If Russia invades Ukraine (more)...

[paddy no 11]

Irpin mostly taken back

Russia are fucked on the ground

Basically air strikes is all they have, they can starve cities like mariupol but will hold onto nothing. Stalemate and settle this or ratchet up from putin?

[Zhivago]

[Stom]

We’ve had and seen countless of these examples. We put up an average of 74 Ukrainians a night at my daughters school for a week, and the kids were seriously shell shocked. Sad to see.

[Sandydragon]

Irpin mostly taken back

Russia are fucked on the ground

Basically air strikes is all they have, they can starve cities like mariupol but will hold onto nothing. Stalemate and settle this or ratchet up from putin?

Putin can't afford stalemate, thats the same as losing. If he feels internal pressure growing (rumours of coup attempts and so on may have some foundation) then he might look to up the ante. Theres not a lot left that he can use conventionally, except to double down on the firepower strategy (which is counter productive in many ways)

[Sandydragon]

I'm wondering how much the Russians have in terms of munitions, TBH. They're resorting to using missiles designed for sea targets on buildings, and are dusting off old prototypes and shit.

Last I heard, the Russian demands were that the Russian language be acknowledged as an official language, and some street to be renamed to recognise the USSR. That could just be a desperate negotiator acting on their own volition though. Tankies are also trying to justify the bombing of civilian targets by claiming that malls and shit had artillery nearby - because, you know, a hostile invading force should get to whine about how the country they're invading defends itself, right?

Zelenskyy should, in this case, demand that half the streets in Russia be renamed Putin Sucks A Fuck Boulevard and Moscow to be renamed Loser Town.

The Soviet Union has old WWII equipment in deep storage - just in case. Probably a signifiant amount of munitions reserves, but maybe not fuel or modern weaponry.

[Puja]

I'm wondering how much the Russians have in terms of munitions, TBH. They're resorting to using missiles designed for sea targets on buildings, and are dusting off old prototypes and shit.

Last I heard, the Russian demands were that the Russian language be acknowledged as an official language, and some street to be renamed to recognise the USSR. That could just be a desperate negotiator acting on their own volition though. Tankies are also trying to justify the bombing of civilian targets by claiming that malls and shit had artillery nearby - because, you know, a hostile invading force should get to whine about how the country they're invading defends itself, right?

Zelenskyy should, in this case, demand that half the streets in Russia be renamed Putin Sucks A Fuck Boulevard and Moscow to be renamed Loser Town.

The Soviet Union has old WWII equipment in deep storage - just in case. Probably a signifiant amount of munitions reserves, but maybe not fuel or modern weaponry.

That'd just be cannon fodder to a fleet attacking force armed with modern rockets and weaponry. The only way that could pose a threat to a force like Ukraine's is if the Javelin missiles went straight through without exploding because they were designed to hit something more solid.

Puja

[Which Tyler]

Russian Defence Minister and corrupt dickbag Sergei Shoigu had a "heart attack."

Is that the one that got a public bollocking from Putin for having mild reservations about the invasion?

ETA: Looks like it

[Sandydragon]

I'm wondering how much the Russians have in terms of munitions, TBH. They're resorting to using missiles designed for sea targets on buildings, and are dusting off old prototypes and shit.

Last I heard, the Russian demands were that the Russian language be acknowledged as an official language, and some street to be renamed to recognise the USSR. That could just be a desperate negotiator acting on their own volition though. Tankies are also trying to justify the bombing of civilian targets by claiming that malls and shit had artillery nearby - because, you know, a hostile invading force should get to whine about how the country they're invading defends itself, right?

Zelenskyy should, in this case, demand that half the streets in Russia be renamed Putin Sucks A Fuck Boulevard and Moscow to be renamed Loser Town.

The Soviet Union has old WWII equipment in deep storage - just in case. Probably a signifiant amount of munitions reserves, but maybe not fuel or modern weaponry.

That'd just be cannon fodder to a fleet attacking force armed with modern rockets and weaponry. The only way that could pose a threat to a force like Ukraine's is if the Javelin missiles went straight through without exploding because they were designed to hit something more solid.

Puja

Totally. If we keep supplying modern weapons to the Ukrainians then it’s a no brainer. But ask yourself how much the Russian high command cares about using its troops as canon fodder?

But it looks like Russian is trying to redefine its objectives during this special military operation. No longer removing Nazis from the whole of the Ukraine but just securing the breakaway republics and reducing Ukraines ability to wage war.

I als saw something yesterday that it was the military that persuaded Putin that the invasion was a good idea. It looks like the Russian dictator is distancing himself from the fallout of this.

Hopefully positive news rather than continued escalation. The question will be whether the Russian army is capable of achieving the more limited objectives it now appears to have set itself. And will international support continue of Ukraine pushes the rebel provinces back?

[Mellsblue]

https://www.economist.com/europe/2022/0 ... 363b5ae5ed

[Galfon]

But it looks like Russian is trying to redefine its objectives during this special military operation. No longer removing Nazis from the whole of the Ukraine but just securing the breakaway republics and reducing Ukraines ability to wage war.
..The question will be whether the Russian army is capable of achieving the more limited objectives it now appears to have set itself. And will international support continue of Ukraine pushes the rebel provinces back?

Partition of Ukr à la GDR, with east/south areas bagged off, with VZ accepting neutrality could be sold as an achievement by force for Russ; just can't see that happening given the groundswell of international condemnation.

[Sandydragon]

But it looks like Russian is trying to redefine its objectives during this special military operation. No longer removing Nazis from the whole of the Ukraine but just securing the breakaway republics and reducing Ukraines ability to wage war.
..The question will be whether the Russian army is capable of achieving the more limited objectives it now appears to have set itself. And will international support continue of Ukraine pushes the rebel provinces back?

Partition of Ukr à la GDR, with east/south areas bagged off, with VZ accepting neutrality could be sold as an achievement by force for Russ; just can't see that happening given the groundswell of international condemnation.

Depends I suppose if the Ukrainians are happy with that. They are the ones watching their cities being turned into rubble so if they decide its not worth trying to get those separatist areas back then I don't think anyone would blame them.

[Puja]

But it looks like Russian is trying to redefine its objectives during this special military operation. No longer removing Nazis from the whole of the Ukraine but just securing the breakaway republics and reducing Ukraines ability to wage war.
..The question will be whether the Russian army is capable of achieving the more limited objectives it now appears to have set itself. And will international support continue of Ukraine pushes the rebel provinces back?

Partition of Ukr à la GDR, with east/south areas bagged off, with VZ accepting neutrality could be sold as an achievement by force for Russ; just can't see that happening given the groundswell of international condemnation.

Depends I suppose if the Ukrainians are happy with that. They are the ones watching their cities being turned into rubble so if they decide its not worth trying to get those separatist areas back then I don't think anyone would blame them.

Depends where the partition happens. If it's just Crimea, Lukhansk and Donetsk, I think most Ukranians would be willing to pay that price as you said. I don't know that's what Putin's aiming for with this proposed plan - I think he'd want a partition across half the country.

Puja

[Sandydragon]

Don’t see why the Ukrainians should accept neutrality, when they’ve got an actively hostile neighbour. Why should they be obligated to entertain the whims of a cunt like Putin? They should be demanding full disarmament for the Russians too, and for the words "loser-ass fuck bitch, Slava Ukraini" to be permanently carved onto his forehead, in Russian, Ukrainian, English and all Romantic languages with a rusty nail, and have it broadcast live on RT.

Shit, give it a month, and Russia will not be in any state to make any demands at this rate. Crimea fucked them long term, and the full beans invasion is Putin stubbornly digging himself into a hole deep enough to reach the core of the planet.

Accepting neutrality, which effectively means a significant degradation in military power without Nato equipment and training would leave Ukraine vulnerable to Putins next fantasy. Id give it 5 years max before Putin decided that he needed to denazify the Ukraine again.

[Which Tyler]

Munitions depot in Belgorod, Russia - just over the border from Kharkiv


According to a friend wh can speak Russian - state media is claiming it was a Ukrainian shell, 4 Russian soldiers injured

[Galfon]

..Russia, China and its sympathizers are moving towards a "multipolar, just, democratic world order". sayeth Lavrov..,with a straight face too. True professional.

[kk67]

Mea culpa.
Cannot deny I got this one totally wrong. Made me laugh to see that France has sacked it's senior General for also getting it totally wrong.

Funnily enough, in regard to Hunter Biden and the realpolitik of energy and war I had to dig out this old story.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... up-attempt

[kk67]

It's not a justification for my getting it wrong, but it is a matter of historical record. The Saffers gave him 4 years.


Apologies to Sandy and all.

[Stom]

Especially when you likely carried out the attacks on yourself…

[Mellsblue]

Fu.Kin.Hell.

[paddy no 11]

Some of the reports of rape and mass murder of male population by exiting Russian troops are horrific. Pure barbarism

I hope Ukraine survives this and putin and lavrov die screaming

[Zhivago]

Mea culpa.
Cannot deny I got this one totally wrong.

Did you escape the rabbit hole yet?

[Banquo]

Yay...Orban re-elected

[Which Tyler]

Well fuck.

[Puja]

Well fuck.

Jesus fuck. That kind of propaganda doesn't suggest that Russia is even slightly considering looking at a negotiated peace. Even if we assume that Putin himself doesn't believe that (which is not a given), that is not rhetoric which allows any room for a graceful climbdown/declaring that you've won and have achieved what you wanted all along. That's doubling down on the only option being the complete annexation of the country.

It's also the kind of propaganda that could justify nuking the country in a "better dead than Nazi" fit of pique.

Puja

[paddy no 11]

Horrific shit

I hope putin is dead by the time I hit submit