Permutations for New Zealand

[Lizard]

As matters stand, not even beating Italy and Uruguay will guarantee that NZ makes the QFs. Here are the permutations, based on what I hope is the safe assumption that NZ will at least beat Uruguay.

The worst we can do is come fourth. As long as we beat Uruguay, Namibia cannot catch us.

If we lose to Italy, we are out.

If we draw with Italy, and Italy beats or draws with France, then we are out.

If we draw with Italy, Italy loses to France, and we get the same or fewer BPs than Italy from all remaining games, we are out.

If we draw with Italy, Italy loses to France, we get 1 more BP than Italy, and we have a worse PD than Italy, we are out.

If we draw with Italy, Italy loses to France, we get 1 more BP than Italy, and we have a better PD than Italy, we are in the QFs.

If we draw with Italy, Italy loses to France, we get 2 BPs, and Italy get 0, we are in the QFs.

If we beat Italy, Italy beats France, and we get 0 BPs, we are out.

If we beat Italy, Italy beats France, we get 1 BP, Italy gets 2+ BPs, and France gets 1+, we are out.

If we beat Italy, Italy beat France, we get 1 BP and Italy gets 2+ and France 0, we are in the QFs.

If we beat Italy, Italy beat France, we and Italy each get 1 BP, and France gets 1+BPs, we are out.

If we beat Italy, Italy beat France, we get 1 BP and if France gets 0, we are in the QFs.

If we beat Italy, Italy beat France, we and France get 1 BP and Italy gets 0, and we have a worse PD than both France or Italy, we are out.

If we beat Italy, Italy beat France, we and France get 1 BP and Italy gets 0, and we have a better PD than either France or Italy, we are in the QFs.

If we beat Italy, Italy beat France, we get 1 BP, Italy gets 0 and France gets 2, we are in the QFs.

If we beat Italy, Italy beat France, we get 2 BPs, Italy 2+, Fra 2, we are out

If we beat Italy, Italy beat France, we get 2 BPs, and either Italy or France gets 1 or 0, we are in the QFs.

If we beat Italy, Italy and France draw, we get 2 BPs, Italy gets 3 and France 0, and we have a worse PD than both France or Italy, we are out.

If we beat Italy, Italy and France draw, we get 2 BPs, Italy gets 3 and France 0,and we have a better PD than either France or Italy, we are in the QFs.

If we beat Italy, Italy and France draw, we get 1 BP and Italy gets 3, we are out.

If we beat Italy, Italy and France draw, we get 1 BP and Italy gets 2 or fewer, we are in the QFs.

If we beat Italy, Italy and France draw, we get 0 BP and Italy gets 2 or more, we are out.

If we beat Italy, Italy and France draw, we get 0 BP and Italy gets 1 or fewer, we are in the QFs.

If we and France beat Italy, we get 0 BPs and Italy gets 4, we are out.

If we and France beat Italy, we get 0 BPs and Italy gets 3 or fewer, we are in the QFs.

If we and France beat Italy, we get at least one 1 BP, we are in the QFs.

[canta_brian]

How’s that stomach ulcer coming along?

[Which Tyler]

Talking "ifs and buts"
Any permutations where we could arrive at the last weekend, and a Scotland win could see South Africa going out in the pool stages, Rassie blowing up, and various death threats being issued?

[Puja]

Talking "ifs and buts"
Any permutations where we could arrive at the last weekend, and a Scotland win could see South Africa going out in the pool stages, Rassie blowing up, and various death threats being issued?

Absolutely. The easiest way involves the Boks not getting a bonus point in their win against Tonga. If they don't do that and Scotland get bonus point wins against Romania and Ireland, then they end up on 14 points while Scotland have 15 and Ireland could have 16/15 (depending on BP vs Scotland) or 14 (and thus beat out SA for 2nd place based on head-to-head).

If SA get a bonus point win against Tonga, then the only way for it to happen would be all three teams on 15 (Scotland getting 5 point win against Ireland and Ireland getting 1 BP), in which case it would come down to points difference and would require Scotland to absolutely clump Romania to catch up.

Or, least likely, Tonga beat South Africa.

So it's possible, albeit strikingly unlikely.

Puja

[Which Tyler]

So it's possible, albeit strikingly unlikely.

But also... Potentially hilarious (except for the officials)

[Lizard]

So we're still not out of the woods.

Table points are France 13, NZ. 10, Italy 10. Remaining matches are NZ v Uruguay, France v Italy.

Beating Uruguay with a BP will guarantee NZ a QF.

If NZ doesn't get the BP while beating Uruguay, then any result other than an Italian BP win with France also getting at least 1 BP, will see NZ into the QFs.

If we lose or draw with Uruguay, we've got bigger problems than RWC QFs.

[cashead]

Uruguay are a bit of an ambush team, in that they've surprised opponents that you'd think would walk right over them with a minimum of angst (case in point their game against France a couple of weeks ago), but I can't see them doing the same against the ABs, even if they are In Name Only.

[Son of Mathonwy]

So we're still not out of the woods.

Table points are France 13, NZ. 10, Italy 10. Remaining matches are NZ v Uruguay, France v Italy.

Beating Uruguay with a BP will guarantee NZ a QF.

If NZ doesn't get the BP while beating Uruguay, then any result other than an Italian BP win with France also getting at least 1 BP, will see NZ into the QFs.

If we lose or draw with Uruguay, we've got bigger problems than RWC QFs.

After last night that's all pretty theoretical. Italy beat France? NZ not get a BP?

[Lizard]

Italy will be targeting France. They clearly wrote off the NZ match before the tournament began.

[Puja]

Italy will be targeting France. They clearly wrote off the NZ match before the tournament began.

I don't know - if they were doing that, they would've picked a weaker side. I think they were looking at the NZ match as something they could be competitive in, and then completely fell apart (and your lot got their belief reaffirmed) after conceding two early tries.

Puja

[canta_brian]

Nz press certainly not getting too excited

https://www.stuff.co.nz/sport/rugby-wor ... pitulation

[Lizard]

Big 2007 vibes about the quality of the games leading into the QFs here.