Turkey 15/7/16

[Stones of granite]

So, has the Turkish military finally run out of patience with Erdogan?

[Zhivago]

wow the world always shocks me... didn't see that coming

[rowan]

Lots of choppers buzzing around here, as I mentioned on the other thread, and a few news sites are down - along with Facebook - which is why you have the pleasure of my company this evening Reports through of gunfire in the capital and military jets flying about, and the Bosphorus bridges in Istanbul have apparently been blocked off. There hasn't been a successful military coup in Turkey since 1980. About a decade ago they rattled their sabres over the appointment of a president whose wife wore a headscarf in public, and not long after that the government threw all the military leaders in jail for a while - without trial - until the courts finally forced their release.

[Stones of granite]

The BBC is reporting Turkish military commanders that they have taken control of the country "for democratic order"

[Stones of granite]

RT reporting same as BBC

[rowan]

That's news to me right now, as the local news sites go down one by one, though national TV's still reporting live on it.

Oh wait, everything's okay. Facebook is back Nothing to worry about after all...

[Stones of granite]

That's news to me right now, as the local news sites go down one by one, though national TV's still reporting live on it.

Oh wait, everything's okay. Facebook is back Nothing to worry about after all...

Is it playing martial music?

[Stones of granite]

RT reporting that top officials are being held by the military. Status of Erdogan is unknown, he's thought to be in Bodrum.

[rowan]

Yep, the soldiers are on TV now and they're definitely in charge in th capital. This can't be good. If the coup succeeds, it's military rule - at least for a while. If it fails, our glorious leader comes out stronger than ever. Will have to leave you there as I go answer some messages on FB.

[Which Tyler]

That's news to me right now, as the local news sites go down one by one, though national TV's still reporting live on it.

Oh wait, everything's okay. Facebook is back Nothing to worry about after all...

Stay safe

[jared_7]

Yep, the soldiers are on TV now and they're definitely in charge in th capital. This can't be good. If the coup succeeds, it's military rule - at least for a while. If it fails, our glorious leader comes out stronger than ever. Will have to leave you there as I go answer some messages on FB.

Best of luck, mate.

[UGagain]

The Hizmet makes its move?

[morepork]

Rowan, be safe brother.

[rowan]

Thanks for all the well-wishes. I've heard it all tonight - military jets, choppers, gunfire, an extremely loud and emotional 1/45am Call to Prayer, and much laughter coming from the neighbours. Right now the streets are full of anti-coup protestors, summonsed by the president speaking to TV via his mobile phone. This in defiance of a 'curfew' supposedly imposed by the miilitary. Reports suggest the coup does not in fact have the full backing of the military and has been undertaken by a disgruntled faction. In that case, it's bound to fail, and thus play directly into the hands of the government. Many on Facebook are now speculating the government may even have been behind it. Anything's possible.

[rowan]

The plotters have bombed parliament and also killed 17 policemen in a separate firefight. I'm not in the capital but a while ago I heard an explosion, jets are still screaming around, and there are reports of soldiers opening fire on protestors trying to cross one of the bridges on foot. Crazy stuff! Crazy country. It doesn't appear that any high-ranking politician has been arrested, however, so I'm not sure what kind of coup this is supposed to be, exactly. Hopefully by morning it'll have blown over...

[cashead]

It appears the coup has failed. I doubt it'll end well for the plotters.

[rowan]

Finally got to sleep around 4am to the music of thunderous sonic booms - which seemed entirely pointless - as military jets screamed overhead. Woke up to the news the coup has failed. I suspect a faction within the military was misled into believing it could succeed where it never really stood a chance of doing so. Guess who comes out of it looking stronger than ever. TV images showing soldiers being arrested enmasse and the streets full of crowds celebrating the return of our glorious leader. I definitely smell a rat...

[rowan]

The arrested soldiers, who mostly look like kids, claim they were not aware they were part of a coup; just following orders. Many were killed and at least one beheaded by angry mobs.

Cui bono?

[Sandydragon]

The arrested soldiers, who mostly look like kids, claim they were not aware they were part of a coup; just following orders. Many were killed and at least one beheaded by angry mobs.

Cui bono?

They were probably told that someone else had launched a coup and they were protecting the state. Hence why some didn't fire at civilians approaching their tanks, it didn't fit the facts they had been given.

No coup is going to involve too many people in the planning, the opsec would be a disaster.

[rowan]

The arrested soldiers, who mostly look like kids, claim they were not aware they were part of a coup; just following orders. Many were killed and at least one beheaded by angry mobs.

Cui bono?

They were probably told that someone else had launched a coup and they were protecting the state. Hence why some didn't fire at civilians approaching their tanks, it didn't fit the facts they had been given.

No coup is going to involve too many people in the planning, the opsec would be a disaster.

Possible. But the story they're giving is that they had no idea a coup was underway at all; that they were just following orders. Some even claimed they thought it was a training drill. Meanwhile, our glorious leader has declared the horribly botched coup a 'gift from god,' arrested about 6000 of his ideological enemies, is on the TV all day, and is encouraging people to stay out on the streets to continue their anti-coup demonstrations (the same call is even being made from the minarets of the mosques, with use of especially loud speakers)! They've left the abandoned tanks out on the streets for us to look at too.

[Sandydragon]

Whether or not this was planned by the Turkish government to improve support (very risky strategy, plenty of potential for leaks), then they are certainly not wasting any time in removing anyone who seems to have an issue with the current administration.

The removal of so many judges is a curious one, I get why the military is likely to lose a fair number of people, but it would be interesting to know what justification there are for widespread culls in other professions.

I very much doubt that 6000 wish people were involved in the planning of this.

[cashead]

Whether or not this was planned by the Turkish government to improve support (very risky strategy, plenty of potential for leaks), then they are certainly not wasting any time in removing anyone who seems to have an issue with the current administration.

The removal of so many judges is a curious one, I get why the military is likely to lose a fair number of people, but it would be interesting to know what justification there are for widespread culls in other professions.

I very much doubt that 6000 wish people were involved in the planning of this.

If it were staged (and the outcome has been way too convenient for Erdogan for it to be outside the realms of possibility), it would have been a fairly small circle of those in the upper echelon, well-positioned to move however many young conscripts around as necessary as expendable cannon fodder. I'd imagine it would be just a few in the upper teens, at most, that were conspirators in this, if that were to turn out to be the case.

[rowan]

Probably we'll never know. It's possible they didn't plan it but allowed it to happen, knowing they could easily overcome it. The same conspiracy theories are with us over the string of terrorist attacks which helped consolidate Erdogan's support during last year's elections. Rather than agreeing to form a coalition after his party failed to gain an outright majority, he held out for a re-run election - which was conveniently preceded by a major terrorist attack at a Kurdish rally, killing mostly Kurdish people. Nationalists took to the streets in their droves, and his party subsequently gained the outright majority in the re-run election.

You should see the crowds outside now. I can here them from where I'm sitting. It's like Turkey just won the World Cup or something. Turkish flags galore for the past few days, with the odd abandoned tank left in the main streets proving popular as a backdrop for selfies.

Meanwhile, about 7500 people have now been arrested, mostly for alleged association with the Gulenists, a liberal Islamic religious and social organization led by former imam, writer and political figure Fethullah Gulen, who lives in exile in Pennsylvania. They operate madrasas throughout the Middle East and Africa, and have been accused of everything from collaborating with the CIA to wanting to recreate the Ottoman Empire.

Erdogan and Gulen used to be allies but fell out when the former came to power and set about seizing total control of the republic. This means removing Gulen's so-called parallel state - notably its strongholds within the judiciary, police & military. Not long before the coup he declared Gulen and his followers 'terrorists.' Now he is demanding Gulen's extradition from the US and discussing the possibility of bring back the death penalty.

It is believe the list of people arrested had already been prepared long before this horribly botched coup - carried out for the most part by youths who claim they were just following orders and didn't know what was going on. Our glorious leader was able to fly from the seaside resort of Bodrum directly into the nation's biggest city, without being fired upon, and land at its busiest airport which had been under siege barely an hour before.

While in flight he also managed to get onto live TV (via his iphone) during prime-time viewing hours to tell everyone to go out and protest against the coup. Mosques throughout the country were immediately commandeered for the purpose, while we also received personal messages from the president on our mobile phones beseeching us to go out and join the demonstration. Indeed, our glorious leader has already attributed this victory to the courage of the Turkish people.

[UGagain]

I've seen a lot of speculation about Erdogan being colour revolutioned for some time. This could well be his way of preempting their move.

[rowan]

Colour revolution never like to succeed in Turkey. Gezi Park showed us that. Relatively easily crushed, and thereafter ignored and largely forgotten, with no trace of a revival. The silent majority is often underestimated here. For those of us living in the center of Istanbul it is easy to be fooled into thinking that Turkey is merely an extension of Europe with a few mosques about. But the rest of Turkey isn't like that at all, and in fact still has much more in common with the Middle East itself. That's why the idea of Turkey joining the EU is so preposterous, and negotiations were probably never anything more than a carrot dangled to encourage co-operation and reform. This is why Erdogan has been successful. Democracy and Westernization in Turkey has only ever been skin-deep, and it required the military to enforce it and keep it in place. But the military has lost its power, evidently. Just how and when did that happen? My guess is after it refused to support Bush & Blair's invasion in Iraq. Ever since then, our glorious leader seems to have acquired almost super human powers.