If Russia invades Ukraine (more)...

[Puja]

Yampil and Drobysheve evacuated by Russians. They're sending mobilized to the neck of the encirclement by Torkse/Zarichne. I think we can expect another 'regrouping' or 'redeployment' within the next 48 hours.

Surely Russia wouldn't *abandon* their new citizens who democratically voted by 99% to be Russian?!?

Puja

[Sandydragon]

Yampil and Drobysheve evacuated by Russians. They're sending mobilized to the neck of the encirclement by Torkse/Zarichne. I think we can expect another 'regrouping' or 'redeployment' within the next 48 hours.

Surely Russia wouldn't *abandon* their new citizens who democratically voted by 99% to be Russian?!?

Puja

Somewhat interesting that in at least 2 of the regions that Russia has apparently/ is going to annex, their forces don't even control half of the territory. Of course Putin may decide that annexation isnt worth the hassle as it will push him into a corner. If his bluff doesn't work then he is almost forced to use a nuke. Maybe he hopes the Ukrainian offensive will burn out, winter will come and he can regroup, and use fresh troops next year to reclaim some of the lost land?

On the other hand, who knows what he will do as surely he must know that he has no retirement option here (unless very lucky) and voices within will be plotting against him.

[Which Tyler]

Yampil and Drobysheve evacuated by Russians. They're sending mobilized to the neck of the encirclement by Torkse/Zarichne. I think we can expect another 'regrouping' or 'redeployment' within the next 48 hours.

I said on t'other page that I was in the process of putting together a googlemap of the major logistical points of interest - still very early, but here's what I've got: https://www.google.com/maps/d/u/0/edit? ... sp=sharing

I just find that, when looking at the major obstacles, and critical points for Ukraine to control, to actually have these things on the map (Google really doesn't give a damn about rivers and railways, for example)

[Zhivago]

Ukraine is applying for accelerated entry into NATO.

NATO press conference now.



edit: Having watched it, it was just reaffirming Ukraine's right to self-defence. There could have been a stronger reaction from NATO imo.

[Galfon]

There appears to be plenty of private frazer type responses to the moves - nato country (ukr) being invaded by rus / rus land (ahem..) under attack by nato = kick-off, but bit to go yet..

Stoltenberg - the alliance’s immediate focus is on the war:

“A decision on membership, of course, has to be taken by all 30 allies and we take these decisions by consensus,” he said. “Our focus now,” he added, “is on providing immediate support to Ukraine, to help Ukraine defend itself against the Russian brutal invasion.” 

[Puja]

There appears to be plenty of private frazer type responses to the moves - nato country (ukr) being invaded by rus / rus land (ahem..) under attack by nato = kick-off, but bit to go yet..

Stoltenberg - the alliance’s immediate focus is on the war:

“A decision on membership, of course, has to be taken by all 30 allies and we take these decisions by consensus,” he said. “Our focus now,” he added, “is on providing immediate support to Ukraine, to help Ukraine defend itself against the Russian brutal invasion.” 

I don't think anyone was expecting them to be immediately invited in, least of all Ukraine (not least because entering NATO would almost certainly enforce immediate truce on the status quo as we don't want to declare war on Russia). However, it's a strong move by Zelenskiy - a swift riposte to the Russian illegal referenda and declaration and pretty much the only escalation available to him.

Puja

[Which Tyler]

https://www.ukrdailyupdate.com/updates/ ... mber-29-30



I've put both options up - I prefer prose, but some prefer tweets.

Some "highlights"

Speaking of catastrophic casualties, Ukraine intercepted a transmission of a Russian platoon leader asking for a medivac for his wounded men. Instead, his commander told him to bury the wounded. When the platoon leader pushed back, the commander said he didn't care and that this was an order for everyone. Yes, a direct order to bury wounded men.

I have very little clarity about the situation around Kupyansk. I have the feeling not much has changed.
However, I have heard that Ukraine continues to cause massive, truly horrific casualties to Russia in this area. I do not believe Ukraine has much incentive to move from its positions. Instead, they watch Russians move into known defensive positions and then destroy them with artillery. Then watch another group go in. Over and over again. As I stated earlier, Russia is not medivacking the wounded. The casualties are enormous and, without medical care, even moderate wounds become lethal.

[Zhivago]

https://www.ukrdailyupdate.com/updates/ ... mber-29-30



I've put both options up - I prefer prose, but some prefer tweets.

Some "highlights"

Speaking of catastrophic casualties, Ukraine intercepted a transmission of a Russian platoon leader asking for a medivac for his wounded men. Instead, his commander told him to bury the wounded. When the platoon leader pushed back, the commander said he didn't care and that this was an order for everyone. Yes, a direct order to bury wounded men.

I have very little clarity about the situation around Kupyansk. I have the feeling not much has changed.
However, I have heard that Ukraine continues to cause massive, truly horrific casualties to Russia in this area. I do not believe Ukraine has much incentive to move from its positions. Instead, they watch Russians move into known defensive positions and then destroy them with artillery. Then watch another group go in. Over and over again. As I stated earlier, Russia is not medivacking the wounded. The casualties are enormous and, without medical care, even moderate wounds become lethal.

I read some prose that described it as a slaughter. Lots of dead Russians apparently

[Which Tyler]

Here's some prose
https://ukrainevolunteer297689472.wordp ... slaughter/

I would say thank you - but I think I read far enough that I'm not going to be sleeping well for a few nights.

[Zhivago]

Here's some prose
https://ukrainevolunteer297689472.wordp ... slaughter/

I would say thank you - but I think I read far enough that I'm not going to be sleeping well for a few nights.

You can always stop reading at any point if it gets too heavy.

I also just now was shown a video of Russians very relieved at having escaped from Kreminna. I guess they've already started to switch their focus to there. The entire front line might be collapsing at this point.

Not much point of sharing the video or even a full transcript. But basically along the lines of 'fuck that was scary. but it must be scary. we are fine. we left kreminna. god give health to all the guys.' and lots more swearing. The video was from last night.

[Sandydragon]

https://www.ukrdailyupdate.com/updates/ ... mber-29-30



I've put both options up - I prefer prose, but some prefer tweets.

Some "highlights"

Speaking of catastrophic casualties, Ukraine intercepted a transmission of a Russian platoon leader asking for a medivac for his wounded men. Instead, his commander told him to bury the wounded. When the platoon leader pushed back, the commander said he didn't care and that this was an order for everyone. Yes, a direct order to bury wounded men.

I have very little clarity about the situation around Kupyansk. I have the feeling not much has changed.
However, I have heard that Ukraine continues to cause massive, truly horrific casualties to Russia in this area. I do not believe Ukraine has much incentive to move from its positions. Instead, they watch Russians move into known defensive positions and then destroy them with artillery. Then watch another group go in. Over and over again. As I stated earlier, Russia is not medivacking the wounded. The casualties are enormous and, without medical care, even moderate wounds become lethal.

Here's some prose
https://ukrainevolunteer297689472.wordp ... slaughter/

And they wonder why Russian morale is so bad.

[Zhivago]

[Sandydragon]

That’s a decent advance in 24 hours. We shall soon find out if Putin was indeed bluffing.

[Which Tyler]

Keep an eye on Kherson overnight

[Zhivago]

Keep an eye on Kherson overnight

Davidiv Brid?

[Galfon]

Kherson seems to be a hazardous place to be at the moment for senior Rus-appointed administrators.
Several have reportedly had the misfortune of being sadly in the same location as Ukr missile strikes there in the last week.

[Son of Mathonwy]

Kherson seems to be a hazardous place to be at the moment for senior Rus-appointed administrators.
Several have reportedly had the misfortune of being sadly in the same location as Ukr missile strikes there in the last week.

Yeah, I bet those four guys having such a great time pressing knuckles with Putin the other day were just happy to be out of Ukraine for a little while.

[Zhivago]

Keep an eye on Kherson overnight

[Zhivago]

[Zhivago]

Kherson stuff happening




and another online map
https://t.co/ZkMMwQEl5t

[Sandydragon]

Thanks Zhivago.

Amazing news. Now we need to watch and wait for Putins response. Will it go nuclear?

[Zhivago]

Thanks Zhivago.

Amazing news. Now we need to watch and wait for Putins response. Will it go nuclear?

My guess is that yes, eventually Putin will attempt to escalate to the nuclear level in some way, up to and including actually using such weapons. Pure speculation of course, therefore with such topics, I prefer to refer to my 'GeneralSVR' telegram source, which supposedly has insider info, and whose post of this morning touches on this topic:

On Sunday evening, Putin held a meeting via videoconference with the leadership of the military and power blocs. Representatives of the leadership of the military bloc only stated the loss of troops, weapons and territories and did not demonstrate any optimism or enthusiasm. The main problem, as before, the military leadership considers the lack of weapons.

Most of the General Staff confidently asserts that mobilization will not radically change anything, will not serve as a turning point, and at best, will briefly delay the offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, but at the same time, the number of losses among the Russian military will increase by a multiple. The general assessment of the majority in the General Staff and the Ministry of Defense is that the war is lost, and its continuation is senseless and, as some are already saying, criminal. This position has already been conveyed to the president several times through reports and personal communication, but he categorically refuses to admit the obvious and is trying once again to outwit fate, this time at the cost of hundreds of thousands of lives on both sides of the front.

The very possibility of delivering a nuclear strike against an enemy at the front, as well as the fact that with the help of the limited use of tactical nuclear weapons, the situation will change radically, causes skepticism in the General Staff, but sliding into a global nuclear war of mutual destruction with the whole world is regarded as quite possible scenario.

During the meeting, Putin said several times that it is necessary to act faster (there is no time to build up!), To contain the offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, throw in those freshly called up for mobilization. Once again, the president promised that there would be personal responsibility for the loss of territories, but these words are already perceived doomed, even with a certain amount of irritation and do not affect the situation in any way.

During the meeting, Secretary of the Security Council of the Russian Federation Nikolai Patrushev uttered the key phrase: “Shame! What a disgrace!" To whom this appeal was addressed remained a mystery, perhaps just a rhetorical statement with a statement of the situation, but the fact that most people in the elites already have poorly concealed irritation towards the still acting president is unequivocal.

[Sandydragon]

On the subject of going nuclear, I was having a chat with an old service mate of mine the other day, and there are good reasons for Putin not to push the button.

Firstly, if he uses a tactical nuke and it doesn't stop the rate of Ukrainian advance, then what. Lots more nukes or even strategic weapons? Putting that toothpaste back into the tube will be impossible. Plus Ukraine will get every weapon it wants to finish the job.

Nuking a deserted island to send a warning may not work. Then what if his bluff is called.

Any nuclear activity that affects Nato countries will have a very serious response. He and his top team know that.

But, can his army actually operate in a nuclear battlefield? His troops have taken significant casualties and the Russian army can't even provide proper first aid kids. Any takers on trying out their CBRN equipment for real? Are all of their troops properly equipped given that some have gone from recruiting station to front line in less than a week? If tactical nukes are to be used, then it would be against large Ukrainian formations with a view to occupying the ground once regular troops had finished them off. But if the Russian army can't advance onto radioactive ground then a tactical nuke becomes pointless, other than as a petulant gesture.

Putin is quite capable of making petulant gestures, especially when egged on by that Chechnyan psychopath. But the advantages may not be what he thinks they are and unless he is really prepared to go all out against Nato, will only result in a total defeat for him.

Who in his inner circle is brave enough to explain that to him?

[Mellsblue]

Everything coming out of the US would suggest they think it’s a strong possibility.

[Zhivago]

Borova in Kharkiv oblast reportedly liberated