The Run In

[SerjeantWildgoose]

Well lets concede that with a short handful of games left to the regular season, Leinster and Connacht are looking comfortable, while 1 of Ulster and Munster is likely to end up bottom of the Irish heap despite a top-6 finish.

Ulster have Leinster and Connacht at home, we have to travel to both. Ulster have trips to Ospreys and Zebre, we have Scarlets and Edinburgh at Thomond Park. I think that this puts Ulster squarely in the position of favourites to secure Ireland's 3rd Champions Cup slot, and Munster likely to be playing off for the Rabo's 7th spot - but against who?

And am I wrong to be writing off the chasing pack (Leinster, Connacht, Glasgow and Scarlets to be secure in the top 4, but what about Ospreys and Edinburgh?)

[Eugene Wrayburn]

Well lets concede that with a short handful of games left to the regular season, Leinster and Connacht are looking comfortable, while 1 of Ulster and Munster is likely to end up bottom of the Irish heap despite a top-6 finish.

Ulster have Leinster and Connacht at home, we have to travel to both. Ulster have trips to Ospreys and Zebre, we have Scarlets and Edinburgh at Thomond Park. I think that this puts Ulster squarely in the position of favourites to secure Ireland's 3rd Champions Cup slot, and Munster likely to be playing off for the Rabo's 7th spot - but against who?

And am I wrong to be writing off the chasing pack (Leinster, Connacht, Glasgow and Scarlets to be secure in the top 4, but what about Ospreys and Edinburgh?)

We (Munster and Ulster) SHOULD manage to finish at least 5th and 6th fairly comfortably which would mean no play off for either. Edinburgh loook the bigget threat. Pro 12 get 7 spots as of right with occasional random play offs at the whim of the English for an 8th.

I'm not sure Ulster are good enough to be favourites for anything right now, but who cares when we're talking about 5th or 6th

[hugh_woatmeigh]

I think Scarlets will fall away (haven't looked at their run in tbf). They benefited hugely from the RWC and had a nice run of wins during/shortly after it.

[Eugene Wrayburn]

I think Scarlets will fall away (haven't looked at their run in tbf). They benefited hugely from the RWC and had a nice run of wins during/shortly after it.

And have just beaten the Os away. I see no particular reason why they should fall away. If they get some players back to fitness they should go from strength to strength.

[Eugene Wrayburn]

Cracking game from Connacht against Leinster. assuming Ulster are out of it, I'll be cheering them on every step of the way. An utter delight to watch. I guess they miught get distracted by Europe.

[Dacre]

The run in just got a lot more interesting with Cardiff beating the Scarlets.

The next round of matches has Edinburgh away at Leinster, Munster away at Connacht and Cardiff at home to Dragons

I can see that as being Edinburgh 0 points Munster 1 and Cardiff 4

That will put Munster on 54 and Edinburgh and Cardiff on 52

Round 23 has Munster playing Edinburgh at home and Cardiff playing Ospreys at the Millennium Stadium.

I can see a Munster win with 4 points, Edinburgh with 0 points and Cardiff with 4 points

That will put Munster on 58, Edinburgh on 52 and Cardiff on 56

Then it's the final weekend

Munster at home to Scarlets and Edinburgh home to Cardiff.

What a great finish to the season!

[hugh_woatmeigh]

I think Scarlets will fall away (haven't looked at their run in tbf). They benefited hugely from the RWC and had a nice run of wins during/shortly after it.

And have just beaten the Os away. I see no particular reason why they should fall away. If they get some players back to fitness they should go from strength to strength.

They beat the big teams during the RWC or in the period after the RWC when players were rested. That leaves the Italians, Edinburgh and the other Welsh teams to rack up other wins. Scarlets will finish 4th at best. Glasgow & Munster should beat them no problem.

[UKHamlet]

The run in just got a lot more interesting with Cardiff beating the Scarlets.

The next round of matches has Edinburgh away at Leinster, Munster away at Connacht and Cardiff at home to Dragons

I can see that as being Edinburgh 0 points Munster 1 and Cardiff 4

That will put Munster on 54 and Edinburgh and Cardiff on 52

Round 23 has Munster playing Edinburgh at home and Cardiff playing Ospreys at the Millennium Stadium.

I can see a Munster win with 4 points, Edinburgh with 0 points and Cardiff with 4 points

That will put Munster on 58, Edinburgh on 52 and Cardiff on 56

Then it's the final weekend

Munster at home to Scarlets and Edinburgh home to Cardiff.

What a great finish to the season!

Pretty much the most exciting end to the season Cardiff have had for years. I think we can beat the Dragons and the Ospreys. Then it's down to the last match in Edinburgh. I'm hoping the Scarlets will get all their players back in time for the Munster game and get a good win against them.

[Dacre]

The run in just got a lot more interesting with Cardiff beating the Scarlets.

The next round of matches has Edinburgh away at Leinster, Munster away at Connacht and Cardiff at home to Dragons

I can see that as being Edinburgh 0 points Munster 1 and Cardiff 4

That will put Munster on 54 and Edinburgh and Cardiff on 52

Round 23 has Munster playing Edinburgh at home and Cardiff playing Ospreys at the Millennium Stadium.

I can see a Munster win with 4 points, Edinburgh with 0 points and Cardiff with 4 points

That will put Munster on 58, Edinburgh on 52 and Cardiff on 56

Then it's the final weekend

Munster at home to Scarlets and Edinburgh home to Cardiff.

What a great finish to the season!

Pretty much the most exciting end to the season Cardiff have had for years. I think we can beat the Dragons and the Ospreys. Then it's down to the last match in Edinburgh. I'm hoping the Scarlets will get all their players back in time for the Munster game and get a good win against them.

I've just bought tickets for the Cardiff v Dragons game in 2 weeks time - should be a cracker from a Cardiff point of view

[UKHamlet]

The run in just got a lot more interesting with Cardiff beating the Scarlets.

The next round of matches has Edinburgh away at Leinster, Munster away at Connacht and Cardiff at home to Dragons

I can see that as being Edinburgh 0 points Munster 1 and Cardiff 4

That will put Munster on 54 and Edinburgh and Cardiff on 52

Round 23 has Munster playing Edinburgh at home and Cardiff playing Ospreys at the Millennium Stadium.

I can see a Munster win with 4 points, Edinburgh with 0 points and Cardiff with 4 points

That will put Munster on 58, Edinburgh on 52 and Cardiff on 56

Then it's the final weekend

Munster at home to Scarlets and Edinburgh home to Cardiff.

What a great finish to the season!

Pretty much the most exciting end to the season Cardiff have had for years. I think we can beat the Dragons and the Ospreys. Then it's down to the last match in Edinburgh. I'm hoping the Scarlets will get all their players back in time for the Munster game and get a good win against them.

I've just bought tickets for the Cardiff v Dragons game in 2 weeks time - should be a cracker from a Cardiff point of view

I might see you there. I haven't been to CAP this season.

[Dacre]

Pretty much the most exciting end to the season Cardiff have had for years. I think we can beat the Dragons and the Ospreys. Then it's down to the last match in Edinburgh. I'm hoping the Scarlets will get all their players back in time for the Munster game and get a good win against them.

I've just bought tickets for the Cardiff v Dragons game in 2 weeks time - should be a cracker from a Cardiff point of view

I might see you there. I haven't been to CAP this season.

Nor have I so I thought it was time to get the tickets so that I won't dip out

[Dacre]

After round 20 Leinster, Connacht and Glasgow are pretty much guaranteed a place in the play offs

The following pack is very interesting

4th Ulster on 60 points playing Leinster at home and Ospreys away in the final 2 games
5th Scarlets on 58 points playing Dragons at Principality and Munster away
6th Edinburgh on 53 points playing Munster away and Cardiff at home
7th Munster on 53 points playing Edinburgh at home and Scarlets at home
8th Cardiff on 52 points playing Ospreys at Principality and Edinburgh away
9th Ospreys on 49 points playing Cardiff at Principality and Ulster at home

This must be the first time for years that the last 2 weekends of the Pro12 has been so exciting

Ulster have 2 difficult games and could lose both so could end up on 58 but more realistic is to lose to Leinster and beat Ospreys and end up on 64
Scarlets beat Dragons and lose to Munster and end up on 62
Edinburgh lose to Munster and beat Cardiff and end up on 57
Munster beat Edinburgh and beat Scarlets and end up on 61
Cardiff beat Ospreys and lose to Edinburgh and end up on 56
Ospreys lose to Cardiff and to Ulster and end up on 49

On the above scenarios the top 4 are Leinster, Connacht ,Glasgo and Ulster with Scalets and Munster qualifying for Chamiond Cup next season.

But who am I to know what the results will be?

[Eugene Wrayburn]

So it looks like we'll get at least 3 Irish teams into the Champions Cup, probably 4. Under the old system this would have been an almighty bun fight. Now Munster pretty much just needs to beat Embra and we'll have more money and more teams than we had under the old. You know how I said in the past that the new system would make little difference to the irish but the welsh were screwing themselves...

Glasgow are on a serious charge, however Connacht are my current favourites for the title (if Aki is fit). If Leinster have a home semi as seems almost inevitable then they'll be decent contenders in the final against either, even though they've been lacklustre.

The permutations for the European places are myriad. It all seems to work in Ulster's favour though.

[Dacre]

So it looks like we'll get at least 3 Irish teams into the Champions Cup, probably 4. Under the old system this would have been an almighty bun fight. Now Munster pretty much just needs to beat Embra and we'll have more money and more teams than we had under the old. You know how I said in the past that the new system would make little difference to the irish but the welsh were screwing themselves...

Glasgow are on a serious charge, however Connacht are my current favourites for the title (if Aki is fit). If Leinster have a home semi as seems almost inevitable then they'll be decent contenders in the final against either, even though they've been lacklustre.

The permutations for the European places are myriad. It all seems to work in Ulster's favour though.

Can you see Ulster beating Leinster at home? If Leinster win, that is huge pressure on Ulster for the Ospreys game

[Eugene Wrayburn]

So it looks like we'll get at least 3 Irish teams into the Champions Cup, probably 4. Under the old system this would have been an almighty bun fight. Now Munster pretty much just needs to beat Embra and we'll have more money and more teams than we had under the old. You know how I said in the past that the new system would make little difference to the irish but the welsh were screwing themselves...

Glasgow are on a serious charge, however Connacht are my current favourites for the title (if Aki is fit). If Leinster have a home semi as seems almost inevitable then they'll be decent contenders in the final against either, even though they've been lacklustre.

The permutations for the European places are myriad. It all seems to work in Ulster's favour though.

Can you see Ulster beating Leinster at home? If Leinster win, that is huge pressure on Ulster for the Ospreys game

I could see us beating Leinster - they're not all that at the moment. Huge pressure on all games now is a given. However all our competitiors for European places seem to have to play each other: Munster v embra; Scarlets v Munster. I suppose in theory Cardiff are in touching distance as well but they have to play Embra as well. I can't be assed to crunch the numbers but it's probably impossible for them all to finish ahead of us.

[Dacre]

So it looks like we'll get at least 3 Irish teams into the Champions Cup, probably 4. Under the old system this would have been an almighty bun fight. Now Munster pretty much just needs to beat Embra and we'll have more money and more teams than we had under the old. You know how I said in the past that the new system would make little difference to the irish but the welsh were screwing themselves...

Glasgow are on a serious charge, however Connacht are my current favourites for the title (if Aki is fit). If Leinster have a home semi as seems almost inevitable then they'll be decent contenders in the final against either, even though they've been lacklustre.

The permutations for the European places are myriad. It all seems to work in Ulster's favour though.

Can you see Ulster beating Leinster at home? If Leinster win, that is huge pressure on Ulster for the Ospreys game

I could see us beating Leinster - they're not all that at the moment. Huge pressure on all games now is a given. However all our competitiors for European places seem to have to play each other: Munster v embra; Scarlets v Munster. I suppose in theory Cardiff are in touching distance as well but they have to play Embra as well. I can't be assed to crunch the numbers but it's probably impossible for them all to finish ahead of us.

If you lose both games with no bonus points, Scarlets beat the Dragons and Cardiff & Munster win both of their games with at least one bonus point, they will all finish above you and you will finish 7th

[Eugene Wrayburn]

Can you see Ulster beating Leinster at home? If Leinster win, that is huge pressure on Ulster for the Ospreys game

I could see us beating Leinster - they're not all that at the moment. Huge pressure on all games now is a given. However all our competitiors for European places seem to have to play each other: Munster v embra; Scarlets v Munster. I suppose in theory Cardiff are in touching distance as well but they have to play Embra as well. I can't be assed to crunch the numbers but it's probably impossible for them all to finish ahead of us.

If you lose both games with no bonus points, Scarlets beat the Dragons and Cardiff & Munster win both of their games with at least one bonus point, they will all finish above you and you will finish 7th

Ta. Doesn't seem terribly likely.

[Dacre]

After the first 3 games of round 21 the biggest upset was Connacht losing at Treviso but they earned a losing bonus point.

Glasgow stuffed Zebra and Munster earned a try bonus point against Edinburgh with Edinburgh failing to get a losing bonus point

Glasgow on 71 after 21 games
Connacht on 69 after 21 games
Leinster on 68 after 20 games
Ulster on 60 after 20 games
Scarlets on 58 after 20 games
Munster on 58 after 21 games
Edinburgh on 53 after 21 games
Cardiff on 52 after 20 games
Ospreys on 49 after 20 games

Ulster v Leinster is a massive game - if Leinster win they will have a home play off semi as they have Treviso at home in round 22
Connacht losing at Treviso looks like they have blown a home play off place as they have Glasgow at home in round 22
Cardiff need to beat the Ospreys and score 4 try's to keep the pressure on Munster and Edinburgh for 6th
Scarlets need to beat the Dragons to keep the pressure on Ulster for 4th

It's all to play for

[BigAl]

Irrespective of the Ulster v Leinster result today Leinster will stuff Treviso in the last game ensuring at least second place (1st if they win today). Ulster probably need the win more than Leinster.

Connaught v Glasgow next week is probably the biggest game of the regular season the Pro 12 has ever seen. Glasgow on a roll with their 1st choice XXIII more or less available. Connaught at home though are no push over under any circumstances. Winner gets a home semi final, loser travels. Massive

[Eugene Wrayburn]

Fantastic performance from Ulster there. Just missed the bonus point and prevented Leinster from scoring. That will put the wind up everyone else. Guaranteed top 6. Come on the Dragons!!

[Cameo]

quite a few possible permutations now. Any one of the top 5 could play any one of the others as far as I can see. Very tasty semis either way

[mcshinnertheligind]

Embra let me down for 6 win accy. Useless Jockistani bestirts..

[Eugene Wrayburn]

I was just about to write a post about Irish dominance but actually I don't think that's the story at all. the story is the rude health that this league is in. So much was at stake in the last weekend. The Italians have clocked up 9 wins between them - same as the bottom 2 in the AP and same as the bottom 2 in the T14 after 22 rounds. Connacht, perennial failures, have finished second playing some truly sparkling rugby. In fact all of the top 5 are committed to using the ball and play some beautiful stuff. We really need to talk our league up more. It's been excellent this season.

[Eugene Wrayburn]

Two excellent semifinals. One saw the recovery of leinster from mediocre form most of the season and Ulster quite frankly not measuring up on the big occasion yet again. Somehow our forwards didn't expect the onsluaght and our tight 5 were pretty much overwhelmed.

The 2nd semifinal saw Connacht off their best beat a Glasgow team that was unlucky with injuries but unable to cope with the mixed game that Connacht bring. Bludgeon of Aki combined with rapier of Healy and Tiernan. I don't generally like the idea of project players (that's putting it very mildly) but I'm not sure there's a man who's been prouder to pull on the green shirt of Connacht or given more of himself every time he plays than Aki. If nationality is about buying into culture then he's as Irish as anyone else already.

Can't wait for the final. It's going to be massive. If I didn't have other responsibilities I'd be going to sheer on the Westies.

[Spiffy]

Two excellent semifinals. One saw the recovery of leinster from mediocre form most of the season and Ulster quite frankly not measuring up on the big occasion yet again. Somehow our forwards didn't expect the onsluaght and our tight 5 were pretty much overwhelmed.

The 2nd semifinal saw Connacht off their best beat a Glasgow team that was unlucky with injuries but unable to cope with the mixed game that Connacht bring. Bludgeon of Aki combined with rapier of Healy and Tiernan. I don't generally like the idea of project players (that's putting it very mildly) but I'm not sure there's a man who's been prouder to pull on the green shirt of Connacht or given more of himself every time he plays than Aki. If nationality is about buying into culture then he's as Irish as anyone else already.

Can't wait for the final. It's going to be massive. If I didn't have other responsibilities I'd be going to sheer on the Westies.

Aki is something special, and more than just a bludgeon - see his delicate little chip through for Adeolokun's try Adeolokun must be the fastest man in Irish rugby with both balzing acceleration and top end gas (and he's Irish qualified, having lived there since age 10). Healey and O'Halloran are not far behind, and as a unit are a tremendously pacy back three. I'd like to see all three of them on the Ireland training squad.