If Russia invades Ukraine (more)...

[Sandydragon]

This is just nightmarish: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60600487

We think we've got it bad with people brainwashed by the Daily Mail, but at least there is an ability to get an opposing viewpoint here. It's a completely alternative reality over there, with the only news channels willing to report anything but the Kremlin's fiction of "military targets only, just helping the Donbas, removing the unpopular Nazis and welcomed by the Ukranian people" having just been permanently closed.

Puja

Those reports are eerily similar to my attempts to explain to my parents that Brexit might have negative consequences. The Mail can brainwash with the best of them.

That same thought occurred to me earlier. Brexit now a taboo subject between my parents and I.

[Which Tyler]

The new British tradition of clapping instead of helping.

Note, we're still not letting in refugees unless they'd have been let in anyway (having family with settled status)
Note, we're still not actually seizing assets of Putin & his oligarchs
Note, we're still giving Russian companies 30 days notice before sanctions are actually imposed


Mr Prystaiko would have seen our parliament in action on Wednesday, and heard BJ constantly defending and dodging questions about his lack of action - I don't recall anything from that session that would have made him feel optimistic about Britain's response to the crisis.

But I'm sure he appreciated the applause.

[J Dory]

The new British tradition of clapping instead of helping.

Note, we're still not letting in refugees unless they'd have been let in anyway (having family with settled status)
Note, we're still not actually seizing assets of Putin & his oligarchs
Note, we're still giving Russian companies 30 days notice before sanctions are actually imposed


Mr Prystaiko would have seen our parliament in action on Wednesday, and heard BJ constantly defending and dodging questions about his lack of action - I don't recall anything from that session that would have made him feel optimistic about Britain's response to the crisis.

But I'm sure he appreciated the applause.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-60618818

[morepork]

What a pack of thundercunts. They all hide behind beneficiary bashing while sucking the life out of the whole planet. Fuck these people.

[Zhivago]

The numbers are fairly even (if anything they are in Ukraine's favour when considering mobilization), the main difference is that Russia has superior air power.

History is the best example, conceding territory and retreating to redoubts before launching a counter offensive is how the Red Army defeated the Nazis on the Eastern Front.

Erm, I’d suggest that the majority of Soviet troops were hammered in place before fresh forces were able to get to grips with the Germans. Millions surrounded and taken prisoner suggests they weren’t pulling back but we’re out thought and out fought before learning how to fight on the same terms, or at least effectively.

That said, not letting your best forces get destroyed on day one is always a good idea and cities are very defensible. Much will depend on how aggressive the Russians are when they come up against heavy fighting and how much care they take to avoid unnecessary civilian casualties.

I accept that the Soviets were taken by surprise during the early part of the Eastern Front, but one of the best examples of defeating Blitzkrieg is the Battle of Kursk.

Apparently the Ukrainians are carrying out a defensive strategy called 'maneuver defence'

[Son of Mathonwy]

The new British tradition of clapping instead of helping.

Note, we're still not letting in refugees unless they'd have been let in anyway (having family with settled status)
Note, we're still not actually seizing assets of Putin & his oligarchs
Note, we're still giving Russian companies 30 days notice before sanctions are actually imposed


Mr Prystaiko would have seen our parliament in action on Wednesday, and heard BJ constantly defending and dodging questions about his lack of action - I don't recall anything from that session that would have made him feel optimistic about Britain's response to the crisis.

But I'm sure he appreciated the applause.

These arseholes can still surprise me. I am so fucking naïve. I really thought this was a moment where doing the right thing rather than creating the appearance of doing the right thing was actually happening with this government. Putin knows who his real buddies/assets are. Just wait till Trump 2024.

[Puja]

Meanwhile, even before companies like Remington started chucking their ammo at Ukraine to use on the Russians, the US had spent the last year or so secretly pumping them with roughly $1billion in arms, equipment and training - including giving them gear that was lying around not being used.

Probably a godsend to the inhabitants of US cities that they've found somewhere else for their military surplus to go other than giving it to their police.

Puja

[Which Tyler]

Meanwhile, even before companies like Remington started chucking their ammo at Ukraine to use on the Russians, the US had spent the last year or so secretly pumping them with roughly $1billion in arms, equipment and training - including giving them gear that was lying around not being used.

Probably a godsend to the inhabitants of US cities that they've found somewhere else for their military surplus to go other than giving it to their police.

Puja

[Sandydragon]

Erm, I’d suggest that the majority of Soviet troops were hammered in place before fresh forces were able to get to grips with the Germans. Millions surrounded and taken prisoner suggests they weren’t pulling back but we’re out thought and out fought before learning how to fight on the same terms, or at least effectively.

That said, not letting your best forces get destroyed on day one is always a good idea and cities are very defensible. Much will depend on how aggressive the Russians are when they come up against heavy fighting and how much care they take to avoid unnecessary civilian casualties.

I accept that the Soviets were taken by surprise during the early part of the Eastern Front, but one of the best examples of defeating Blitzkrieg is the Battle of Kursk.

Apparently the Ukrainians are carrying out a defensive strategy called 'maneuver defence'

That will be the influence of the nato training. The Russians would be expected to rely on huge firepower to overwhelm defences (and it looks like they are reverting to type). Holding ground indefinitely would just give them targets. Better to keep moving although it takes good discipline training and comms to do that. Our training has worked well it seems

[Galfon]

VP has warned Western leaders that the economic punishments being heaped on Russia are 'akin to a declaration of war'.. he'll find justification.
Also cautioned Ukrainian leaders that continued resistance could call 'into question the future of Ukrainian statehood'..
Yup, 'heads I win, tails you lose' chaps..

Wonder how long it will be before he stops the flow of Russians leaving their country for Finland and elsewhere.

Zelensky wants Polish Mig-29's; just re-badge 'em etc....seems reasonable.

[Sandydragon]

The new British tradition of clapping instead of helping.

Note, we're still not letting in refugees unless they'd have been let in anyway (having family with settled status)
Note, we're still not actually seizing assets of Putin & his oligarchs
Note, we're still giving Russian companies 30 days notice before sanctions are actually imposed


Mr Prystaiko would have seen our parliament in action on Wednesday, and heard BJ constantly defending and dodging questions about his lack of action - I don't recall anything from that session that would have made him feel optimistic about Britain's response to the crisis.

But I'm sure he appreciated the applause.

These arseholes can still surprise me. I am so fucking naïve. I really thought this was a moment where doing the right thing rather than creating the appearance of doing the right thing was actually happening with this government. Putin knows who his real buddies/assets are. Just wait till Trump 2024.

No. Sadly Boris is just
Making a show of saying the right thing but not actually doing that much. He knows Biden is the one who is calling the shot with Macron and Schulz next in level of importance. But he can appear a statesmanlike hawk whilst failing to grapple with the billions of dodgy Russian money sloshing about the government.

[Zhivago]

I accept that the Soviets were taken by surprise during the early part of the Eastern Front, but one of the best examples of defeating Blitzkrieg is the Battle of Kursk.

Apparently the Ukrainians are carrying out a defensive strategy called 'maneuver defence'

That will be the influence of the nato training. The Russians would be expected to rely on huge firepower to overwhelm defences (and it looks like they are reverting to type). Holding ground indefinitely would just give them targets. Better to keep moving although it takes good discipline training and comms to do that. Our training has worked well it seems

Training on the side of the Russians also key
https://www.popularmechanics.com/milita ... explained/

[Galfon]

Starts with a trickle..
No wonder he's blocking news channels.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60640204

[paddy no 11]

Starts with a trickle..
No wonder he's blocking news channels.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60640204

Takes serious bravery to protest there, I hope it counts

[Which Tyler]

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[Sandydragon]

Russia would need to commit about half of its armed forces to keep control against a population that isn't totally compliant.

[paddy no 11]

Seriously though, I struggle to see any scenario now in which Russia can maintain a long-term hold over Ukraine.

1. The Russian assumption that they've already got Ukrainian hearts and minds has been comprehensively proven false. Russian warship, go fuck yourself; Slava Ukraini and all that. Insisting that they're a fake country that by all rights should be a Russian colony, if not outright a part of Russia as part of Putin's imperialist delusions when they've got a long, and unique history and a distinct culture appears to have pissed them off. Can't imagine why.

2. Russian logistics as soon as they cross their border is a goddamned joke. No fuel, no food, what the actual shit, Vladimir. 40 years on from Afghanistan, and you still haven't learned a goddamned thing.

3. Ukraine is huge. Actually, it's bigger than that, it's large. If you don't count Russia as a European country, it's the biggest European nation. If you do, it's the second biggest. It's one big boy.

End result is that you've got an army that has been exposed as a fucking joke, in a fuck-off huge country, full of people that hate your fucking guts, and have developed a taste for humiliating and killing you. They've made it clear that Ukraine is their country, and they want you to get the hell out yesterday. Have fun holding on to Ukraine in those circumstances, and good luck, because you're gonna need it.

Oh, and as an added bonus, plenty of your own citizens have been emboldened enough to call you a cunt at the top of their lungs, your oligarch buddies are getting their shit snatched away from them where they've stashed it, and the Russian economy, which was never as big as you'd think it was, is currently in mid-collapse.

Nuclear and China are still factors here, this is far from done.

[Stom]

Who's to say China aren't already involved?

Who's to say they didn't tweak Putin's balls just to make sure he invaded, so that they could see how it went in relation to their (surely) planned Taiwan aims.

Who's to say that this isn't simply a pretty appalling distraction tool?

Honestly, I'm so fed up of people trying to understand the reasoning when that reasoning only makes sense through the lens of some kind of mental illness.

[paddy no 11]

Who's to say China aren't already involved?

Who's to say they didn't tweak Putin's balls just to make sure he invaded, so that they could see how it went in relation to their (surely) planned Taiwan aims.

Who's to say that this isn't simply a pretty appalling distraction tool?

Honestly, I'm so fed up of people trying to understand the reasoning when that reasoning only makes sense through the lens of some kind of mental illness.

Hardly mental illness stom
Fundamental nationalism, greed, self delusion has had the world in the same place before

[paddy no 11]

Agreed on the vote, but Vlad could end up with a reporting line to xi here, there is huge scope for China to capitalise on Russian resources here

[Son of Mathonwy]

Seriously though, I struggle to see any scenario now in which Russia can maintain a long-term hold over Ukraine.

1. The Russian assumption that they've already got Ukrainian hearts and minds has been comprehensively proven false. Russian warship, go fuck yourself; Slava Ukraini and all that. Insisting that they're a fake country that by all rights should be a Russian colony, if not outright a part of Russia as part of Putin's imperialist delusions when they've got a long, and unique history and a distinct culture appears to have pissed them off. Can't imagine why.

2. Russian logistics as soon as they cross their border is a goddamned joke. No fuel, no food, what the actual shit, Vladimir. 40 years on from Afghanistan, and you still haven't learned a goddamned thing.

3. Ukraine is huge. Actually, it's bigger than that, it's large. If you don't count Russia as a European country, it's the biggest European nation. If you do, it's the second biggest. It's one big boy.

End result is that you've got an army that has been exposed as a fucking joke, in a fuck-off huge country, full of people that hate your fucking guts, and have developed a taste for humiliating and killing you. They've made it clear that Ukraine is their country, and they want you to get the hell out yesterday. Have fun holding on to Ukraine in those circumstances, and good luck, because you're gonna need it.

Oh, and as an added bonus, plenty of your own citizens have been emboldened enough to call you a cunt at the top of their lungs, your oligarch buddies are getting their shit snatched away from them where they've stashed it, and the Russian economy, which was never as big as you'd think it was, is currently in mid-collapse.

I hope you're right. I think there's far too little (independent) information about the details of the war, on the ground, to draw any conclusions yet. On the economic front though, I don't see how Russia can continue with this in the medium term.

[Sandydragon]

Who's to say China aren't already involved?

Who's to say they didn't tweak Putin's balls just to make sure he invaded, so that they could see how it went in relation to their (surely) planned Taiwan aims.

Who's to say that this isn't simply a pretty appalling distraction tool?

Honestly, I'm so fed up of people trying to understand the reasoning when that reasoning only makes sense through the lens of some kind of mental illness.

China is playing it coy. What do they have to lose, assuming we don’t end up with a full scale nuclear war which screws everyone. Russia tests western resolve. China can be the mediator and look like a peace maker.

[Galfon]

MoD update from this morning:

"The large Russian column north west of Kyiv has made little progress in over a week and is suffering continued losses at the hands of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

There has been a notable decrease in overall Russian air activity over Ukraine in recent days, likely due to the unexpected effectiveness and endurance of Ukrainian Air Defence forces

Russia has deployed conscript troops to Ukraine despite previous public assurances from President Putin not to do so. As casualties mount, President Putin will be forced to draw from across the Russian Armed Forces and other sources to replace his losses. "

Looks like as predicted, 2 weeks in & Russ. appear to be hitting problems in financing the continuing venture.

[paddy no 11]

Get these cunts to the Hague please

State of mariupol

Putin is just jacking up the body count now

[Zhivago]

Russians using Chechen forces as barrier troops now to prevent desertion