Potential QFs

[Lizard]

Pool A:
France and Italy could each be 1, 2 or 3
NZ could be 1, 2, 3 or 4
Uruguay could be 3 or 4
Namibia is guarateed 5th

Pool B
SA will be 1, 2 or 3
Ireland will be 1,2 or 3
Scotland will be 2 or 3
Tonga and Romania are playng off for 4th/5th

Pool C
Wales will be 1 or 2
Fiji will be 1, 2 or 3
Australia will be 2 or 3
Georgia and Portugal are fighting over 4th/5th

Pool D
England is the only locked in top qualifier at 1
Argentina and Japan could each be 2, 3, or 4
Samoa can be 3 or 4
Chile is locked in at 5th

EDIT: fixed errors identified by people smarter than me

[Puja]

Technically speaking, South Africa aren't guaranteed qualification yet. If Scotland were to beat Ireland by 21+ points, scoring 4 tries, and Ireland got a 4 try bonus point, then it would force a 3-way tie at the top of the pool, which Scotland would win on points difference (as no-one would have a better head-to-head). Once that was resolved, it would then become a 2-way tie between South Africa and Ireland, which would be Ireland going through on head-to-head.

Strikingly unlikely scenario, but it'd be hugely entertaining if it happened.

Puja

[Which Tyler]

I thought 3-way ties were split purely on PD?

Are you going around, giving me hope again?

[Sandydragon]

Whilst mathematically there are a number of permutations, realistically the big games remaining at Scotland v Ireland and Argentina v Japan.

I don’t think Scotland will be able to shut Ireland out, but it’s not impossible they could win. Japan vs Argentina is less certain although I think I tip Argentina to do enough to shut Japan out.

France and New Zealand are through bar the shouting. Fiji should do enough against Portugal, unless they totally expect a walk over and don’t mentally turn up (not impossible). But, if FIji and Portugal both want to play rugby that could be a cracker for the neutral.

[Lizard]

Technically speaking, South Africa aren't guaranteed qualification yet. If Scotland were to beat Ireland by 21+ points, scoring 4 tries, and Ireland got a 4 try bonus point, then it would force a 3-way tie at the top of the pool, which Scotland would win on points difference (as no-one would have a better head-to-head). Once that was resolved, it would then become a 2-way tie between South Africa and Ireland, which would be Ireland going through on head-to-head.

Strikingly unlikely scenario, but it'd be hugely entertaining if it happened.

Puja

If Scotland beats Ireland by more than 5 points, Ireland’s PD drops below SA.

[switchskier]

Technically speaking, South Africa aren't guaranteed qualification yet. If Scotland were to beat Ireland by 21+ points, scoring 4 tries, and Ireland got a 4 try bonus point, then it would force a 3-way tie at the top of the pool, which Scotland would win on points difference (as no-one would have a better head-to-head). Once that was resolved, it would then become a 2-way tie between South Africa and Ireland, which would be Ireland going through on head-to-head.

Strikingly unlikely scenario, but it'd be hugely entertaining if it happened.

Puja

Knocking out South Africa might be in Ireland best interests long term. Come on Farrell - you know it makes sense.

[p/d]

I know Australia have had a rotten tournament but leaving them out of Pool C is a bit of a kick in the twins.

[Puja]

Technically speaking, South Africa aren't guaranteed qualification yet. If Scotland were to beat Ireland by 21+ points, scoring 4 tries, and Ireland got a 4 try bonus point, then it would force a 3-way tie at the top of the pool, which Scotland would win on points difference (as no-one would have a better head-to-head). Once that was resolved, it would then become a 2-way tie between South Africa and Ireland, which would be Ireland going through on head-to-head.

Strikingly unlikely scenario, but it'd be hugely entertaining if it happened.

Puja

If Scotland beats Ireland by more than 5 points, Ireland’s PD drops below SA.

It wouldn't matter.

The ranking of tied teams in the pool stage is determined as follows:[15]

The winner of the Match in which the two tied Teams have played each other shall be the higher ranked.
The Team which has the best difference between points scored for and points scored against in all its pool Matches shall be the higher ranked.
The Team which has the best difference between tries scored for and tries scored against in all its pool Matches shall be the higher ranked.
The Team which has scored most points in all its pool Matches shall be the higher ranked.
The Team which has scored most tries in all its pool Matches shall be the higher ranked.
Should the tie be unresolved at the conclusion of steps 1 through 5, the rankings as per the updated Official World Rugby World Rankings on October 9, 2023 will determine the higher ranked Team. See the official World Rugby Rankings.

For clarification, in the case of a tie between three or more Teams at the end of the pool phase, once the highest ranked Team has been determined following the above criteria, to determine the next higher ranked Team the process would repeat, starting at the first criterion.

In this scenario, if Scotland are established as top of the 3-way tie on points difference, then they are removed from the calculations and second place is determined just between Ireland and South Africa, in which case head-to-head comes in before points difference.

Leaves an interesting potential scenario where it's 2 minutes to go, Ireland are losing 43-28 with a TBP in the bag and are currently going out (as SA would have the top points difference and Scotland would then get 2nd on head-to-head). It would be in their interests to concede a try under the posts, as no other action would see them qualify for the quarter finals.

Or, alternately, Scotland are leading 47-21 in the 80th minute and Ireland score their fourth try under the posts. Unconverted, it sends them through, but a successful conversion sees them go out. Does the call go out for the conversion to be deliberately scuffed?

Puja

[Son of Mathonwy]

I think Farrell needs to get a traffic light system to deal with this. There's no way he can trust the players to keep up with these permutations on the pitch.

[Son of Mathonwy]

Technically speaking, South Africa aren't guaranteed qualification yet. If Scotland were to beat Ireland by 21+ points, scoring 4 tries, and Ireland got a 4 try bonus point, then it would force a 3-way tie at the top of the pool, which Scotland would win on points difference (as no-one would have a better head-to-head). Once that was resolved, it would then become a 2-way tie between South Africa and Ireland, which would be Ireland going through on head-to-head.

Strikingly unlikely scenario, but it'd be hugely entertaining if it happened.

Puja

If Scotland beats Ireland by more than 5 points, Ireland’s PD drops below SA.

It wouldn't matter.

The ranking of tied teams in the pool stage is determined as follows:[15]

The winner of the Match in which the two tied Teams have played each other shall be the higher ranked.
The Team which has the best difference between points scored for and points scored against in all its pool Matches shall be the higher ranked.
The Team which has the best difference between tries scored for and tries scored against in all its pool Matches shall be the higher ranked.
The Team which has scored most points in all its pool Matches shall be the higher ranked.
The Team which has scored most tries in all its pool Matches shall be the higher ranked.
Should the tie be unresolved at the conclusion of steps 1 through 5, the rankings as per the updated Official World Rugby World Rankings on October 9, 2023 will determine the higher ranked Team. See the official World Rugby Rankings.

For clarification, in the case of a tie between three or more Teams at the end of the pool phase, once the highest ranked Team has been determined following the above criteria, to determine the next higher ranked Team the process would repeat, starting at the first criterion.

In this scenario, if Scotland are established as top of the 3-way tie on points difference, then they are removed from the calculations and second place is determined just between Ireland and South Africa, in which case head-to-head comes in before points difference.

Leaves an interesting potential scenario where it's 2 minutes to go, Ireland are losing 43-28 with a TBP in the bag and are currently going out (as SA would have the top points difference and Scotland would then get 2nd on head-to-head). It would be in their interests to concede a try under the posts, as no other action would see them qualify for the quarter finals.

Or, alternately, Scotland are leading 47-21 in the 80th minute and Ireland score their fourth try under the posts. Unconverted, it sends them through, but a successful conversion sees them go out. Does the call go out for the conversion to be deliberately scuffed?

Puja

Of course we could do away with these perverse scenarios if we just got rid of head-to-head being a more important deciding factor than points difference (and the others). That would mean there would be no advantage to Ireland giving up a try, they'd make their points difference even worse, they'd still be out. That's what I'd do.

[Puja]

If Scotland beats Ireland by more than 5 points, Ireland’s PD drops below SA.

It wouldn't matter.

The ranking of tied teams in the pool stage is determined as follows:[15]

The winner of the Match in which the two tied Teams have played each other shall be the higher ranked.
The Team which has the best difference between points scored for and points scored against in all its pool Matches shall be the higher ranked.
The Team which has the best difference between tries scored for and tries scored against in all its pool Matches shall be the higher ranked.
The Team which has scored most points in all its pool Matches shall be the higher ranked.
The Team which has scored most tries in all its pool Matches shall be the higher ranked.
Should the tie be unresolved at the conclusion of steps 1 through 5, the rankings as per the updated Official World Rugby World Rankings on October 9, 2023 will determine the higher ranked Team. See the official World Rugby Rankings.

For clarification, in the case of a tie between three or more Teams at the end of the pool phase, once the highest ranked Team has been determined following the above criteria, to determine the next higher ranked Team the process would repeat, starting at the first criterion.

In this scenario, if Scotland are established as top of the 3-way tie on points difference, then they are removed from the calculations and second place is determined just between Ireland and South Africa, in which case head-to-head comes in before points difference.

Leaves an interesting potential scenario where it's 2 minutes to go, Ireland are losing 43-28 with a TBP in the bag and are currently going out (as SA would have the top points difference and Scotland would then get 2nd on head-to-head). It would be in their interests to concede a try under the posts, as no other action would see them qualify for the quarter finals.

Or, alternately, Scotland are leading 47-21 in the 80th minute and Ireland score their fourth try under the posts. Unconverted, it sends them through, but a successful conversion sees them go out. Does the call go out for the conversion to be deliberately scuffed?

Puja

Of course we could do away with these perverse scenarios if we just got rid of head-to-head being a more important deciding factor than points difference (and the others). That would mean there would be no advantage to Ireland giving up a try, they'd make their points difference even worse, they'd still be out. That's what I'd do.

True and I do prefer points difference as a less controversial method of splitting teams on equal points, but there is something to be said for head-to-heads, as it avoids Team A getting eliminated by Team B, despite having beaten Team B and thus "proven" they were better, simply because Team B played the minnows when they were rotating players and put 100 points on them.

I think the bit that queers the pitch is that last paragraph where three-way ties are solved and then it's treated as an entirely new two-way tie. Get rid of that and rank every team in a three-way tie by the same criteria and I reckon we'd be all right.

Puja

[p/d]

Tug of war, under TOWA rules.

Best of 3, eight per team. Meet and greet breakfast before heat 1 & 2, light lunch followed by 3rd pull (if required). Fancy dress optional.

[Lizard]

I know Australia have had a rotten tournament but leaving them out of Pool C is a bit of a kick in the twins.

Ha ha. Good spot. Fixed now.

[Son of Mathonwy]

It wouldn't matter.


In this scenario, if Scotland are established as top of the 3-way tie on points difference, then they are removed from the calculations and second place is determined just between Ireland and South Africa, in which case head-to-head comes in before points difference.

Leaves an interesting potential scenario where it's 2 minutes to go, Ireland are losing 43-28 with a TBP in the bag and are currently going out (as SA would have the top points difference and Scotland would then get 2nd on head-to-head). It would be in their interests to concede a try under the posts, as no other action would see them qualify for the quarter finals.

Or, alternately, Scotland are leading 47-21 in the 80th minute and Ireland score their fourth try under the posts. Unconverted, it sends them through, but a successful conversion sees them go out. Does the call go out for the conversion to be deliberately scuffed?

Puja

Of course we could do away with these perverse scenarios if we just got rid of head-to-head being a more important deciding factor than points difference (and the others). That would mean there would be no advantage to Ireland giving up a try, they'd make their points difference even worse, they'd still be out. That's what I'd do.

True and I do prefer points difference as a less controversial method of splitting teams on equal points, but there is something to be said for head-to-heads, as it avoids Team A getting eliminated by Team B, despite having beaten Team B and thus "proven" they were better, simply because Team B played the minnows when they were rotating players and put 100 points on them.

I think the bit that queers the pitch is that last paragraph where three-way ties are solved and then it's treated as an entirely new two-way tie. Get rid of that and rank every team in a three-way tie by the same criteria and I reckon we'd be all right.

Puja

Yeah I'd take consistent performance over a one-off result, that's points difference over h-t-h.

[Lizard]

Technically speaking, South Africa aren't guaranteed qualification yet. If Scotland were to beat Ireland by 21+ points, scoring 4 tries, and Ireland got a 4 try bonus point, then it would force a 3-way tie at the top of the pool, which Scotland would win on points difference (as no-one would have a better head-to-head). Once that was resolved, it would then become a 2-way tie between South Africa and Ireland, which would be Ireland going through on head-to-head.

Strikingly unlikely scenario, but it'd be hugely entertaining if it happened.

Puja

If Scotland beats Ireland by more than 5 points, Ireland’s PD drops below SA.

It wouldn't matter.

The ranking of tied teams in the pool stage is determined as follows:[15]

The winner of the Match in which the two tied Teams have played each other shall be the higher ranked.
The Team which has the best difference between points scored for and points scored against in all its pool Matches shall be the higher ranked.
The Team which has the best difference between tries scored for and tries scored against in all its pool Matches shall be the higher ranked.
The Team which has scored most points in all its pool Matches shall be the higher ranked.
The Team which has scored most tries in all its pool Matches shall be the higher ranked.
Should the tie be unresolved at the conclusion of steps 1 through 5, the rankings as per the updated Official World Rugby World Rankings on October 9, 2023 will determine the higher ranked Team. See the official World Rugby Rankings.

For clarification, in the case of a tie between three or more Teams at the end of the pool phase, once the highest ranked Team has been determined following the above criteria, to determine the next higher ranked Team the process would repeat, starting at the first criterion.

In this scenario, if Scotland are established as top of the 3-way tie on points difference, then they are removed from the calculations and second place is determined just between Ireland and South Africa, in which case head-to-head comes in before points difference.

Leaves an interesting potential scenario where it's 2 minutes to go, Ireland are losing 43-28 with a TBP in the bag and are currently going out (as SA would have the top points difference and Scotland would then get 2nd on head-to-head). It would be in their interests to concede a try under the posts, as no other action would see them qualify for the quarter finals.

Or, alternately, Scotland are leading 47-21 in the 80th minute and Ireland score their fourth try under the posts. Unconverted, it sends them through, but a successful conversion sees them go out. Does the call go out for the conversion to be deliberately scuffed?

Puja

You are right.

[Lizard]

It would be interesting to see if there are any unusual odds being offered on 21+ margin to Scotland.

[loudnconfident]

Who was it said that the papers read this forum?

http://digitaleditions.telegraph.co.uk/ ... rticle/NaN

"Jacques Nienaber, South Africa’s head coach, has described any suggestion that Ireland and Scotland could collude to send his team out of the World Cup as “match-fixing”.

[BaldiePete]

The Pool B possibilities are all shown here. Credit to Kevin Millar.

https://x.com/topofthemoongw/status/170 ... 50jNBQ3TAA

[Son of Mathonwy]

The Pool B possibilities are all shown here. Credit to Kevin Millar.

https://x.com/topofthemoongw/status/170 ... 50jNBQ3TAA

Right, so the players need to memorise this.

In fairness the bottom two sections could be reduced to one line.

[Ross. S]

What would be the funniest, Ireland's collective tantrum at missing the QF, Rassie's complete meltdown on Twatter because they miss the QF or Scotland's strop at getting pulled in this pool because they "would have won pool C and D easily"?

[Puja]

What would be the funniest, Ireland's collective tantrum at missing the QF, Rassie's complete meltdown on Twatter because they miss the QF or Scotland's strop at getting pulled in this pool because they "would have won pool C and D easily"?

Oh, Rassie's meltdown, absolutely. And that of every Springbok fan that believes everything in world rugby is a conspiracy set to keep them down.

Puja

[Mikey Brown]

What would be the funniest, Ireland's collective tantrum at missing the QF, Rassie's complete meltdown on Twatter because they miss the QF or Scotland's strop at getting pulled in this pool because they "would have won pool C and D easily"?

Well we’ve already been doing option C for a year or two now so surely can’t have that.

[BaldiePete]

What would be the funniest, Ireland's collective tantrum at missing the QF, Rassie's complete meltdown on Twatter because they miss the QF or Scotland's strop at getting pulled in this pool because they "would have won pool C and D easily"?

Oh, Rassie's meltdown, absolutely. And that of every Springbok fan that believes everything in world rugby is a conspiracy set to keep them down.

Puja

That would definitely be funniest. All we have to do is win by more than 20 points while letting Ireland score at least four tries. So at least a 41-20 win, more likely something like 49-28. Nae bother, piece of piss really. See ya Rassie