If Russia invades Ukraine (more)...

[Sandydragon]

The shelling of a nuclear power plant is idiotic and inarguably a war crime.

FTFY

https://ihl-databases.icrc.org/ihl/WebART/470-750071

I was giving benefit of the doubt to the fact that it could have been accidental. But seeing some video images suggests that it was a number of shells that hit. Targeting utilities wants is a no-no in itself, even before you start to consider proportionality or the potential lack of military targets.

[Sandydragon]

So what's the next move? Pretty clear that nothing done so far is going to stop him. Even if we think he'll get toppled in the mid-term, in the short term, Ukraine and its people will be devastated.

Add it to the list.

And yes, these things take time, and he's essentially untouchable whilst he's in power (and will probably be dead before he has a chance to reach the Hague when he's out of power).
What can we do? Is getting involved (which would still take time to do - though hopefully less time than it would have taken 2 weeks ago) worth the risk nuclear war between Russia and NATO?

I don't have any answers.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/ ... on-ukraine

ICC launches war crimes investigation over Russian invasion of Ukraine


International criminal court inquiry has been expedited by unprecedented number of countries backing move

A war crimes investigation has been launched into Russia’s invasion of Ukraine after an unprecedented number of countries backed the move and Boris Johnson called the military intervention “abhorrent”.

Karim Khan, the chief prosecutor for the international criminal court (ICC), said he would begin work “as rapidly as possible” to look for possible crimes against humanity or genocide committed in Ukraine.

The referral for investigation by 39 countries – including the UK – will shave several months off the process because it allows Khan to bypass the need to seek the approval of the court in The Hague.

ARTICLE CONTINUES...

In the absence of a real-life James Bond, assassination from without is... a touch unrealistic.
Given his complete control of Russian media, what I understand is access to all Russian social media, the locking up protestors, and the new (?) Russian treason laws - a 1917 style revolution from within is... a touch unrealistic.
Which leaves us two options - a palace coup, which "we" in the West might be able to influence
Being taken to see the Moskva river by the Praetorian Guard, which "we" in the West probably can't do much about

The solution to getting rid of Putin must come from within Russia. His control over the state media means that the Russian populace isn't getting good information. I'd be looking at ways that we can reach out to and influence that population and get them some facts. The internet is one means but that's (from my understanding) just going to influence the younger generation. Some covert radio stations could be useful. Hacking the state Russian media could have an impact. Lots of psyops opportunities there, especially with propaganda gifts like firing at a nuclear power plant.

Not a quick response but it might increase the number of protestors.

I think we can rule out direct military action, unless it looks like we have nothing to lose, i.e. Putin ups the ante by going nuclear.

[Puja]

This is just nightmarish: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60600487

We think we've got it bad with people brainwashed by the Daily Mail, but at least there is an ability to get an opposing viewpoint here. It's a completely alternative reality over there, with the only news channels willing to report anything but the Kremlin's fiction of "military targets only, just helping the Donbas, removing the unpopular Nazis and welcomed by the Ukranian people" having just been permanently closed.

Puja

[Sandydragon]

This is just nightmarish: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60600487

We think we've got it bad with people brainwashed by the Daily Mail, but at least there is an ability to get an opposing viewpoint here. It's a completely alternative reality over there, with the only news channels willing to report anything but the Kremlin's fiction of "military targets only, just helping the Donbas, removing the unpopular Nazis and welcomed by the Ukranian people" having just been permanently closed.

Puja

There used to be posters on here who thought RT was far more accurate than the BBC. Putin has learnt the lessons of the Cold War well, or at least the ones regarding propaganda.

[Son of Mathonwy]

This is just nightmarish: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60600487

We think we've got it bad with people brainwashed by the Daily Mail, but at least there is an ability to get an opposing viewpoint here. It's a completely alternative reality over there, with the only news channels willing to report anything but the Kremlin's fiction of "military targets only, just helping the Donbas, removing the unpopular Nazis and welcomed by the Ukranian people" having just been permanently closed.

Puja

Those reports are eerily similar to my attempts to explain to my parents that Brexit might have negative consequences. The Mail can brainwash with the best of them.

[Which Tyler]

Just to highlight...
Switzerland: 371
United Kingdom: 16

[Sandydragon]

This is just nightmarish: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60600487

We think we've got it bad with people brainwashed by the Daily Mail, but at least there is an ability to get an opposing viewpoint here. It's a completely alternative reality over there, with the only news channels willing to report anything but the Kremlin's fiction of "military targets only, just helping the Donbas, removing the unpopular Nazis and welcomed by the Ukranian people" having just been permanently closed.

Puja

Those reports are eerily similar to my attempts to explain to my parents that Brexit might have negative consequences. The Mail can brainwash with the best of them.

That same thought occurred to me earlier. Brexit now a taboo subject between my parents and I.

[cashead]

I’m sure the tankies like the ones that used to occupy this forum can appreciate the delightful irony of an autocrat who has so meticulously crafted a strongman image getting the shit knocked out of him on the work stage by a former stand-up comic who voiced Paddington Bear.

[Which Tyler]

The new British tradition of clapping instead of helping.

Note, we're still not letting in refugees unless they'd have been let in anyway (having family with settled status)
Note, we're still not actually seizing assets of Putin & his oligarchs
Note, we're still giving Russian companies 30 days notice before sanctions are actually imposed


Mr Prystaiko would have seen our parliament in action on Wednesday, and heard BJ constantly defending and dodging questions about his lack of action - I don't recall anything from that session that would have made him feel optimistic about Britain's response to the crisis.

But I'm sure he appreciated the applause.

[J Dory]

The new British tradition of clapping instead of helping.

Note, we're still not letting in refugees unless they'd have been let in anyway (having family with settled status)
Note, we're still not actually seizing assets of Putin & his oligarchs
Note, we're still giving Russian companies 30 days notice before sanctions are actually imposed


Mr Prystaiko would have seen our parliament in action on Wednesday, and heard BJ constantly defending and dodging questions about his lack of action - I don't recall anything from that session that would have made him feel optimistic about Britain's response to the crisis.

But I'm sure he appreciated the applause.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-60618818

[morepork]

What a pack of thundercunts. They all hide behind beneficiary bashing while sucking the life out of the whole planet. Fuck these people.

[Zhivago]

The numbers are fairly even (if anything they are in Ukraine's favour when considering mobilization), the main difference is that Russia has superior air power.

History is the best example, conceding territory and retreating to redoubts before launching a counter offensive is how the Red Army defeated the Nazis on the Eastern Front.

Erm, I’d suggest that the majority of Soviet troops were hammered in place before fresh forces were able to get to grips with the Germans. Millions surrounded and taken prisoner suggests they weren’t pulling back but we’re out thought and out fought before learning how to fight on the same terms, or at least effectively.

That said, not letting your best forces get destroyed on day one is always a good idea and cities are very defensible. Much will depend on how aggressive the Russians are when they come up against heavy fighting and how much care they take to avoid unnecessary civilian casualties.

I accept that the Soviets were taken by surprise during the early part of the Eastern Front, but one of the best examples of defeating Blitzkrieg is the Battle of Kursk.

Apparently the Ukrainians are carrying out a defensive strategy called 'maneuver defence'

[Son of Mathonwy]

The new British tradition of clapping instead of helping.

Note, we're still not letting in refugees unless they'd have been let in anyway (having family with settled status)
Note, we're still not actually seizing assets of Putin & his oligarchs
Note, we're still giving Russian companies 30 days notice before sanctions are actually imposed


Mr Prystaiko would have seen our parliament in action on Wednesday, and heard BJ constantly defending and dodging questions about his lack of action - I don't recall anything from that session that would have made him feel optimistic about Britain's response to the crisis.

But I'm sure he appreciated the applause.

These arseholes can still surprise me. I am so fucking naïve. I really thought this was a moment where doing the right thing rather than creating the appearance of doing the right thing was actually happening with this government. Putin knows who his real buddies/assets are. Just wait till Trump 2024.

[cashead]

Ruble is collapsing, can’t withdraw from ATMs, workers are striking over unpaid wages and both VISA and MasterCard have pulled out of Russia.

Seems like the Ukrainians held out long enough for the sanctions to hit. You love to see it.

Also love to see Vlad get capital “F” Fucked.

[cashead]

Per the Business Insider

Kremlin staff didn’t expect Putin to invade Ukraine and were shocked by the severity of Western sanctions, report says
Bill Bostock
Mar. 4, 2022, 12:44 PM

• Kremlin officials told the Russian outlet Agency they didn’t know Putin was going to invade Ukraine.
• The people said the Kremlin only prepared for smaller sanctions over its recognition of Luhansk and Donetsk.
• “Everything is fucked,” a source close to Putin’s administration told Agency.

Kremlin officials say they didn’t know Russian President Vladimir Putin would invade Ukraine, and were shocked by the severity of Western sanctions imposed over it, the independent Russian investigative outlet Agency reported.

One unnamed senior official said people in the Kremlin “did not know” that it would be an all-out invasion and that many were shocked when news of the military assault broke, the outlet said.

In the run-up to the invasion, Putin’s cabinet had only prepared to deal with Western sanctions introduced over Russia’s decision to recognize the independence of the Ukrainian regions of Luhansk and Donetsk on February 21, not for an invasion, a source close to Putin’s administration told Agency.

After Russia invaded, countries including the US and UK, as well as the EU sanctioned Russian entities and individuals, seizing assets belonging to those closest to Putin, and ejecting Russian banks from the SWIFT global financial system.

The Kremlin is particularly concerned by its ousting from SWIFT, the freezing of Russian foreign reserves, including by the US, and the exit of a string of Western companies from Russia, Agency reported.

“Everything is fucked,” a source close to Putin’s administration told the outlet.

Before the invasion, one of the officials told Agency, Kremlin officials held several meetings about sanctions and that stress tests were conducted on large companies in case Russia was disconnected from SWIFT.

An official went on to tell Agency that Kremlin officials cannot resign from their posts because it would be seen as a betrayal. “You can only quit to prison,” they said.

The report comes as Western officials warned that Putin was so furious about the sanctions that he may target civilian targets in Ukraine to “set an example,” The Washington Post reported Tuesday.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine entered its ninth day on Friday. Russian forces seized its first major city, the port city of Kherson, on Wednesday, and continued to subject the cities of Mariupol and Kyiv to heavy shelling.

Russian forces seized the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant on Friday morning, Ukrainian officials said. It is Europe’s largest nuclear plant.

[cashead]

I hope he said something like "special delivery"

[cashead]

[cashead]

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ru ... 022-03-05/

Russia calls on EU, NATO to stop arms supplies to Ukraine

March 5 (Reuters) - Russia's foreign ministry called on European Union and NATO countries on Saturday to "stop pumping weapons" to Ukraine, the Russian RIA news agency said.

Ahahahaha, goddamn.

[cashead]

Meanwhile, even before companies like Remington started chucking their ammo at Ukraine to use on the Russians, the US had spent the last year or so secretly pumping them with roughly $1billion in arms, equipment and training - including giving them gear that was lying around not being used.

[Puja]

Meanwhile, even before companies like Remington started chucking their ammo at Ukraine to use on the Russians, the US had spent the last year or so secretly pumping them with roughly $1billion in arms, equipment and training - including giving them gear that was lying around not being used.

Probably a godsend to the inhabitants of US cities that they've found somewhere else for their military surplus to go other than giving it to their police.

Puja

[Which Tyler]

Meanwhile, even before companies like Remington started chucking their ammo at Ukraine to use on the Russians, the US had spent the last year or so secretly pumping them with roughly $1billion in arms, equipment and training - including giving them gear that was lying around not being used.

Probably a godsend to the inhabitants of US cities that they've found somewhere else for their military surplus to go other than giving it to their police.

Puja

[Sandydragon]

Erm, I’d suggest that the majority of Soviet troops were hammered in place before fresh forces were able to get to grips with the Germans. Millions surrounded and taken prisoner suggests they weren’t pulling back but we’re out thought and out fought before learning how to fight on the same terms, or at least effectively.

That said, not letting your best forces get destroyed on day one is always a good idea and cities are very defensible. Much will depend on how aggressive the Russians are when they come up against heavy fighting and how much care they take to avoid unnecessary civilian casualties.

I accept that the Soviets were taken by surprise during the early part of the Eastern Front, but one of the best examples of defeating Blitzkrieg is the Battle of Kursk.

Apparently the Ukrainians are carrying out a defensive strategy called 'maneuver defence'

That will be the influence of the nato training. The Russians would be expected to rely on huge firepower to overwhelm defences (and it looks like they are reverting to type). Holding ground indefinitely would just give them targets. Better to keep moving although it takes good discipline training and comms to do that. Our training has worked well it seems

[Galfon]

VP has warned Western leaders that the economic punishments being heaped on Russia are 'akin to a declaration of war'.. he'll find justification.
Also cautioned Ukrainian leaders that continued resistance could call 'into question the future of Ukrainian statehood'..
Yup, 'heads I win, tails you lose' chaps..

Wonder how long it will be before he stops the flow of Russians leaving their country for Finland and elsewhere.

Zelensky wants Polish Mig-29's; just re-badge 'em etc....seems reasonable.

[Sandydragon]

The new British tradition of clapping instead of helping.

Note, we're still not letting in refugees unless they'd have been let in anyway (having family with settled status)
Note, we're still not actually seizing assets of Putin & his oligarchs
Note, we're still giving Russian companies 30 days notice before sanctions are actually imposed


Mr Prystaiko would have seen our parliament in action on Wednesday, and heard BJ constantly defending and dodging questions about his lack of action - I don't recall anything from that session that would have made him feel optimistic about Britain's response to the crisis.

But I'm sure he appreciated the applause.

These arseholes can still surprise me. I am so fucking naïve. I really thought this was a moment where doing the right thing rather than creating the appearance of doing the right thing was actually happening with this government. Putin knows who his real buddies/assets are. Just wait till Trump 2024.

No. Sadly Boris is just
Making a show of saying the right thing but not actually doing that much. He knows Biden is the one who is calling the shot with Macron and Schulz next in level of importance. But he can appear a statesmanlike hawk whilst failing to grapple with the billions of dodgy Russian money sloshing about the government.

[Zhivago]

I accept that the Soviets were taken by surprise during the early part of the Eastern Front, but one of the best examples of defeating Blitzkrieg is the Battle of Kursk.

Apparently the Ukrainians are carrying out a defensive strategy called 'maneuver defence'

That will be the influence of the nato training. The Russians would be expected to rely on huge firepower to overwhelm defences (and it looks like they are reverting to type). Holding ground indefinitely would just give them targets. Better to keep moving although it takes good discipline training and comms to do that. Our training has worked well it seems

Training on the side of the Russians also key
https://www.popularmechanics.com/milita ... explained/