If Russia invades Ukraine (more)...

[Sandydragon]

The NACP, Ukraine's anti-corruption watchdog has thanked the Russian Minister of Defence, Sergei Shoygu for his corruption. According to them, they've found that the protective barriers on the Russian T-72 and T-80 tanks are made from cardboard egg trays, and the Russian bullet-proof vests that they've found in captured APCs are made of cardboard.

While a grain of salt is needed, it's also entirely plausible under Shoygu's command, when he's been busy with opening up the military to influence from various lobby groups and grifters - something which his predecessor, Anatoly Serdyukov, was deposed for fighting and reducing.

Russia has also lost nine colonels and generals in the two weeks since this war has started, and it's safe to assume a proportional number of NCOs are being killed each week as well.

It would explain why they still haven't taken Kharkiv, despite it being, like, 50 feet from the border.


The EU have also just basically kicked the doors open and have loudly announced they're organising a welcoming party for the Ukrainians, so, uh, good going there, Vladimir.

I'm always cautious to take Ukranian proclamations with a pinch of salt, on the basis that they're generally what I want to hear and that makes me credulous, but that's entertaining if true.

There's no way the EU will let Ukraine in any time this decade though. They are so far away on so many economic, corruption, democratic, and legal metrics for EU accession that not even a very creative interpretation of very liberally bent rules would allow them access. Even with all the sympathy in the world, there's no legal route that could let them in, especially while simultaneously denying Montenegro, Albania, Macedonia, and Serbia, which are all far closer (and have been in the queue since 2008!). Plus, it requires every EU country to vote to accept them, and there'll be a few that are too worried about the backsliding on rights and democracy of the likes of Poland and Hungary to be waving in another Eastern European country. Not to mention that the EU has a mutual defence clause and there's bound to be a few that don't fancy having a war with Russia (Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia for a start!).

Puja

Ukraine have been given candidate status, and while full membership is still several years away, it looks like step one has been accelerated - probably due to some pressing matters going on within their borders.

The Russian NCO cadre is poor. It puts a lot more onto officers. And conscript armies are a different beast to a professional one.

One of the biggest problems for the Germans after the initial stages of Operation Barbarossa was that hundreds of their NCOs were getting killed each week, with no way of replacing them with equally experienced men. Unless Putin was stashing away all of his good officers in Siberia, the organisational efficiency of their invasion force has little to no hope of rebounding.

Their prospects might improve with the weather but there are some serious weaknesses being exposed in Russian leadership at junior levels and also in their staff work. Modern warfare demands good logistics and it just ain’t happening.

[cashead]

I'm always cautious to take Ukranian proclamations with a pinch of salt, on the basis that they're generally what I want to hear and that makes me credulous, but that's entertaining if true.

There's no way the EU will let Ukraine in any time this decade though. They are so far away on so many economic, corruption, democratic, and legal metrics for EU accession that not even a very creative interpretation of very liberally bent rules would allow them access. Even with all the sympathy in the world, there's no legal route that could let them in, especially while simultaneously denying Montenegro, Albania, Macedonia, and Serbia, which are all far closer (and have been in the queue since 2008!). Plus, it requires every EU country to vote to accept them, and there'll be a few that are too worried about the backsliding on rights and democracy of the likes of Poland and Hungary to be waving in another Eastern European country. Not to mention that the EU has a mutual defence clause and there's bound to be a few that don't fancy having a war with Russia (Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia for a start!).

Puja

Ukraine have been given candidate status, and while full membership is still several years away, it looks like step one has been accelerated - probably due to some pressing matters going on within their borders.

I think candidate status is just, "has applied, hasn't been immediately rejected."

Puja

According to Nauseda, "the process started."

[Galfon]

NLAW anti-tank weapon (made in Belfast), Turkish drone technology in form of the relatively cheap but proven Bayraktar TB2
https://www.ft.com/content/7529a862-792 ... f50747d1f6
and possibly soon the British portable SAM 'Starstreak'...
New weapons of war that are bound to hurt Russ. (surprised to see the Turk. drone not on the Russ. side, but appears to be a commercial thing).
It's a race, as always.

[cashead]

Why would the Turks side with the Russians? They just had a proxy war with them, through the Azerbaijanis and the Armenians.

[Galfon]

Why would the Turks side with the Russians? They just had a proxy war with them, through the Azerbaijanis and the Armenians.

and forgot, Turkey is a member of NATO..; Erdogan appears to plough his own furrow in many respects, and like Russ. has designs of broader influence in his region harking back to the Ottoman days.Also keen to progress EU status. They co-operated over the post ISIS plays in N.Iraq & Syria.He's spinning alot of plates.

chink of light with negs., maybe..
https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-war- ... s-12564880

[Sandydragon]

Why would the Turks side with the Russians? They just had a proxy war with them, through the Azerbaijanis and the Armenians.

and forgot, Turkey is a member of NATO..; Erdogan appears to plough his own furrow in many respects, and like Russ. has designs of broader influence in his region harking back to the Ottoman days.Also keen to progress EU status. They co-operated over the post ISIS plays in N.Iraq & Syria.He's spinning alot of plates.

Erdogan is playing a game which risks upsetting everyone. He annoyed a lot of his Nato allies over Syria and the whole coup business, then by buying weapons from Russia. Now he risks annoying Russia some more by supporting Ukraine. He is absolutely trying to improve Turkeys strategic influence but might find himself with no friends left.

[Puja]

NLAW anti-tank weapon (made in Belfast), Turkish drone technology in form of the relatively cheap but proven Bayraktar TB2
https://www.ft.com/content/7529a862-792 ... f50747d1f6
and possibly soon the British portable SAM 'Starstreak'...
New weapons of war that are bound to hurt Russ. (surprised to see the Turk. drone not on the Russ. side, but appears to be a commercial thing).
It's a race, as always.

Turkey have already invoked a treaty barring the Dardanelles (and thus the whole Black Sea and access to Crimea and south Ukraine) to Russian warships, citing them as belligerents who are not allowed to pass. They've been on Ukraine's side from the beginning.

Puja

[Son of Mathonwy]

It's slightly depressing to hear the Zelenskiy moving a little towards agreeing not to join NATO, if perhaps understandable in the circumstances. I think his exact wording is more ambiguous than the reporting suggests, though.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/ ... ening-grip


And I'd love to think that Johnson's words on the matter were part of an internationally agreed strategy to find a diplomatic solution, rather than some off-the-cuff shit which undermines Ukraine. I wonder which it is?

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/vi ... soon-video

[Puja]

It's slightly depressing to hear the Zelenskiy moving a little towards agreeing not to join NATO, if perhaps understandable in the circumstances. I think his exact wording is more ambiguous than the reporting suggests, though.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/ ... ening-grip


And I'd love to think that Johnson's words on the matter were part of an internationally agreed strategy to find a diplomatic solution, rather than some off-the-cuff shit which undermines Ukraine. I wonder which it is?

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/vi ... soon-video

Ignoring Boris still being allowed to speak in public, I've read articles saying that any peace process has to give Putin something he can spin as a victory and ruling out joining NATO is the thing that Ukraine can most easily give up. I'd imagine this ends with Russia getting Ukraine to cede Crimea and Donbas and agree not to join NATO in return for territorial guarantees and freedom to pursue joining the EU.

Puja

[Zhivago]

It's slightly depressing to hear the Zelenskiy moving a little towards agreeing not to join NATO, if perhaps understandable in the circumstances. I think his exact wording is more ambiguous than the reporting suggests, though.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/ ... ening-grip


And I'd love to think that Johnson's words on the matter were part of an internationally agreed strategy to find a diplomatic solution, rather than some off-the-cuff shit which undermines Ukraine. I wonder which it is?

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/vi ... soon-video

Ignoring Boris still being allowed to speak in public, I've read articles saying that any peace process has to give Putin something he can spin as a victory and ruling out joining NATO is the thing that Ukraine can most easily give up. I'd imagine this ends with Russia getting Ukraine to cede Crimea and Donbas and agree not to join NATO in return for territorial guarantees and freedom to pursue joining the EU.

Puja

Hopefully Ukraine will negotiate some kind of settlement for Crimea, maybe some kind of joint governance set up.

[Banquo]

It's slightly depressing to hear the Zelenskiy moving a little towards agreeing not to join NATO, if perhaps understandable in the circumstances. I think his exact wording is more ambiguous than the reporting suggests, though.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/ ... ening-grip


And I'd love to think that Johnson's words on the matter were part of an internationally agreed strategy to find a diplomatic solution, rather than some off-the-cuff shit which undermines Ukraine. I wonder which it is?

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/vi ... soon-video

Ignoring Boris still being allowed to speak in public, I've read articles saying that any peace process has to give Putin something he can spin as a victory and ruling out joining NATO is the thing that Ukraine can most easily give up. I'd imagine this ends with Russia getting Ukraine to cede Crimea and Donbas and agree not to join NATO in return for territorial guarantees and freedom to pursue joining the EU.

Puja

Hopefully Ukraine will negotiate some kind of settlement for Crimea, maybe some kind of joint governance set up.

Yeah...or free elections.

[Galfon]

Ukr not member of NATO and Neutral status could be seen as success for VP at home, with some sort of fudge for Crimea & Donbass that looks like further consolidation.
Unfortunately many of his country's bridges built with the West over the years are now ash.

[Mellsblue]

https://m.dw.com/en/ukrainian-president ... a-61154543

With English translator.

[cashead]

Voznesensk just repelled a Russian attack, in a key victory for the Ukrainians in the south of the nation. The Russian war machine, with better logistics than the suck-ass failure junkies up north got their shit pushed in by a detachment of the Ukrainian military and a civilian volunteers, armed with RPGs, Javelins and artillery. The city has also seized 30 of the 43 vehicles that the Russian troops had, as well as what's left of a Mi-24 helicopter that they shot down.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/ukraine-ru ... lewebshare


Talk shit, get hit, Putin.

[Mellsblue]

The final sentence. Fucking hell.

[Puja]

Jesus fuck. Saying the quiet bit loudly.

Puja

[cashead]

Chinese state-affiliated media reporting on Russian war crimes

[Which Tyler]

Chinese state-affiliated media reporting on Russian war crimes

Good point that - well spotted.

Elsewhere:

It's not paranoia if they really are out to get you!

[morepork]

That is essentially the Republican Party platform in the USA. No wonder they are reluctant to criticise him.

[cashead]

Chinese state-affiliated media reporting on Russian war crimes

Good point that - well spotted.

It really can't be overstated how significant this really is, since China is supposed to be "friendly" with Russia. What this does is confirm, to some extent, that China is also getting sick of Putin's shit and explains why they've been so gun shy about supporting the Russians outside of some perfunctory gestures.

[cashead]

The final sentence. Fucking hell.

Goddamn, Putin looks like shit.

Also, nice fuhrerbunker speech Putin, you sack-ass goblin bitch.

[Stom]

Chinese state-affiliated media reporting on Russian war crimes

That tweet appears to have gone. What did it say?

[Which Tyler]

Chinese state-affiliated media reporting on Russian war crimes

That tweet appears to have gone. What did it say?

Was reporting on shooting civilians lining up for food aid

[Zhivago]

Russians forcibly deporting Ukrainians in Mariupol to Russia and seizing their Ukrainian documents and giving them Russian documentation.

This is a war crime. A violation of Article 49 of the 4th Geneva Convention, which states clearly:

Individual or mass forcible transfers, as well as deportations of protected persons from occupied territory to the territory of the Occupying Power or to that of any other country, occupied or not, are prohibited, regardless of their motive.

And under the Rome Statute, it is listed as a 'crime against humanity' in Article 7.

When all the actions of the Russians are considered in their totality, along with their propaganda justifying them, it might well become clear that a genocide of the Ukrainian people is taking place.

[Son of Mathonwy]

Russians forcibly deporting Ukrainians in Mariupol to Russia and seizing their Ukrainian documents and giving them Russian documentation. This is a war crime. A violation of Article 49 of the 4th Geneva Convention, which states clearly:

Individual or mass forcible transfers, as well as deportations of protected persons from occupied territory to the territory of the Occupying Power or to that of any other country, occupied or not, are prohibited, regardless of their motive.

Ethnic cleansing. Or genocide, if they send them somewhere cold enough.