Perspective

[Lizard]

If you were disappointed with Wales’ showing in June, you might want to note that Wales has the lowest average margin of defeat against NZ this year. No team has scored more tries per game against the All Blacks and only the Wallabies have conceded fewer (and they still have one match to go).

It’s a good thing that you are playing all 3 of the other RC teams in November as the rankings are a bit out of kilter, based on this analysis and the fact that Ireland only beat SA once in three attempts (current rankings: SA 3, AUS 4, WAL 5, IRE 6, ARG 7).

2016 results for NZ:

NZ v Wales
Average score 40.3 – 16.3 (margin 24)
Tries per game: 5.3 – 1.7

NZ v Wallabies
Average score 35.5 – 8.5 (margin 27)
Tries per game: 5 – 0.5

NZ v Springboks
Average score 49.0 – 14.0 (margin 35)
Tries per game: 7.5 – 0.5

NZ v Pumas
Average score 46.5 – 19.5 (margin 27)
Tries per game: 6.5 – 1.5

[WaspInWales]

Also worth noting that the tests against Wales were the first ABs test for just under 8 months.

I wonder how the scoreboard would look if Wales played them next weekend?

It's massively impressive that they've lost quite a few key players and can still rip teams apart with apparent ease. They've scored for fun in the RC.

[Lizard]

The main differences since June are the rise of Beauden Barrett over Aaron Cruden (not a real surprise) and the introduction of Anton Lienert-Brown into the backline (a bit of a bolter).

I'm not sure they would do enormously better against Wales now. There has possibly been some improvement in defence across the backline that had come with stability and familiarity.


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[Son of Mathonwy]

If you were disappointed with Wales’ showing in June, you might want to note that Wales has the lowest average margin of defeat against NZ this year. No team has scored more tries per game against the All Blacks and only the Wallabies have conceded fewer (and they still have one match to go).

It’s a good thing that you are playing all 3 of the other RC teams in November as the rankings are a bit out of kilter, based on this analysis and the fact that Ireland only beat SA once in three attempts (current rankings: SA 3, AUS 4, WAL 5, IRE 6, ARG 7).

2016 results for NZ:

NZ v Wales
Average score 40.3 – 16.3 (margin 24)
Tries per game: 5.3 – 1.7

NZ v Wallabies
Average score 35.5 – 8.5 (margin 27)
Tries per game: 5 – 0.5

NZ v Springboks
Average score 49.0 – 14.0 (margin 35)
Tries per game: 7.5 – 0.5

NZ v Pumas
Average score 46.5 – 19.5 (margin 27)
Tries per game: 6.5 – 1.5

11 June NZ 39-21 Wales
18 June NZ 36-22 Wales
25 June NZ 46-6 Wales

Was the last test a blip - one test too many for a tired Wales?
Or was NZ clearing the rust & cobwebs in the first two tests before showing their true form in the third?

Perhaps the fairest way IS to take the average as you've done. Yep, I'll settle for that. Bring on the AIs.

[Lizard]

I would call the last test a "blip." Tired Wales facing a dead rubber with 0 expectations. If it had been 1-1 going in it would have different for sure.


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[Son of Mathonwy]

I would call the last test a "blip." Tired Wales facing a dead rubber with 0 expectations. If it had been 1-1 going in it would have different for sure.

Hope so. I'd like us to gain some ranking points this November, rather than making our traditional early christmas gift to the SH.

[Lizard]

You should be ok against Argentina as long you maintain discipline, patience and accuracy and are able to capitalise on mistakes.

The Springboks seem to be in a hopeless shambles. If ever they were there to be taken, it is now. The coaching staff, as you would expect from at least partly politically motivated appointments, are not up to the task. This is reflected in the game plan and selections.

Aussie are not having a great year but can still put teams away. They haven't lost belief like the Boks and will be looking to lash out if they get half a sniff. I would be worried about them. Cheika might not be the greatest coach on Earth but he will have done his homework on Gatball. Not just his current job but possibly his career depends on not being embarrassed in November. You're first up for them as well (not counting the final Bledisloe match on 22 Oct in Auckland).


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