America

[Son of Mathonwy]

This must be reassuring. More 4D chess from Trump I supppose.

Ah, don't believe it. You can always make some theory like this but Trump's an idiot makes more sense.

Anyway, remember Truss? Having a mad person running the country doesn't usually have a positive impact on bond prices (ie a negative impact on yields). And would Trump really want to preside over the kind of deeply unpopular economic carnage of a stock market crash? That's not to say that he isn't making it happen (he is pushing it that way) but I don't think he actually wants it.

[Which Tyler]

Short term pain for long term gain - and Trump - don't make good bedfellows

[Puja]

This must be reassuring. More 4D chess from Trump I supppose.

"Bond prices rise, yields fall, making it cheaper to refinance," is a complete misunderstanding of what bonds are, isn't it? They're being wrong with such confidence that it's making me doubt myself, but as far as I understand it, "yields" doesn't mean the amount of interest that the government has to pay on the bond, it's the interest as a fraction of the purchase price. So when "yields fall", it doesn't mean it's less expensive for the government, it means the investor is getting less bang for their buck because the price is higher.

The only way to make it cheaper for the government to refinance is by reducing interest rates, which is certainly possible by fucking the stock market and the economy, but there's also the issue that screwing the economy is going to make fewer people want to buy into America from the outside (especially since the dollar's movement is limited because it's used as a reserve currency, so the market wouldn't devalue the currency by much, as it would with £ or € which would make outside investment more attractive). So that would drive bond values down as there's less demand.

Incidentally, I have now discovered that, if you start searching for "How much of the US government debt is..." on google, as I just did when looking for how much was bonds, it helpfully tries to finish the sentence with "...owned by Jews". So that's great. That's not worrying at all. I'm not alarmed by what MAGA's response to a stock-market meltdown would be, in the slightest.

Puja

[Son of Mathonwy]

This must be reassuring. More 4D chess from Trump I supppose.

"Bond prices rise, yields fall, making it cheaper to refinance," is a complete misunderstanding of what bonds are, isn't it? They're being wrong with such confidence that it's making me doubt myself, but as far as I understand it, "yields" doesn't mean the amount of interest that the government has to pay on the bond, it's the interest as a fraction of the purchase price. So when "yields fall", it doesn't mean it's less expensive for the government, it means the investor is getting less bang for their buck because the price is higher.

The only way to make it cheaper for the government to refinance is by reducing interest rates, which is certainly possible by fucking the stock market and the economy, but there's also the issue that screwing the economy is going to make fewer people want to buy into America from the outside (especially since the dollar's movement is limited because it's used as a reserve currency, so the market wouldn't devalue the currency by much, as it would with £ or € which would make outside investment more attractive). So that would drive bond values down as there's less demand.

Incidentally, I have now discovered that, if you start searching for "How much of the US government debt is..." on google, as I just did when looking for how much was bonds, it helpfully tries to finish the sentence with "...owned by Jews". So that's great. That's not worrying at all. I'm not alarmed by what MAGA's response to a stock-market meltdown would be, in the slightest.

Puja

Sorry Puja, you're not correct on this. Yields are the interest on a bond as a fraction of the price, but this is a useful measure because the interest rate (coupon) on a bond is fixed (once the bond is issued). From this point only the price can change implying a yield (interest rate/current price). The yield is important because it's the rate of interest the market currently thinks is fair for a bond of a certain maturity. Thus, if a new bond is issued, its interest rate needs to be approximately equal to the current yield, otherwise it won't sell.

So yields are a good guide to the cost of government finance.

The problem here is the assumption that shares and bonds are always negatively correlated. It's not a bad rule of thumb that when the stock market looks too risky, money flees to safer places like bonds. But a country being badly run will make both shares and bonds of that country more risky. Money will then be more likely to flee to commodities or other financial assets overseas.

Trump is busy adding a 'moron premium' to the required interest rate for US assets.

[Puja]

This must be reassuring. More 4D chess from Trump I supppose.

"Bond prices rise, yields fall, making it cheaper to refinance," is a complete misunderstanding of what bonds are, isn't it? They're being wrong with such confidence that it's making me doubt myself, but as far as I understand it, "yields" doesn't mean the amount of interest that the government has to pay on the bond, it's the interest as a fraction of the purchase price. So when "yields fall", it doesn't mean it's less expensive for the government, it means the investor is getting less bang for their buck because the price is higher.

The only way to make it cheaper for the government to refinance is by reducing interest rates, which is certainly possible by fucking the stock market and the economy, but there's also the issue that screwing the economy is going to make fewer people want to buy into America from the outside (especially since the dollar's movement is limited because it's used as a reserve currency, so the market wouldn't devalue the currency by much, as it would with £ or € which would make outside investment more attractive). So that would drive bond values down as there's less demand.

Incidentally, I have now discovered that, if you start searching for "How much of the US government debt is..." on google, as I just did when looking for how much was bonds, it helpfully tries to finish the sentence with "...owned by Jews". So that's great. That's not worrying at all. I'm not alarmed by what MAGA's response to a stock-market meltdown would be, in the slightest.

Puja

Sorry Puja, you're not correct on this. Yields are the interest on a bond as a fraction of the price, but this is a useful measure because the interest rate (coupon) on a bond is fixed (once the bond is issued). From this point only the price can change implying a yield (interest rate/current price). The yield is important because it's the rate of interest the market currently thinks is fair for a bond of a certain maturity. Thus, if a new bond is issued, its interest rate needs to be approximately equal to the current yield, otherwise it won't sell.

So yields are a good guide to the cost of government finance.

The problem here is the assumption that shares and bonds are always negatively correlated. It's not a bad rule of thumb that when the stock market looks too risky, money flees to safer places like bonds. But a country being badly run will make both shares and bonds of that country more risky. Money will then be more likely to flee to commodities or other financial assets overseas.

Trump is busy adding a 'moron premium' to the required interest rate for US assets.

Huh, interesting. Thanks for taking the time to educate me on that.

Puja

[Son of Mathonwy]

Trump's government willfully disobey Judges' orders, twice. The USA is lawless.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/202 ... ed-lebanon

[morepork]

Trump's government willfully disobey Judges' orders, twice. The USA is lawless.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/202 ... ed-lebanon

No it isn't. The executive branch is off the leash right now, but will be appropriately tethered in time. Civil rights advocacy on the ground here is off the scale (it kind of has to be, just as it had to be pre-1964). Don't underestimate the capacity of public service here to respond to civil rights violation. Some of us will get beaten up in that fight, but we shall overcome.

[Son of Mathonwy]

Trump's government willfully disobey Judges' orders, twice. The USA is lawless.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/202 ... ed-lebanon

No it isn't. The executive branch is off the leash right now, but will be appropriately tethered in time. Civil rights advocacy on the ground here is off the scale (it kind of has to be, just as it had to be pre-1964). Don't underestimate the capacity of public service here to respond to civil rights violation. Some of us will get beaten up in that fight, but we shall overcome.

Great to hear from you, and some optimism from the ground, USA. Keep fighting!

[Son of Mathonwy]

(From a few days ago... ) With the Democrats folding to Trump like this, the Republicans might not even need to rig the election to win next time.

https://time.com/7268499/senate-democrats-budget-vote/

[Which Tyler]

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video ... llies.html

DONALD TRUMP: It will ensure the USA continues to dominate the skies. We have given in order for a lot. We cannot tell you the price because it would give away some of the technology and sizable planes—a good-sized plane. This contract also represents an historic investment in our defense industrial base, helping keep America at the cutting edge of technology. Our allies are calling constantly—they want to buy them also. Certain allies, we will be selling them, perhaps, a toned-down version. We like to tone it down about 10%, which probably makes sense, because maybe some of them are not our allies, right?

[Son of Mathonwy]

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video ... llies.html

DONALD TRUMP: It will ensure the USA continues to dominate the skies. We have given in order for a lot. We cannot tell you the price because it would give away some of the technology and sizable planes—a good-sized plane. This contract also represents an historic investment in our defense industrial base, helping keep America at the cutting edge of technology. Our allies are calling constantly—they want to buy them also. Certain allies, we will be selling them, perhaps, a toned-down version. We like to tone it down about 10%, which probably makes sense, because maybe some of them are not our allies, right?

They're not going to sell too many of these. Who would buy them? Only Israel, the only real ally they have left.

Okay, the UK probably will because we're such pathetic bootlickers. But anyone who wants planes they can rely on would be mad. Everyone's building '6th generation' aircraft right now, it's just the next gen.

[Mikey Brown]

I’d missed this whole signal chat thing. Incredible. Just saw the clip of Tulsi Gabbard refusing to even say whether she was part of the group.

It’s a shame this won’t matter in the slightest, but it’s sort of funny for the whole crowd on the right who happily dismiss all the MAGA culture/character stuff, because the economy and national security are the only things that really matter.

[Son of Mathonwy]

While the news is full of the Signal chat, Trump signs a largely illegal executive order to increase voter suppression (in part through UK style ID requirements). This is just the beginning.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/202 ... mmigration

[morepork]

Good job USandA. You've got the idiots you voted for in charge, and how well that is going. Fuck you for shitting on a generation of social and scientific innovation in the course of a few months. Fuck you Troglodytes and may you reap what you sow. I've given everything I have to science, health, community, and camaraderie, but I'm all out of fucks to give. I hope the real Americans that were here before you will laugh at your pathetic mewlings in years to come and you do harm only to yourselves. Fuck right off.


Peace

[Which Tyler]

Apparently, this is how you go about arresting small female students who think that genocide is bad - if you're the secret police
https://bsky.app/profile/pplscitycounci ... ccrxc6nk2v

[Son of Mathonwy]

Apparently, this is how you go about arresting small female students who think that genocide is bad - if you're the secret police
https://bsky.app/profile/pplscitycounci ... ccrxc6nk2v

Secret police is right. The US is no longer a safe place.

[Son of Mathonwy]

Good job USandA. You've got the idiots you voted for in charge, and how well that is going. Fuck you for shitting on a generation of social and scientific innovation in the course of a few months. Fuck you Troglodytes and may you reap what you sow. I've given everything I have to science, health, community, and camaraderie, but I'm all out of fucks to give. I hope the real Americans that were here before you will laugh at your pathetic mewlings in years to come and you do harm only to yourselves. Fuck right off.


Peace

We hear you buddy. Grim times.

[morepork]

It’s actually at the point I’m not comfortable with critique via social media. I’m getting all my brilliant diverse students to turn the wagons on their sides and defend their right to study and contribute to research from the righteous pilgrims bearing down on them. It’s totally FUBAR. These kids have contributed so much to disease treatments in at least two clinical contexts. Now they sleep with one eye open. Any biologist will tell you inbreeding is a recipe for an evolutionary dead end. The US has/had the most productively supportive R&D environment on the planet. Wave your self-righteous agenda at disease and let’s compare data you utter thundercunts. You want solutions to unmet need in health, my kids are on it. Fuck this pantomime Luddite shit. Way to destroy innovation. France should take back the Statue of Liberty and put it somewhere that lives the sentiment embodied within. I’m so fucked off right now.

[Which Tyler]

Wave your self-righteous agenda at disease and let’s compare data you utter thundercunts.

Like this, you mean?

Funding to fight measles outbreak in Texas hit by DOGE cuts


We feel your pain, we really do.
As a legal immigrant to the States - do what you need to do to keep safe - which probably means scrubbing any and all of your social media accounts - and start panning an exit strategy.

Or say "fuck it" and take a stand, accepting that unpleasant things may well happen.

[Which Tyler]

Fighting Back: A Citizen’s Guide to Resistance

[Sandydragon]

Wave your self-righteous agenda at disease and let’s compare data you utter thundercunts.

Like this, you mean?

Funding to fight measles outbreak in Texas hit by DOGE cuts


We feel your pain, we really do.
As a legal immigrant to the States - do what you need to do to keep safe - which probably means scrubbing any and all of your social media accounts - and start panning an exit strategy.

Or say "fuck it" and take a stand, accepting that unpleasant things may well happen.

That’s a big call and one that Morepork needs to co wider carefully. This situation is disgraceful; the right to free speech should not be constrained in such a way.

Good luck to you Morepork.

[Which Tyler]

That’s a big call and one that Morepork needs to consider carefully.

I've a uni friend I was actively trying to convince to move to Canada, or... somewhere, yesterday.
Immigrant with citizenship
Coloured
Trans woman
University lecturer

She's in Chicago, so it could be worse, but... USA just doesn't feel safe for her.

[morepork]

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-025-00938-y

[morepork]

The kids are getting punched down on. I spend as much time on VISA support as I do research support.


Wolves in sheeps clothing patrol our streets. Massive shout out to advocacy on the ground here , which is off the scale.

[morepork]

Wave your self-righteous agenda at disease and let’s compare data you utter thundercunts.

Like this, you mean?

Funding to fight measles outbreak in Texas hit by DOGE cuts


We feel your pain, we really do.
As a legal immigrant to the States - do what you need to do to keep safe - which probably means scrubbing any and all of your social media accounts - and start panning an exit strategy.

Or say "fuck it" and take a stand, accepting that unpleasant things may well happen.

That’s a big call and one that Morepork needs to co wider carefully. This situation is disgraceful; the right to free speech should not be constrained in such a way.

Good luck to you Morepork.

It's not free speech, it's civil rights.