Statistic of the Day

[Lizard]

Bledisloe Cup

As noted in another thread, the current All Blacks’ dominance of the Bledisloe Cup is actually nothing too far out of the ordinary.

The Cup has been contested since 1931 (or 1932*) and in the 86 years since there have been 57 series played (it only became an annual contest in 1982).

Series wins
All Blacks 45 (79%)
Wallabies 12 (21%)

The current run is the most consecutive series wins (14) but only the second longest in terms of time (14 years). The All Blacks held the cup for a record 28 years over 12 series from 1951 – 1978. In fact, the only interruption between 1936 and 1978 (43 years, 17 series) was an Australian win in 1949 against a second string touring outfit (the first choice players were in South Africa and in fact played a test on the same day as one of the Bledisloe tests).

Australia’s best run was 5 in a row from 1998-2002, which has unreasonably raised the expectations of Aussie players and fans ever since (much like the 1980’s NZ cricket team). Their second best was only 2 consecutive wins in 1979 & 1980. They have also had 5 one-off wins, after which they lost the Cup immediately.

So the Wallabies have a 7 from 45 record in taking the Cup off NZ.

The Cup has been contested in one-off matches and in series of 2, 3, 4 or even 5 tests. Since 1996 all or some of those tests have doubled as TriNations or Rugby Championship matches.

The only five Test series was in 1962 (2 played in Aussie, 3 in NZ):
NZ won (4-1)

3 four-test series were played 2008-2010 (each including 3N/RC games in both countries plus 1 neutral venue):
NZ 3 (4-0, 2x 3-1)
Aussie 0

23 three-test series were played sporadically from 1932-1974, every second season 1978-1992, and including 3N/RC matches in 1997-98, 2006 and 2013-2015:
NZ 19 (6x 3-0, 9x 2-0, 4x 2-0-1)
Aussie 4 (1x 3-0, 3x 2-1)

21 two-test series occurred sporadically in a single country from 1934-68, home-and-away in 1991 and in 1995, as part of the 3N/RC in 1996, 2000-2005, 2007, 2011 and 2016:
NZ 15 (10x 2-0, 5x 1-1**)
Aussie 6 (2x 2-0, 1x 1-0-1, 3x 1-1**)

9 one-off tests have decided the Cup including the first match in 1931, 1967, 1979, every 2nd season 1983-1989, 1993-94:
NZ 7
Aussie 2

*ARU say 1931, NZRU say 1932 as Lord Bledisloe did not gift the actual Cup until a few days after the 1931 match.

**Cup retained as holder despite drawn series

[Lizard]

Locking combinations

Michael Cheika has been in charge of the Wallabies for 21 tests now.
In that time he has used 8 different locks in his starting XV, in 11 different combinations.
8 combinations (or 73% of them) have been used only once. Two of them have been tried 3 times. Douglas/Simmons have started 7 times together.
Two of the top 3 of Douglas/SImmons/Skelton have been the starting pair in 10 of those 21 tests.

In roughly same time period, Steve Hansen has also coached 21 tests.
In that time he has used 7 different locks in his starting XV, in 6 different combinations.
3 combinations (50%) have been used only once. Two of them have been tried 3 times. Retallick/Whitelock have started 12 times together.
Two of Retallick/Romano/Whitelock have been the starting pair in 18 of those 21 tests.

[Lizard]

Yes. Years ago on a previous RR incarnation I did a detailed breakdown of percentage of team tries scored during a players career and whether the players presence on the pitch lifted the average number of tries scored. This took fucking ages and I'm not going to do it again. Probably.

OK, I crumbled. I’ve only done the numbers for Ohata and Savea though, with some (justifiable) approximations around dates. A more nuanced view could be given by doing some sort of weighting of quality of opposition but fuck that.

Ohata scored 69 tries in 58 tests (1.2/test). That was 26.5% of Japan’s total of 260 in those tests, or 4.5 tries/test. In the calendar years encompassing his test career (1996-2006), Japan played 32 tests without Ohata, scoring 102 tries, or 3.2/test. Interestingly, if you add the average tries/test Japan managed without Ohata to his personal average, you get very close to Japan’s average with Ohata (3.2+1.2=4.4≈4.5). This suggests that the majority of Ohata’s tries are ones that Japan would not have scored without him (on the almost certainly incorrect assumption that there was no correlation between opposition strength and the selection of Ohata).

Savea has scored 41 tries in 45 tests (0.9/test). That is 22.2% of NZ’s total of 185 in those tests, or 4.1 tries/test. In the calendar years encompassing his test career (2012-2016), NZ has played 14 tests without Savea, scoring 50 tries, or 3.6/test. If you add the average tries/test NZ manages without Savea to his personal average, you get about half a try more than NZ’s average with Savea (3.6+0.9=4.5>4.1). This suggests that only about half of Savea’s tries are ones that NZ would not have scored without him (on the almost certainly incorrect assumption that there was no correlation between opposition strength and the selection of Savea).

Conclusion: Ohata was more valuable to Japan than Savea is to NZ, given the average strength of opposition and alternative players available.

Further, if Savea maintains his career scoring rate, he will need to get to about 77 tests to beat Ohata’s record. If he plays every test, this will take him until at least RC2018, when he will be 28.

[Lizard]

NZ Herald has unleashed some “Top Tier” stattage. http://www.nzherald.co.nz/sport/news/ar ... d=11705117

Here’s what they are hiding:

“Argentina will be aiming to record back-to-back wins in The Rugby Championship for the first time ever after beating South Africa in their last match.”

In fact Los Pumas have never recorded consecutive victories against the SH Big 3, whether taken collectively or individually.


“Julian Savea has scored eight tries against Argentina, his joint-most against a single opponent (level with England); should he score a hat-trick he would equal Richie McCaw and Ma'a Nonu (both 11 v Australia) for the most tries by a Tier One player against a single opponent.”

McCaw and Nonu’s mark of 11 tries v Aust (both in 55 matches) is 6th= on the list of most tries by a single player against one opponent. It’s well short of the overall record 19 that Daisuke Ohata (who else?) scored v Korea (in only 11 matches).

The top 5 are:
Ohata (Jap): 19 v Korea (11 matches)
Onozawa (Jap): 18 v Korea (10)
Meyer (Nam): 16 v Zim (11)
Jorge (Arg): 14 v Brazil (2)*
Nunez Piossek (Arg): 13 v Paraguay (2)**

Honourable mention to 8th= Ashley Billington who scored 10 for Hong Kong v Singapore in only one match (equal with C. Cullen v SA in 15 matches and Ohata again, 10 v Taiwan in 2 matches)


“Savea has scored four hat-tricks in his Test career so far, of Tier One players only Jeff Wilson has scored more (5).”

Again, Ohata and Onozawa top this overall list with 7. Savea is 4th= behind Wilson with Cullen, Rokocoko, Sempere Padilla (Spain) and Tupuailei (Japan).


“New Zealand have conceded fewer than 10 points in each of their last three Tests, the last time they pulled off a longer such streak was in November 2008 with wins against Scotland, Ireland, Wales, and England in Europe.”

This way off the overall NZ record of 15 consecutive tests conceding fewer than 10 points set in their first 15 tests (1903-1910) including the Originals 0-3 loss to Wales. Of course with 3-point tries, leather balls and no kicking tees, points were harder to come by. The four matches referred to by the Herald are the 5-point try era record.




*Winger Gustavo Jorge scored 6 (on debut in 1989) and then 8 tries (1993) in these two Sth American Championship mismatches. The aggregate team scores were 207 – 12.
**Winger Jose Maria Nunez Piossek also cashed in from the Sth Am Champs. He scored a mere 4 v Paraguay in 2002 (as did two of his team mates) but backed it up with 9 in the 2003 fixture, aggregate score 296 – 0. It’s fair to say the Pumas are better off in the Rugby Championship (not to mention their opposition!).

[Lizard]

Owen "Starting" Franks has equaled Salvatore Perugini's record of 83 test caps without ever scoring a try.

Perugini started 53 of his tests, compared to Franks 73, so I would put the NZer ahead on tie-breaker.

Another way to break the tie is to consider that Franks has dodged being at the sharp end of 318 tries scored by his team while was in the playing squad. (He must have worked bloody hard against Japan in 2011 when his team mates got over the line 13 times including Mealamu and Hore). Perugini only had to avoid 147 tries (also working hard to avoid any of the 13 against Portugal in 2006 including scores by both locks and the replacement hooker).

3rd place is J Slipper of Australia who is on 79 tryless caps. There a bunch of active players in the 60s.

[rowan]

Just as a matter of interest, the following figures represent the percentage of citizens registered as rugby players by country:

Tonga 14
Samoa 10.7
Fiji 7.2
New Zealand 3
Wales 2.4
Ireland 1.6
Swaziland 1
Australia 0.95
Scotland 0.7
England 0.68
South Africa 0.6
Namibia 0.6
Botswana 0.5
France 0.43
Sri Lanka 0.23
Uruguay 0.2
PNG 0.2
Hong Kong 0.18
Singapore 0.18
Georgia 0.17
Zimbabwe 0.17
Tunisia 0.16
Malaysia 0.16
Italy 0.14
Argentina 0.13
Solomans 0.13
Malta 0.1
Moldova 0.085
Japan 0.08
Madagascar 0.08
Zambia 0.08
Canada 0.07
Portugal 0.07
Belgium 0.07
Spain 0.065
Netherlands 0.065
Lithuania 0.06
Uganda 0.06
Senegal 0.05
Switzerland 0.05
Czech. 0.04
USA 0.034
Romania 0.034
Sweden 0.03
Denmark 0.03
Hungary 0.03
UAE 0.03
Kenya 0.02
Cameroon 0.02
Bulgaria 0.02
Serbia 0.02
Taiwan 0.02
Thailand 0.018
Poland 0.018
Russia 0.016
Kazakhstan 0.016
Morocco 0.015
Germany 0.012
Chile 0.01
Ivory Coast 0.009
Ukraine 0.005
Korea 0.0039
Brazil 0.0024
Pakistan 0.002
India 0.0007
China 0.00004

[Which Tyler]

Just as a matter of interest, the following figures represent the percentage of citizens registered as rugby players by country:

[rowan]

So this weekend's Rugby Championship fixtures are a repeat of last year's World Cup semi-finals. Will the results be any different? Probably not, except this time the Wallabies v Pumas clash might be closer than the All Blacks v Boks.

[rowan]

Julian & Ardie Savea become the first brothers to score for the All Blacks in the same test - ever!

[Lizard]

It's nuts, innit?


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[rowan]

Kiss me if I'm wrong, but I believe New Zealand has only lost to three nations at the World Cup - Australia, South Africa and France - and to each of them on 2 occasions.

Meanwhile, South Africa has played in just two World Cup finals, winning both, without either scoring or conceding a try during a combined total of over 3 hours' playing time.

[rowan]

Kiss me if I'm wrong, but I believe Los Pumas have given the All Blacks their closest match so far in this year's Rugby Championship.

Meanwhile, to state the obvious, today's win set a new record for NZ v SA (home & away) in terms of both the margin and the number of points scored, while extending their winning sequence against the Boks to 8. I didn't see it personally, however, opting for the Austria v Bosnia clash via live streaming, which was a much closer encounter.

& I'm now watching Peru v Ecuador...

[Lizard]

Winning streaks of 17

There’s been a lot of talk about the All Blacks winning streak and the “Tier 1” record of 17 straight wins. If you’re going to categorise record holders by tiers then it’s only fair to also consider the strength of the opposition. On this basis, the current All Blacks are perhaps the least impressive, as their streak includes 3 teams practically incapable of winning (“gimmes”), 7 teams you would expect to lose, and only 7 you would expect to possibly provide a real contest (I’ve tried to take into account varying strengths over time, eg FRA 1997-8 were contenders but in 2015-16 were expected to lose). The best I would say is the 1965-69 All Blacks who not only played no minnows at all, but remained undefeated for 3 years, 10 months and 7 days.

All Blacks 2015-16:
AUS x4
SA x3
ARG x3
WAL x3
FRA
TON
GEO
NAM
(3 gimmes, 7 expected, 7 contestable)

All Blacks 2013-14:
ENG 4
FRA 4
AUS 3
ARG 2
SA 2
IRE
JAP
(1 gimme, 7 expected, 9 contestable)

Springboks 1997-98:
AUS 3
IRE 3
NZ 2
ENG 2
FRA 2
SCO 2
WAL 2
ITA
(1 gimme, 7 expected, 9 contestable)

All Blacks 1965-69:
LIO 4
FRA 4
WAL 3
AUS 3
ENG
SCO
SA
(0 gimmes, 7 expected, 10 contestable)

[zer0]

The All Blacks winning run at Eden Park (last loss 3rd July 1994) is older than Anton Lienert-Brown (born 15th April 1995) and Damian McKenzie (born 20th April 1995).

[Lizard]

True, but both South Africa and Wales have a habit of occasionally losing to sides that they really should beat. The All Blacks haven't got that habit.

Teams that have beaten the Boks in test matches but not the All Blacks:*
Argentina x2
Ireland x6
Japan
Scotland x5
Wales (since 1953) x2

Teams that have beaten Wales but not the All Blacks:
Argentina x5
Canada
Fiji
Ireland x50
Italy x2
Romania x2
Samoa x4
Scotland x48


*Excluding teams NZ has never played eg South America & Cavaliers


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[rowan]

Japan beat Wales 23 - 8 two years ago in an official test

[Lizard]

Japan beat Wales 23 - 8 two years ago in an official test

I was sure I had put that in! Bugger.

[rowan]

Interesting story from the NZ Herald. I thought Cyprus' record was unofficial though, owing to the abundance of non-eligible expats in their team a the time

The All Blacks will set a rugby world record of sorts should they beat the Wallabies at Eden Park on Saturday night. But they won't hold THE record. Not yet.

Kieran Read's tier one side can make it 18 straight victories when they face 10-1 outsiders Australia.

But the real test record still belongs to real outsiders - the mighty men from Cyprus, population 1.2 million, who went on a 24-game winning run between 2008 and 2014.

Theirs' is a story of triumph that belongs in another age, another world.

"People have literally put their families on the line, wives have threatened divorces, some boys quit their jobs to play for the country," says their captain Marko Mladenovic, 25, an 86kg openside flanker raised in the coastal city of Limassol.

Speaking from Edinburgh where he lives while playing for Falkirk, Mladenovic - whose Serbian parents arrived in Cyprus seeking refuge from the war in Yugoslavia 25 years ago - reveals the other side of test rugby.

Mladenovic was an unremarkable 13-year-old footballer going off the rails following his parents' divorce when his mother spied a newspaper advertisement for rugby players. The game already had a natural base at British military bases retained after the 1960 treaty of independence. But a rugby-loving South African wanted to expand the game, thus the advert.

Just four years later, Mladenovic was making his test debut from the bench, away to Azerbaijan, in a "horror show" which turned out to be the first match of the 24-game streak.

"It is probably the most famous Cyprus rugby story - it was crazy," says Mladenovic, recalling the players paid $600 each to play that game.

"We had to wait two or three hours at border control to get into the country. They didn't want to issue us a visa.

There were brown stains on the sheets, some of the boys saw rats

"The rooms were really bad. There were brown stains on the sheets, some of the boys saw rats. And this is the hotel Azerbaijan rugby put forward to us. No one wanted to eat anything, in case we got sick. We had barely slept, and didn't eat on the day of the game.

"We rocked up to this ground which looked like something from a zombie film. Everyone was wearing black. The rugby posts had mattresses tied around them as protectors. This is an international rugby fixture? There were bits of grass here and there, but it was just a piece of land."

In a classic rags to riches contrast, the next match was in money-drenched Monaco, with a whole different class of rats. This six-year journey had a bit of everything.

It included the luckiest of wins against Bosnia and Herzegovina in 2009, when the home side's goalkicker missed four easy shots in deep snow and Cyprus escaped with an 8-6 victory.

In Latvia, the Mouflons - named after wild Cyprus sheep - ended up in the courtyard of a mental institution while searching for a practice area. Under international rules, the home side provides facilities for one training session. Dedicated Cyprus like to have two, and the players use Google maps to locate vacant land.

"We saw a bit of grass and started approaching. This guy comes up and says, 'do you know where you are? You shouldn't be here'," says Mladenovic.

Things have improved on the home front. When Cyprus entered the international arena in 2007, they were shunned by their national sports funding agency so played at the military bases, officially foreign territory. They now share a nice football stadium in Paphos, where one of the island's three rugby clubs are based. Funding has improved, but some players still offer to pay their way for away games.

Mladenovic made it all the way to Scottish premier league side Currie, and earns $130 a game for Falkirk which supplements his teacher aid wage.

"What made this possible is all we went through as a brotherhood. It hardens you up, going to Azerbaijan to play rugby," he says.

"So much has happened that you couldn't even script it. It was only something I started doing as a hobby."

But there are other home-grown successes like Mladenovic, including Fidias Efthymiou, good enough to make the Clermont Auvergne academy in France.

Cyprus have won promotion of sorts, playing in a geographically re-jigged European competition alongside Malta, Croatia, Andorra and Israel. A new generation of Cypriot players will try to emulate their predecessors, no easy task and especially when a player like giant forward Chris Dicomidis struggles to get released from his Welsh club.

Like their rugby forefathers, the latest Mouflons go into battle with a Spartan war cry etched on the back of their jerseys. In a nutshell, it's better to be carried home dead on your shield than to fling it away in defeat. Since Latvia ended the golden streak with a 39-20 win in late 2014, those defeats have mounted.

But these tiny national teams remain proud in the shadows. Lithuania, who held the old record of 18-straight wins, congratulated the Wallabies in 2012 when a draw in Brisbane stopped the All Blacks two short of matching the mark. The Cyprus run ended in Latvia, and was emotionally charged.

"It was a tough day - there were a few tears and it was hard to take," admits Mladenovic, who let business studies at Bristol University lapse when Friday exams clashed with a Saturday test.

"We thought we'd get a lot more recognition for our world record and, from that point of view, it was disappointing. But if the All Blacks go on to break it, fair enough. They are the best team of the last decade by far.

"A lot of people say we don't play the top nations, but all the challenges we had to overcome, to play the way we did, means the record is a big deal for us. As cheesy as it sounds, though, the best thing was the friendships we made, the stories, the things we went through.

"I get goose bumps when I think about the journey. It's just a celebration of a great bunch of players who did really well, who overcame adversity to represent their country."

Cyprus' run of 24 straight wins

2008
Azerbaijan 37 - 3 (away)
Monaco 24 - 3 (home)

2009
Slovakia 33 - 7 (home)
Bosnia and Herzegovina 8 - 6 (away)
Monaco 44 - 5 (away)

2010
Azerbaijan 59 - 0 (home)
Bosnia and Herzegovina 15 - 0 (home)
Greece 33 - 13 (away)

2011
Bulgaria 55 - 8 (home)
Finland 70 - 10 (home)
Luxembourg 50 - 0 (away)
Luxembourg 48 - 7 (home)

2012
Bulgaria 94 - 3 (away)
Greece 72 - 5 (home)
Finland 52 - 5 (away)
Austria 54 - 20 (away)
Slovenia 49 - 8 (home)

2013
Bulgaria 79 - 10 (home)
Hungary 16 - 15 (away)
Slovenia 34 - 3 (away)
Austria 22 - 8 (home)

2014
Bulgaria 46 - 15 (away)
Hungary 46 - 13 (home)
Andorra 30 - 10 (home)

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/sport/news/ar ... d=11732581

[zer0]

The whole 'first tier' caveat is a bit silly, so I think Cyprus should indeed be properly recognised for holding the record, regardless of who they played. In saying that, I would have no problem with the All Blacks taking it off them, should they manage it.

On a related note, if the All Blacks get through this year unbeaten, then tests 23, 24 and 25 would be against the Lions. Could make the series a bit more interesting.

[Lizard]

If you're going to have a "Tier 1" record, then matches against non-Tier 1 sides should not count. So we're only on 15 by my count.


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[Lizard]

Ah but they weren't when they set the record. They started at the bottom of the European promo/relegation system and climbed to their level of incompetence and then started losing.


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[Spy]

Goal-kicking has been the weak point of Beauden Barrett's otherwise stellar year. He was poor during Super Rugby, then seemed to get things to a good-enough level in the early part of the international season, although he never looked at ease, before having a mare toward the end of the RC. Apparently he's statistically the worst goal-kicker in international rugby: http://www.nzherald.co.nz/sport/news/ar ... d=11736133

There's plenty of stats in the article. One that caught my eye, and I find it hard to believe that it is true is: Barrett hasn't kicked a single kick beyond 30m this year. I assume that's the international season only, not super Rugby. Still, pretty surprising if it's true.

[rowan]

Personally, I find the attempts to de-legitimise the Cypriot record to be bullshit, especially when critiquing the quality of their opponents. They're playing teams that are about the same level as them? What's the issue?

Kiss me if I'm wrong, but I always thought the controversy was over the legitimacy of their own players, not their opponents - who appear entirely legitimate. Weren't Cyprus still using (illegitimate) expats at the time?

[canta_brian]

Goal-kicking has been the weak point of Beauden Barrett's otherwise stellar year. He was poor during Super Rugby, then seemed to get things to a good-enough level in the early part of the international season, although he never looked at ease, before having a mare toward the end of the RC. Apparently he's statistically the worst goal-kicker in international rugby: http://www.nzherald.co.nz/sport/news/ar ... d=11736133

There's plenty of stats in the article. One that caught my eye, and I find it hard to believe that it is true is: Barrett hasn't kicked a single kick beyond 30m this year. I assume that's the international season only, not super Rugby. Still, pretty surprising if it's true.

See I still don't see why we need to have a goalkicker wearing the 10 jersey. It seems one of the simplest things to shift the responsibility of. I don't necessarily know who is the best option within the team at the moment. but if it is not Barrett we should be able to choose another option or two I would have thought.

[Spy]

See I still don't see why we need to have a goalkicker wearing the 10 jersey. It seems one of the simplest things to shift the responsibility of. I don't necessarily know who is the best option within the team at the moment. but if it is not Barrett we should be able to choose another option or two I would have thought.

There's no reason, other than needing to specifically change the balance of the side in order to bring another kicker in, as I'm not aware of anyone else outside our 10's having any goal-kicking experience/ability. It'd be great to say "Hey, Ben Smith - you're kicking now", but I don't think either he nor anyone else in the side can kick.