If Russia invades Ukraine (more)...

[Zhivago]

Zhivago,

Everything I'm reading suggests that only limited (albeit mobile) Ukrainian troops have been deployed, which points towards a diversionary attack to force Russia to move troops from elsewhere. Is there anything you have found that offers a different view?

Operational security has been very tight from the Ukrainian side. Therefore it is not clear what their main objectives are. I'm not a military expert, but from what I've read it seems much more similar to the Balakliya breakthrough in the 2022 Kharkiv counter offensive in nature, although smaller in scale (at least so far). The similarity for me is the deep mobile and raiding nature of the attacks. Getting in behind the Russian lines (they have broken through two prepared lines of defence). Ukraine is still advancing, and so far the territory taken is greater than the recent Russian offensive in Kharkiv oblast.

There seems to be a development in tactics, with a strong role played by electronic warfare suppressing Russian comms and drone reconnaissance. There is saturation of air defence assets also in the Ukrainian offensive groups. Also the materiel is marked with a triangle/delta symbol, indicating to me that this is more than just some kind of diversion reconnaisance group, but a proper offensive, planned for months. In terms of scale we are talking multiple thousands of troops and hundreds of armoured vehicles. I have read that Ukraine still has at least 3 brigades in reserve, which might yet be thrown in on a secondary axis.

edit:
At this stage on wikipedia it is being called an 'incursion' rather than a counteroffensive.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/August_20 ... _incursion

[Sandydragon]

Zhivago,

Everything I'm reading suggests that only limited (albeit mobile) Ukrainian troops have been deployed, which points towards a diversionary attack to force Russia to move troops from elsewhere. Is there anything you have found that offers a different view?

Operational security has been very tight from the Ukrainian side. Therefore it is not clear what their main objectives are. I'm not a military expert, but from what I've read it seems much more similar to the Balakliya breakthrough in the 2022 Kharkiv counter offensive in nature, although smaller in scale (at least so far). The similarity for me is the deep mobile and raiding nature of the attacks. Getting in behind the Russian lines (they have broken through two prepared lines of defence). Ukraine is still advancing, and so far the territory taken is greater than the recent Russian offensive in Kharkiv oblast.

There seems to be a development in tactics, with a strong role played by electronic warfare suppressing Russian comms and drone reconnaissance. There is saturation of air defence assets also in the Ukrainian offensive groups. Also the materiel is marked with a triangle/delta symbol, indicating to me that this is more than just some kind of diversion reconnaisance group, but a proper offensive, planned for months. In terms of scale we are talking multiple thousands of troops and hundreds of armoured vehicles. I have read that Ukraine still has at least 3 brigades in reserve, which might yet be thrown in on a secondary axis.

edit:
At this stage on wikipedia it is being called an 'incursion' rather than a counteroffensive.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/August_20 ... _incursion

Thanks. I'd suggest that more than 2 brigades would be needed for a full counter-offensive, but this is likely to be a major fixing operation designed to draw Russian troops north from other hot spots. it could be that the situation becomes favourable and Ukraine look to exploit a sluggish Russian response, but at the moment this feels more political than military in terms of objectives, i.e. rather than trying to bite and hold, they might be looking to make a political point and then withdraw, having unsettled Russia, reassured Nato allies that they are still capable of such things and weakened Russian troops elsewhere. Creating a huge salient which could be counter-attacked and cause the loss of many troops and material is something they would want to avoid.

[Zhivago]

Zhivago,

Everything I'm reading suggests that only limited (albeit mobile) Ukrainian troops have been deployed, which points towards a diversionary attack to force Russia to move troops from elsewhere. Is there anything you have found that offers a different view?

A more recent report suggests this is a 2 brigade operation, so not inconsequential numbers.

Which report is that?

From what I've found the force consists of the following:

• 22nd Mechanized Brigade

• 14th Separate Regiment of Unmanned Aviation Systems

• 80th Air Assault Brigade

• Georgian Legion

• Freedom of Russia Legion

• Alfa Group (special forces under SBU)

Russians are posting this now:

[Zhivago]

Zhivago,

Everything I'm reading suggests that only limited (albeit mobile) Ukrainian troops have been deployed, which points towards a diversionary attack to force Russia to move troops from elsewhere. Is there anything you have found that offers a different view?

Operational security has been very tight from the Ukrainian side. Therefore it is not clear what their main objectives are. I'm not a military expert, but from what I've read it seems much more similar to the Balakliya breakthrough in the 2022 Kharkiv counter offensive in nature, although smaller in scale (at least so far). The similarity for me is the deep mobile and raiding nature of the attacks. Getting in behind the Russian lines (they have broken through two prepared lines of defence). Ukraine is still advancing, and so far the territory taken is greater than the recent Russian offensive in Kharkiv oblast.

There seems to be a development in tactics, with a strong role played by electronic warfare suppressing Russian comms and drone reconnaissance. There is saturation of air defence assets also in the Ukrainian offensive groups. Also the materiel is marked with a triangle/delta symbol, indicating to me that this is more than just some kind of diversion reconnaisance group, but a proper offensive, planned for months. In terms of scale we are talking multiple thousands of troops and hundreds of armoured vehicles. I have read that Ukraine still has at least 3 brigades in reserve, which might yet be thrown in on a secondary axis.

edit:
At this stage on wikipedia it is being called an 'incursion' rather than a counteroffensive.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/August_20 ... _incursion

Thanks. I'd suggest that more than 2 brigades would be needed for a full counter-offensive, but this is likely to be a major fixing operation designed to draw Russian troops north from other hot spots. it could be that the situation becomes favourable and Ukraine look to exploit a sluggish Russian response, but at the moment this feels more political than military in terms of objectives, i.e. rather than trying to bite and hold, they might be looking to make a political point and then withdraw, having unsettled Russia, reassured Nato allies that they are still capable of such things and weakened Russian troops elsewhere. Creating a huge salient which could be counter-attacked and cause the loss of many troops and material is something they would want to avoid.

My working assumption is rather than trying to create a salient, they would link up with a secondary attack that could come from Hlukiv-Rylsk axis. This would actually straighten the frontline here. They seemed to want to go from Sudzha to Korenevo at first, but are going in the direction of Lgov instead now, due to resistance.

They also interdict one of the GLOCs of the Russian Northern Group by taking control of the railway line at Sudzha. That might weaken the Russian forces in and around Vovchansk.

I agree that it's more political than strategic. Likely to strengthen the position in the possible upcoming negotiations in Autumn.

[Sandydragon]

Zhivago,

Everything I'm reading suggests that only limited (albeit mobile) Ukrainian troops have been deployed, which points towards a diversionary attack to force Russia to move troops from elsewhere. Is there anything you have found that offers a different view?

A more recent report suggests this is a 2 brigade operation, so not inconsequential numbers.

Which report is that?

From what I've found the force consists of the following:

• 22nd Mechanized Brigade

• 14th Separate Regiment of Unmanned Aviation Systems

• 80th Air Assault Brigade

• Georgian Legion

• Freedom of Russia Legion

• Alfa Group (special forces under SBU)

Russians are posting this now:

Sky News r et ported 2 bdes. Looking at the list you provide, it’s basically that with some attachments

[Sandydragon]

Having double checked the size of the Georgian Legion, it’s basically three brigades with support.

[Zhivago]

Having double checked the size of the Georgian Legion, it’s basically three brigades with support.

I guess 2-3 thousand men then? Not sure how big a brigade is...

[Sandydragon]

Having double checked the size of the Georgian Legion, it’s basically three brigades with support.

I guess 2-3 thousand men then? Not sure how big a brigade is...

2500-4000 men depending on type and nationality.

[Sandydragon]

I think some of the confusion over the size of the Ukrainian force was due to the initial numbers, approx one thousand, which was then significantly reinforced as they made progress. It’s looking more divisional level now which is significant.

[paddy no 11]

What's going on here lads, force vlad to move drops and withdraw as soon as he does? and reclaim occupied Ukraine?

[Sandydragon]

What's going on here lads, force vlad to move drops and withdraw as soon as he does? and reclaim occupied Ukraine?

They are certainly hoping to move troops from further south. Not sure if that will be coupled with a counter offensive in the south given how well dug in the Russians are. It might be to give Ukrainians time to better fortify existing positions in the south.

I also wonder if they are hedging in case Trump wins and they are forced to negotiate. Or perhaps they think Putins position isn’t as strong as it appears and this might be enough to tip opposition over the edge? Significant gamble that as there’s no guarantee that a replacement wouldn’t be worse.

I think they are making a political play here to knock the Russians off their momentum and remind the world they remain credible. I can see them holding that amount of territory long term with one division of troops.

[Mellsblue]

Zelensky is proving once again that you can see his balls from space. I’m so fucking happy it’s working but I’m praying to a god I don’t believe in that it doesn’t back fire.

[Sandydragon]

Zelensky is proving once again that you can see his balls from space. I’m so fucking happy it’s working but I’m praying to a god I don’t believe in that it doesn’t back fire.

Feels like both sides are waiting for the US election to be completed. The Ukraine advance has been excellent but they will run out of troops to keep expanding their salient. The Russians will then be able to mass firepower a against troops in defence, so sitting where they are for the long term is a strange decision unless they are expecting Putin to talk after the elections.

[Banquo]

Zelensky is proving once again that you can see his balls from space. I’m so fucking happy it’s working but I’m praying to a god I don’t believe in that it doesn’t back fire.

fantastic Zelensky doc being aired on the beeb

[Son of Mathonwy]

Zelensky is proving once again that you can see his balls from space. I’m so fucking happy it’s working but I’m praying to a god I don’t believe in that it doesn’t back fire.

Feels like both sides are waiting for the US election to be completed. The Ukraine advance has been excellent but they will run out of troops to keep expanding their salient. The Russians will then be able to mass firepower a against troops in defence, so sitting where they are for the long term is a strange decision unless they are expecting Putin to talk after the elections.

I suppose the fact that we're left guessing what Zelenskyy is planning means that Putin is too, which is no bad thing.

[Banquo]

Zelensky is proving once again that you can see his balls from space. I’m so fucking happy it’s working but I’m praying to a god I don’t believe in that it doesn’t back fire.

Feels like both sides are waiting for the US election to be completed. The Ukraine advance has been excellent but they will run out of troops to keep expanding their salient. The Russians will then be able to mass firepower a against troops in defence, so sitting where they are for the long term is a strange decision unless they are expecting Putin to talk after the elections.

I suppose the fact that we're left guessing what Zelenskyy is planning means that Putin is too,

Yes, cos we are party to all the intelligence Putin is

[Galfon]

Memryk ? ( eastern Donetsk ), seems like an 'apple-a-day' with the Russ.advance on Pokrovsk, so not detracted much by the Kursk business. Sounds like sniffing distance now, and the goal of the whole region.
Of course the autumn muds and stretched/knackd resources will hinder, as may any Zel'sky cunning plan..

[paddy no 11]

Hopefully see a good desertion rate out of the north Koreans

[paddy no 11]

Putin looking to bypass all embargoes by setting up a new system for transferring money amongst BRICS countries. I'm sure loads of people will speak up against this and later fall out of windows

[Sandydragon]

Putin looking to bypass all embargoes by setting up a new system for transferring money amongst BRICS countries. I'm sure loads of people will speak up against this and later fall out of windows

A power bloc to rival the west. Well
Not really but it certainly will give Russia a lot of confidence

[Zhivago]

When will we realise we are in a kind of war with Russia? Every fire that breaks out reeks of the Russians engaging in sabotage.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/1 ... -shipyard/

[Which Tyler]

From the Kiel Institute, and focussed on Germany's contributions to the war in Ukraine
https://eadaily.com/en/news/2024/11/03/ ... v-ifw-kiel

Currently, the war has cost Germany around 0.1% of GDP (annually), in donations, coping with refugees etc. (I don't know if oil price inflation is included here - or how relevant it would be for the next statement)
They estimate that that could rise to 1.0-2.0% (annually) if Putin wins, in terms of ramping up military spending domestically, and coping with further waves of refugees.

Presumably, the numbers for this are greater for countries like Poland, Romania, Slovakia etc


Also looks like Maldova have annoyed Putin by voting for closer links to the EU, and keeping Maya Sandu as president.
Hopefully not the only time Putin is annoyed about a presidential election this week!

[Son of Mathonwy]

When will we realise we are in a kind of war with Russia? Every fire that breaks out reeks of the Russians engaging in sabotage.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/1 ... -shipyard/

No idea about this particular case but you'd hope that our intelligence services are fully switched on to the Russian threat now we're done with Tory oligarch cosiness.

[Mellsblue]

When will we realise we are in a kind of war with Russia? Every fire that breaks out reeks of the Russians engaging in sabotage.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/1 ... -shipyard/

No idea about this particular case but you'd hope that our intelligence services are fully switched on to the Russian threat now we're done with Tory oligarch cosiness.

Actually lol’d at this take. Bravo.

[Puja]

Went onto Twitter for something sensible and clicked onto a trending topic out of curiosity, despite knowing better by now. It is full of Russian bots/information posters, MAGA bots/information posters, and people who have been reading those thing and amplifying the propaganda, all of them frothing at the mouth about the fact that Russia is about to launch a nuclear strike in retaliation for the abhorrent act of Ukraine daring to {checks notes} bomb them back. Just constant repetition of Russian talking points about how they could obliterate all of Western Europe within a few hours with a nuclear strike.

This was how I discovered that Russia fired a (non-nuclear) ICBM onto Dnipr this morning. Significant escalation of rhetoric, although not a great deal more than that. Not really more important than any previous nuclear sabre-rattling, as everyone knows Russia launching any nuclear weapon (at least while Biden is in charge of NATO) would see retaliation and they're not going to risk that response on anything less than an existential threat.

Twitter is an absolute cess-pool though, full of right wing nutters and, to add to the mess, Jeremy Corbyn being spectacularly unhelpful by asking, apparently earnestly, whether we are now at war with Russia because our missiles were used. I have a lot of time for some of his politics, I think he was badly done by as leader of the Labour party in a lot of respects, I generally have a lot of respect for his anti-war positions, but that is arrant mince and a perfect example of why he failed as a party leader. He's either an idiot or playing one on television, neither of which is particularly dignified.

Puja