What we know; what do we think?

[normanski]

Well, three rounds done and two to go!

We know that Wales don’t panic and can come strongly from being points down at half time. Reminds me of the great teams of the seventies when Wales would come from behind to absolutely pulverise the opposition in the last 20 minutes

We know that the fixtures this year are helpful. France in disarray in Paris was the opportunity we needed in atrocious playing conditions to get off to a winning start. Our reserves’ performance against Italy was put into perspective by yesterday’s Irish game.

Italy are becoming more assured and composed and might surprise England to deny them a BP at Twickenham. Ireland did not look like the team of last year. Remember our reserves scored five tries in Rome but had two marginally disallowed.

England have flattered to deceive in their first two games and while they have made some progress in some areas a lot of the problems of the last year resurfaced on Saturday. A full strength Scotland side having seen the Plan A strategy destroyed might fancy their chances as well the chance to get rid of their Twickenham hoodoo .

Scotland are next up for Wales at Murrayfield. They have a fortnight to get key players back from injury. Beating them on their own patch is always difficult but Gatland has been building momentum with the squad and I think we could be going for a fifth-win game against Ireland in Cardiff. Fingers crossed!

How do fellow posters think the last two rounds will go?

[Sandydragon]

I think we are on a roll and whilst not perfect, we are doing a lot of stuff well. Its a shame the game isn't the Saturday!

Starting with the negative, our line out is really concerning. This will cost us if we don't get it sorted out and soon. Otherwise, there are many positives to take out of the games so far. We had a good 40 minutes against France, despite the conditions and had 2 tries disallowed in that game as well IIRC. Together with the disallowed tries vs Italy, we could be a very nice position now with some buffer room in case we lose a game.

I think we can win the remaining 2 games. Ireland have a few issues at the moment and things just aren't going quite right for them. Italy did play very well yesterday, but Ireland still did enough to win with a few key players out, so that game in Cardiff will be huge. If we are in the hunt for a Grand Slam then I think we can win it.

Scotland is really hard to call. Our recent history and current momentum suggests that we should win, but no trip to Edinburgh is to be taken for granted and Scotland won't be as bad as they were against France on Saturday. A lot depends on the Scottish selection, if they play a quick team then they can cause problems, if Laidlaw is picked and they don't have Russell back then I think they will struggle to get past our defence.

I don't think we need to make too many changes to the team for the next 2 games. The debate about Biggar vs Anscombe will continue no doubt and I've always preferred a more open player off the bench, but the current method is working.

[normanski]

I share your optimism and trust in Gatland and co to maintain the progress.

Interesting that EJ is bringing Georgia over this week for scrum training. If I remember correctly the last time he did this the Georgians took so much out of the England pack that they were leaden footed in the next test.

[Sourdust]

After this weekend we're going to have to take the "favourites" tag on the chin for Murrayfield. Of course I'm always nervous going up there, there's always danger but in reality the only time they've beaten us was 2017, when they were widely fancied to do so. As wary as I am of a wounded Scotland, when I ask myself if I'd rather be a Scotland fan going into that game? No, thanks.

Ireland will be very different. They have been a complete pain in the arse for Wales for 20 years now, so often the ones to spoil things when we're building confidence. On form they look nowhere near as scary as they did last year, but it's still the same world-class players and if they click they could put us away quite handily. Thankfully, at least that is now a genuine "if".

Other fans will be muttering to themselves that this Wales team is not good enough for a GS. But Ireland weren't that great in '09, and France in '10 were possibly the worst side ever to win anything. Nobody cares. I always say that the GS is a bauble and the title is what matters, but because of ****ing BPs we now know it's GS or bust for us this year. Even now we don't honestly feel like the full package and I'm note wholly convinced we'll do it - although I'm a lot more confident than I was!

[normanski]

We also know that we have overtaken England in the World Rankings and are third again.

[Son of Mathonwy]

We're in a very good place. If we played NZ next we'd have a good chance and certainly the players would have the sort of belief that is sometimes lacking.

We should beat Scotland, but absolutely must take it seriously. We need be able to win the game whether it turns out to be structured or loose - but I have every confidence that we can beat them either way.

Ireland will be difficult. They know they can beat us in Cardiff. But the chances are that they will not be able to win the championships by that point, so that might take the edge off what they can do. They're struggling for form though, these three matches, so I think we should win this one too.

So, I think the grand slam is very much on.

Aside: England have a problem. We have shown everyone else how to beat them, and okay it's only Italy then Scotland, but both now have a blueprint to follow for how to nullify England. History says England will get 5 points from each of their remaining matches, but now we have shown them the way, the boys in blue might make things difficult.

[Ross. S]

Aside: England have a problem. We have shown everyone else how to beat them, and okay it's only Italy then Scotland, but both now have a blueprint to follow for how to nullify England. History says England will get 5 points from each of their remaining matches, but now we have shown them the way, the boys in blue might make things difficult.

Italy will be lucky to keep it under 50 imo and the jocks will bend over for them at hq, they always do

[normanski]

Cory Hill is out of the championship with an ankle injury. A big blow but at least we have Beard and Ball as backup.

[Son of Mathonwy]

Cory Hill is out of the championship with an ankle injury. A big blow but at least we have Beard and Ball as backup.

Looked like he got that whilst crashing through for the try. Hope it's not for too long.

[normanski]

Cory Hill is out of the championship with an ankle injury. A big blow but at least we have Beard and Ball as backup.

Looked like he got that whilst crashing through for the try. Hope it's not for too long.

He’s certainly formed a great team with Alun Wyn and with Beard developing nicely as the replacement. Should stand us in good shape for RWC.

[Son of Mathonwy]

Aside: England have a problem. We have shown everyone else how to beat them, and okay it's only Italy then Scotland, but both now have a blueprint to follow for how to nullify England. History says England will get 5 points from each of their remaining matches, but now we have shown them the way, the boys in blue might make things difficult.

Italy will be lucky to keep it under 50 imo and the jocks will bend over for them at hq, they always do

Yes, that's probably true. But they have something to aim at. Can they match England's physicality? Do they have an experienced back three? Can they play for 80 minutes (okay, this one might be a problem...)??

[morepork]

If Italy don't kick the ball away and can keep up that nice flat attacking game they seem to be developing, they could give England a fright. Especially with players like Owen "shoulders" Farrell running out of the defensive line and not bringing the man down.

[Sandydragon]

Italy looked very comfortable with ball in hand against Ireland. But I can see England pulling away in the second half and getting a comfortable BP.

That’s a real shame about Hill. We will definitely miss him in the next two games.

[MrK]

What we know

1) We have the ability to keep our heads, not buckle under pressure and stick to a game plan
2) Our pack has the ability to stand up and at least be on par with the big test packs out there (AIs and now England)
3) Our scrum is very solid
4) Our lineout needs work
5) We havent really hit the best combination at 1/2 back, that said
6) Biggar has been a revelation coming on to secure the game, which means
7) Our mindset is, lets not lose the game, and have a sub to change the game, to lets get ahead, then close the game out
8) We still need to sort out our inside centre issue
9) Josh Adams is a test level winger
10) Liam Williams is a world class 15
11) We have genuine strength in depth, not masses, but good options for most positions.

What we think

1) We still need to find a way to be more threatening and score more tries
2) Ball carriers would add to our pack no end Dillon Lewis and Ball from bench, Faletau will probably start.
3) Rhys Webb would be a step up at 9
4) Patchell should be tried at 12
5) If halfpenny is fit, North is in danger.
6) There are going to be some very disappointed players left our of the WC squad.
7) It wouldnt be pretty, but we could probably beat anyone on our day.

[normanski]

What we know

1) We have the ability to keep our heads, not buckle under pressure and stick to a game plan
2) Our pack has the ability to stand up and at least be on par with the big test packs out there (AIs and now England)
3) Our scrum is very solid
4) Our lineout needs work
5) We havent really hit the best combination at 1/2 back, that said
6) Biggar has been a revelation coming on to secure the game, which means
7) Our mindset is, lets not lose the game, and have a sub to change the game, to lets get ahead, then close the game out
8) We still need to sort out our inside centre issue
9) Josh Adams is a test level winger
10) Liam Williams is a world class 15
11) We have genuine strength in depth, not masses, but good options for most positions.

What we think

1) We still need to find a way to be more threatening and score more tries
2) Ball carriers would add to our pack no end Dillon Lewis and Ball from bench, Faletau will probably start.
3) Rhys Webb would be a step up at 9
4) Patchell should be tried at 12
5) If halfpenny is fit, North is in danger.
6) There are going to be some very disappointed players left our of the WC squad.
7) It wouldnt be pretty, but we could probably beat anyone on our day.

Very good analysis.

Ball carrying is something which is developing at some pace - hence the 34 phase pick and go which led to Hill’s try. Warburton used to manage this well, often making a five or ten metre burst which put the opponents’ defensive line backwards at a rate of knots.

You’re suggesting Faletau should start. Is he fit and ready? I would hate to see Navidi (especially) or Moriarty dropped to make way. If Taulupe is fit again would prefer him as a bench option.

Patchell at 12 is interesting especially as Scott Williams is some way off. A second playmaker/kicker alongside Anscombe to start would help to give new ways to become more threatening and hopefully score tries. They might even develop into the type of partnership Ford and Farrell enjoyed when England were on their long winning run.

Murrayfield could be a banana skin following the euphoria of last weekend but I trust Gatland will manage expectations and give us a team to put the Scots away even if it’s an ugly win.

[Son of Mathonwy]

It would be interesting to see Patchell at 12, outside of Anscombe. But this does feel a little like messing a versatile player around (à la Hook).

I would prefer to see him at 10 instead of Anscombe. Hopefully he will get a chance in the Scotland game.

A fit Halfpenny - and he looked fairly sharp on Sunday - is a tricky one, considering how Liam is playing. Will Gatland just slot him straight back into 15 (and then who loses out?) or will there be a rethink? I guess for Scotland he could be on the bench, but going forward it's difficult to know which of those 4 excellent players will lose out (I think, of the 4, Liam is nailed on).

[normanski]

It would be interesting to see Patchell at 12, outside of Anscombe. But this does feel a little like messing a versatile player around (à la Hook).

I would prefer to see him at 10 instead of Anscombe. Hopefully he will get a chance in the Scotland game.

A fit Halfpenny - and he looked fairly sharp on Sunday - is a tricky one, considering how Liam is playing. Will Gatland just slot him straight back into 15 (and then who loses out?) or will there be a rethink? I guess for Scotland he could be on the bench, but going forward it's difficult to know which of those 4 excellent players will lose out (I think, of the 4, Liam is nailed on).

And the way Adams has developed it would be very brave to leave him out. He seems to have the ability to create space in tight situations and make yards - just as did for first try against France.

[Sandydragon]

It would be interesting to see Patchell at 12, outside of Anscombe. But this does feel a little like messing a versatile player around (à la Hook).

I would prefer to see him at 10 instead of Anscombe. Hopefully he will get a chance in the Scotland game.

A fit Halfpenny - and he looked fairly sharp on Sunday - is a tricky one, considering how Liam is playing. Will Gatland just slot him straight back into 15 (and then who loses out?) or will there be a rethink? I guess for Scotland he could be on the bench, but going forward it's difficult to know which of those 4 excellent players will lose out (I think, of the 4, Liam is nailed on).

And the snag with halfoennynis that I don’t see him as a finisher, more of a starter. He is defensively very good and a superb kicker of points which would be of benefit throughout. We have seen previously that he is more aggressive on the wing. But if you want someone to come off the bench and inject something positive for 20 minutes then aside from the kicking option, I don’t see what that is. I’d much rather North fresh and with a point to prove running at tired defenders.