Looking towards Samoa and QFs

[Stom]

It’s going to be weird with a two week break now. As much as he doesn’t deserve it I’d start Billy with Curry and Lawes just to see if he can find any form at all. I’d do the same with Sink. Mitchell has to play 9, and it would be with Ford, Manu and Matchant for me. Arundell and May on the wings with Smith given another run at fullback. If we’re going to try it then fuck it! If not, Steward. I’d probably start Martin with Itoje and bring Chessum on to keep his reintroduction controlled. I’d be tempted to start Dan too, in one sense to wrap George up a bit, but to give him game time more than anything.

So something like:

Genge
Dan
Sinckler
Itoje
Martin
Lawes (c)
Curry
Vunipola
Mitchell
Ford
May
Tuilagi
Marchant
Arundell
Smith

Marler
George
Stuart
Chessum
Earl
Youngs or Care. It’s like picking from stage four cancer or a fatal heart attack!
Farrell
Lawrence

That's pretty much what I'd go for. But with Farrell on the bench, there's no need for centre cover and we can have a wing/FB there instead. So Steward incase Smith struggles, and so we can shift Smith to the wing to try him there, too

[morepork]

SB's master plan of letting entropy run its course may yet throw up a useful team.

[16th man]

Looking very much like it's going to be Fiji.

[Oakboy]

Looking very much like it's going to be Fiji.

Mmm, thank goodness we dumped Jones. I read that he's done a web interview with Japan to take over. If that's true it is staggering. His sales pitch continues to work it would seem. How can anyone still be taken in by him? The Aussie fans certainly made their feelings known.

[fivepointer]

Yeah the decision to sack Jones looks to have been the right one (albeit one that should have been made a year before). He's made a real pigs ear out of the Australian WC campaign.

Fiji is going to be a challenge in the QF.

For Samoa we will put out our 1st choice team - or SB's preferred team, which will include Farrell, likely at 12. Dont think the pack will change but maybe there'll be a place for Arundell.

[Mikey Brown]

I don’t particularly see this as supporting the decision to be honest. It still feels like the correct decision was either keep him on or ditch him far earlier. Australian ineptitude doesn’t cancel out our own.

Hopefully Borthwick can ride this out without taking too much damage and get a better team to coaches in post World Cup. For now let’s just see if we can actually beat Fiji ourselves.

[Carter1989]

I don’t particularly see this as supporting the decision to be honest. It still feels like the correct decision was either keep him on or ditch him far earlier. Australian ineptitude doesn’t cancel out our own.

Hopefully Borthwick can ride this out without taking too much damage and get a better team to coaches in post World Cup. For now let’s just see if we can actually beat Fiji ourselves.

I actually think we’re improving rapidly.

[Puja]

I don’t particularly see this as supporting the decision to be honest. It still feels like the correct decision was either keep him on or ditch him far earlier. Australian ineptitude doesn’t cancel out our own.

Hopefully Borthwick can ride this out without taking too much damage and get a better team to coaches in post World Cup. For now let’s just see if we can actually beat Fiji ourselves.

So, I raised this in the predictions thread (where I've so far picked every game correctly apart from SA vs Scotland, I'd like to note) that if we played Fiji in the quarter finals and won, then "The EMB overflows with arguments about whether reaching the semis makes for a pass-mark for Steep Benchmarks or whether it's "devalued" by getting to go through Fiji in the quarters."

Obviously sentiment has changed a little bit, as I wrote it before the warm-up games, back in the halcyon days where beating Fiji would be a formality and the suggestion of actually losing to them was a bit silly (and I picked them to beat Australia as a shock, rather than because they comfortably outplayed them), but what is the current thinking? If Serious Ballkicking does take us to a semi-final (and let's not count our chickens on that) through beating Arg, Japan, Samoa, and Fiji, would we consider it a decent enough result, given the circumstances, or would there be grumbling that we should've done better?

Puja

[loudnconfident]

Getting to the Semis is an achievement - no matter how favourable the draw. I also think Fiji will be beatable, if we play sensibly (and Simone Beauvoir's teams will play sensibly, if nothing else.) Do Fiji have a decent line-out?...

[p/d]

Coming into the WC I would have taken a semi spot, and would have happily applauded young Shirley Ballas........... meeting Fiji in the QF doesn't change that.

[Oakboy]

Coming into the WC I would have taken a semi spot, and would have happily applauded young Shirley Ballas........... meeting Fiji in the QF doesn't change that.

Can't argue with that. It's interesting to reflect on Soap Box's original announcement that we weren't good at anything. I wonder how he'd describe the way things are now, possibly two games away from a QF v Fiji, a team we lost to so recently.

Despite his results since taking over, what really counts is where we are at now compared to what he inherited.

3/3 at the RWC is a damned sight better than I feared during the warm-ups. Ugly wins will do.

[p/d]

Coming into the WC I would have taken a semi spot, and would have happily applauded young Shirley Ballas........... meeting Fiji in the QF doesn't change that.

Can't argue with that. It's interesting to reflect on Soap Box's original announcement that we weren't good at anything. I wonder how he'd describe the way things are now, possibly two games away from a QF v Fiji, a team we lost to so recently.

Despite his results since taking over, what really counts is where we are at now compared to what he inherited.

3/3 at the RWC is a damned sight better than I feared during the warm-ups. Ugly wins will do.

That's the crux for me. I'm far from happy with his selections nor the style of play he 'potentially' has opted for, as such wins become an absolute minimum. He (they) have delivered on that, as the table attests to but lose in QF though, then.....................

[Mikey Brown]

Of course it’s good to make the semis, but it seems so completely arbitrary to act like the opposition isn’t the important marker in those wins.

Those 4 games are like a summer test series we’d hope to win with an experimental side while the Lions are on or something.

[TheDasher]

1. Marler
2. Dan
3. Stuart
4. Chessum
5. Itoje
6. Lawes
7. Curry
8. Earl
9. Mitchell
10. Ford
11. Arundell
12. Manu
13. Marchant
14. Steward
15. Smith

George, Genge, Sinckler, Martin, Ludlam, Youngs, Farrell, Lawrence

Experiment with the backline a bit, keep George out the firing line up front. Get Curry some game time.

I think I'd be going with that back three. I think there's some genuine merit in that to be honest. Unfortunately, he will pick Farrell. Which means, Ford, Farrell, Manu. But I'm with you on the back three.

[Scrumhead]

Right now I think it’s important for us to keep momentum with a decent win against Samoa. I’m not expecting an easy ride, but if we win that and go in to the QFs with 4/4 in the pool, we’ll be putting ourselves in a very decent position.

If it is Fiji as expected, I don’t know how much we can read into our last meeting. I’d like to think we’ll be in a better place than we were at our lowest point on a losing streak and I think the loss of Muntz will be more keenly felt in a knock out game.

[FKAS]

Right now I think it’s important for us to keep momentum with a decent win against Samoa. I’m not expecting an easy ride, but if we win that and go in to the QFs with 4/4 in the pool, we’ll be putting ourselves in a very decent position.

If it is Fiji as expected, I don’t know how much we can read into our last meeting. I’d like to think we’ll be in a better place than we were at our lowest point on a losing streak and I think the loss of Muntz will be more keenly felt in a knock out game.

Depends whether that young scrum half they have is fit or not. His place kicking skills made a big difference Vs Australia.

[Scrumhead]

Sure, but it’s not just place kicking. Muntz’s game management gave them a different dimension thst I’m not sure Tela has replaced.

I’m not dismissing the threat they’d pose. I’m simply saying that the warm up game feels like a very different set of circumstances for both sides.

[Oakboy]

Sure, but it’s not just place kicking. Muntz’s game management gave them a different dimension thst I’m not sure Tela has replaced.

I’m not dismissing the threat they’d pose. I’m simply saying that the warm up game feels like a very different set of circumstances for both sides.

I hope there is a case for Fiji having peaked against us in the warm-up match whereas we have improved, certainly in terms of becoming harder to beat. As ever, though, preparation and confidence are key. SB should definitely be playing HIS top XV in the last group match with that in mind.

[Which Tyler]

I posted this before the warm-ups.
Obviously, the warm-ups left me more unhappy than I expected beforehand, but I think it still stands.

Taking the RFU out of the equation, what (do we think) our red lines for him are?
So ahead of the RWC, what would we consider catastrophe, unacceptable, acceptable, or better than expected?

For me, he's now got the coaches he wanted, and the players he wants; and he's had them in camp for 6-8 weeks and counting, will be 15 weeks by the time the RWC starts.
The warm-ups are just that, they're pre-season matches with international teams, not club; so I'm trying not to read too much into them.
Par at the RWC, given the draw, is a losing semi-final.

If we drop out in the pool stages, then I'll probably be calling for his head.
If we lose the QF, having failed to perform well, I may well be calling for his head.
If we lose the QF, having performed well, and just got beaten by a better team on the day - fair enough, I'll probably be disgruntled, but give him the 6N and June window.
If we lose the SF, he'll have reached par, and earned to reach the 2-year mark to see if he can refresh the squad and start getting some improvements.
If we win the SF, he's probably earned the full 4 year period (barring future bad performances).

[Oakboy]

I posted this before the warm-ups.
Obviously, the warm-ups left me more unhappy than I expected beforehand, but I think it still stands.

Taking the RFU out of the equation, what (do we think) our red lines for him are?
So ahead of the RWC, what would we consider catastrophe, unacceptable, acceptable, or better than expected?

For me, he's now got the coaches he wanted, and the players he wants; and he's had them in camp for 6-8 weeks and counting, will be 15 weeks by the time the RWC starts.
The warm-ups are just that, they're pre-season matches with international teams, not club; so I'm trying not to read too much into them.
Par at the RWC, given the draw, is a losing semi-final.

If we drop out in the pool stages, then I'll probably be calling for his head.
If we lose the QF, having failed to perform well, I may well be calling for his head.
If we lose the QF, having performed well, and just got beaten by a better team on the day - fair enough, I'll probably be disgruntled, but give him the 6N and June window.
If we lose the SF, he'll have reached par, and earned to reach the 2-year mark to see if he can refresh the squad and start getting some improvements.
If we win the SF, he's probably earned the full 4 year period (barring future bad performances).

All fair enough. Out of interest, at this point (I realise it is not 'on the day'), which countries are better teams? Ireland, SA and NZ? Wales? Scotland? How about Fiji, on the day?

At this stage, having posted that ugly wins are OK, I don't know how to measure honourable defeat looking at SB's future. Might we always feel that we could have played better no matter which team beats us? Performance v result!

[Which Tyler]

All fair enough. Out of interest, at this point (I realise it is not 'on the day'), which countries are better teams? Ireland, SA and NZ? Wales? Scotland? How about Fiji, on the day?

At this stage, having posted that ugly wins are OK, I don't know how to measure honourable defeat looking at SB's future. Might we always feel that we could have played better no matter which team beats us? Performance v result!

Generally very subjective. Sometimes a lesser team just clicks and has one of those days where they deserve the win against a "better" team - I'd say that they're better "on the day", even if that day is only going to happen once in every 4 or 5 replays of the same match and same circumstances.

If you want an objective measure - I guess if the result swaps position in the rankings, then that'd count, but it's not really what I mean by the phrase.

I can't currently think of an England match in the last few years where we couldn't have played better; whether we won or lost. Playing at your absolute peak, no real room for improvement is a pretty rare thing in sport. Off the top of my head, 2019SF is the last time England actually achieved that.
Elsewise, it's all about my probable feelings on the matter, circumstances on the day, and leading up to it will also affect all of the above in ways I can't predict in advance.

As it stands, we have failed to perform well, and... despite the victories, I'm ready to call for his head if he doesn't turn things around. It's probably too late for him to win me over (short term) based on performance, but he may yet based on results.

[Oakboy]

All fair enough. Out of interest, at this point (I realise it is not 'on the day'), which countries are better teams? Ireland, SA and NZ? Wales? Scotland? How about Fiji, on the day?

At this stage, having posted that ugly wins are OK, I don't know how to measure honourable defeat looking at SB's future. Might we always feel that we could have played better no matter which team beats us? Performance v result!

Generally very subjective. Sometimes a lesser team just clicks and has one of those days where they deserve the win against a "better" team - I'd say that they're better "on the day", even if that day is only going to happen once in every 4 or 5 replays of the same match and same circumstances.

If you want an objective measure - I guess if the result swaps position in the rankings, then that'd count, but it's not really what I mean by the phrase.

I can't currently think of an England match in the last few years where we couldn't have played better; whether we won or lost. Playing at your absolute peak, no real room for improvement is a pretty rare thing in sport. Off the top of my head, 2019SF is the last time England actually achieved that.
Elsewise, it's all about my probable feelings on the matter, circumstances on the day, and leading up to it will also affect all of the above in ways I can't predict in advance.

As it stands, we have failed to perform well, and... despite the victories, I'm ready to call for his head if he doesn't turn things around. It's probably too late for him to win me over (short term) based on performance, but he may yet based on results.

Quite a few will line up with you on that, I'd guess. I'm wavering and can't get over what I still see as major squad selection errors. The extent to which short-termism for the RWC justifies that judgement-call matters a lot. Can he be trusted to re-build? Will he be radical enough?

[Mikey Brown]

Fiji were without Botia and Tuisova last time weren’t they?

[p/d]

Not too sure what target we are setting SB but, at this stage, I’m just judging on how our pack are developing. At the moment we look to be heading in the right direction, from a starting and off the bench perspective. I will add that Earl has got him out of a hole of his own making, but that aside there seems to be plenty of positives.

Next game I expect/want the pack to be clinically brutal. Win ugly, so be it, but they need to tear Samoa a new one! This will be the perfect message to Fiji and (hopefully) our SF opponents.

As for the backs. We don’t have an attack coach so anything creative will be warmly received, however we apparently have a top notch defence coach so expect the backs to be strangling the life out of the Samoan attack

[Puja]

Not too sure what target we are setting SB but, at this stage, I’m just judging on how our pack are developing. At the moment we look to be heading in the right direction, from a starting and off the bench perspective. I will add that Earl has got him out of a hole of his own making, but that aside there seems to be plenty of positives.

Next game I expect/want the pack to be clinically brutal. Win ugly, so be it, but they need to tear Samoa a new one! This will be the perfect message to Fiji and (hopefully) our SF opponents.

As for the backs. We don’t have an attack coach so anything creative will be warmly received, however we apparently have a top notch defence coach so expect the backs to be strangling the life out of the Samoan attack

I want to see what back row he picks for Samoa. If he looks at the body of historical evidence of Lawes and BillyV together in the same back row, and looks at the form of Ben Earl, and looks at the lack of form of BillyV, and still decides that his best option is Lawes/Curry/BillyV, I am going to scream.

Puja