GTFO Foster, All Blacks vs Ireland III is an Ireland supporter zone

[J Dory]

Predictions? What about an old fashioned RR comp? ABs v Ireland, Wales v SA, Eng. v Aus., Arg v Scots. Pick the winner by how much. Correct winner and closest differential 2 points, correct winner 1 point. I'll start:
JD:
Abs v Ireland: NZ by 17
Wales v SA: SA by 3
Eng v Aus: Aus by 5
Arg v Scot: Scot by 11

[Puja]

I'll bite, although I am traditionally terrible at predictions:

NZ v Ireland: Ire by 7
Wales v SA: SA by 12
Eng v Aus: Aus by 2, but it'll've been by 9 until we score an injury-time try to make it look good
Arg v Scot: Scot by 16

All Blacks squad to play and hopefully lose, getting rid of that useless cunt in the coaching box.

You not concerned about booting the coach this close to the RWC or do you just have inherent faith that, with anyone else, you'll end up best in the world again?

Puja

[J Dory]

Let's keep it in a single post:
JD:
Abs v Ireland: NZ by 17
Wales v SA: SA by 3
Eng v Aus: Aus by 5
Arg v Scot: Scot by 11

Puja:
NZ v Ireland: Ire by 7
Wales v SA: SA by 12
Eng v Aus: Aus by 2, but it'll've been by 9 until we score an injury-time try to make it look good
Arg v Scot: Scot by 16

[zer0]

I've only seen the tests in NZL and AUS, so am guessing for half of them.

NZL vs IRE: IRE by ~10. Relying on Sexton to die, and the opposition to panic, isn't a strategy for sustained success.
SAF vs WAL: SAF by >14. Big pack goes brrr.
AUS vs ENG: ENG by ~5. Because fuck you 'Straya. If we're going down you're coming with us.
ARG vs SCO: SCO by ~5. Because why not.

[zer0]

You not concerned about booting the coach this close to the RWC or do you just have inherent faith that, with anyone else, you'll end up best in the world again?

The last two RWC's finals have featured under-performing teams who changed coaches ~18 months out from the tournament. Just like 2019, I believe the AB's have the players to win the title, just not the coaches.

[zer0]

Not even a real contest tbh. There's a well-organised professional team in green and a random collection of club players rounded up 10 mins before kick off in black. Surely NZR aren't going to sit around and wait for the Boks to sodomise the AB's before making the sensible choice.

[Which Tyler]

You need to be more than 21 points up before you start feeling cocky against NZ (or France). At least until the last 10 minutes.

Both of those teams are capable of putting 15 minutes of performance in where there's basically nothing you can do about it; and are capable of doing that regardless of how the other 65 minutes work out.

[Which Tyler]

Now I'm confident!

[zer0]

NZL vs IRE: IRE by ~10.

[Spy]

It’s time for the metaphorical bottle of whisky and revolver to come out of Foster’s desk drawer. Impossible to survive a home series loss like this on top of a mediocre previous record.

[Spy]

Congrats to Ireland. Well deserved series win.

I had previously assumed the above sentence would be typed by my descendants, from a colony on the moon. Thanks Foster.

[Spy]

More seriously, tremendous effort, well deserved.

Very few teams win a series in NZ. It’s hard. Ireland was the better team.

[zer0]

NZL vs IRE: IRE by ~10.
AUS vs ENG: ENG by ~5.

[Puja]

I've only seen the tests in NZL and AUS, so am guessing for half of them.

NZL vs IRE: IRE by ~10. Relying on Sexton to die, and the opposition to panic, isn't a strategy for sustained success.
SAF vs WAL: SAF by >14. Big pack goes brrr.
AUS vs ENG: ENG by ~5. Because fuck you 'Straya. If we're going down you're coming with us.
ARG vs SCO: SCO by ~5. Because why not.

Three out of four by the precise scoreline (if we're counting SAF vs WAL as >=). Impressive.

Puja

[paddy no 11]

Please Don't give schmidt the job

[Cameo]

I've only seen the tests in NZL and AUS, so am guessing for half of them.

NZL vs IRE: IRE by ~10. Relying on Sexton to die, and the opposition to panic, isn't a strategy for sustained success.
SAF vs WAL: SAF by >14. Big pack goes brrr.
AUS vs ENG: ENG by ~5. Because fuck you 'Straya. If we're going down you're coming with us.
ARG vs SCO: SCO by ~5. Because why not.

Three out of four by the precise scoreline (if we're counting SAF vs WAL as >=). Impressive.

Puja

4/4 until the final play of the day too!

[Cameo]

NZ need a fresh voice and a new gameplan/set of plays. They look like they haven't evolved and are relying on individual magic. I think the players are there* for them to be much better but at the very top, you need a way of playing and it needs to keep updating.

There are a few positions where they need to move on (2, 7, and 10 for me) but even there I don't think the incumbents have become bad players, just there are better younger players who will also bring freshness to the team - there'll still be loads of experience there.

[zer0]

There undoubtedly needs to be a shake up in selection (though this may not come until there's a change in HC). In the front row it's absolutely time to finally drop the props who just waddle between set pieces - and worse yet, can't even guarantee dominance there. Let the younger, more dynamic, options get stuck in. Taylor also need to finally be taken out back behind the shed. His test form basically died in 2019 and he's been hobbling along on life support ever since. Have Oddjob Aumua backup Samsonite Taukei'aho, because at least he'll cannonball himself into the opposition (just as Taukei'aho will do as well).

For the loosies, I'd look at bringing Grace into blindside and Sotutu at the back of the scrum. Together with the two locks that gives you four strong lineout targets as well as physicality around the park, on both sides of the ball (where Sotutu looks to have significantly improved this season). Sotutu is hardly a slouch off the back of the scrum, and can even switch up with Savea at times for different carrying options. Speaking of, only one of Savea, Papalii, or Cane can be on the field at a time. Pooper didn't work for Australia and it wont work here. I think there's still huge value in bringing Savea off the bench - similar to how Samu is used by the Wallabies - but he could start too.

So, altogether, something like:

1. de Groot
2. Taukei'aho
3. Newell
4. Retallick
5. Whitelock
6. Grace
7. Savea/Papalii
8. Sotutu

16. Aumua/Coles (maybe)
17. Hodgman/Norris
18. Williams
19. S.Barrett/Vaa'i/Bird (I hear he was plying quite well in France before returning)
20. Papalii/Savea/Ioane

For the backs, get some big bastards in there. Clarke back on the wing. Probably Rieko on the other, though Reece's footwork could work in a more coherent, or simply existent, attacking structure. If you really have to persevere with B.Barret at first-five then bring Perofeta into fullback and see if they can replicate their dynamic from the Blues. If you keep him there with someone like Jordie at fullback then you risk basically go without a 10 for huge stretches of a match. Otherwise the Crusaders more traditional 10/15 axis of Mo'unga/Jordan would be the alternative. There's too many potential midfield options and considerations to try decipher that Gordian knot.

[Cameo]

I don't see an issue with Savea and Papalii (or Cane). Saves isn't quite an orthodox 8 but I think he now plays more like one than a 7.

In the second row, it'll be a good chance for someone else to establish themselves, but S Barrett and Va'i are well ahead of options like Dickson for me.

For me, the backs should be:

9. Smith
10. Mo'unga (I think his lack of international form is overstated - he has more spark than BB now for me and is also a bit easier to build a team around)
11. Reece
12. Havi'ili (not nailed on but I think he has a good combo of skills, power and footwork and works well with RM)
13. Reiko
14. Someone bigger - maybe Clarke
15. Jordan (you just want him as involved as possible)

21. I'm not bothered between Christie and FF. Both offer something. Fakatawa was great as an impact sub in Super Rugby so I'd be tempted to give him some more chances.
22. B. Barrett
23. J. Barrett
(I think two Barretts on the bench gives you good cover and options in terms of mixing it up - e.g. Jordie at 12 or 15 for more power, BB at 10 or 15 as gaps open up)

Starting backline possible a bit short on size, but with a decent (and quicker) gameplan, I think there is enough there.

[J Dory]

Finally got to watch the match, all be it with French commentary. I didn't think the ABs were that bad, with a few more calls from the ref, a few better bounces, a few missed passes sticking, that game could have gone the other way. It was close, and the ABs had long periods of possession.

Having said that, well done Ireland, some wonderful tries off the back of beautiful running rugby, resolute defense, smart tactical play, deserved winners of the series.

But I'm not buying into the doom and gloom, I think we need tweaks rather than a reset. Maybe that means a change of coach, but maybe not too.

Lastly, Sexton, wtf is it with him and post try shitty play. This game, accidentally on purpose puts a knee into the ribs of Jordan after he got burned. Back in 2019 I think it was, smacking Barrett around the head after a high tackle that didn't save the try. He's like a skinny version of Dane Coles. Those kind of cheap shots need to be stamped out.

[Cameo]

Finally got to watch the match, all be it with French commentary. I didn't think the ABs were that bad, with a few more calls from the ref, a few better bounces, a few missed passes sticking, that game could have gone the other way. It was close, and the ABs had long periods of possession.

Having said that, well done Ireland, some wonderful tries off the back of beautiful running rugby, resolute defense, smart tactical play, deserved winners of the series.

But I'm not buying into the doom and gloom, I think we need tweaks rather than a reset. Maybe that means a change of coach, but maybe not too.

Lastly, Sexton, wtf is it with him and post try shitty play. This game, accidentally on purpose puts a knee into the ribs of Jordan after he got burned. Back in 2019 I think it was, smacking Barrett around the head after a high tackle that didn't save the try. He's like a skinny version of Dane Coles. Those kind of cheap shots need to be stamped out.

I think the issue is that Ireland's good play seems to come from good team play and patterns. New Zealand's looks like it comes from good individual moments.

Agree on cheap shots - I just think they are pathetic.

[Which Tyler]

The clampdown on retaliation is as necessary as ever - because the alternative is escalation, and all-in fights from 28 players.

2 wrongs have never, ever, made a right; and problem with going soft on perpetrators has never been to sanction revenge.

[Which Tyler]

A] Of course not, you're not even obligated to defend a position you do hold

B] If you never held the position "The clampdown on retaliation is particularly misguided..." then I'm confused as to why you used those words.