that, for every Russian soldier that dies, ten Ukranians start to believe that this is winnable. Even if they do overpower them in the long run, that's still creating a national story around resisting the Russian invaders and they'll have a new Afghanistan on their hands.

Puja

Sorry Monty . Is anything 'sensible' here

It seems to be conscripts that are being captured.

[Puja]

Could it be that they've sent the conscripts in first as cannon fodder- sort of rope a dope (bad taste, sorry)- and when the Ukraine forces start to tire and running short of munitions, they send the professionals in?

I'm surprised the Ukrainians didn't blow the bridge at Kherson too.

I don't see that as being particularly sensible though, as the last thing they want to do is give the Ukranians any confidence. Roll in and crush them utterly and you'll end up with the Russia-Georgia war, where everyone shook their heads and grumbled, but it was inevitable - what could you expect from the might of the Russian superpower against the little minnows.

Any rope-a-dope means that, for every Russian soldier that dies, ten Ukranians start to believe that this is winnable. Even if they do overpower them in the long run, that's still creating a national story around resisting the Russian invaders and they'll have a new Afghanistan on their hands.

Puja

Sorry Monty . Is anything 'sensible' here

It seems to be conscripts that are being captured.

Good point; well made

Puja

[Zhivago]

.. Must also be due to bad counsel that Putin is getting, and he has a very skewed picture of the reality...

Maybe he can't hear everything they are telling him - this is 3 days in, 'a la Macron' with his 2 top military chiefs.
'Detached' appears to be his preferred stance these days.

The rumour is that Putin is unwell. Could explain his urgency around creating a legacy for himself. Also a suggestion that he's on very high dose of steroids that can cause behavioural changes.

[Zhivago]

I don’t understand why the Russian airforce has been so pathetic. I’ve spoke to some friends in the know, no one understands it. It’s like Russia doesn’t have the fuel to fly them which can’t be right.

The only theory that makes any sense is rhat Putin utterly bought into the theory that Ukraine would just collapse. The Russians then allocated their troops accordingly but when the fight became more intense no one is keen on asking for additional resources. I still think the Russians could be a lot more aggressive with the forces they have immediately available but that could also be said of the army. Entirely possible that many just don’t want to be there.


Regardless of the tactics used, that’s one massive target of a convoy that against an opponent with a better airforce than Ukraine would be badly punished. It’s probably held up by poor logistics planning as much as anything and damaged bridges etc. kind of keeps to the theme that this was really half arsed planning by the Russians.

More articles today about Russian soldiers performing very poorly. It’s becoming a theme.

I’m wondering that if the tank and file didn’t know they were going to invade, how many did? The top generals being informed is one thing but lots
Of middle rank people need to work to plan and manage these operations; if they were just focused on an exercise and this became a real operation very quickly then quite possibly the staff work and coordination just hasn’t happened.

Ukraine has sufficient ground-air defence. Lots of man pads etc. For air-ground attacks Russians are using long range missiles to stay out of harms way. There is definitely something to be said for better air-air from Russia, but Ukraine is a large country, and Russian pilots also don't have many flight hours. The Ukrainians can get up in the air, do their sortie, and get back behind defences before the Russians can get to them.

It is very notable that the Russians have deceived their own forces to invade in many cases. It is a very strange way to carry out an invasion. Also they are drafting in village boys from far flung parts of Russia. I guess they really expected Ukrainians to just surrender. Probably a consequence of believing their own propaganda too much. Must also be due to bad counsel that Putin is getting, and he has a very skewed picture of the reality.

There is talk that Putin is going to enact martial law soon. That's a pretty scary prospect. But also seems like Putin is in denial, and he sees only escalation as the way out. Escalate to de-escalate. Miscalculated this time, he escalated too much.

Martial law is not a great prospect but perhaps a sign that the limited protests are making Putin very nervous?

I take your point about Ukraine being a big country but you don’t need to have air superiority over the whole country at the same time. Having air superiority over the forward edge of battle area is sufficient in most cases and leave the long range stuff to unmanned missiles, or escort longer range bombers.

The more I think about it the more it feels that the Russian military was as badly deceived as the Russian population. Sent to the western provinces and Belarus for exercises then rapidly pushed into combat ops. A competent military can repivot if necessary but only if the game panning is realistic. Obviously ot hasn’t been and logistics planning is crucial. Lots of arm chair strategists and indeed poor commanders focus on tactics and equipment butlogistics is key. A competent logs plan wouldn’t let breakdowns etc cause a 40 mile tail back. Main supply routes are very carefully controlled and managed by military police (it’s a key combat capability of MPs in every military I’ve worked with). Modern warfare with armoured and mechanised units demands huge amounts of logistics to function and keeping that supply chain running is more important than tactical genius.

Here the Ukrainians have been quite smart. They have really been going after the supply lines etc a lot, both with conventional and guerilla/civilian resistance means. It seems like that along with Russia's own failings have made this a very evenly matched affair.

It should also be noted that they are only going on the highways - probably due to Xi wanting it to be after his Olympic games. That seems to have royally fcked the Russian army.

Reports are that Russian casualties are now around 9k. The Ukrainian army has pushed back to the border in Sumy, and are recapturing territory north west of Kyiv. The south remains problematic, but I imagine they are prioritising Kyiv.

[Son of Mathonwy]

There is talk that Putin is going to enact martial law soon. That's a pretty scary prospect. But also seems like Putin is in denial, and he sees only escalation as the way out. Escalate to de-escalate. Miscalculated this time, he escalated too much.

Martial law is not a great prospect but perhaps a sign that the limited protests are making Putin very nervous?

A nervous Putin is worrying though - Russians don't follow weak leaders and a strongman who is seen to lose a war to a weaker opponent won't last long. If he regards winning the war as an existential threat to his leadership and it doesn't become winnable, there's no limit to what he might do. The quote of "What's the point of a world if it doesn't have Russia in it?" is alarming enough when you don't take the corollary that Putin believes that he is Russia. Mutually Assured Destruction doesn't weigh heavily if you feel you're already on the verge of destruction anyway.

Puja

Russia has such a short history of democracy (or what passes for it) that we really don't know this for a fact. Hopefully they are better than this.

Putin has many children and grandchildren. He's not going to be indifferent to the end of the world. So I still think this hard/crazy man stuff is ultimately a bluff. Neither are his lieutenants indifferent to Armageddon - they may fear for their lives under normal circumstances but this would become irrelevant in the face of Putin trying to press the big button. They wouldn't let it happen.

We need to be calm, united and firm. Otherwise it won't stop with Ukraine. The Ukrainians are doing the world (or at least, the Democratic world) a heroic service here. We need to keep them supplied, and then rebuild their country when it's over.

[Banquo]

Martial law is not a great prospect but perhaps a sign that the limited protests are making Putin very nervous?

A nervous Putin is worrying though - Russians don't follow weak leaders and a strongman who is seen to lose a war to a weaker opponent won't last long. If he regards winning the war as an existential threat to his leadership and it doesn't become winnable, there's no limit to what he might do. The quote of "What's the point of a world if it doesn't have Russia in it?" is alarming enough when you don't take the corollary that Putin believes that he is Russia. Mutually Assured Destruction doesn't weigh heavily if you feel you're already on the verge of destruction anyway.

Puja

Russia has such a short history of democracy (or what passes for it) that we really don't know this for a fact. Hopefully they are better than this.

Putin has many children and grandchildren. He's not going to be indifferent to the end of the world. So I still think this hard/crazy man stuff is ultimately a bluff. Neither are his lieutenants indifferent to Armageddon - they may fear for their lives under normal circumstances but this would become irrelevant in the face of Putin trying to press the big button. They wouldn't let it happen.

We need to be calm, united and firm. Otherwise it won't stop with Ukraine. The Ukrainians are doing the world (or at least, the Democratic world) a heroic service here. We need to keep them supplied, and then rebuild their country when it's over.

as a sort of tangent, deploying tactical nuclear weapons is kind of standard war procedure for the Russian army according to Dannett. So...

[Son of Mathonwy]

A nervous Putin is worrying though - Russians don't follow weak leaders and a strongman who is seen to lose a war to a weaker opponent won't last long. If he regards winning the war as an existential threat to his leadership and it doesn't become winnable, there's no limit to what he might do. The quote of "What's the point of a world if it doesn't have Russia in it?" is alarming enough when you don't take the corollary that Putin believes that he is Russia. Mutually Assured Destruction doesn't weigh heavily if you feel you're already on the verge of destruction anyway.

Puja

Russia has such a short history of democracy (or what passes for it) that we really don't know this for a fact. Hopefully they are better than this.

Putin has many children and grandchildren. He's not going to be indifferent to the end of the world. So I still think this hard/crazy man stuff is ultimately a bluff. Neither are his lieutenants indifferent to Armageddon - they may fear for their lives under normal circumstances but this would become irrelevant in the face of Putin trying to press the big button. They wouldn't let it happen.

We need to be calm, united and firm. Otherwise it won't stop with Ukraine. The Ukrainians are doing the world (or at least, the Democratic world) a heroic service here. We need to keep them supplied, and then rebuild their country when it's over.

as a sort of tangent, deploying tactical nuclear weapons is kind of standard war procedure for the Russian army according to Dannett. So...

It may be standard in a book. Never used in reality though...

[Banquo]

Russia has such a short history of democracy (or what passes for it) that we really don't know this for a fact. Hopefully they are better than this.

Putin has many children and grandchildren. He's not going to be indifferent to the end of the world. So I still think this hard/crazy man stuff is ultimately a bluff. Neither are his lieutenants indifferent to Armageddon - they may fear for their lives under normal circumstances but this would become irrelevant in the face of Putin trying to press the big button. They wouldn't let it happen.

We need to be calm, united and firm. Otherwise it won't stop with Ukraine. The Ukrainians are doing the world (or at least, the Democratic world) a heroic service here. We need to keep them supplied, and then rebuild their country when it's over.

as a sort of tangent, deploying tactical nuclear weapons is kind of standard war procedure for the Russian army according to Dannett. So...

It may be standard in a book. Never used in reality though...

The point is, tactical nuclear weapons are not regarded in the same way by the russion military as by us.....never say never

[Galfon]

Ouch #1 (t'Rouble getting reddies out...)


Ouch #2 - war escalates - Russ. launches attack on fifa/uefa..
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/60607645

[Galfon]

Some clear points from Finn. ex-p.m and pro-European Alexander Stubb.(tw!tter). His country has been invaded itself of course in the last 100 years, and is very much in the firing line bý considering joining NATO. :

1. The security threat is real. Putin wants to take over Ukraine, revamp the security structure of Europe & keep Finland & Sweden out of Nato. We must assume that his actions have no limits.

2. Putin is driven by nostalgia and legacy. Nostalgia of historic Russia with one language, one religion and one leader. A legacy of a leader who has made ”Russia great again”. He thus sees Belarus and Ukraine as part of Russia. Won’t necessarily stop there.

3. We are beyond the point of no return. Putin has attacked three times in 14 years (2008, 2014 and 2022). The reaction of Ukraine and its people is heroic. The rest of the world (UN) is historically united against Russia. Counter measures have been firm and fast.

4. Putin has achieved in one week the exact opposite of what he wanted: i.e. the Europeanisation of Ukraine, revitalisation of the Transatlantic relationship, the rejuvenation of Nato, unity of the EU and a radical shift in support for Nato membership in Finland and Sweden

5. Putin’s actions are causing massive harm to the Russian people. The sanctions will be as total as the isolation. No area will be speared: finance, trade, goods, services, individuals, culture, sport, energy, transport. Reserves will not last forever.

6. The world has thus changed. We have moved from a post Cold War era to a Hot War. A new Iron Curtain has been erected. We just don’t know exactly where and for how long. We need peace mediation and a ceasefire as soon as possible. The loss of life is immeasurable.

7. This is as much a fight about life, security and identity, as it is about ideology and way of life. Europe is now again split between an aggressive authoritarian regime and cooperative democracies. The aggressor will continue to pose a threat for the foreseeable future.

8. Putin has no option. He has to succeed. But Russia’s isolation will not change before regime change. Can happen only from the inside. Russian revolutions (1917/1991) - are copyright of Russian people. Their capacity to experince discomfort is high, but there is always a limit.

9. Lots of national and international talk of Finnish Nato membership. Never underestimate the capacity of Finns to remain calm, collected and determined in the face of adversity, threat and change. We have been here before and know what to do.

10. In the words of President
Niinisto: ”In the midst of an acute crisis, however, it is particularly important to keep a cool head and to assess with care the impact of past and possible future changes on our security - not hesitating, but with care ".