The Incredibly Premature RWC2019 Prediction Thread

[Lizard]

Roll up, roll up. Show us your rugby knowledge by predicting the results of every match 2.5 years ahead of time.

You will also need to have a bit of a crystal ball gaze to figure out the qualifiers. As a good working assumption, I think we can say the following:

Africa 1 = Namibia
Americas 1 = USA
Americas 2 = Canada
Europe 1 = Romania
Oceania 1 = Fiji
Oceania 2 = Samoa
Play-off winner = Tonga
Repechage = Uruguay

Let's also assume:
QFs are Winner Pool A plays Runner-Up Pool B (QF1), and vice versa (QF2), and ditto for Pools C&D (QF3/4)
SFs are Winner QF1 v Winner QF4, Winners QF2 v QF3

If not, you can take a Mulligan.

Right - money where the mouth is:

Pool A
Ireland will go through undefeated. The rest is tricky. Japan's final will be the match v Scotland, and I'm picking the upset (Jap 4 try BP, Sco losing BP). Scotland will beat Tonga (no BPs) and Romania (4 try BP Sco) who won't win a game. However, Tonga will physically dominate and shame the hosts, plus beating Romania. That will leave three teams on 2 wins, but Scotland will squeak through in 2nd place on BPs.

Pool B
NZ will look very shaky against SA, but prevail and retain their record of 0 pool games lost. SA will win all their other games. Italy will get stomped by NZ and SA, but pass that favour on to Namibia and Uruguay. The only match, other than NZ v SA, of any interest will be Nam v Uru. I really want Uruguay to win that.

Pool C
Now this is interesting. I am not convinced that England's current competence will last until 2019. However, France's incompetence is structural and will endure. Argentina always step up for World Cups and are building some spine. So both England and Argentina will beat France, who will drop out of the Always-Makes-The-Playoffs Club. I can't see the Pumas beating England. Samoa will come close to at least one upset but will lost to all three higher-ranked teams, while beating USA who will not win a match.

Pool D
I don't care how shit, or how numerous, Aussie Super Rugby teams get, Wales is not going to beat the Wallabies at a World Cup any time soon. Nor will Georgia, Fiji or Canada for that matter. I think the days of Wales being turned over by Pacific teams have gone, not least because Fiji will supplying wingers to a quarter of the teams competing. Georgia will throw the kitchen sink at Wales to try to prove a point, but to no avail. I expect they will have enough in the tank to see off Fiji and Canada. Fiji will consign Canada to the wooden spoon.

Quarter-Finals
Ireland will break their QF duck and beat a declining Springboks team. (I am not at all certain of this but Ireland is on the way up, and SA appears to be in decline)

NZ will fairly easily account for Scotland

I would love Wales to beat England, but I cannot see anyway that Gatland will out-coach Jones.

Argentina will be tired from a tough pool and go down to the Wallabies.

Semi-finals
All Blacks to smack the Aussie.

Ireland over England, purely on passion and pent-up lack of RWC playoffs.

Bronze final
Through the haze of pointlessness and stench of failure, we will see the Aussies fail to care enough and lose to England still smarting from being shown up.

Final
Ireland will have played two finals already. NZ to run away in the 4th quarter.

[Adder]

Last time Scotland played in Japan, they seemed to struggle with the climate a lot. But that was in the summer. How is the weather in october in Japan?

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[rowan]

A: Ireland, Scotland, Japan, Romania, Tonga

At this stage, I'd go with Ireland & Japan, the hosts showing huge passion to recapture their 2015 form v SA against the Scots, with the crowd support reaching fever pitch. Romania & Tonga to battle for pride (as usual).

B: NZ, SA, Italy, Namibia, Uruguay
Looks very straightforward, with NZ and SA taking 1st and 2nd and Italy untroubled in securing their berth at 2023. Namibia (probably) will scrape home for first win v. Uruguay (possibly, but could well be Spain or Russia on current form, with Kenya an outside chance)

C: England, France, Argentina, USA, Samoa

Undoubtedly the pool of death. England will need to be on top of their game to avoid a repeat of 2015, while Argentina are going from strength to strength and should come through in second. Samoa definitely the joker in the pack, but perhaps less likely to upset one of the big guns than they were a decade or two ago.

D: Australia, Wales, Georgia, Fiji, Canada

Australia will need to be on their toes to avoid defeat to Wales, Wales will need to be on theirs to avoid a loss to Fiji, and Fiji may struggle to put away Georgia and Canada (probably). So an upset or two certainly possible and I'll go for Australia & Fiji!

Japanese passion will not be nearly enough in the QFs, though the locals will be thrilled just to see the Blossoms reach the stage and face the mighty ABs. South Africa to edge Ireland. On the other side of the draw, England should progress against Fiji, while Australia will probably overcome Argentina - again.

NZ & SA to edge England & Aussie, respectively, in the semis.

England to beat Australia for 3rd, NZ to avenge SA in the final - in style - as All Blacks clinch 4th title.

That's what my head says. The heart is hoping for a few more upsets, and I'd be delighted to see just about anyone but the Kiwis win it

[Puja]

With the caveat that I love an upset, love gambling on long shots, and am a hopeless romantic when it comes to predictions:

Pool A: Japan, having spent all their energies focussing on getting out of their group, spring a surprise and win 3/4 with a losing BP vs Ireland to qualify. Ireland manage to lose to Scotland, but put away the minnows well enough to top the group.

Pool B: New Zealand walk all over everyone. Italy nearly surprise SA, but bottle it at the last to finish 3rd again.

Pool C: England top with 4 wins, but a bit battered. Argentina come second, having extended their RWC hoodoo over France.

Pool D: Australia, then Wales. Not too much to write home about here.

Quarters:
New Zealand vs Japan - a full house, the focus of the country, but Japan won't pull an upset that big. Will be a good game though.
Ireland vs South Africa - Ireland fail to get past the quarters, again. South Africa somehow limp into the semis without actually being much good, again.
England vs Wales - See the last three England vs Wales games for reference. Don't bother going back any further than that.
Argentina vs Australia - Argentina roll over Australia

Semis:
England vs New Zealand - easy game to predict.
South Africa vs Argentina - South Africa's luck to finally run out.

Final:
England vs Argentina - England victory.

Puja

[Adder]

A: Ireland, Scotland, Japan, Romania, Tonga

Scotland getting a new coach , I will assume they remain at the same level or approve. Ireland and Scotland to go through. Scotland to beat Ireland but lose to Japan. Ireland to beat Japan. Japan to lose to Tonga. Ireland top on points.

B: NZ, SA, Italy, Namibia, Uruguay
No surprises, NZ top SA second. Italy beat other 2.

C: England, France, Argentina, USA, Samoa

As much as I'd enjoyr a repeat of 2015, England will top this and Argentina will take the other spot. (FRANCE still to prove improvement). US to beat Samoa.

D: Australia, Wales, Georgia, Fiji, Canada

Australia number 1, trashing everyone on the way, Wales beat the rest. Georgia, Fiji and Canada.

Ireland beat SA
Scotland beat NZ(you heard it here first) who were so confident they didn't turn up. Conjugal beatings go down due to shock.
England beat Wales narrowly
Argentina beat Australia.

Scotland to crush Aussie in SF
Ireland play a good game but lose to England.,

Ireland to beat Australia for 3rd, Scotland and England to meet in the final for the first time, and Scotland trash Englabd 62-23 . Townsend admits he is no mere mortal ...

PS maybe replace Scotland with NZ from the SF up.

Edit: thanks Rich

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[Rich]

...

Ireland beat SA
Scotland beat NZ(you heard it here first) who were so confident they didn't turn up. Conjugal beatings go down due to shock.
England beat Wales narrowly
Argentina beat Australia.

Scotland to crush Aussie in SF
SA play a good game but lose to England.,

...

Hmmmm

[Adder]

...

Ireland beat SA
Scotland beat NZ(you heard it here first) who were so confident they didn't turn up. Conjugal beatings go down due to shock.
England beat Wales narrowly
Argentina beat Australia.

Scotland to crush Aussie in SF
SA play a good game but lose to England.,

...

Hmmmm

Ooops.

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[rowan]

It's worth noting here that a few years ago I was busy arguing with the crowd over at the tier 2 & 3 rugby forum, who were mostly convinced England and Ireland were going to contest the 2015 final while SA and Australia were unlikely to make much of an impression (largely based on Auturmn tour results)). My views to the contrary drew much fury - which partly explains why I'm over here discussing the issue this time...

[Lizard]

Apparently, I've got the Semi's mixed up.

So All Blacks > England, and Australia > Ireland

Bronze goe to England

NZ win Bill.

[rowan]

Me too then, since I copied yours That's a real shame, actually, because there's never been an NZ v England final, and that's what I'd really like to see, especially with Tokyo being about as neutral a venue as is possible. In that case, SA to edge Aussie and NZ to edge England to set up the first (and only) clash of the Super Powers in a World Cup final, and while I'd love to see the Boks nudge it again, my head says that would have to be another trophy in the cabinet for New Zealand. England to take 3rd.

Btw, did NZ get to keep the last one? I know Brazil got to keep the original FIFA World Cup trophy after their 3rd success in 1970...

[rowan]

There are some interesting possibilities for the quarterfinals:

According to the current form book, the QFs should be Ireland v SA, NZ v Scotland, England v Wales, Australia v France.

But some other match-ups that seem quite plausible are:

Scotland v SA (if the Scots can beat Ireland)

NZ v Ireland (as above) or Japan (if Japan can overcome one of their Celtic rivals).

France or Argentina v Wales (if France or Argentina can beat England)

Australia v England (as above, or if Wales can beat Australia)

England v Fiji (if Fiji can beat Wales)

The form book would also suggest NZ v England and SA v Australia in the semis.

But it could well be NZ v France, Argentina or even Australia (if the Wallabies dropped a group match then won their QF)

& Ireland might well beat SA for a first ever semis berth, just as France, Argentina, England (if they drop a group match) or Wales (if they beat the Wallabies in group play) might well emerge to face them.

So while I've gone for a precictable NZ v England, SA v Australia semis lineup, I think we could well see NZ v France or Argentina in one semi, and Ireland v England, France, Argentina or Wales in the other.

[rowan]

The playoff permutations are endless but are almost certain to involve the tier 1 brigade with the possible exceptions of Fiji & the host nation. Samoa finds itself in the same position as Fiji in 2015, requiring not one upset but two to make it through, and we're not talking about Celtic nations either. Tonga could have an outside chance of reaching the QFs for the first time ever if they play the way they did at the 2007 tournament, but on the basis of the last World Cup tournament they're unlikely to do so. They'll never get an easier group, however.

[rowan]

JAPAN’S hosting of the 2019 Rugby World Cup has created “nervousness” about whether big crowds will turn up but national pride will carry the day for the Japanese, World Rugby’s chief executive said Monday.

It will be the first time the tournament will be held in Asia and outside of the sport’s traditional strongholds, but Alan Gilpin said he expects audiences to fill up the stadiums.

“It’s not just the first World Cup in Asia, it’s the first World Cup outside of the traditional rugby strongholds. So that definitely presents some challenges,” he told a conference in Singapore.

“It creates some nervousness. Will we have sold-out stadiums, will we have the same level of audience engagement, the same engagement we had in previous world cups? The answer is yes, we will.”

https://www.foxsports.com.au/rugby/worl ... a48e33b973

[Lizard]

Hmm. My blithe assertion that Canada would be Americas 2 could be my undoing.

[rowan]

TOKYO (AP) — Organizers of the 2019 Rugby World Cup in Japan have been warned their preparations are not progressing as smoothly as they should.

Rugby World Cup Tournament Director Alan Gilpin and several colleagues were in Tokyo for a tournament review and said much work remains to be done.

Of particular concern to Gilpin was the lack of progress in the selection of training venues.

"The Japan Rugby 2019 Organizing Committee recognise that they need to accelerate the selection of training venues," Gilpin said in a statement released Sunday. "These venues must be of a world-class standard that provide the platform for the players to perform at their best."

Among the other topics reviewed this week were a detailed evaluation of venues, ticketing, tournament budgets and host city operations.

Venues for the 48 games will be announced on Nov. 2.

http://sobserver.ws/en/18_09_2017/rugby ... hedule.htm

[Lizard]

What's the back-up plan if DPRK vaporises Tokyo?

[Lizard]

You will also need to have a bit of a crystal ball gaze to figure out the qualifiers. As a good working assumption, I think we can say the following:

Africa 1 = Namibia
Americas 1 = USA
Americas 2 = Canada
Europe 1 = Romania
Oceania 1 = Fiji
Oceania 2 = Samoa
Play-off winner = Tonga
Repechage = Uruguay

So how am I going with the old crystal ball?

Africa 1: Still odds on to be Namibia. There's one tournament to go this year featuring Namibia (ranked 23rd), Kenya (30), Uganda (35), Morroco (38), Tunisia(44) & Zim (45). 2nd place, probably Kenya goes to the repechage.

Americas 1 = USA. Confirmed.

Americas 2 comes down to a home/away playoff between Canada (21) and the higher-ranked Uruguay (18). Canada have never failed to qualify before but are staring down the barrel this time. Uruguay beat Canada year ago (albeit narrowly, and at home). I'm now picking Canada's poor form to continue, leaving them needing to get through the repechage.

Europe 1 still looks like Romania (15) which is leading the European Champs (level points with Georgia who have already qualified). The runner-up (excl. Georgia) possibly Spain (20) but probably Russia (19) has a silly play-off against Portugal (25) for the chance to meet Samoa in a further play-off to decide who goes straight into Pool A (I'm picking Samoa (16) and who joins the repechage tournament (I'll say Russia).

Oceania 1 has been confirmed as Fiji but Oc 2 is in fact Tonga.

Asia is a bit of a sideshow. Hong Kong (22), Korea (31) and Malaysia (47) are still in the running with HK clear favourites to get on the piss-trip waste of time play-off v Tahiti (88 FFS) and slide into the repechage.

That leaves the repechage round robin as being between Canada, Russia, Hong Kong and Kenya. An interesting proposition but my money is on Canada to squeak through.

As for the main draw, I don't think my revision above changes much.

Pool A: Samoa are in a poor spot and i can't see them getting up for 2019 unfortunately, not with Scotland playing so well. I'm also changing my mind about Japan upsetting Scotland who have looked handy lately.
Pool B: switching Uruguay for Canada will make little difference.
Pool C: Tonga probably will do no better than I predicted for Samoa, but a wee cheeky punt for a repeat dose of 2011 v France could be worth thinking about if Les Bleus continue to be shit.
Pool D: See Pool B.

[rowan]

What's for certain is they'll all get there. I can't see next year's World Cup featuring anything but the same 20 teams it featured last time - when there wasn't a solitary debutante. Canada and Samoa certainly don't deserve to be there, but will be, and the most we can hope for is respectable losing margins at which we can cluck and gush and rave about how much progress they're making...

[Lizard]

It sounds like it was an exciting game. with 5 lead changes, but Uruguay ended up 9-point winners in Vancouver. I don't see them overcoming that in the return leg at Montevideo.

The crunch game in the repechage tournament will likely be Canada v Europe 2.

[rowan]

Yes, Spain, who Canada actually beat comfortably enough in Madrid during the AIs. But Los Leones edged Russia out of third place in the ENC last year with a narrow home win. Not sure if the Bears get another crack at them before the repechage teams are determined, but I'd still back Spain to finish third overall, behind Georgia and Romania. The other repechage teams will likely be Hong Kong and either Zimbabwe or Kenya, none of whom are likely to trouble even the worst Canadian team EVER, to be realistic.

[rowan]

This week's games: I'll take Uruguay by 5, Chile by 10, Argentina by 6, France by 3, Wales by 5, Switzerland by 10 & England by 15.

03.02 Montevideo Uruguay - Canada World Cup Qualifier Americas Repechage, 2nd Leg
03.02 La Pintana Chile - Brazil Americas Championship
03.02 Carson USA - Argentina 'B' Americas Championship
03.02 Saint-Denis France - Ireland 6 Nations Championship
03.02 Cardiff Wales - Scotland 6 Nations Championship
03.02 Chens-ur-Léman (France) Switzerland - Ivory Coast Friendly
04.02 Rome Italy - England 6 Nations Championship

[Lizard]

And Uruguay are confirmed as Americas 2.

[rowan]

Well done. Not a great week with my picks, which I just tossed in there for fun. 4 right, 3 wrong.

[rowan]

So this week Germany are sending a vastly understrength team to Romania due to an ongoing sponsorship row (I believe all the Heidelberg players have been withdrawn), while Spain can all but confirm its place in the World Cup qualifying inter-continental playff (v Samoa, loser to the repechage tourny) with an away win v Russia, which I'll tip them to do on the basis of last year's form. A win for the hosts would leave them about level.

DATE VENUE MATCH COMPETITION STAGE
10.02 London England - Wales 6 Nations Championship Poms by 10
10.02 Dublin Ireland - Italy 6 Nations Championship Irish by 20
10.02 Tbilisi Georgia - Belgium Rugby Europe Championship Georgia by 20
10.02 Cluj-Napoca Romania - Germany Rugby Europe Championship Romania by 20
10.02 Sochi Russia - Spain Rugby Europe Championship Spain by 3
10.02 Ushuaia Argentina 'B' - Chile Americas Championship Argentina by 20
10.02 Sacramento USA - Canada Americas Championship US by 15
10.02 Lisbon Portugal - Netherlands Rugby Europe Trophy Portugal by 6

[Lizard]

Well picked. Spain get up over Russia.