If Russia invades Ukraine (more)...

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Puja
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Re: If Russia invades Ukraine (more)...

Post by Puja »

cashead wrote:The NACP, Ukraine's anti-corruption watchdog has thanked the Russian Minister of Defence, Sergei Shoygu for his corruption. According to them, they've found that the protective barriers on the Russian T-72 and T-80 tanks are made from cardboard egg trays, and the Russian bullet-proof vests that they've found in captured APCs are made of cardboard.

While a grain of salt is needed, it's also entirely plausible under Shoygu's command, when he's been busy with opening up the military to influence from various lobby groups and grifters - something which his predecessor, Anatoly Serdyukov, was deposed for fighting and reducing.

Russia has also lost nine colonels and generals in the two weeks since this war has started, and it's safe to assume a proportional number of NCOs are being killed each week as well.

It would explain why they still haven't taken Kharkiv, despite it being, like, 50 feet from the border.


The EU have also just basically kicked the doors open and have loudly announced they're organising a welcoming party for the Ukrainians, so, uh, good going there, Vladimir.
I'm always cautious to take Ukranian proclamations with a pinch of salt, on the basis that they're generally what I want to hear and that makes me credulous, but that's entertaining if true.

There's no way the EU will let Ukraine in any time this decade though. They are so far away on so many economic, corruption, democratic, and legal metrics for EU accession that not even a very creative interpretation of very liberally bent rules would allow them access. Even with all the sympathy in the world, there's no legal route that could let them in, especially while simultaneously denying Montenegro, Albania, Macedonia, and Serbia, which are all far closer (and have been in the queue since 2008!). Plus, it requires every EU country to vote to accept them, and there'll be a few that are too worried about the backsliding on rights and democracy of the likes of Poland and Hungary to be waving in another Eastern European country. Not to mention that the EU has a mutual defence clause and there's bound to be a few that don't fancy having a war with Russia (Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia for a start!).

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Re: If Russia invades Ukraine (more)...

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Collateral damage reaches west London..

Jun 2003, R Abramovich becomes owner of the companies that control Chelsea FC  :?
12 Feb 2022 Chelsea become FIFA World club champions :)
24 Feb 2022 Russia invades Ukraine :o
10 Mar 2022 Abramovitch sanctioned by UK, due to links with VP.
RA unable to sell club & gain personally from sale. :shock:
Apr 2022 Chelsea ..not as we know it. :(

Funny ol' game.
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Re: If Russia invades Ukraine (more)...

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cashead wrote:The NACP, Ukraine's anti-corruption watchdog has thanked the Russian Minister of Defence, Sergei Shoygu for his corruption. According to them, they've found that the protective barriers on the Russian T-72 and T-80 tanks are made from cardboard egg trays, and the Russian bullet-proof vests that they've found in captured APCs are made of cardboard.

While a grain of salt is needed, it's also entirely plausible under Shoygu's command, when he's been busy with opening up the military to influence from various lobby groups and grifters - something which his predecessor, Anatoly Serdyukov, was deposed for fighting and reducing.

Russia has also lost nine colonels and generals in the two weeks since this war has started, and it's safe to assume a proportional number of NCOs are being killed each week as well.

It would explain why they still haven't taken Kharkiv, despite it being, like, 50 feet from the border.


The EU have also just basically kicked the doors open and have loudly announced they're organising a welcoming party for the Ukrainians, so, uh, good going there, Vladimir.
The Russian NCO cadre is poor. It puts a lot more onto officers. And conscript armies are a different beast to a professional one.
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Re: If Russia invades Ukraine (more)...

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Zhivago wrote:Russians using Chechen forces as barrier troops now to prevent desertion
With volunteers from the Central African Republic and Asia on the way to help Russia fight the nationalists. It’s almost farcical
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Puja
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Re: If Russia invades Ukraine (more)...

Post by Puja »

cashead wrote:
Puja wrote:
cashead wrote:The NACP, Ukraine's anti-corruption watchdog has thanked the Russian Minister of Defence, Sergei Shoygu for his corruption. According to them, they've found that the protective barriers on the Russian T-72 and T-80 tanks are made from cardboard egg trays, and the Russian bullet-proof vests that they've found in captured APCs are made of cardboard.

While a grain of salt is needed, it's also entirely plausible under Shoygu's command, when he's been busy with opening up the military to influence from various lobby groups and grifters - something which his predecessor, Anatoly Serdyukov, was deposed for fighting and reducing.

Russia has also lost nine colonels and generals in the two weeks since this war has started, and it's safe to assume a proportional number of NCOs are being killed each week as well.

It would explain why they still haven't taken Kharkiv, despite it being, like, 50 feet from the border.


The EU have also just basically kicked the doors open and have loudly announced they're organising a welcoming party for the Ukrainians, so, uh, good going there, Vladimir.
I'm always cautious to take Ukranian proclamations with a pinch of salt, on the basis that they're generally what I want to hear and that makes me credulous, but that's entertaining if true.

There's no way the EU will let Ukraine in any time this decade though. They are so far away on so many economic, corruption, democratic, and legal metrics for EU accession that not even a very creative interpretation of very liberally bent rules would allow them access. Even with all the sympathy in the world, there's no legal route that could let them in, especially while simultaneously denying Montenegro, Albania, Macedonia, and Serbia, which are all far closer (and have been in the queue since 2008!). Plus, it requires every EU country to vote to accept them, and there'll be a few that are too worried about the backsliding on rights and democracy of the likes of Poland and Hungary to be waving in another Eastern European country. Not to mention that the EU has a mutual defence clause and there's bound to be a few that don't fancy having a war with Russia (Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia for a start!).

Puja
Ukraine have been given candidate status, and while full membership is still several years away, it looks like step one has been accelerated - probably due to some pressing matters going on within their borders.
I think candidate status is just, "has applied, hasn't been immediately rejected."

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Re: If Russia invades Ukraine (more)...

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cashead wrote:
Puja wrote:
cashead wrote:The NACP, Ukraine's anti-corruption watchdog has thanked the Russian Minister of Defence, Sergei Shoygu for his corruption. According to them, they've found that the protective barriers on the Russian T-72 and T-80 tanks are made from cardboard egg trays, and the Russian bullet-proof vests that they've found in captured APCs are made of cardboard.

While a grain of salt is needed, it's also entirely plausible under Shoygu's command, when he's been busy with opening up the military to influence from various lobby groups and grifters - something which his predecessor, Anatoly Serdyukov, was deposed for fighting and reducing.

Russia has also lost nine colonels and generals in the two weeks since this war has started, and it's safe to assume a proportional number of NCOs are being killed each week as well.

It would explain why they still haven't taken Kharkiv, despite it being, like, 50 feet from the border.


The EU have also just basically kicked the doors open and have loudly announced they're organising a welcoming party for the Ukrainians, so, uh, good going there, Vladimir.
I'm always cautious to take Ukranian proclamations with a pinch of salt, on the basis that they're generally what I want to hear and that makes me credulous, but that's entertaining if true.

There's no way the EU will let Ukraine in any time this decade though. They are so far away on so many economic, corruption, democratic, and legal metrics for EU accession that not even a very creative interpretation of very liberally bent rules would allow them access. Even with all the sympathy in the world, there's no legal route that could let them in, especially while simultaneously denying Montenegro, Albania, Macedonia, and Serbia, which are all far closer (and have been in the queue since 2008!). Plus, it requires every EU country to vote to accept them, and there'll be a few that are too worried about the backsliding on rights and democracy of the likes of Poland and Hungary to be waving in another Eastern European country. Not to mention that the EU has a mutual defence clause and there's bound to be a few that don't fancy having a war with Russia (Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia for a start!).

Puja
Ukraine have been given candidate status, and while full membership is still several years away, it looks like step one has been accelerated - probably due to some pressing matters going on within their borders.

Sandydragon wrote:The Russian NCO cadre is poor. It puts a lot more onto officers. And conscript armies are a different beast to a professional one.
One of the biggest problems for the Germans after the initial stages of Operation Barbarossa was that hundreds of their NCOs were getting killed each week, with no way of replacing them with equally experienced men. Unless Putin was stashing away all of his good officers in Siberia, the organisational efficiency of their invasion force has little to no hope of rebounding.
Their prospects might improve with the weather but there are some serious weaknesses being exposed in Russian leadership at junior levels and also in their staff work. Modern warfare demands good logistics and it just ain’t happening.
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Re: If Russia invades Ukraine (more)...

Post by Galfon »

NLAW anti-tank weapon (made in Belfast), Turkish drone technology in form of the relatively cheap but proven Bayraktar TB2
https://www.ft.com/content/7529a862-792 ... f50747d1f6
and possibly soon the British portable SAM 'Starstreak'...
New weapons of war that are bound to hurt Russ. (surprised to see the Turk. drone not on the Russ. side, but appears to be a commercial thing).
It's a race, as always.
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Re: If Russia invades Ukraine (more)...

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cashead wrote:Why would the Turks side with the Russians? They just had a proxy war with them, through the Azerbaijanis and the Armenians.
and forgot, Turkey is a member of NATO..; Erdogan appears to plough his own furrow in many respects, and like Russ. has designs of broader influence in his region harking back to the Ottoman days.Also keen to progress EU status. They co-operated over the post ISIS plays in N.Iraq & Syria.He's spinning alot of plates.

chink of light with negs., maybe..
https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-war- ... s-12564880
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Re: If Russia invades Ukraine (more)...

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Galfon wrote:
cashead wrote:Why would the Turks side with the Russians? They just had a proxy war with them, through the Azerbaijanis and the Armenians.
and forgot, Turkey is a member of NATO..; Erdogan appears to plough his own furrow in many respects, and like Russ. has designs of broader influence in his region harking back to the Ottoman days.Also keen to progress EU status. They co-operated over the post ISIS plays in N.Iraq & Syria.He's spinning alot of plates.
Erdogan is playing a game which risks upsetting everyone. He annoyed a lot of his Nato allies over Syria and the whole coup business, then by buying weapons from Russia. Now he risks annoying Russia some more by supporting Ukraine. He is absolutely trying to improve Turkeys strategic influence but might find himself with no friends left.
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Re: If Russia invades Ukraine (more)...

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Galfon wrote:NLAW anti-tank weapon (made in Belfast), Turkish drone technology in form of the relatively cheap but proven Bayraktar TB2
https://www.ft.com/content/7529a862-792 ... f50747d1f6
and possibly soon the British portable SAM 'Starstreak'...
New weapons of war that are bound to hurt Russ. (surprised to see the Turk. drone not on the Russ. side, but appears to be a commercial thing).
It's a race, as always.
Turkey have already invoked a treaty barring the Dardanelles (and thus the whole Black Sea and access to Crimea and south Ukraine) to Russian warships, citing them as belligerents who are not allowed to pass. They've been on Ukraine's side from the beginning.

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Re: If Russia invades Ukraine (more)...

Post by Son of Mathonwy »

It's slightly depressing to hear the Zelenskiy moving a little towards agreeing not to join NATO, if perhaps understandable in the circumstances. I think his exact wording is more ambiguous than the reporting suggests, though.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/ ... ening-grip


And I'd love to think that Johnson's words on the matter were part of an internationally agreed strategy to find a diplomatic solution, rather than some off-the-cuff shit which undermines Ukraine. I wonder which it is?

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/vi ... soon-video
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Re: If Russia invades Ukraine (more)...

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Son of Mathonwy wrote:It's slightly depressing to hear the Zelenskiy moving a little towards agreeing not to join NATO, if perhaps understandable in the circumstances. I think his exact wording is more ambiguous than the reporting suggests, though.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/ ... ening-grip


And I'd love to think that Johnson's words on the matter were part of an internationally agreed strategy to find a diplomatic solution, rather than some off-the-cuff shit which undermines Ukraine. I wonder which it is?

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/vi ... soon-video
Ignoring Boris still being allowed to speak in public, I've read articles saying that any peace process has to give Putin something he can spin as a victory and ruling out joining NATO is the thing that Ukraine can most easily give up. I'd imagine this ends with Russia getting Ukraine to cede Crimea and Donbas and agree not to join NATO in return for territorial guarantees and freedom to pursue joining the EU.

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Re: If Russia invades Ukraine (more)...

Post by Zhivago »

Puja wrote:
Son of Mathonwy wrote:It's slightly depressing to hear the Zelenskiy moving a little towards agreeing not to join NATO, if perhaps understandable in the circumstances. I think his exact wording is more ambiguous than the reporting suggests, though.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/ ... ening-grip


And I'd love to think that Johnson's words on the matter were part of an internationally agreed strategy to find a diplomatic solution, rather than some off-the-cuff shit which undermines Ukraine. I wonder which it is?

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/vi ... soon-video
Ignoring Boris still being allowed to speak in public, I've read articles saying that any peace process has to give Putin something he can spin as a victory and ruling out joining NATO is the thing that Ukraine can most easily give up. I'd imagine this ends with Russia getting Ukraine to cede Crimea and Donbas and agree not to join NATO in return for territorial guarantees and freedom to pursue joining the EU.

Puja
Hopefully Ukraine will negotiate some kind of settlement for Crimea, maybe some kind of joint governance set up.

Все буде Україна!
Смерть ворогам!!

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Re: If Russia invades Ukraine (more)...

Post by Banquo »

Zhivago wrote:
Puja wrote:
Son of Mathonwy wrote:It's slightly depressing to hear the Zelenskiy moving a little towards agreeing not to join NATO, if perhaps understandable in the circumstances. I think his exact wording is more ambiguous than the reporting suggests, though.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/ ... ening-grip


And I'd love to think that Johnson's words on the matter were part of an internationally agreed strategy to find a diplomatic solution, rather than some off-the-cuff shit which undermines Ukraine. I wonder which it is?

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/vi ... soon-video
Ignoring Boris still being allowed to speak in public, I've read articles saying that any peace process has to give Putin something he can spin as a victory and ruling out joining NATO is the thing that Ukraine can most easily give up. I'd imagine this ends with Russia getting Ukraine to cede Crimea and Donbas and agree not to join NATO in return for territorial guarantees and freedom to pursue joining the EU.

Puja
Hopefully Ukraine will negotiate some kind of settlement for Crimea, maybe some kind of joint governance set up.
Yeah...or free elections.
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Re: If Russia invades Ukraine (more)...

Post by Galfon »

Ukr not member of NATO and Neutral status could be seen as success for VP at home, with some sort of fudge for Crimea & Donbass that looks like further consolidation.
Unfortunately many of his country's bridges built with the West over the years are now ash.
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The final sentence. Fucking hell.
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Re: If Russia invades Ukraine (more)...

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Jesus fuck. Saying the quiet bit loudly.

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Re: If Russia invades Ukraine (more)...

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cashead wrote:Chinese state-affiliated media reporting on Russian war crimes
Good point that - well spotted.

Elsewhere:

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That is essentially the Republican Party platform in the USA. No wonder they are reluctant to criticise him.
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Re: If Russia invades Ukraine (more)...

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cashead wrote:

Chinese state-affiliated media reporting on Russian war crimes
That tweet appears to have gone. What did it say?
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Re: If Russia invades Ukraine (more)...

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Stom wrote:
cashead wrote:

Chinese state-affiliated media reporting on Russian war crimes
That tweet appears to have gone. What did it say?
Was reporting on shooting civilians lining up for food aid
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Re: If Russia invades Ukraine (more)...

Post by Zhivago »

Russians forcibly deporting Ukrainians in Mariupol to Russia and seizing their Ukrainian documents and giving them Russian documentation.

This is a war crime. A violation of Article 49 of the 4th Geneva Convention, which states clearly:
Individual or mass forcible transfers, as well as deportations of protected persons from occupied territory to the territory of the Occupying Power or to that of any other country, occupied or not, are prohibited, regardless of their motive.
And under the Rome Statute, it is listed as a 'crime against humanity' in Article 7.

When all the actions of the Russians are considered in their totality, along with their propaganda justifying them, it might well become clear that a genocide of the Ukrainian people is taking place.

Все буде Україна!
Смерть ворогам!!

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Re: If Russia invades Ukraine (more)...

Post by Son of Mathonwy »

Zhivago wrote:Russians forcibly deporting Ukrainians in Mariupol to Russia and seizing their Ukrainian documents and giving them Russian documentation. This is a war crime. A violation of Article 49 of the 4th Geneva Convention, which states clearly:
Individual or mass forcible transfers, as well as deportations of protected persons from occupied territory to the territory of the Occupying Power or to that of any other country, occupied or not, are prohibited, regardless of their motive.
Ethnic cleansing. Or genocide, if they send them somewhere cold enough.
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Re: If Russia invades Ukraine (more)...

Post by Zhivago »

Read in Ukrainian news that Johnson has asked his secret services whether he could visit Kyiv safely for a face to face meeting with Zelensky. Would be great if so, although I'm sure his motivation would be related to his adoration and desire to imitate his hero Churchill.

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