Minibudget

[Stooo V2]

We. Are. Fucked.

[Sandydragon]

Indeed.

Welcome back btw.

[Which Tyler]

Likelihood of violence in the streets this winter has surely gone up significantly

[Puja]

The highlight of this whole debacle was this quote: https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/202 ... s-minister

The "levelling up secretary" (and it's comedic that this government are still pretending that that's even a priority for them anymore) said that it was ridiculous to describe the minibudget as trickle down economics and “This whole term trickle-down is such a nonsense and is itself a centre-left mischaracterisation of what this government is all about. We need to grow the economy because a more successful economy is good for everybody.”

Obviously a reaction to the fact that Biden just publically came out against trickle-down economics and so it's now a poisonous phrase that they want to distance themselves from, but I'm tickled by the fact that disavowing it means that they're now not even bothering to pretend that some of the wealth creation will trickle down. It's just making rich richer and we're not even bothering to put the patina of "and you'll get some too as well, promise," on it anymore.

Puja

[Stooo V2]

Indeed.

Welcome back btw.

Cheers my dude.

[UKHamlet]

She's set a target of 2.5% annual GDP increases and then done exactly what is necessary NOT to do that. The large increases in public spending will help move the figures without actually doing anything to help those suffering. Even the arch capitalists are sceptical.

Neil Shearing, group chief economist at Capital Economics, a consultancy, shared similar worries over whether the proposed tax cuts would spur significant levels of economic growth. “We’ve had 15 years of very low growth” he said, “but these tax cuts take us back to the levels we were at 18 months ago, when growth was still very low. So the idea that it’s going to spur this huge revival in economic growth I find difficult to believe.”

Torsten Bell, the chief executive of the Resolution Foundation think tank, “This is not a game. No living policymaker has been through a phase of trying to implement a discretionary fiscal loosening (of tax cuts) on top of an unavoidable fiscal loosening (of energy subsidies), on top of a phase where the Bank of England says there is no spare capacity and is raising interest rates.”

The policy mix is “a gamble, a risk”, he added. “It’s unusual – to be polite.”

[Which Tyler]

[Sandydragon]

And not reported too much just yet in amongst all the tax cuts are a requirement for those on universal credit to demonstrate more that they are seeking work.

This is beyond doubling down. If this doesn't hand Labour the next election then Labour just need to pack their bags and give up. If the economy were dooming well and we didnt have a cost of living crisis then my objections to this would be minimal. But with the crisis full blown and NHS about to fall over, cutting banker bonus limits won't fix any of those issues.

[UKHamlet]

And not reported too much just yet in amongst all the tax cuts are a requirement for those on universal credit to demonstrate more that they are seeking work.

This is beyond doubling down. If this doesn't hand Labour the next election then Labour just need to pack their bags and give up. If the economy were dooming well and we didnt have a cost of living crisis then my objections to this would be minimal. But with the crisis full blown and NHS about to fall over, cutting banker bonus limits won't fix any of those issues.

The problem is, of course, the inertia built-in to the electoral system. No-one has overturned an eighty seat majority. Thanks Jeremy.

[Sandydragon]

Its a big ask, but many of those seats aren't secure. If the Liberals and Labour work together then they can certainly get to a coalition. Without Scotland, Labour will be very hard pressed to ever get a majority, so the SNP need to be part of this too.

[Stooo V2]

Its a big ask, but many of those seats aren't secure. If the Liberals and Labour work together then they can certainly get to a coalition. Without Scotland, Labour will be very hard pressed to ever get a majority, so the SNP need to be part of this too.

Isn't keef moving to enshrine that Scotland can never have a referendum?

If so good luck with that

[UKHamlet]

Its a big ask, but many of those seats aren't secure. If the Liberals and Labour work together then they can certainly get to a coalition. Without Scotland, Labour will be very hard pressed to ever get a majority, so the SNP need to be part of this too.

There's a problem with that too. Quite apart from the SNP being cynical bastards, they are completely and utterly opposed to PR, which Labour will commit to at the next conference now the Unions are on board. The reason is, they get 5% of the national vote. They have 45 MPs atm. Their vote only warrants 32-33. They'll shaft anyone who tries to take their voting power.

[Sandydragon]

Its a big ask, but many of those seats aren't secure. If the Liberals and Labour work together then they can certainly get to a coalition. Without Scotland, Labour will be very hard pressed to ever get a majority, so the SNP need to be part of this too.

There's a problem with that too. Quite apart from the SNP being cynical bastards, they are completely and utterly opposed to PR, which Labour will commit to at the next conference now the Unions are on board. The reason is, they get 5% of the national vote. They have 45 MPs atm. Their vote only warrants 32-33. They'll shaft anyone who tries to take their voting power.

Putting the character issues aside, I can't see them supporting the conservatives at all and even if they added their weight to a Labour/Liberal coalition it would probably be enough. Labour might have to agree to another referendum as the price.

[Puja]

And not reported too much just yet in amongst all the tax cuts are a requirement for those on universal credit to demonstrate more that they are seeking work.

This is beyond doubling down. If this doesn't hand Labour the next election then Labour just need to pack their bags and give up. If the economy were dooming well and we didnt have a cost of living crisis then my objections to this would be minimal. But with the crisis full blown and NHS about to fall over, cutting banker bonus limits won't fix any of those issues.

The problem is, of course, the inertia built-in to the electoral system. No-one has overturned an eighty seat majority. Thanks Jeremy.

I don't know that the current MP counts from the 2019 election are particularly relevant to what could happen 2024(?). It's not like a normal election, where seats are earned through patient long-term effort and improvement through several electoral cycles and an 80 seat deficit is insurmountable in one go. For one thing, 2019 was weird as elections go - it was the Brexit election that people expected 2017 to be, as well as an utter annihilation in one side weaponising the media and the other being utterly incompetent in defending. A fair few of the seats gained were GetBrexitDone-related and, while I think Boris is a tosspot, he does reach parts than other politicians can't reach and which Truss can't even see.

Secondly, Liz Truss is leaning into, "I'm prepared to make unpopular decisions" pretty fucking hard and, if the economy doesn't obey her treasured supply-side economic theories and give her the recovery she hopes for, she could be an absolute pariah. I don't think there's much inertia - it's going from one extremely atypical election and could be, rather than regressing to the mean, launching into another atypical election in the opposite direction.

Puja

[Which Tyler]

[morepork]

This is fucking madness. The UK has been taken over by lobbyists. And the powers that be don't seem to care.

[Son of Mathonwy]

The markets don't like it either (also generally have lost confidence in the competence of this government) - big fall in the pound, big rise in yields on gilts.

This is pure gold for Labour, if they can get past the vote suppression measures being put in place (we already know how long the wait is for a new passport - what if you need it to vote?).

On the size of the current majority - I don't see this as an insurmountable barrier. Every GE is a blank slate - all seats need to be won again . . . and the Tories will lose most of those Johnson hoodwinked in 2019.

[Son of Mathonwy]

According to the Guardian, Nigel Farage says it's “the best Conservative budget since 1986”.

[Which Tyler]

[Puja]

He has just an eminently punchable smirk, doesn't he?

Puja

[Which Tyler]

[Donny osmond]

Its a big ask, but many of those seats aren't secure. If the Liberals and Labour work together then they can certainly get to a coalition. Without Scotland, Labour will be very hard pressed to ever get a majority, so the SNP need to be part of this too.

Isn't keef moving to enshrine that Scotland can never have a referendum?

If so good luck with that

No one is moving to enshrine that

[Sandydragon]

Noting that the PM’s chief of staff is being paid via a company rather than as a temp civil servant then that puts the IR35 decision into context.

[Which Tyler]

[Banquo]

Hope you checked the source for that