If Russia invades Ukraine (more)...

[Zhivago]

[Sandydragon]

Also, this has huge implications in Africa. Wagner have become huge in delivering security in return for natural resource exploitation. If Wagner is shut down that might become sticky in a number of places.

[Mellsblue]

Also, this has huge implications in Africa. Wagner have become huge in delivering security in return for natural resource exploitation. If Wagner is shut down that might become sticky in a number of places.

Yep, was discussing this with the long suffering Mrs Mellsblue earlier. It could leave a huge and volatile vacuum.

[Sandydragon]

Also, this has huge implications in Africa. Wagner have become huge in delivering security in return for natural resource exploitation. If Wagner is shut down that might become sticky in a number of places.

Yep, was discussing this with the long suffering Mrs Mellsblue earlier. It could leave a huge and volatile vacuum.

My wife is also suffering today. She has just pointedly put her headphones on to listen to a podcast.

[Sandydragon]

Also, this has huge implications in Africa. Wagner have become huge in delivering security in return for natural resource exploitation. If Wagner is shut down that might become sticky in a number of places.

Yep, was discussing this with the long suffering Mrs Mellsblue earlier. It could leave a huge and volatile vacuum.

My wife is also suffering today. She has just pointedly put her headphones on to listen to a podcast.

[Sandydragon]

It appears that the Wagner forces advancing on Moscow are a smaller mobile element who are avoiding conflict and just pressing on. Very risky play but also perhaps the best chance of success Prigozhin has to take the Putin regime out before Putin can mobilise loyal forces.

[Sandydragon]

BBC news interviewing a British MP who is suggesting that Putin has fled the Kremlin. Could just be bollocks to spread a useful rumour.

[Which Tyler]

Biggest question for me is where's Russia air force?
As far as I'm aware, Wagner doesn't have one - Russia's hasn't done much in Ukraine, and they wouldn't take long to reach and hit the Wagner column once outside of cities.

[Mellsblue]

Also, this has huge implications in Africa. Wagner have become huge in delivering security in return for natural resource exploitation. If Wagner is shut down that might become sticky in a number of places.

Yep, was discussing this with the long suffering Mrs Mellsblue earlier. It could leave a huge and volatile vacuum.

My wife is also suffering today. She has just pointedly put her headphones on to listen to a podcast.

Ha! My wife enjoys the chat. Her degree was Politics and IR.

[Which Tyler]

BBC news interviewing a British MP who is suggesting that Putin has fled the Kremlin. Could just be bollocks to spread a useful rumour.

Seems to be a lot of planes leaving Moscow without transponders on - lots of rumours.
Billionaires leaving with Bullion, Medvedev getting out of dodge, Putin being turned away by Kazakhstan, Putin bailing out to St Petersburg... It's just all f***ed with no real knowledge of anything.

[Which Tyler]

Ha! My wife enjoys the chat. Her degree was Politics and IR.

Mine does not, and is grateful for the rugby distracting me

[Which Tyler]

Not something I had even thought of.
I preferred not thinking about it.

[Sandydragon]

Biggest question for me is where's Russia air force?
As far as I'm aware, Wagner doesn't have one - Russia's hasn't done much in Ukraine, and they wouldn't take long to reach and hit the Wagner column once outside of cities.

So the Wagner column has air defence and there have been some attacks reported. But I agree, the Russian air force should be able to whittle the column down well before it reaches Moscow. Are the regular forces watching and waiting? Has Prigozhin done a deal for them to stay out of it?

[Sandydragon]

Not something I had even thought of.
I preferred not thinking about it.

They used to have a heavy armoured division near Moscow to repel and coup attempts, so where is that? If it’s been redeployed over the last few years then I can’t see the Moscow militia and various paramilitary police units repelling armour

[Zhivago]

[Zhivago]

Biggest question for me is where's Russia air force?
As far as I'm aware, Wagner doesn't have one - Russia's hasn't done much in Ukraine, and they wouldn't take long to reach and hit the Wagner column once outside of cities.

Russian ground-to-air air defence is rather capable, and in Wagner's hands also. 7 shot down today.

[Sandydragon]

Shit or bust in the next 12 hours or so based on to at rate if advance

[Sandydragon]

An option i suppose for Putin is to fall back to St Petersburg, rally loyal forces and fight back. But that assumes forces want to be rallied behind him

[Puja]

Biggest question for me is where's Russia air force?
As far as I'm aware, Wagner doesn't have one - Russia's hasn't done much in Ukraine, and they wouldn't take long to reach and hit the Wagner column once outside of cities.

Russian ground-to-air air defence is rather capable, and in Wagner's hands also. 7 shot down today.

Considering that it's been Russia's helicopters that've been causing the Ukranian advance so much grief by taking on the MBTs, it's a huge boost for them to be elsewhere (and being shot down right now). I would be surprised if Ukraine weren't currently gathering every single one of their reserve Western-armed battle groups and planning an Abrams-headed charge towards Melitopol for the minute the sun sets and their night-vision comes into play.

Puja

[Which Tyler]

And allegedly, just like that, the coup is off.

Today has been... strange

[Galfon]

Can't see the Wagnerites making their way to Russia from Syria, Africa etc to assist in the 'coup' , turning back just yet.
Meanwhile Ukr forces have reportedly ferried tanks over the Dnieper today and fresh fighting ongoing.
Keeping R. morale up will be even tougher now.
Sounds like YP wants a bloodless coup..

[Sandydragon]

Not a bang but a whimper.

Prigozhin has blinked. But whilst Putin remains in post but less in charge than he was. And what do they do with Wagner now? Russian morale at the front can only shaken.

[Puja]

Wild. Makes absolutely no sense to me. Even if he's worried that it's not going well enough, surely you can't stop a coup halfway and expect to survive? You come for the king, you'd best not miss, etc.

Puja

[Sandydragon]

Wild. Makes absolutely no sense to me. Even if he's worried that it's not going well enough, surely you can't stop a coup halfway and expect to survive? You come for the king, you'd best not miss, etc.

Puja

Promise of clemency for Wagner troops apparently. Although Prigozin is surely a dead man walking.

I think he realised that the army wasn’t going to join him and that he chances were increasingly remote so decided to run back before things got totally out of hand.

[Which Tyler]

​Jeff Prigozhin?