Match result prediction thread

[Lizard]

Fuck. I got Fiji’s 2 big games around the wrong way.

13 out of 16.

[Puja]

I'd actually forgotten that I picked Wales to beat Fiji and didn't think I was doing well, but so far I'm like George Ford's place kicking - almost perfect despite not doing anything remotely interesting or innovative. 15/16, with only SA vs Scotland letting me down.

I actually have some small bets on each of the 3N not to make it out of the pools - I think that ship has sailed for South Africa (bloody Scots), but I'll be cheering on Wales and Italy over the next couple of weeks.

Puja

[Lizard]

I'm losing count now...

Fra v NZ: correct
Italy v Namibia: correct
Ireland v Romaina: correct
Australia v Georgia: correct
England v Argentina: incorrect (but 1 try to nil moral victory)
Japan v Chile: correct
SA v Scotland: corrct
Wales v Fiji: incorrect (but moral victory for iffy reffing)
France v Uruguay: correct but not by as much as I expected
NZ v Namibia: correct
Samoa v Chile: correct
Wales v Portugal: correct
Ireland v Tonga: correct


So that's 11 from 13.

SA v Romania: correct
Aussie v Fiji: incorrect
England v Japan: correct
Italy v Uruguay: correct
France v Namibia: correct
Argentina v Samoa: correct
Georgia v Portugal: incorrect (but c'mon, who predicts a draw?)
England v Chile: correct
SA v Ireland: correct
Scotland v Tonga: correct
Wales v Australia: correct (OK, I said Wales would "sneak home" but I got the result right!)

20/24

[Sourdust]

25 games in.
After the embarrassment of calling the first two "big" games wrong, I think I've recovered decently with 21/25 results correct so far.
Notably my three wrong calls have ALL been to back a SH team to beat a NH one.
Red = wrong call, Black = right call, Green = right call and notably close on result and/or margin.

Pool A
Fra v NZ: NZ 22-18 13-27
Italy v Namibia: It 36-6 52-8
France v Uruguay: Fr 68-10 27-12
NZ v Namibia: NZ 84-5 71-3
Italy v Uruguay: It 29-21 38-17
France v Namibia: Fr 46-0 96-0
Uruguay v Namibia: Ur 31-20 36-26

Pool B
Ireland v Romania: Ir 44-9 82-8
SA v Scotland: SA 35-27 18-3
Ireland v Tonga: Ir 30-8 59-16
SA v Romania: SA 77-15 76-0
SA v Ireland: Ir 19-17 13-8
Scotland v Tonga: Sc 22-13 45-17

Pool C:
Australia v Georgia: Au 33-13 35-15
Wales v Fiji: Fi 26-21 26-32
Wales v Portugal: Wa 64-20 28-8
Australia v Fiji: Fi 15-12 22-15
Georgia v Portugal: Ge 21-8 18-18
Wales v Australia: Wa 24-17 40-6

Pool D:
England v Argentina: Ar 26-14 10-27
Japan v Chile: Ja 30-12 42-12
Samoa v Chile: Sa 36-20 43-10
England v Japan: En 37-21 34-12
Argentina v Samoa: Ar 18-10 19-10
England v Chile: En 51-5 71-0

[Lizard]

I'm losing count now...

Fra v NZ: correct
Italy v Namibia: correct
Ireland v Romaina: correct
Australia v Georgia: correct
England v Argentina: incorrect (but 1 try to nil moral victory)
Japan v Chile: correct
SA v Scotland: corrct
Wales v Fiji: incorrect (but moral victory for iffy reffing)
France v Uruguay: correct but not by as much as I expected
NZ v Namibia: correct
Samoa v Chile: correct
Wales v Portugal: correct
Ireland v Tonga: correct


So that's 11 from 13.

SA v Romania: correct
Aussie v Fiji: incorrect
England v Japan: correct
Italy v Uruguay: correct
France v Namibia: correct
Argentina v Samoa: correct
Georgia v Portugal: incorrect (but c'mon, who predicts a draw?)
England v Chile: correct
SA v Ireland: correct
Scotland v Tonga: correct
Wales v Australia: correct (OK, I said Wales would "sneak home" but I got the result right!)

20/24

Uruguay v Namibia: correct

21/25

[Puja]

23/25. Do I get a little hat to wear if I'm officially the best?

Puja

[Lizard]

23/25. Do I get a little hat to wear if I'm officially the best?

Puja

You’ll be appointed Deputy Board Boss King.

[Sourdust]

Georgia v Portugal: incorrect (but c'mon, who predicts a draw?)

Me, 6N 2001, on the Gwl@d website I think. Called a 29-29 draw between Scotland & Wales. Final score: 28-28.

If I'd had any sense, I'd have given up predictions there and then.

[Lizard]

I'm losing count now...

Fra v NZ: correct
Italy v Namibia: correct
Ireland v Romaina: correct
Australia v Georgia: correct
England v Argentina: incorrect (but 1 try to nil moral victory)
Japan v Chile: correct
SA v Scotland: corrct
Wales v Fiji: incorrect (but moral victory for iffy reffing)
France v Uruguay: correct but not by as much as I expected
NZ v Namibia: correct
Samoa v Chile: correct
Wales v Portugal: correct
Ireland v Tonga: correct


So that's 11 from 13.

SA v Romania: correct
Aussie v Fiji: incorrect
England v Japan: correct
Italy v Uruguay: correct
France v Namibia: correct
Argentina v Samoa: correct
Georgia v Portugal: incorrect (but c'mon, who predicts a draw?)
England v Chile: correct
SA v Ireland: correct
Scotland v Tonga: correct
Wales v Australia: correct (OK, I said Wales would "sneak home" but I got the result right!)

20/24

Uruguay v Namibia: correct

21/25

Japan v Samoa: correct

22/26

[Lizard]

SA v Romania: correct
Aussie v Fiji: incorrect
England v Japan: correct
Italy v Uruguay: correct
France v Namibia: correct
Argentina v Samoa: correct
Georgia v Portugal: incorrect (but c'mon, who predicts a draw?)
England v Chile: correct
SA v Ireland: correct
Scotland v Tonga: correct
Wales v Australia: correct (OK, I said Wales would "sneak home" but I got the result right!)

20/24

Uruguay v Namibia: correct

21/25

Japan v Samoa: correct

22/26

NZ v Italy: correct
Arg v Chile: correct
Fiji v Georgia: incorrect but happily so
Scotland v Romania: correct

25/30.

[Lizard]

Uruguay v Namibia: correct

21/25

Japan v Samoa: correct

22/26

NZ v Italy: correct
Arg v Chile: correct
Fiji v Georgia: incorrect but happily so
Scotland v Romania: correct

25/30.

Australia v Portugal: correct
SA v Tonga: correct
NZ v Uruguay: correct

28/33

[Puja]

In my defence, I don't think anyone else predicted those two Portugal games either.

Puja

[Sourdust]

Pool A
Fra v NZ: NZ 22-18 - 13-27
Italy v Namibia: It 36-6 - 52-8
France v Uruguay: Fr 68-10 - 27-12
NZ v Namibia: NZ 84-5 - 71-3
Italy v Uruguay: It 29-21 - 38-17
France v Namibia: Fr 46-0 - 96-0
Uruguay v Namibia: Ur 31-20 - 36-26
New Zealand v Italy: NZ 45-13 - 96-17
New Zealand v Uruguay: NZ 38-7 - 73-0
France v Italy: Fr 25-12 - 60-7

Pool B
Ireland v Romania: Ir 44-9 - 82-8
SA v Scotland: SA 35-27 - 18-3
Ireland v Tonga: Ir 30-8 - 59-16
SA v Romania: SA 77-15 - 76-0
SA v Ireland: Ir 19-17 - 13-8
Scotland v Tonga: Sc 22-13 - 45-17
Scotland v Romania: Sc 40-11 - 84-0
SA v Tonga: SA 52-19 - 49-18
Ireland v Scotland: Ir 28-22 - 36-14
Tonga v Romania: To 23-6 - 45-24

Pool C:
Australia v Georgia: Au 33-13 - 35-15
Wales v Fiji: Fi 26-21 - 26-32
Wales v Portugal: Wa 64-20 - 28-8
Australia v Fiji: Fi 15-12 - 22-15
Georgia v Portugal: Ge 21-8 - 18-18
Wales v Australia: Wa 24-17 - 40-6
Fiji v Georgia: Ge 19-10 - 12-17
Australia v Portugal: Au 55-6 - 34-14
Wales v Georgia: Wa 20-11 - 43-19
Fiji v Portugal: Fi 44-29 - 23-24

Pool D
England v Argentina: Ar 26-14 - 10-27
Japan v Chile: Ja 30-12 - 42-12
Samoa v Chile: Sa 36-20 - 43-10
England v Japan: En 37-21 - 34-12
Argentina v Samoa: Ar 18-10 - 19-10
England v Chile: En 51-5 - 71-0
Japan v Samoa: Sa 21-18 - 22-28
Argentina v Chile: Ar 39-7 - 59-5
England v Samoa: Sa 29-19 - 17-18
Japan v Arg: Ar 41-16 - 39-27

32/40 - Could do better. My downfall: underestimating England and wildly overestimating Samoa & Fiji, in an object lesson in reading too much into warm-up matches. Calling Fiji to lose to the wrong minnow is particularly galling...

[Puja]

37/40 so far, with my only mistakes being picking Scotland to beat SA and not seeing Portugal coming in the slightest.

Puja

[Son of Mathonwy]

Can't face predicting every match but here's a stab at the business end of things:

Pool A: France, New Zealand
Only these two can top this pool. Home advantage and NZ's recent shakiness puts France first.

Pool B: South Africa, Ireland
Although it's not inconceivable the Scotland might spring a surprise, I think they'll fall short against the top 2. SA edge the pool for me - they seem to be the more solid.

Pool C: Australia, Wales
Any of Aus, Wal and Fiji could qualify in this group, in any order. It's a total stab but I'll guess that things will ultimately go in the traditional way.

Pool D: Argentina, England
Although Samoa and Japan are capable of causing a shock and England are in a state they probably have enough to hold off everyone other than Arg.

Quarter-1: Australia beat England
Jesus, they are both in a state but England seem in even more disarray.

Quarter-2: South Africa beat New Zealand
We've just seen this match-up (or should I say mismatch). I can't see a different result.

Quarter-3: Wales beat Argentina
Wales don't usually have too much trouble with Argentina. I think we can edge this one.

Quarter-4: France beat Ireland
Tough for Ireland but France look like the No.1 team right now, and also have a much better track record in world cups. And they're at home.

Semi-1: South Africa beat Australia
Australia outclassed.

Semi-2: France beat Wales
Wales put up a fight but their defence just isn't up to it.

Bronze Final: Australia beat Wales
For the 2nd time. Wales never win this one (okay I know we did once apparently but anyway, it ain't gonna happen).

Final: France beat South Africa
This could really go either way but home advantage gives it to les Bleus (provided Dupont is in one piece).

Right, so I got almost everything wrong but that hasn't deterred me before.

Pool A was the only one I got right, B and D I had qualifiers in the wrong order and C I didn't think Fiji would beat Aus. So that means the quarters are almost completely different, except Wales/Arg (although I thought that would be quarter 3 not 1). Anyway, on to new predictions:

Quarter-1: Wales beat Argentina
I'm even more confident in my original prediction given current form.

Quarter-2: Ireland beat New Zealand
Quite a match up. The form of the last few years gives it to Ireland, world cup history gives it to NZ. Could go either way but Ireland will rightly be confident of a win.

Quarter-3: Fiji beat England
Honestly, this is a guess. A couple of weeks ago it was comfortably Fiji's, but now? Who wins, the team that beat Samoa by 1 or lost to Portugal by 1? If anyone can find their A game they'll win, but odds on neither of them will.

Quarter-4: France beat South Africa
This should be the final IMO. Very close, I'd say France wins this 3 times out of 5.

Semi-1: Ireland beat Wales
Has Gatland forged an unbeatable Wales over the Summer? Not unbeatable enough, I fear.

Semi-2: France beat Fiji
Carnage. (Same if England gets here ahead of Fiji).

Bronze Final: Wales beat Fiji
We've done it once, assuming we haven't lost half of our team to injury we'll do it again, and more comfortably.

Final: France beat Ireland
Titanic struggle but France has all the weapons. And home advantage.

[Lizard]

Japan v Samoa: correct

22/26

NZ v Italy: correct
Arg v Chile: correct
Fiji v Georgia: incorrect but happily so
Scotland v Romania: correct

25/30.

Australia v Portugal: correct
SA v Tonga: correct
NZ v Uruguay: correct

28/33

Fra v Italy: Correct
Wales v Geo: Correct
Eng v Sam: Correct
Ire v Sco: Correct
Jpn v Arg: Correct
Tonga v Rom: Correct
Fiji v Por: Wrong

34/40

Pool A finishing order: correct
Pool B: correct
Pool C: I got 1st correct, put 3rd in second and got 3rd completely wrong
Pool D: I got 1 & 2 around the wrong way, 3rd was correct

I now think I’ve got both Pool A/B QFs wrong, but I’m stuck with those picks.

Pool C/D I need to redo:
Wales v Arg: Wales. But I’m not confident.
Eng v Fiji: England. But I hope I’m wrong.

[Puja]

Quarter-finals:
Wales v Argentina: I think this is where the second coming of Gatland finds its limitations.
Ireland v NZ: NZ, cause Ireland aren't allowed to win quarter finals.

It's possible that I'm a witch, albeit not one that's clever enough to actually put a bet on.

Puja

[Lizard]

Like I said. Death, taxes, and an Ireland quarter-final exit.

[Son of Mathonwy]

I'm out of this prediction game. Whatever I say, bet against it.

[Lizard]

NZ v Italy: correct
Arg v Chile: correct
Fiji v Georgia: incorrect but happily so
Scotland v Romania: correct

25/30.

Australia v Portugal: correct
SA v Tonga: correct
NZ v Uruguay: correct

28/33

Fra v Italy: Correct
Wales v Geo: Correct
Eng v Sam: Correct
Ire v Sco: Correct
Jpn v Arg: Correct
Tonga v Rom: Correct
Fiji v Por: Wrong

34/40

Pool A finishing order: correct
Pool B: correct
Pool C: I got 1st correct, put 3rd in second and got 3rd completely wrong
Pool D: I got 1 & 2 around the wrong way, 3rd was correct

I now think I’ve got both Pool A/B QFs wrong, but I’m stuck with those picks.

Pool C/D I need to redo:
Wales v Arg: Wales. But I’m not confident.
Eng v Fiji: England. But I hope I’m wrong.

Wales v Arg: wrong
NZ v Ireland: correct
Eng v Fiji: correct
SA v Fra: correct

37/44