If Russia invades Ukraine (more)...

[Sandydragon]

BBC news interviewing a British MP who is suggesting that Putin has fled the Kremlin. Could just be bollocks to spread a useful rumour.

[Which Tyler]

Biggest question for me is where's Russia air force?
As far as I'm aware, Wagner doesn't have one - Russia's hasn't done much in Ukraine, and they wouldn't take long to reach and hit the Wagner column once outside of cities.

[Mellsblue]

Also, this has huge implications in Africa. Wagner have become huge in delivering security in return for natural resource exploitation. If Wagner is shut down that might become sticky in a number of places.

Yep, was discussing this with the long suffering Mrs Mellsblue earlier. It could leave a huge and volatile vacuum.

My wife is also suffering today. She has just pointedly put her headphones on to listen to a podcast.

Ha! My wife enjoys the chat. Her degree was Politics and IR.

[Which Tyler]

BBC news interviewing a British MP who is suggesting that Putin has fled the Kremlin. Could just be bollocks to spread a useful rumour.

Seems to be a lot of planes leaving Moscow without transponders on - lots of rumours.
Billionaires leaving with Bullion, Medvedev getting out of dodge, Putin being turned away by Kazakhstan, Putin bailing out to St Petersburg... It's just all f***ed with no real knowledge of anything.

[Which Tyler]

Ha! My wife enjoys the chat. Her degree was Politics and IR.

Mine does not, and is grateful for the rugby distracting me

[Which Tyler]

Not something I had even thought of.
I preferred not thinking about it.

[Sandydragon]

Biggest question for me is where's Russia air force?
As far as I'm aware, Wagner doesn't have one - Russia's hasn't done much in Ukraine, and they wouldn't take long to reach and hit the Wagner column once outside of cities.

So the Wagner column has air defence and there have been some attacks reported. But I agree, the Russian air force should be able to whittle the column down well before it reaches Moscow. Are the regular forces watching and waiting? Has Prigozhin done a deal for them to stay out of it?

[Sandydragon]

Not something I had even thought of.
I preferred not thinking about it.

They used to have a heavy armoured division near Moscow to repel and coup attempts, so where is that? If it’s been redeployed over the last few years then I can’t see the Moscow militia and various paramilitary police units repelling armour

[Zhivago]

[Zhivago]

Biggest question for me is where's Russia air force?
As far as I'm aware, Wagner doesn't have one - Russia's hasn't done much in Ukraine, and they wouldn't take long to reach and hit the Wagner column once outside of cities.

Russian ground-to-air air defence is rather capable, and in Wagner's hands also. 7 shot down today.

[Sandydragon]

Shit or bust in the next 12 hours or so based on to at rate if advance

[Sandydragon]

An option i suppose for Putin is to fall back to St Petersburg, rally loyal forces and fight back. But that assumes forces want to be rallied behind him

[Puja]

Biggest question for me is where's Russia air force?
As far as I'm aware, Wagner doesn't have one - Russia's hasn't done much in Ukraine, and they wouldn't take long to reach and hit the Wagner column once outside of cities.

Russian ground-to-air air defence is rather capable, and in Wagner's hands also. 7 shot down today.

Considering that it's been Russia's helicopters that've been causing the Ukranian advance so much grief by taking on the MBTs, it's a huge boost for them to be elsewhere (and being shot down right now). I would be surprised if Ukraine weren't currently gathering every single one of their reserve Western-armed battle groups and planning an Abrams-headed charge towards Melitopol for the minute the sun sets and their night-vision comes into play.

Puja

[Which Tyler]

And allegedly, just like that, the coup is off.

Today has been... strange

[Galfon]

Can't see the Wagnerites making their way to Russia from Syria, Africa etc to assist in the 'coup' , turning back just yet.
Meanwhile Ukr forces have reportedly ferried tanks over the Dnieper today and fresh fighting ongoing.
Keeping R. morale up will be even tougher now.
Sounds like YP wants a bloodless coup..

[Sandydragon]

Not a bang but a whimper.

Prigozhin has blinked. But whilst Putin remains in post but less in charge than he was. And what do they do with Wagner now? Russian morale at the front can only shaken.

[Puja]

Wild. Makes absolutely no sense to me. Even if he's worried that it's not going well enough, surely you can't stop a coup halfway and expect to survive? You come for the king, you'd best not miss, etc.

Puja

[Sandydragon]

Wild. Makes absolutely no sense to me. Even if he's worried that it's not going well enough, surely you can't stop a coup halfway and expect to survive? You come for the king, you'd best not miss, etc.

Puja

Promise of clemency for Wagner troops apparently. Although Prigozin is surely a dead man walking.

I think he realised that the army wasn’t going to join him and that he chances were increasingly remote so decided to run back before things got totally out of hand.

[Which Tyler]

​Jeff Prigozhin?

[Zhivago]

Wild. Makes absolutely no sense to me. Even if he's worried that it's not going well enough, surely you can't stop a coup halfway and expect to survive? You come for the king, you'd best not miss, etc.

Puja

It is insane.

[Sandydragon]

Prigozin knows he has fucked up here. So there’s a few options for the future.

Putin decides to be unforgiving. Wagner closes ranks and it’s a tense stand-off between thousands of armed men near the Ukrainian border.

Putin decides to be somewhat forgiving of the rank and file and Wagner give up Prigozin. The latter is then fucked good and proper. Wagner rank and file get some kind of assimilation into the Russian army or are disbanded.

Putin pretends to let bygones be bygones and things carry on as normal. In 6 months Prigozin has an unforeseen tragic accident.

If Prigozin thinks he’s dead anyway then he might decide just to resist. But he must know now that he’s in deep shit. I think Putin will want to focus the military attention on Ukraine again ASAP which might mean that Putin suggest Prigozin steps down and goes into luxurious exile somewhere.

But this is a classic example of going off half cocked without properly preparing.

[Which Tyler]

I can only think they expected more of the Russian military to join them, rather than just stand aside.

Jeff Prigozhin had better steer clear of windows for a while now - assuming the FSB will be that subtle in his case.

[Sandydragon]

BBC reporting that Putin is being conciliatory towards the Wagner fighters and Prigozin is going to move to Belarus. Perhaps that was the important intervention by the dictator there, giving Prigozin a way out. Although if I were him then I wouldn’t be sleeping soundly again

[Son of Mathonwy]

Wild. Makes absolutely no sense to me. Even if he's worried that it's not going well enough, surely you can't stop a coup halfway and expect to survive? You come for the king, you'd best not miss, etc.

Puja

It is insane.

When you play the game of thrones, you win or you die.

You can't take back a march on Moscow.

Putin is considerably weakened but Prigozin is not long for this world.

[Sandydragon]

Wild. Makes absolutely no sense to me. Even if he's worried that it's not going well enough, surely you can't stop a coup halfway and expect to survive? You come for the king, you'd best not miss, etc.

Puja

It is insane.

When you play the game of thrones, you win or you die.

You can't take back a march on Moscow.

Putin is considerably weakened but Prigozin is not long for this world.

Some media have the opinion that the fel smells very fishy, perhaps suggesting that the whole thing was stage managed. If so, who benefits? Not Putin who has been hugely undermined. Not the Russian military who didn’t do a lot to stop the progress of the convoy north. And why would Putin make a public speech denouncing the mutineers as traitors?

The only explanation that makes sense is that Prigozhin has vet estimated his support and drew back when it became clear he was about to cross a huge red line. Putin was merciful because he has to be in order to peel away the Wagner fighters. Prigozhin is off to Belarus, but we don’t know in what capacity.

I suppose we can only hope that Prigozhins revelation that the basis of the special military operation was just bullshit has some impact.