The confidence that they have over evincing those opinions is very promising. Suggests that they think Putin's control is weakened enough that they don't expect consequences. They're either right and a coup is imminent, or there's about to be a fairly hefty crackdown shortly.Which Tyler wrote:Some Russians though, like living dangerously - let's hope they don't pass any high-rise building in the next week
https://www.thedailybeast.com/moscow-of ... r?ref=home
Indeed - they've already thrown a tantrum and targetted a whole bunch of civilian power stations. Bunch of cunts.Galfon wrote:Izyum appears to have been a rout - can't see Kherson and thence Crimea not eventually following now, then all about the Donbas (contd..). Rus.& losing not good bed-fellows.
I don't know we want to be counting our chickens just yet. Kharkiv Oblast has been a phenomenal success, but a large part of that was the the impressive op-int of selling that their counter-attack was going to be the grind through Kherson, talking up pushing through to Crimea, softening up with HIMARS and partisan bombing, to lure a significant amount of Russian forces to the south. They didn't demolish a full Russian defensive line in Kharkiv, but one that they had deliberately weakened.Galfon wrote:Izyum appears to have been a rout - can't see Kherson and thence Crimea not eventually following now, then all about the Donbas (contd..). Rus.& losing not good bed-fellows.
Kupyansk/E Kharkiv:
Per the UA government, 2850 RU troops and 590 peices of equipment were eliminated in this offensive over the past week.
The RU losses are estimated to be as follows: 86 tanks and 158 armoured combat vehicles, 106 artillery systems, 159 vehicles, 6 aircraft, and 7 helicopters and 33 other equipment, for a total of $675 million USD. Additionally, UA is confirmed to have seized some 129 pieces of equipment, worth more then $43 million USD.
Otherwise, the hard work of demining villages and dealing with the thankful, though abused civilian population looms ahead. UA is working to ensure mail and pension delivery begin operating immediately in the liberated territories.
Izyum/Lyman:
UA troops to the N of Slovyansk have apparently crossed the Siversky donets river at Svyatohirsk, and captured the town. This will place pressure on any remaining RU holdouts and evac routes E of Izyum.
UA troops continue to aggress onto Lyman, with RU forces apparently intending to defend the urban area, and heavy shelling ongoing. UA has apparently successfully crossed the Siversky donets closer to Yampil as well, opening another axis of attack.
There are isolated reports and videos of UA SOF operating near Kreminna across the river, just NW of Severodonetsk. This is the furthest into RU lines we have evidence of UA operating, with a unit ambushing an RU vehicle in the treeline.
Bakhmut:
Fighting continues in Soledar, with RU forces having been pushed back generally to the SE side of the town over the last week, and occupying a small industrial area.
Kherson:
UA continues to advance towards Kherson from the NW direction, fighting is fierce across the bridgehead on the Inhulets, and the NE front remains apparently stagnant over the past 24 hours. RU continues to apparently enjoy more air control, in the form of higher airstrike missions compared to the UA's reduction in them.
Isolated reports of Ru troops surrendering in the NW section of Kherson continue to come out.
Fighting continues SW of Davidy Brid near Sukhyi Stavok, where UA forces already having crossed the Inhulets river attempt to make gains towards the western of 2 major supply highways for RU forces NE of Kherson. This is the highest concentration of RU air power.
Hydraulic structures now - missiles struck the Karachunov reservoir dam reportedly, which has no military value, causing the river to break through the dam and overflow its banks. Residential buildings apparently just a few metres away from the river.Zhivago wrote:Indeed - they've already thrown a tantrum and targetted a whole bunch of civilian power stations. Bunch of cunts.Galfon wrote:..Rus.& losing not good bed-fellows.
A very clear war crime.Galfon wrote:Hydraulic structures now - missiles struck the Karachunov reservoir dam reportedly, which has no military value, causing the river to break through the dam and overflow its banks. Residential buildings apparently just a few metres away from the river.Zhivago wrote:Indeed - they've already thrown a tantrum and targetted a whole bunch of civilian power stations. Bunch of cunts.Galfon wrote:..Rus.& losing not good bed-fellows.
It is a war crime, but this is not strictly true. Aside from the attempt to terrorise the civilian population of Zelensky's home town, there was the additional military benefit of flooding the Inhulets river, which the UAF had forded.Galfon wrote:Hydraulic structures now - missiles struck the Karachunov reservoir dam reportedly, which has no military value, causing the river to break through the dam and overflow its banks. Residential buildings apparently just a few metres away from the river.Zhivago wrote:Indeed - they've already thrown a tantrum and targetted a whole bunch of civilian power stations. Bunch of cunts.Galfon wrote:..Rus.& losing not good bed-fellows.
It would almost certainly still be considered a war crime due to proportionality rules. But with so many other offences it’s hard to keep count on Russian legality any more.Zhivago wrote:It is a war crime, but this is not strictly true. Aside from the attempt to terrorise the civilian population of Zelensky's home town, there was the additional military benefit of flooding the Inhulets river, which the UAF had forded.Galfon wrote:Hydraulic structures now - missiles struck the Karachunov reservoir dam reportedly, which has no military value, causing the river to break through the dam and overflow its banks. Residential buildings apparently just a few metres away from the river.Zhivago wrote:
Indeed - they've already thrown a tantrum and targetted a whole bunch of civilian power stations. Bunch of cunts.
I think they still want to make more progress in Lugansk before they switch to the south, because they want to attack Donetsk from north and south. They need to take Lyman, Borova, and East Kupiansk. Followed by Svatove and Starobilsk.Sandydragon wrote:Let’s hope Ukraine can retake Kherson before the weather becomes totally shyte. The advances in the east of the country have been spectacular and it makes sense to consolidate before looking at any further advances. But now focusing on the Kherson area makes sense, especially if Russia wants to keep on feeding troops to Ukrainian forces to shoot up.
The only problem with that is that as they advance closer to the border they will encounter people whose loyalties are more Russian. Taking back the separatist regions is probably a bit too far this year. Personally I’d go for Kherson and push the Russians back to the Crimean peninsular.Zhivago wrote:I think they still want to make more progress in Lugansk before they switch to the south, because they want to attack Donetsk from north and south. They need to take Lyman, Borova, and East Kupiansk. Followed by Svatove and Starobilsk.Sandydragon wrote:Let’s hope Ukraine can retake Kherson before the weather becomes totally shyte. The advances in the east of the country have been spectacular and it makes sense to consolidate before looking at any further advances. But now focusing on the Kherson area makes sense, especially if Russia wants to keep on feeding troops to Ukrainian forces to shoot up.
I think only then will we see the offensive in Zaporozhzhie, around which time it will make sense to push hard in Kherson. Meanwhile Kherson should be liberated with fewest casualties as possible. There is no rush, as long as it is cut off using Himars.
Protecting the flanks will be important for Ukraine as at some point their offensive will stop, either because it runs out of steam or weather or both. Kherson is effectively under siege but that’s a Ukrainian city with Ukrainian citizens in there. The Ukraine don’t want a long urban battle but equally the idea of an over winter siege isn’t a great one either.Which Tyler wrote:I'm no military tactician, but from what I can tell on the maps, there's large expanses of Luhansk they can take with relatively little in the way of protective geography. Ukraine are already over the Oskil, then it's the Zherebets and the Aidar as the last big North-South rivers in the area, and the Siverskyi-Donets, which is where the Russians will be well dug in.
Unfortunately, that gives Ukrain a larger border, as they'll have to keep units back to keep an eye on the actual Russian border as well - I suspect Ukraine will push on to one of those North-South rivers (my bet's the Aidar - if they can get there before winter comes - that gives them a much better chances of battering Lyschyansk and Severodonetsk from 2 sides - from what I can tell of the maps, this also cuts Luhansk off from the last big rail line to Russia from the North).
Of course, it's still an absolutely huge swathe of land to secure, and may simply be too optimistic with their current resources (really don't want them to overextend)
Kherson is already looking after itself, essentially besieged already, it's just a matter of time until it falls with minimal losses to Ukraine - unless Russia can build a bridge across the Dnipro, and keep it hidden from HIMARS.
The rest seems like it's more having enough troops, and probes, to keep Russian troops busy where they are. They've launched a few attempts along the east of the border, but it's all pretty well fortified, and fairly static for now.
Of course, things may well change as Ukraine's new troops are being trained up, and returned to Ukraine - but for now, I suspect they'll mostly be used to rotate and give the previous troops a rest, and go again in the Spring.
The Russians are dug in everywhere else. The defence is still quite thin east of the Oskil. They may have to wait until next year, and certainly getting at least to the Dnipr is preferable before rasputitsa. Would be great to hit south to Crimea, but doing so opens up a flank with Donetsk, so if they can get a flank both north an south then it's even better. They need to liberate as much as possible before the 6 month pause from Oct-Feb.Sandydragon wrote:The only problem with that is that as they advance closer to the border they will encounter people whose loyalties are more Russian. Taking back the separatist regions is probably a bit too far this year. Personally I’d go for Kherson and push the Russians back to the Crimean peninsular.Zhivago wrote:I think they still want to make more progress in Lugansk before they switch to the south, because they want to attack Donetsk from north and south. They need to take Lyman, Borova, and East Kupiansk. Followed by Svatove and Starobilsk.Sandydragon wrote:Let’s hope Ukraine can retake Kherson before the weather becomes totally shyte. The advances in the east of the country have been spectacular and it makes sense to consolidate before looking at any further advances. But now focusing on the Kherson area makes sense, especially if Russia wants to keep on feeding troops to Ukrainian forces to shoot up.
I think only then will we see the offensive in Zaporozhzhie, around which time it will make sense to push hard in Kherson. Meanwhile Kherson should be liberated with fewest casualties as possible. There is no rush, as long as it is cut off using Himars.
The Ukraine also can't really afford a big defeat or even too costly a victory. I think they'll prefer to see if they can make the Russians in Kherson surrender rather than attacking it (or least be softened up by a winter under siege) - they're not going anywhere, winter is not going to be enjoyable for the occupiers, and Ukraine have got complete control over the supply line. It's heartless for the Ukranian citizens, as you noted, but Zelenskiy et al have proved to be pragmatic and I predict they would much rather preserve strength (and get the PR boost from Russians surrendering) than win a Pyrrhic victory which would set Spring defensive lines on the Dnipr.Sandydragon wrote:Protecting the flanks will be important for Ukraine as at some point their offensive will stop, either because it runs out of steam or weather or both. Kherson is effectively under siege but that’s a Ukrainian city with Ukrainian citizens in there. The Ukraine don’t want a long urban battle but equally the idea of an over winter siege isn’t a great one either.Which Tyler wrote:I'm no military tactician, but from what I can tell on the maps, there's large expanses of Luhansk they can take with relatively little in the way of protective geography. Ukraine are already over the Oskil, then it's the Zherebets and the Aidar as the last big North-South rivers in the area, and the Siverskyi-Donets, which is where the Russians will be well dug in.
Unfortunately, that gives Ukrain a larger border, as they'll have to keep units back to keep an eye on the actual Russian border as well - I suspect Ukraine will push on to one of those North-South rivers (my bet's the Aidar - if they can get there before winter comes - that gives them a much better chances of battering Lyschyansk and Severodonetsk from 2 sides - from what I can tell of the maps, this also cuts Luhansk off from the last big rail line to Russia from the North).
Of course, it's still an absolutely huge swathe of land to secure, and may simply be too optimistic with their current resources (really don't want them to overextend)
Kherson is already looking after itself, essentially besieged already, it's just a matter of time until it falls with minimal losses to Ukraine - unless Russia can build a bridge across the Dnipro, and keep it hidden from HIMARS.
The rest seems like it's more having enough troops, and probes, to keep Russian troops busy where they are. They've launched a few attempts along the east of the border, but it's all pretty well fortified, and fairly static for now.
Of course, things may well change as Ukraine's new troops are being trained up, and returned to Ukraine - but for now, I suspect they'll mostly be used to rotate and give the previous troops a rest, and go again in the Spring.
