Snap General Election called

[Which Tyler]

So -1,000 seats was worst case scenario.
Currently -1,041 with 8 councils still to declare

[Son of Mathonwy]

So -1,000 seats was worst case scenario.
Currently -1,041 with 8 councils still to declare

Love it. 1k was there to lower expectations . . .

. . . not low enough.

[Son of Mathonwy]

Braverman, Boris would be obvious candidates. Neither should be anywhere near no10.

Equally it could force an early election

I don't see it forcing an early election. There might be public outrage at the 22nd Tory Prime Minister since the last election, but the Conservatives have shown that they don't give a used fig for public outrage, especially when the choices are, "Give up power immediately" or "Give up power at the latest possible opportunity."

Bravermann, Boris, or Badenoch. All of them make me shudder.

Puja

It’s not certain or even likely but possible if enough Tory MPs think sod it let’s end the torture. They might abstain if a vote of no confidence were to be brought. Particularly if the party descends into some kind of civil war which is very likely I’d suggest if the right make a move on Sunak.

They may well turn on Sunak but no way are they voting for an early end to their gravy train.

[Sandydragon]

Hopefully it will be, and hopefully he wont

Really? The alternatives are so much worse and we still have to live in this country for the next year and a bit.

Puja

You're absolutely right of course, but I was thinking longer term about labour not just winning the next GE but winning with as big a margin as possible.

If Sunak is booted, and I doubt he will be for exactly the reason you've highlighted, anyone coming in would surely, even with the stratospheric standards of Tory fuckwittery, realise they need to appeal to voters and reign it all in a bit?

Maybe. Or maybe they just decide to double down and ensure their core support is up for voting by going on a culture wars rampage.

[Sandydragon]

I don't see it forcing an early election. There might be public outrage at the 22nd Tory Prime Minister since the last election, but the Conservatives have shown that they don't give a used fig for public outrage, especially when the choices are, "Give up power immediately" or "Give up power at the latest possible opportunity."

Bravermann, Boris, or Badenoch. All of them make me shudder.

Puja

It’s not certain or even likely but possible if enough Tory MPs think sod it let’s end the torture. They might abstain if a vote of no confidence were to be brought. Particularly if the party descends into some kind of civil war which is very likely I’d suggest if the right make a move on Sunak.

They may well turn on Sunak but no way are they voting for an early end to their gravy train.

Probably. Or they take the long view that losing heavily is better than a total wipeout. The odds are they will hunker down and pray for a miracle. But if a complete nutter were elected then the polls are only going to go one way and MPs know that.

It’s possible that Sunak, if he gets wind that there is a serious rebellion brewing, asks the king to dissolve parliament. Better to go to the country 15 points behind and lose 50-60 seats and then recover compared to an election where you are 30 points behind and are out of office for a generation.

[Sandydragon]

Sky news are predicting a minority Labour government if the local council results are projected into the general election. Labour will be 28 seats short and will need to rely on the Lib Dem’s, and maybe another party.

[Puja]

Sky news are predicting a minority Labour government if the local council results are projected into the general election. Labour will be 28 seats short and will need to rely on the Lib Dem’s, and maybe another party.

I don't think it'll track exactly - Lib Dems, Greens, and Independents always overperform in council elections and won't take as much of the Labour vote in a GE. I'm still expecting an outright Labour win, although the fact that it's even in question when the Conservatives are this weak is embarrassing.

I don't know what I'd prefer - a big Labour majority to repudiate the culture war facist bullshit running the Conservative party, plus there is the hope that Starmer might still have some principles hidden under the populist veneer and, with a big enough majority, might have the minerals to enact some of them. Or a minority government to repudiate the centrist bullshit running the Labour party and for the Lib Dems to have the leverage to force through electoral reform.

Puja

[fivepointer]

I'd prefer the Tories to be nowhere near government for the foreseeable future.

The sooner this disastrous, corrupt, negligent and incompetent rabble are booted out the better.

[Son of Mathonwy]

It’s not certain or even likely but possible if enough Tory MPs think sod it let’s end the torture. They might abstain if a vote of no confidence were to be brought. Particularly if the party descends into some kind of civil war which is very likely I’d suggest if the right make a move on Sunak.

They may well turn on Sunak but no way are they voting for an early end to their gravy train.

Probably. Or they take the long view that losing heavily is better than a total wipeout. The odds are they will hunker down and pray for a miracle. But if a complete nutter were elected then the polls are only going to go one way and MPs know that.

It’s possible that Sunak, if he gets wind that there is a serious rebellion brewing, asks the king to dissolve parliament. Better to go to the country 15 points behind and lose 50-60 seats and then recover compared to an election where you are 30 points behind and are out of office for a generation.

If they elect a complete nutter they'll swiftly replace him/her (probably her, given the current crop of nutters). (Obviously this would have to be a nutter who polled badly - that's all they actually care about.)

I don't see Sunak dissolving parliament early to prevent being deposed - even Johnson didn't have the brass neck for that.

[Son of Mathonwy]

Sky news are predicting a minority Labour government if the local council results are projected into the general election. Labour will be 28 seats short and will need to rely on the Lib Dem’s, and maybe another party.

I don't think it'll track exactly - Lib Dems, Greens, and Independents always overperform in council elections and won't take as much of the Labour vote in a GE. I'm still expecting an outright Labour win, although the fact that it's even in question when the Conservatives are this weak is embarrassing.

I don't know what I'd prefer - a big Labour majority to repudiate the culture war facist bullshit running the Conservative party, plus there is the hope that Starmer might still have some principles hidden under the populist veneer and, with a big enough majority, might have the minerals to enact some of them. Or a minority government to repudiate the centrist bullshit running the Labour party and for the Lib Dems to have the leverage to force through electoral reform.

Puja

Yeah, I feel the dilemma. However. . .

I think my favourite outcome is a crushing defeat for the Tories. I would love to see a more left wing Labour (not necessarily Corbynist but more in that direction) but I don't see that happening under almost any circumstances right now. So a massively weakened Conservative party would be the best.

In a coalition government I just don't see the Lib Dems being able to force through PR. I think Labour would rather hold another election than that. (I think a lot of them would rather be in opposition than that )

[Puja]

Sky news are predicting a minority Labour government if the local council results are projected into the general election. Labour will be 28 seats short and will need to rely on the Lib Dem’s, and maybe another party.

I don't think it'll track exactly - Lib Dems, Greens, and Independents always overperform in council elections and won't take as much of the Labour vote in a GE. I'm still expecting an outright Labour win, although the fact that it's even in question when the Conservatives are this weak is embarrassing.

I don't know what I'd prefer - a big Labour majority to repudiate the culture war facist bullshit running the Conservative party, plus there is the hope that Starmer might still have some principles hidden under the populist veneer and, with a big enough majority, might have the minerals to enact some of them. Or a minority government to repudiate the centrist bullshit running the Labour party and for the Lib Dems to have the leverage to force through electoral reform.

Puja

Yeah, I feel the dilemma. However. . .

I think my favourite outcome is a crushing defeat for the Tories. I would love to see a more left wing Labour (not necessarily Corbynist but more in that direction) but I don't see that happening under almost any circumstances right now. So a massively weakened Conservative party would be the best.

In a coalition government I just don't see the Lib Dems being able to force through PR. I think Labour would rather hold another election than that. (I think a lot of them would rather be in opposition than that )

I don't know - the Conference was very much in favour of it and Starmer actually went against the general Party sentiment in ruling it out. The MPs often hold very different opinions to the Party as a whole, but they do at least need to pay lipservice to following what they want.

Puja

[Which Tyler]

[Sandydragon]

They may well turn on Sunak but no way are they voting for an early end to their gravy train.

Probably. Or they take the long view that losing heavily is better than a total wipeout. The odds are they will hunker down and pray for a miracle. But if a complete nutter were elected then the polls are only going to go one way and MPs know that.

It’s possible that Sunak, if he gets wind that there is a serious rebellion brewing, asks the king to dissolve parliament. Better to go to the country 15 points behind and lose 50-60 seats and then recover compared to an election where you are 30 points behind and are out of office for a generation.

If they elect a complete nutter they'll swiftly replace him/her (probably her, given the current crop of nutters). (Obviously this would have to be a nutter who polled badly - that's all they actually care about.)

I don't see Sunak dissolving parliament early to prevent being deposed - even Johnson didn't have the brass neck for that.

Johnson threatened it and his MPs faced him down. If Sunak waits to the VONC then it’s too late, but if the whips (who seem to be on the ball) think the threat is serious then it would be logical for Sunak to call it early. Besides it’s not a total given Labour will win, they have a lot of ground to make up. It’s not entirely certain impossible that Sunak decides it’s worth a chance.

[Son of Mathonwy]

Probably. Or they take the long view that losing heavily is better than a total wipeout. The odds are they will hunker down and pray for a miracle. But if a complete nutter were elected then the polls are only going to go one way and MPs know that.

It’s possible that Sunak, if he gets wind that there is a serious rebellion brewing, asks the king to dissolve parliament. Better to go to the country 15 points behind and lose 50-60 seats and then recover compared to an election where you are 30 points behind and are out of office for a generation.

If they elect a complete nutter they'll swiftly replace him/her (probably her, given the current crop of nutters). (Obviously this would have to be a nutter who polled badly - that's all they actually care about.)

I don't see Sunak dissolving parliament early to prevent being deposed - even Johnson didn't have the brass neck for that.

Johnson threatened it and his MPs faced him down. If Sunak waits to the VONC then it’s too late, but if the whips (who seem to be on the ball) think the threat is serious then it would be logical for Sunak to call it early. Besides it’s not a total given Labour will win, they have a lot of ground to make up. It’s not entirely certain impossible that Sunak decides it’s worth a chance.

Well, I hope he does.

However, my rule of thumb is that if there's something I'd like then it's something the Tories ain't gonna do.

[Puja]

Jesus fuck: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... riam-cates

Not a million miles away from Kinder, Küche, Kirche.

And, as I go on twitter to look at something unrelated, this is what's apparently trending in the UK:

capture.png

Puja

[morepork]

Jesus fuck: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... riam-cates

Not a million miles away from Kinder, Küche, Kirche.

And, as I go on twitter to look at something unrelated, this is what's apparently trending in the UK:
capture.png

Puja

Replacement theory nonsense perpetuated by inbred parasites. It must be hard to promote anti-immigration and a desire to saturate the workforce with low wage slaves. A snail crawling across a razor blade. It's my dream, it's my nightmare. I'm so sick and tired of the mythical diversity boogeyman being cynically harnessed for thee purpose of resuscitating the corpse of trickle down theory. It's high time neoliberal economic theory was taken out the back and shot.

[Which Tyler]

Yep, that's the problem with this country in a nutshell, our young women have too much education, access to too many facts, and too much leeway to use their brains...

They just need to get back to knowing their place, (and only their place); toiling on a fruit farm for less than minimum wage and probably illegal work conditions (but don't worry, they'll be legal and then some soon); and popping out babies in the off-season.

Erm...

[Puja]

Jesus fuck: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... riam-cates

Not a million miles away from Kinder, Küche, Kirche.

And, as I go on twitter to look at something unrelated, this is what's apparently trending in the UK:
capture.png

Puja

Replacement theory nonsense perpetuated by inbred parasites. It must be hard to promote anti-immigration and a desire to saturate the workforce with low wage slaves. A snail crawling across a razor blade. It's my dream, it's my nightmare. I'm so sick and tired of the mythical diversity boogeyman being cynically harnessed for thee purpose of resuscitating the corpse of trickle down theory. It's high time neoliberal economic theory was taken out the back and shot.

The bit about, "We shouldn't have an economy that runs on importing underpriced foreign labour from poor countries to do shit jobs," is a valid concern and one which I share, but the answer to that is more about fair wages and valuing workers than it is about demonising Jonny Foreigner.

The bit that baffles me is that Bravermann was joining in with the "low birth-rate is the biggest crisis facing Britain and the western world" bullshit. I can sort of understand the rest of her bullshit from her very privileged position of private school and wealth, but Suella, come on, really - you surely must be aware that when that crowd talk about wanting a higher birth rate, they're only interested in a particular hue of British babies, and when they talk about a "threat to Britain", they're including you in that.

Puja

[morepork]

They want high unemployment and fierce, feral competition for low wages. In their minds, wages are the biggest driver of inflation. But just for them. They are parasites enabled by adherence to a flawed ideology out of touch with reality. I'm so fucking sick of it all. All propped up by corporate welfare at workers expense. Maybe consider altruism as an alternative to this feudal nightmare. Jesus titty fucking christ.

[Son of Mathonwy]

NatCon is scary.

Still, hopefully it will help the Tories to descend into collective madness once they are deposed.

[Son of Mathonwy]

Jesus fuck: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... riam-cates

Not a million miles away from Kinder, Küche, Kirche.

And, as I go on twitter to look at something unrelated, this is what's apparently trending in the UK:
capture.png

Puja

As mentioned in that article and elsewhere, Rees-Mogg admits that voter-ID legislation was an attempt to gerrymander the vote in favour of his party.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-65599380
https://news.sky.com/story/jacob-rees-m ... s-12881602

Who would have thunk it??

Nice ammunition for Labour though, from here to the next election - Tories admit they changed the rules in order to boost their vote share.

[Puja]

Jesus fuck: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... riam-cates

Not a million miles away from Kinder, Küche, Kirche.

And, as I go on twitter to look at something unrelated, this is what's apparently trending in the UK:
capture.png

Puja

As mentioned in that article and elsewhere, Rees-Mogg admits that voter-ID legislation was an attempt to gerrymander the vote in favour of his party.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-65599380
https://news.sky.com/story/jacob-rees-m ... s-12881602

Who would have thunk it??

Nice ammunition for Labour though, from here to the next election - Tories admit they changed the rules in order to boost their vote share.

I love how he's using it to try and excuse the local elections results. "It wasn't that everyone hated us, it's that voter ID stopped our voters." Yeah, sure, right, I absolutely believe that older, richer voters are less likely to have ID than younger poorer voters, especially considering the list included Over 60s bus pass/blue badges/expired driving licences and excluded Young Persons' Rail Card or any student cards. That's not to mention the generational divide between those who habitually carry a full purse/wallet of ID and those who just use a phone and contactless.

Clearly it was all the Voter ID fault for losing over a thousand councillors. Nothing to do with the party being a garbage fire.

Puja

[Sandydragon]

NatCon is scary.

Still, hopefully it will help the Tories to descend into collective madness once they are deposed.

The Tea Party comes to the UK…….

[Which Tyler]

"two lifelong Tories, sitting in the NatCon auditorium in-between speakers*

"Oh my god. Did she really just say that?"

"tsk. She did. FFS. "

"So, um, National Conservatism..."

"What about it?"

"Well... I mean... It's just.... Well, don't you think it sounds a little bit like National Socialism?

"--- "

"Oh, shit. Are we those two blokes in that Mitchell & Webb sketch?"

[Son of Mathonwy]

Jesus fuck: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... riam-cates

Not a million miles away from Kinder, Küche, Kirche.

And, as I go on twitter to look at something unrelated, this is what's apparently trending in the UK:
capture.png

Puja

As mentioned in that article and elsewhere, Rees-Mogg admits that voter-ID legislation was an attempt to gerrymander the vote in favour of his party.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-65599380
https://news.sky.com/story/jacob-rees-m ... s-12881602

Who would have thunk it??

Nice ammunition for Labour though, from here to the next election - Tories admit they changed the rules in order to boost their vote share.

I love how he's using it to try and excuse the local elections results. "It wasn't that everyone hated us, it's that voter ID stopped our voters." Yeah, sure, right, I absolutely believe that older, richer voters are less likely to have ID than younger poorer voters, especially considering the list included Over 60s bus pass/blue badges/expired driving licences and excluded Young Persons' Rail Card or any student cards. That's not to mention the generational divide between those who habitually carry a full purse/wallet of ID and those who just use a phone and contactless.

Clearly it was all the Voter ID fault for losing over a thousand councillors. Nothing to do with the party being a garbage fire.

Puja

Agreed. I expect that the voter ID law did boost their vote (for the reasons you give) despite what he said. And if it didn't, they'll change it.