If Russia invades Ukraine (more)...

[Puja]

The Russian-controlled areas have all spontaneously decided that they really want to have referenda on joining Russia this weekend. What a crazy random happenstance! I wonder what the announced result is going to be?

Lot of speculation that this is Putin laying the groundwork to turn this into a war instead of a Special military Operation because, once the regions are annexed, those mean Ukranians and their NATO weapons are going to be viciously and unprovokedly attacking the pure soil of Mother Russia and in which case a general mobilisation/tactical nukes can be authorised to defend the country. Bit alarming - anyone got some good news to cheer me up?

Puja

[Which Tyler]

anyone got some good news to cheer me up?

Looks like Iran might be facing a lot of dissent and protests - stretching a bit, this could potentially lead to a revolution?

[Which Tyler]

[Sandydragon]

The Russian-controlled areas have all spontaneously decided that they really want to have referenda on joining Russia this weekend. What a crazy random happenstance! I wonder what the announced result is going to be?

Lot of speculation that this is Putin laying the groundwork to turn this into a war instead of a Special military Operation because, once the regions are annexed, those mean Ukranians and their NATO weapons are going to be viciously and unprovokedly attacking the pure soil of Mother Russia and in which case a general mobilisation/tactical nukes can be authorised to defend the country. Bit alarming - anyone got some good news to cheer me up?

Puja

I'd love to be positive about this but I really can't be. Putin knows that if he is seen to lose then he is a dead man walking. Dictators don't tend to have good retirement options. So if its a case of win or face a bullet in the back of the head, he might be stupid enough to use tactical nukes in Ukraine.

Being crazy enough to launch a nuke at a Nato country is another matter altogether. He must know (and his hangers on must also realise) that nuking London (for instance) will have a very significant impact on Russia.

If those areas do become part of Russia then it will hamper Ukraines war effort. Seizing as much ground now as possible is a good options to prepare as treading carefully will be important thereafter.

It might also be time to start looking at how Ukraine can join Nato.

[Sandydragon]

anyone got some good news to cheer me up?

Looks like Iran might be facing a lot of dissent and protests - stretching a bit, this could potentially lead to a revolution?

One can only hope.

[morepork]

anyone got some good news to cheer me up?

Looks like Iran might be facing a lot of dissent and protests - stretching a bit, this could potentially lead to a revolution?

One can only hope.

Like we did in 1953 when outside influence cemented overly zealous religious justification in place of the scary proposition of socialised industry. That worked out well.

[Sandydragon]

Looks like Iran might be facing a lot of dissent and protests - stretching a bit, this could potentially lead to a revolution?

One can only hope.

Like we did in 1953 when outside influence cemented overly zealous religious justification in place of the scary proposition of socialised industry. That worked out well.

Yes, the west screwed up by overthrowing the elected government and installing the Shah. But not having a religiously extreme government that supported terrorist groups around the region in power would be a benefit to us.

[paddy no 11]

Ukraine, arm them to the hilt and push on, kadyrov criticising putin now, he'll continue to crumble

[Which Tyler]

Includes this complete mystery

[Sandydragon]

Also of interest are the queues of men trying to leave Russia before mobilisation, many of whom are driving foreign cars, so probably reasonably affluent middle class and not just those from the far flung areas who have been used as cannon fodder up to this point.

In a way its a shame they aren't staying and demonstrating, but another brick is loosened in Putin's regime.

[Puja]

Strong position from China, even it it's not one they're only willing to put out second-hand:



Not a good sign for Putin's plan of annexing territory and then claiming he's being attacked if China are already making noises about not standing behind it.

Puja

[cashead]

Also of interest are the queues of men trying to leave Russia before mobilisation, many of whom are driving foreign cars, so probably reasonably affluent middle class and not just those from the far flung areas who have been used as cannon fodder up to this point.

In a way its a shame they aren't staying and demonstrating, but another brick is loosened in Putin's regime.

Looks like they're also targeting specific ethnic groups too, like Crimean Tatars. Gonna guess they're intended to soak up Ukrainian bullets because there's no way in hell all these guys can be trained to a basic level of competence before they're in the shit in eastern Ukraine. It's a bunch of untrained yahoos being sent into the meat grinder to jam it up.

[Sandydragon]

Also of interest are the queues of men trying to leave Russia before mobilisation, many of whom are driving foreign cars, so probably reasonably affluent middle class and not just those from the far flung areas who have been used as cannon fodder up to this point.

In a way its a shame they aren't staying and demonstrating, but another brick is loosened in Putin's regime.

Looks like they're also targeting specific ethnic groups too, like Crimean Tatars. Gonna guess they're intended to soak up Ukrainian bullets because there's no way in hell all these guys can be trained to a basic level of competence before they're in the shit in eastern Ukraine. It's a bunch of untrained yahoos being sent into the meat grinder to jam it up.

It’s the Russian way. Mass is what they are all about. Even in the latter phases of WWII they were completely uninterested in casualties.

[Which Tyler]

This is a bit earlier than I was expecting - I guess I was basing things on seasons in the UK, rather than actually looking up when the heavy rains fall in Ukraine. It's going to slow things, and make transport hubs ever more important - which has to favour Ukraine with HIMARS and apparently, far superior special forces operations.

[Sandydragon]

This is a bit earlier than I was expecting - I guess I was basing things on seasons in the UK, rather than actually looking up when the heavy rains fall in Ukraine. It's going to slow things, and make transport hubs ever more important - which has to favour Ukraine with HIMARS and apparently, far superior special forces operations.

[MEDIA=twitter]1574209231661711363[/MEDIA]

It will slow things down and will make it harder for Ukraine to take ground rapidly. But equally it will be hard for Russia to keep cities like Kherson supplied when their supply dumps keep getting obliterated. It could make it a long and miserable autumn and winter for Russian troops which will do nothing to boost their apparently shaky morale.

[Puja]

US takes the lead in threatening "catastrophic consequences for Russia" if they use nuclear weapons in Ukraine: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/202 ... e-sullivan

Good news - it had to be the US saying that first, cause anyone waving a nuclear dick around would be like me trying to intimidate a porn star, but it would've been very easy for Biden et al to have avoided saying anything much of anything and equivocated around it to not take a position.I don't know if it'll help him domestically (or if the average Yank voter knows or understands), but it's the morally right move to have made.

Puja

[Which Tyler]

It will slow things down and will make it harder for Ukraine to take ground rapidly. But equally it will be hard for Russia to keep cities like Kherson supplied when their supply dumps keep getting obliterated. It could make it a long and miserable autumn and winter for Russian troops which will do nothing to boost their apparently shaky morale.

Usual proviso that I've no military / logistical training...

There are obviously positive and negative points to anything like this; I'm also not sure what I "want" from a Ukrainian winter this year.

The mud will mean that moving heavy equipment & supplies around will become much more predictable, and target-able - which benefits Ukraine massively - though they want to shoot and scoot, so they could be putting their HIMARS at risk by doing so.
Militarily, a harsh winter will be worse on the Russian armed forces than Ukrainian, if only down to supplies - and good-will from residents.
On a humanitarian level, a harsh winter could kill a LOT of Ukrainians in occupied territory.

[Mellsblue]

US takes the lead in threatening "catastrophic consequences for Russia" if they use nuclear weapons in Ukraine: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/202 ... e-sullivan

Good news - it had to be the US saying that first, cause anyone waving a nuclear dick around would be like me trying to intimidate a porn star, but it would've been very easy for Biden et al to have avoided saying anything much of anything and equivocated around it to not take a position.I don't know if it'll help him domestically (or if the average Yank voter knows or understands), but it's the morally right move to have made.

Puja

Obama said similar if chemical weapons were used in Syria…

[Sandydragon]

It will slow things down and will make it harder for Ukraine to take ground rapidly. But equally it will be hard for Russia to keep cities like Kherson supplied when their supply dumps keep getting obliterated. It could make it a long and miserable autumn and winter for Russian troops which will do nothing to boost their apparently shaky morale.

Usual proviso that I've no military / logistical training...

There are obviously positive and negative points to anything like this; I'm also not sure what I "want" from a Ukrainian winter this year.

The mud will mean that moving heavy equipment & supplies around will become much more predictable, and target-able - which benefits Ukraine massively - though they want to shoot and scoot, so they could be putting their HIMARS at risk by doing so.
Militarily, a harsh winter will be worse on the Russian armed forces than Ukrainian, if only down to supplies - and good-will from residents.
On a humanitarian level, a harsh winter could kill a LOT of Ukrainians in occupied territory.

The last bit is, sadly, likely to be the case. if Russian troops aren't being fed then they will steal from the locals, which will lead to starvation. I really hope I'm wrong, but its a huge risk.

[Sandydragon]

US takes the lead in threatening "catastrophic consequences for Russia" if they use nuclear weapons in Ukraine: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/202 ... e-sullivan

Good news - it had to be the US saying that first, cause anyone waving a nuclear dick around would be like me trying to intimidate a porn star, but it would've been very easy for Biden et al to have avoided saying anything much of anything and equivocated around it to not take a position.I don't know if it'll help him domestically (or if the average Yank voter knows or understands), but it's the morally right move to have made.

Puja

Obama said similar if chemical weapons were used in Syria…

Hopefully this is more meaningful than that. Obama should never have drawn a red line he wasn't prepared to enforce.

[Mellsblue]

US takes the lead in threatening "catastrophic consequences for Russia" if they use nuclear weapons in Ukraine: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/202 ... e-sullivan

Good news - it had to be the US saying that first, cause anyone waving a nuclear dick around would be like me trying to intimidate a porn star, but it would've been very easy for Biden et al to have avoided saying anything much of anything and equivocated around it to not take a position.I don't know if it'll help him domestically (or if the average Yank voter knows or understands), but it's the morally right move to have made.

Puja

Obama said similar if chemical weapons were used in Syria…

Hopefully this is more meaningful than that. Obama should never have drawn a red line he wasn't prepared to enforce.

Yep and yep. A lot of the issues we have now are based on the fact that we’ve either stood by and watched Putin do as he pleases or he’s called our bluff. Why not chance his arm once more given the situation he’s made for himself. If I were a betting man, I think Biden would do as little as possible in response, eg increase sanctions and/or send over more offensive weapons and/or cyber attack, that wouldn’t have a material affect on Putin’s decision making. Hope I’m wrong. Well, I hope we never have to find out if I’m wrong.
If the nutter does use nuclear weapons the US/NATO/West are in a no win situation.

[Puja]

US takes the lead in threatening "catastrophic consequences for Russia" if they use nuclear weapons in Ukraine: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/202 ... e-sullivan

Good news - it had to be the US saying that first, cause anyone waving a nuclear dick around would be like me trying to intimidate a porn star, but it would've been very easy for Biden et al to have avoided saying anything much of anything and equivocated around it to not take a position.I don't know if it'll help him domestically (or if the average Yank voter knows or understands), but it's the morally right move to have made.

Puja

Obama said similar if chemical weapons were used in Syria…

Fair point. Mind, Syria was more of a confusing and deniable clusterfuck than this - the Russian army wasn't even officially there, any chemical weapons definitely didn't happen and, if they did happen, were solely the province of the locals, etc. etc. Plus chemical weapons are a very wavy red line generally, in that they've been used lots, all over the place, and no-one's really enforced anything on the users. Sandy's right - it was a stupid thing to try and draw a red line on.

Nuclear weapons, on the other hand, are the one red line that everyone agrees on so hard that nations have lost wars when they could have won them (or at least made a desert and called it peace) with even low-yield nukes. It's universally considered the ultimate beyond the pale action, to the extent that it's never been done again after the first time (counting Hiroshima and Nagasaki as one occasion as they were effectively the same strike in political terms).

I'd like to hope it's enough to give Putin pause and be sending a solid message that the consensus still stands and even a wafer-thin tactical nuke will not be tolerated by the world at large.

Puja

[Mellsblue]

US takes the lead in threatening "catastrophic consequences for Russia" if they use nuclear weapons in Ukraine: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/202 ... e-sullivan

Good news - it had to be the US saying that first, cause anyone waving a nuclear dick around would be like me trying to intimidate a porn star, but it would've been very easy for Biden et al to have avoided saying anything much of anything and equivocated around it to not take a position.I don't know if it'll help him domestically (or if the average Yank voter knows or understands), but it's the morally right move to have made.

Puja

Obama said similar if chemical weapons were used in Syria…

Fair point. Mind, Syria was more of a confusing and deniable clusterfuck than this - the Russian army wasn't even officially there, any chemical weapons definitely didn't happen and, if they did happen, were solely the province of the locals, etc. etc. Plus chemical weapons are a very wavy red line generally, in that they've been used lots, all over the place, and no-one's really enforced anything on the users. Sandy's right - it was a stupid thing to try and draw a red line on.

Nuclear weapons, on the other hand, are the one red line that everyone agrees on so hard that nations have lost wars when they could have won them (or at least made a desert and called it peace) with even low-yield nukes. It's universally considered the ultimate beyond the pale action, to the extent that it's never been done again after the first time (counting Hiroshima and Nagasaki as one occasion as they were effectively the same strike in political terms).

I'd like to hope it's enough to give Putin pause and be sending a solid message that the consensus still stands and even a wafer-thin tactical nuke will not be tolerated by the world at large.

Puja

Both Syria and Russia are signatories to the Chemical Weapons Convention…
Obama knew of the conditions in Syria when he made the red line though, ultimately, it’s just one in a long list of western acts of inaction or negative actions that have led to this point.

[Sandydragon]

Obama said similar if chemical weapons were used in Syria…

Fair point. Mind, Syria was more of a confusing and deniable clusterfuck than this - the Russian army wasn't even officially there, any chemical weapons definitely didn't happen and, if they did happen, were solely the province of the locals, etc. etc. Plus chemical weapons are a very wavy red line generally, in that they've been used lots, all over the place, and no-one's really enforced anything on the users. Sandy's right - it was a stupid thing to try and draw a red line on.

Nuclear weapons, on the other hand, are the one red line that everyone agrees on so hard that nations have lost wars when they could have won them (or at least made a desert and called it peace) with even low-yield nukes. It's universally considered the ultimate beyond the pale action, to the extent that it's never been done again after the first time (counting Hiroshima and Nagasaki as one occasion as they were effectively the same strike in political terms).

I'd like to hope it's enough to give Putin pause and be sending a solid message that the consensus still stands and even a wafer-thin tactical nuke will not be tolerated by the world at large.

Puja

Both Syria and Russia are signatories to the Chemical Weapons Convention…
Obama knew of the conditions in Syria when he made the red line though, ultimately, it’s just one in a long list of western acts of inaction or negative actions that have led to this point.

Chemical weapons get confusing because of the classification of white phosphorous and other signalling smoke which sometimes gets included. But sarin and mustard gas are very clearly prohibited. Their use was a massive breach and Obama could have taken action when that was proven, which it has been. But by drawing a red line (and its arguable over whether he might have done something if the UK had been committed as well) the US' reputation took a hit which can only have emboldened Syria and Russia. Add to that the Afghanistan debacle and its not surprising Putin thinks he can get away with, well, murder.

[Mellsblue]

Fair point. Mind, Syria was more of a confusing and deniable clusterfuck than this - the Russian army wasn't even officially there, any chemical weapons definitely didn't happen and, if they did happen, were solely the province of the locals, etc. etc. Plus chemical weapons are a very wavy red line generally, in that they've been used lots, all over the place, and no-one's really enforced anything on the users. Sandy's right - it was a stupid thing to try and draw a red line on.

Nuclear weapons, on the other hand, are the one red line that everyone agrees on so hard that nations have lost wars when they could have won them (or at least made a desert and called it peace) with even low-yield nukes. It's universally considered the ultimate beyond the pale action, to the extent that it's never been done again after the first time (counting Hiroshima and Nagasaki as one occasion as they were effectively the same strike in political terms).

I'd like to hope it's enough to give Putin pause and be sending a solid message that the consensus still stands and even a wafer-thin tactical nuke will not be tolerated by the world at large.

Puja

Both Syria and Russia are signatories to the Chemical Weapons Convention…
Obama knew of the conditions in Syria when he made the red line though, ultimately, it’s just one in a long list of western acts of inaction or negative actions that have led to this point.

Chemical weapons get confusing because of the classification of white phosphorous and other signalling smoke which sometimes gets included. But sarin and mustard gas are very clearly prohibited. Their use was a massive breach and Obama could have taken action when that was proven, which it has been. But by drawing a red line (and its arguable over whether he might have done something if the UK had been committed as well) the US' reputation took a hit which can only have emboldened Syria and Russia. Add to that the Afghanistan debacle and its not surprising Putin thinks he can get away with, well, murder.

Yep. We definitely need to take a decent proportion of the blame.