If Russia invades Ukraine (more)...

[Sandydragon]

Prigozhin is publicly telling Russian people that the war in Ukraine is based on a lie. Even if Putin sees this threat off, he will be hugely weakened.

[Puja]

Putin's address to the nation from earlier this morning
http://special.kremlin.ru/events/presid ... ipts/71496

I appeal to the citizens of Russia, to the personnel of the Armed Forces, law enforcement agencies and special services, to the soldiers and commanders who are now fighting in their combat positions, repulsing enemy attacks, doing it heroically - I know, I spoke to the commanders of all directions again last night. I also appeal to those who, by deceit or threats, were dragged into a criminal adventure, pushed onto the path of a serious crime - an armed rebellion.

Russia today is waging a hard fight for its future, repelling the aggression of neo-Nazis and their masters. Virtually the entire military, economic and information machine of the West is directed against us. We are fighting for the life and safety of our people, for our sovereignty and independence. For the right to be and remain Russia - a state with a thousand-year history.

This battle, when the fate of our people is being decided, requires the unification of all forces, unity, consolidation and responsibility. When everything that weakens us must be thrown aside, any strife that our external enemies can and use to undermine us from within.

And therefore, the actions that split our unity are, in fact, apostasy from our people, from our comrades-in-arms, who are now fighting at the front. This is a stab in the back of our country and our people.

It was such a blow that was dealt to Russia in 1917, when the country was waging the First World War. But the victory was stolen from her. Intrigues, squabbles, politicking behind the backs of the army and the people turned into the greatest shock, the destruction of the army and the collapse of the state, the loss of vast territories. As a result, the tragedy of the civil war.

Russians killed Russians, brothers - brothers, and all sorts of political adventurers and foreign forces, who divided the country, tore it apart, took selfish gain.

We won't let this happen again. We will protect both our people and our statehood from any threats. Including - from internal betrayal.

And what we are faced with is precisely a betrayal. Exorbitant ambitions and personal interests led to treason. To betray our country, our people, and the cause for which, side by side with our other units and subunits, the soldiers and commanders of the Wagner group fought and died. The heroes who liberated Soledar and Artyomovsk, the cities and towns of Donbass, fought and gave their lives for Novorossia, for the unity of the Russian world. Their name and glory were also betrayed by those who are trying to organize a rebellion, pushing the country towards anarchy and fratricide. To defeat, in the end, and surrender.

I repeat, any internal turmoil is a deadly threat to our statehood, to us as a nation. This is a blow to Russia, to our people. And our actions to protect the Fatherland from such a threat will be tough. All those who deliberately embarked on the path of betrayal, who prepared an armed rebellion, embarked on the path of blackmail and terrorist methods, will suffer inevitable punishment, will answer both before the law and before our people.

The Armed Forces and other government agencies have received the necessary orders, and additional antiterrorist measures are now being introduced in Moscow, the Moscow Region and a number of other regions. Decisive actions will also be taken to stabilize the situation in Rostov-on-Don. It remains difficult; in fact, the work of civil and military authorities is blocked.

As the President of Russia and Supreme Commander-in-Chief, as a citizen of Russia, I will do everything to defend the country, to protect the constitutional order, the lives, security and freedom of citizens.

The one who organized and prepared the military rebellion, who raised arms against his comrades-in-arms, betrayed Russia. And they will answer for it. And I urge those who are being dragged into this crime not to make a fatal and tragic, unique mistake, to make the only right choice - to stop participating in criminal acts.

I believe that we will preserve and defend what is dear and sacred to us, and together with our Motherland we will overcome any trials, we will become even stronger.

Is Putin actually choosing to identify himself with the Tsar? I mean, it's not inaccurate, but it feels kinda on the nose! I had thought the November Revolution was still venerated in Russia and the Tsar was seen as the bad guy to the average Russian - was I wrong?

Puja

[Zhivago]

Wagner press agency:

The trigger of the Civil War pulled by Pipa [Putin]. Instead of sending one or two degenerates into retirement, he gave the order to neutralize the most combat-ready unit in Russia. The life of one or two traitors was placed above 25,000 heroes. Who is evil in this conflict is already obvious. The victory will be for PMC "Wagner".

[Zhivago]

Is Putin actually choosing to identify himself with the Tsar? I mean, it's not inaccurate, but it feels kinda on the nose! I had thought the November Revolution was still venerated in Russia and the Tsar was seen as the bad guy to the average Russian - was I wrong?

Puja

Putin isn't a communist. He is an old school Russian Imperialist, and he absolutely identifies with the tsars, most likely Peter the Great in his mind. Hence his desire to rebuild the Russian Empire.

I mean have you seen how the oligarchs live? They all love that gaudy golden Rococo stuff.

[Sandydragon]

Is Putin actually choosing to identify himself with the Tsar? I mean, it's not inaccurate, but it feels kinda on the nose! I had thought the November Revolution was still venerated in Russia and the Tsar was seen as the bad guy to the average Russian - was I wrong?

Puja

Putin isn't a communist. He is an old school Russian Imperialist, and he absolutely identifies with the tsars, most likely Peter the Great in his mind. Hence his desire to rebuild the Russian Empire.

I mean have you seen how the oligarchs live? They all love that gaudy golden Rococo stuff.

Fair play, the old Soviet leaders liked their creature comforts as well, but there’s more money in Russia today to siphon off.

Some people look at the Soviet unions foreign policy as if it were unique. But it’s been the same Russian policy for centuries. Conquer or control the near abroad and ensure Russia is respected in the wider world.

[Sandydragon]

Is this a coup? What is Prigozhin doing in Russia? https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-66006880

Interesting and some useful context. Wagner probably doesn’t have enough strength to take Moscow unless a lot of other people and more importantly troops join him.

[Sandydragon]

Russian troops in Voronezh have allegedly surrendered to Wagner forces. Momentum feels like it’s with Wagner at the moment, but that can change.

[Puja]

[Zhivago]

[Which Tyler]

[Puja]

In fairness, Putin's stated aim in invading Ukraine was to depose fascists who were in charge of a Eastern European country, so he can still spin this as being a success of the Special Military Operation. Bonus points if he takes the Belarusian fascist down too on his way out.

Puja

[paddy no 11]

Would prizghonin be a lesser of 2 evils versus vlad and kadyrov? Or worse if he actually whipped the Russian military into shape?

[Sandydragon]

Opinion from Sky News

Ukraine may be hoping for Putin's demise - but his successors are even worse
After a year and a half of unrelenting gloom, finally news for Ukrainians to celebrate: open conflict between their enemies and the prospect of much more, writes Sky's international affairs editor Dominic Waghorn.
Ukrainians have always predicted this war would be the end of Vladimir Putin. Last year their head of military intelligence told Sky News it would finish him and the unity of the Russian Federation.
The country's national security chief Oleksiy Danilov today said the Wagner mutiny means the "process of ruining Russia has begun. War started inside Russia and it will end inside Russia".
Wagner’s head Yevgeny Prigozhin has said the war effort goes on even though he has, it seems, taken control of one of its key headquarters in Rostov-on-Don.
But the impact of red on red fighting back home on Russian soldiers in trenches facing a Ukrainian counteroffensive can only be guessed at.
Russian troops have complained bitterly their government has armed and trained them poorly. They have died in their tens of thousands, many reportedly shot by their own side. Among those fighting on, morale is likely to be low.
It remains to be seen whether they remain loyal to the Kremlin or can be seduced by Prigozhin to switch.
It is early days and nothing is quite what it seems in Russia but we can say for sure that this will undermine Russia's war effort, not least because thousands of its most effective fighters in the Wagner group appear to have left the theatre of war to launch an armed rebellion on home soil.
Long term the outlook may not be so encouraging. Yes, Putin is most likely terminally weakened by this. The war that he started and was meant to last a few weeks is mutating into a civil conflict.
If he is toppled his most likely successors are even more hardline than him. They are likely to continue the war if they can.
Equally, Prigozhin is a brutal volatile man who actually knows how to wage a war and whose supporters are battle-hardened and full of hatred for Ukraine. He would not be an easy enemy for Ukraine if he were to succeed Putin - although that seems against the odds for now.
Ukrainians will be hoping for a protracted period of internal conflict that fatally undermines Russia's ability to fight this war or forces whoever ends up in charge in Moscow to bring it to an end.

[Galfon]

Reports of Lukashenko fleeing to Turkey, Putin plane turned back from Kazakhstan - what the flying f**k, literally.
(unsubstantiated, obvs..)

[Mellsblue]

The bugger question is whether this is just Wagner

This is a glorious autocorrect as it’s seems Putin may well be buggered.

[Zhivago]

Preparing to lose Moscow. Surreal

[Mellsblue]

Well, there’s always the risk that if you buy a dog and make it aggressive it will bite you. Wagner vs Russia is a race to the bottom,
But what an opportunity for the Ukrainians. I’d be ramping up the propaganda and looking hard for troop redeployments I could exploit. I don’t think Wagner can militarily hold out that long, the Russian army has more heavy equipment, but it may need to redeploy a lot of that from Ukraine if the reports from Rostov are correct.

The bugger question is whether this is just Wagner or if there’s wider support for the Chef. Of this is the start of an anti Putin push and some units of the Russian army join Wagner then this is about to get very serious for Putin.

I think we will see some Russian military units defecting to Prigozhin/Wagner. This has the potential to turn into a proper civil war.

Agreed. Which is an outcome that isn’t entirely hopeful given that Progozhin is probably worse than Putin and this is a country with lots of nukes.

Hopefully Ukraine can capitalise and push Russians out and then join NATO.

Better the devil you know…

[Zhivago]

[Mellsblue]

The final sentence in the second point seems pretty important.

[Sandydragon]

Putin absolutely has the muscle to stop Wagner, provided that his army remains loyal, but does he have the nerve?

Prigozin with nukes is not a happy thought

[Puja]

Would prizghonin be a lesser of 2 evils versus vlad and kadyrov? Or worse if he actually whipped the Russian military into shape?

Debateable. I think he's a worse person to have in charge just generally, but the question would remain whether he has the charisma and leverage to keep the same level of power and unmitigated control that Putin enjoys. Kadyrov and Chechnya would certainly rebel against him and there'd be other regions and powerbrokers that, while not openly seceding, would certainly be mutinous.

I don't know there is a lesser of evils here - just a selection of different ones.

Puja

[Mellsblue]

This chap normally has his finger on the pulse:

https://samf.substack.com/p/prigozhins- ... dium=email

[Sandydragon]

Would prizghonin be a lesser of 2 evils versus vlad and kadyrov? Or worse if he actually whipped the Russian military into shape?

Debateable. I think he's a worse person to have in charge just generally, but the question would remain whether he has the charisma and leverage to keep the same level of power and unmitigated control that Putin enjoys. Kadyrov and Chechnya would certainly rebel against him and there'd be other regions and powerbrokers that, while not openly seceding, would certainly be mutinous.

I don't know there is a lesser of evils here - just a selection of different ones.

Puja

Kadyrov wont accept a change, so that’s one mini civil war at least, assuming Putin doesn’t hang on in there of course.

[Sandydragon]

This chap normally has his finger on the pulse:

https://samf.substack.com/p/prigozhins- ... dium=email

Wouldn’t disagree with any of that analysis. Putin has a lot going on his favour, but if he panics and flees then a chan he of leadership is assured. I’d suggest that one of the following is possible.

Wagner troops surrender and Prigozhin claims it’s all a big mistake. Putin accepts that, press gangs the Wagner troops into the regular military and in 6 months time Prigozin has a freak accident incoming a balcony and that’s that. Putin slightly weakened but not critically. Unless Wagner troops desert the cause en masse then I’d suggest this is unlikely.

Wagner troops engage Russian regulars in force. Their advance on Moscow bogs down and more Russian troops arrive over time. Wagner is defeated and Progozhin is arrested, found guilty of treason and meets a sticky end. This weakens Putin significantly and allows the Ukrainians to take advantage significantly. This feels quite likely of Prigozhin can’t win quickly.

Wagner troops make a rapid dash for Moscow. Regular Russian troops are overwhelmed, or otherwise can’t prevent a scrap in the capital between the various ceremonial troops and militias vs Wagner. I’d bet on Wagner at this point and it’s possible Putin flees or is captured. Kadyrov marches again Prigozhin and the regular Russian military support the new leadership against the Chechens. Maybe not full scale civil war but a very nasty scrap that gives Ukraine time and space to advance.

Final option, there’s a military clash south of Moscow which isn’t decisive. Regular Russian troops are split and some back Wagner. At this point it’s a full scale civil war.

Will Putin hold his nerve? How many Russian troops will need to be withdrawn from Ukraine to defeat this mutiny? Can Prigozin get support from the regular military? How will Russians on the front line react to this (the Ukrainians have to make propaganda hay with this)?

So many variables but the next 24-48 hours are just crucial.

[Sandydragon]

More flights leaving Moscow without transponders. Probably a lot of those are oligarchs legging it with gold bullion and mistresses galore. But also a report of an ex presidential family, assume Yeltsins, deciding to leave too. Not a good look for Putin and could indicate that confidence in his regime is running out