RWC 2027 Qualifying

[Puja]

Rugby Europe Championship has had a weird change of format this year - it was a biannual round robin (which was also weird, don't get me wrong), but now it's an annual knock-out tournament with two 4-team pools leading to semi-finals and a final. Potentially a more sensible format and a possible model for the 6N to use if they ever choose to expand, but the increased number of teams and the decision on the order of fixtures has led to Netherlands and Switzerland getting taken without lubrication for two weeks in a row by Georgia and Spain (Georgia 110 : 0 Netherlands being a particular lowlight) and to Belgium and Germany getting pumped by Romania and Portugal for two weeks in a row (Belgium scoring the best result of the minnows in having the only game where the winner didn't get a try bonus point - Romania will be very upset). As such, REC 2025 knows its semi-finalists even before the final round and, as such, knows its 4 qualifiers for the expanded RWC 2027.

That is, of course, until Spain get disqualified for fielding an ineligble player, as is their consistent hobby.

Belgium, Germany, Switzerland, and Holland will play knockout games of their own to see who comes fifth and goes into the repechage for the final RWC place.

Puja

[Puja]

Not to come over all Rowan, but I got interested in what minnows could be turning up at 2027, so I looked into the qualification for the other regions.

Rugby Africa gets one guaranteed place and one play-off spot to get into the repechage (playing against Asia 2). They had a knockout tournament last November to set rankings for a round-robin tournament this year - ordinarily you'd expect Nambia vs Kenya to be the final with the expectation that they'd end up being Africa 1 and 2 respectively, but both of them went out in the semi finals to Zimbabwe and Algeria (with Zimbabwe comfortably winning top-seeding). Whether that's a shift in power in the continent, or just one-offs in a knockout and normal service will be restored in the round robin, I don't know.

Asia Rugby get the same deal as Africa and will allocate them through the 2025 Asian Rugby Championship in June, but the difference is that their automatic qualification is a foregone conclusion - Hong Kong are risibly ahead of the rest. The play-off place is interesting though - battle between South Korea and UAE, which UAE won last year. Don't really associate them with rugby, although I suppose I should with the Dubai 7s. Actually... [quick google], yeah that tracks - while one probably shouldn't judge solely by surnames, not a single one of the UAE squad has an Arabic name, the first names include Riann/Pieter/Handre/Carel, Justin/Rory/David/Jonathan, and Epeli/Emosi/Sakiusa/Esekaia and the vast majority of them play for a team called "Dubai Exiles" (with a fair representation from Dubai Tigers and Abu Dhabi Harlequins (and one from Shannon!)), so that's our explanation. South Korea, on the other hand, have not a single English/South African/Polynesian name among them.

The Americas have been split - South America get one free place (almost certainly Uruguay's), one play-off place for an automatic qualification, and one repechage (between Paraguay, Chile, and Brazil, most likely Chile), both allocated by a knockout. North America has been lumped in with Oceania to form "Pacific" which qualifies vis the Pacific Nations Cup (ignoring Japan and Fiji who are already qualified. They get 3 guaranteed (Samoa, Tonga, and almost certainly USA, given Canada's malaise) and last place gets the playoff against South America 2 to decide who qualifies and who goes into the repechage. You'd likely expect Chile to beat out Canada in that game.

So, we already know we've got Georgia, Spain, Portugal, and Romania, we're almost certain to get Hong Kong, Uruguay, Samoa, Tonga, USA, which leaves us Africa 1, Pacific/South America playoff winner, and a repechage tournament of Europe 5, South America 3, South America / Pacific play-off loser and Africa / Asia play-off winner, taking place in November 2025.

Seems very early to have qualification confirmed, but I suspect the strategy is because the IRB plan on chucking a lot of money and expertise at the new minnows and spending 2 years running a hothouse of at least semi-professionalism to try and build teams capable of competing. They don't want to have expanded the competition and have that result in the wrong kind of records being smashed.

Puja

[Lizard]

Hong Kong have now, as predicted, qualified, and done so easily.

[Puja]

And Zimbabwe have made a shock in turning over Namibia to qualify for their first RWC since 1991! Great result for them, and you'd've thought would now make a foregone conclusion of the repechage tournament.

Puja

[Lizard]

Good on them. Namibia needed a kick in the pants.

[Puja]

Good on them. Namibia needed a kick in the pants.

Indeed - they have been incredibly settled and staid for years, just being happy to qualify each time and nothing more. Africa has far more growth potential for World Rugby than trying to make the USA happen, and it's good that other teams are now stepping up to challenge Namibia's half-hearted local dominance.

Assuming that Chile vs Canada doesn't have a massive upset, that leaves a Repechage for the final spot of Belgium, Brazil, Canada, and Namibia. Can't see any result but Namibia qualifying from that lot, although Belgium might have a puncher's chance - will be good for the game to have three African sides represented.

Puja

[Lizard]

I agree with you, but note WR rankings:
20. Chile (63.83)
22. Belgium (61.20)
25. Canada (57.75)
27. Namibia (56.86)
28. Brazil (55.90)

I am guessing, but presumably Namibia have players that show for crucial RWC qualifiers but not for every other test?

[Puja]

I agree with you, but note WR rankings:
20. Chile (63.83)
22. Belgium (61.20)
25. Canada (57.75)
27. Namibia (56.86)
28. Brazil (55.90)

I am guessing, but presumably Namibia have players that show for crucial RWC qualifiers but not for every other test?

Huh. Looking at the history, Namibia's ranking is suffering from having lost two rankings point games in a row to Zimbabwe, which has knocked then down, and they've not played many winnable games inbetween which could bring them back up again. That being said, I don't know whether those losses are a sign of a resurgent Zimbabwe or a declining Namibia, so it is possible that ranking is very much deserved?

Might be a much more interesting repechage than I thought. You'd've said the best outcome for the game as a whole would be for Brazil to make a first RWC, given the growing game there and the huge market available, but any of them have their advantages.

Puja

[Mr Mwenda]

The pendulum swing toward South America is fantastic. Any idea what's driving it? My mum was in Chile during the last world cup and said she saw nothing at all about rugby at all.

[Puja]

The pendulum swing toward South America is fantastic. Any idea what's driving it? My mum was in Chile during the last world cup and said she saw nothing at all about rugby at all.

I believe SLAR has been a game-changer. Having a professional competition and structure has made a massive difference - it's driving quality of preparation and development of players, plus it's providing a regular product for fans, as it regularly gets attendances of 5-6k, with some games getting 8-9k.

Plus, the success draws people in. Brazil's beefy scrum utterly manhandling the NZ Maori a few years back was a gift to their marketing department (especially because the "Maori" part was oft forgotten on social media clips), and allowed them to market the game as a very masculine endeavour that was differentiated from the dramatics of football. Plus it could be advertised as a sport for (ahem) different sized gentlemen who weren't keen on being embarrassed by tiny lithe things on a football pitch. Uruguay and Chile have had the joy of taking down the supposed giants of USA and Canada, giving their fans successes to cheer about, instead of the usual minnow experience of getting regularly brutalised and told it's good for their exposure.

It's still very much niche, but it's a solid niche.

Puja

[Mr Mwenda]

Canada beat USA I'm the Pacific comp! In with a decent shout if qualifying now!

[Lizard]

I just saw the result. How? What?

Was it all Tyler Ardron?

[Mr Mwenda]

He seems to have been mentioned in dispatches!

[Puja]

I just saw the result. How? What?

Was it all Tyler Ardron?

4 tries and MotM suggests he was somewhat involved.



Fair play to Canada - did not see that coming at all. USA in utter disarray though and I'm not sure where World Rugby go from here. MLR is falling apart with teams dropping out left right and centre, and there's a good argument that it's not fit for purpose in producing American players anyway, given the national team have gone backwards. You'd like to hope they'll make it through the repechage, but then you'd've thought they'd beat Canada!

Puja

[Danno]

Doesn't bode well for the US hosting in 2031

[Puja]

Doesn't bode well for the US hosting in 2031

Crossposting this from NA board, cause it seems relevant:

Maybe this is the plan, and expanded United Rugby Chapionship. Don't see how the hell this would work though:

https://www.rugbypass.com/news/reports- ... n-america/

Frankly, I'm not sure it'd be a great idea for the URC. The travel costs would be incredible, the timezones would be tremendously awkward for both jetlag and broadcast, and the quality of opposition would lead to embarrassing scorelines.

In addition, the bromide of "stateside interest in rugby is only going to grow ahead of the USA hosting back-to-back World Cups in 2031 and 2033" can be repeated as much as one likes, but it's not currently proving to be true. RWC 2031 won't ever be a financial flop, as there will be expats and businessmen and traveling fans galore who will buy the tickets, but rugby is not breaking through in any way shape or form. The native rugby fans would generally prefer having their own league (especially since the country's so large and divided that a team in Florida would mean nothing to fans in Georgia), and the average Yank sports fan won't be exercised by the idea of competing against Celtic or Italian teams - they don't know what country Leinster is in, let alone care about them putting a cricket score on a Miami team

The only beneficiary would be the USA national team, as hothousing two teams of All-Americans (presumably on the IRB's credit card) against higher grade opposition would give them a chance to do a Uruguay and improve through cohesion.

Puja