Taiwan

[Son of Mathonwy]

Right at the end of this clip there's an interview with a representative of China. I thought he seemed pretty sensible, especially compared with Americans today. Then, right at the end Taiwan comes up.

Jesus. It's, there is just China, no Taiwan. There will be reunification, hopefully peacefully but if not then it's war. And it's all the fault of those nasty separatist Taiwanese politicians, not the people who obviously can't wait to become Chinese.

Reckon they'll invade before the end of Trump's term* coz he isn't going to lift a finger to help.

[Puja]

Reckon they'll invade before the end of Trump's term* coz he isn't going to lift a finger to help.

Agreed that Taiwan is on borrowed time. There's no way they could withstand a Chinese military action and their only shield so far has been staunch US foreign policy that they will defend it. With the American populace increasingly becoming more insular and Trump's turning America's ironclad commitments into easily shredded paper, there's got to be a feeling that they can chance their arm.

Having said that, Trump is such a volatile and unstable lunatic that he can't be relied upon to react rationally. He has built a chunk of his brand on (rhetorically) attacking "Chynah" and he is pretty much the only Yank politician rn who could rally the people to a full-throated defence of Taiwan. If China had launched into it with Biden, he would've made speeches about how terrible it was, provided logistical support and weapons to the Taiwanese troops, and imposed sanctions, but I can't see him having the minerals to go to war, nor Congress having the confidence to back him, nor the populace being keen to send US troops against a superpower for a country that a vanishing minority understand why they should care about. If Trump decides China are the enemy and it's war-time, then the cult will join in like it's the Two Minutes Hate.

I'd say the danger increases to China if Trump feels domestically threatened, as he'll be aware that wartime presidents are beloved and that is his guiding star.

Puja

[Mellsblue]

This has been the Chinese policy for decades and overtly so for years. Not sure how it’s a surprise.

Semiconductors is the answer as to why Trump will help. Just as rare earth minerals is the answer as to why Trump will help in Ukraine.