RWC2023 qualification predictions

[Lizard]

Qualifying format is here: https://www.world.rugby/news/570193

TRC, 6N, Fiji and Japan are automagically qualified.

My picks are:
Americas 1: USA
Americas 2: Uruguay
Americas 3 (repechage): Canada

Europe 1: Georgia
Europe 2: Russia
Europe 3 (rep.): Romania

Africa 1: Namibia
Africa 2 (rep.): Kenya

Oceania 1: Samoa
Oceania 2 (Asia/Pac playoff): Tonga

Asia 1 (Asia/Pac playoff): Hong Kong

Asia/Pacific playoff: Tonga

Repechage tournament: Canada

[Puja]

I'd generally agree with you, except that I'd expect Romania and Spain to outqualify Russia in Europe. Not sure in which order though. And I'm far from convinced Canada will make it through the repechage this time! Heck, it's possible (if unlikely) they might be pipped to Americas 3 by Brazil given their current trajectories.

The fact that we already know 6 of the qualifiers and can have pretty solid guesses about the last 2 is an inditement of the current process. RWC 2023 should have been a 24 team tournament. That way there's 12 spaces and you could have:

2 Oceania - Samoa, Tonga
1 Asia - Hong Kong
2 Africa - Namibia, Kenya
3 Americas - USA, Uruguay, Canada
3 Europe - Georgia, Romania, Spain
1 Repechage - could be anyone in this comp, but I'd guess at Russia coming out top of a tournament of Korea/Zimbabwe/Russia/Brazil

Puja

[Mellsblue]

Cancelled due to COVID-22.

[Lizard]

I'd generally agree with you, except that I'd expect Romania and Spain to outqualify Russia in Europe. Not sure in which order though. And I'm far from convinced Canada will make it through the repechage this time! Heck, it's possible (if unlikely) they might be pipped to Americas 3 by Brazil given their current trajectories.

The fact that we already know 6 of the qualifiers and can have pretty solid guesses about the last 2 is an inditement of the current process. RWC 2023 should have been a 24 team tournament. That way there's 12 spaces and you could have:

2 Oceania - Samoa, Tonga
1 Asia - Hong Kong
2 Africa - Namibia, Kenya
3 Americas - USA, Uruguay, Canada
3 Europe - Georgia, Romania, Spain
1 Repechage - could be anyone in this comp, but I'd guess at Russia coming out top of a tournament of Korea/Zimbabwe/Russia/Brazil

Puja

Yep. I had written a much longer post with detailed reasoning but it got lost due to my log in timing out or something. Europe is obviously the most competitive - Spain, Romania, Russia and Portugal are ranked 18th, 19th, 20th, and 21st. I feel that Spain will have lost momentum by failing to qualify for 2019. Canada surely must stop its slide at some point, but it would be great if Brazil can shock them.

[Mellsblue]

I'd generally agree with you, except that I'd expect Romania and Spain to outqualify Russia in Europe. Not sure in which order though. And I'm far from convinced Canada will make it through the repechage this time! Heck, it's possible (if unlikely) they might be pipped to Americas 3 by Brazil given their current trajectories.

The fact that we already know 6 of the qualifiers and can have pretty solid guesses about the last 2 is an inditement of the current process. RWC 2023 should have been a 24 team tournament. That way there's 12 spaces and you could have:

2 Oceania - Samoa, Tonga
1 Asia - Hong Kong
2 Africa - Namibia, Kenya
3 Americas - USA, Uruguay, Canada
3 Europe - Georgia, Romania, Spain
1 Repechage - could be anyone in this comp, but I'd guess at Russia coming out top of a tournament of Korea/Zimbabwe/Russia/Brazil

Puja

Yep. I had written a much longer post with detailed reasoning but it got lost due to my log in timing out or something.

Good to see the new software to stop people dominating a board is working. Hopefully, it’ll stop those two idiots on the MLR thread shortly.

[Puja]

I'd generally agree with you, except that I'd expect Romania and Spain to outqualify Russia in Europe. Not sure in which order though. And I'm far from convinced Canada will make it through the repechage this time! Heck, it's possible (if unlikely) they might be pipped to Americas 3 by Brazil given their current trajectories.

The fact that we already know 6 of the qualifiers and can have pretty solid guesses about the last 2 is an inditement of the current process. RWC 2023 should have been a 24 team tournament. That way there's 12 spaces and you could have:

2 Oceania - Samoa, Tonga
1 Asia - Hong Kong
2 Africa - Namibia, Kenya
3 Americas - USA, Uruguay, Canada
3 Europe - Georgia, Romania, Spain
1 Repechage - could be anyone in this comp, but I'd guess at Russia coming out top of a tournament of Korea/Zimbabwe/Russia/Brazil

Puja

Yep. I had written a much longer post with detailed reasoning but it got lost due to my log in timing out or something.

Good to see the new software to stop people dominating a board is working. Hopefully, it’ll stop those two idiots on the MLR thread shortly.

Okay, that got a chuckle. Well done!

Puja

[Mellsblue]

Broken clock etc

[Digby]

How Spain fare will depend on the quality of French player they're able to select from

[Lizard]

Samoa are in as Oceania 1. Tonga are Oceania 2.

The Oceania Cup has been called off and Cook Islands, as highest ranked side, have been (rightly) deemed Oceania 3. Cooks will now lose to Tonga, and Tonga will have to then beat Asia 1 to qualify. Asia 1 will be the winner of a tournament between Hong Kong, South Korea and, erm, Malaysia.

[Puja]

I'm really surprised that Samoa beat Tonga, and so handily too. I was worried about the added stress to England of having Tonga in their group as *another* team to have to take seriously, given that they'd picked up the likes of Fekitoa and Timani through the Olympics loophole and then they didn't use any of them in the qualifying.

Puja

[Lizard]

Pleasingly, Canada has upset the Eagles in the first match of the two-legged North American decider, 34 - 21, in their first win over their southern neighbour since 2013. The return fixture is next week. The winner will play Uruguay to decide Americas 1. The loser will play a repechage round against Chile. I'm picking the USA to buck their ideas up at home and take the aggregate win, before beating Uruguay for the top spot. Canada should deal to Chile, and then face Uruguay for the Americas 2 spot.

[Mr Mwenda]

C'mon the Canucks!

[Puja]

I remain baffled by that result. I hadn't even bothered checking the score because I'd considered it so much of a foregone conclusion, so I've no idea how the Canucks have managed to pull that off. Fair play to them - must've been a well-designed plan, executed excellently.

Will it work twice though? 13 points isn't insuperable in the second leg - I read they conceded a last minute 7 to bring their advantage down, which they might come to rue.

You'd've thought Uruguay would take down whichever wins for Americas 1, especially given the time they've had together in camp.

Puja

[Lizard]

I literally couldn’t watch the 2nd leg - just not available in NZ. Seems like the USA did the necessary without too much trouble.

[Puja]

Normal service resumed. I suspect the USA might've gone into the first leg thinking it was a foregone conclusion and got something of a wakeup call. Still think they'll get handily clumped by Uruguay though.

Canada should have enough to see off Chile though, so repechage it is again for them.

[Lizard]

Wow. Canada are out. Toppled by Chile. 2023 will be the first RWC without a Canadian side in it. Quite sad for them.

The South American dominance also saw Uruguay beat USA to become qualify directly as Americas 1. Their prize is a spot in the pool containing Italy, France and the All Blacks.

USA now plays Chile home & away next year to decide the Americas 2 qualifier. The loser will go into the repechage tournament.

[Puja]

Not surprised about Uruguay - they've been in camp, focussing on this game, for a long time and we saw in Japan what kind of results they can produce with that. Canada is just sad, although great news for the burgeoning game in Chile.

The RWC needs expanding to 24 teams asap to make sure that teams like Uruguay have a second round to aim for, rather than just doing well in the pools. I'd back Uruguay to take down Namibia and possibly even Italy if they target them like they did Fiji, but right now, there's zero possibility of them qualifying for a knockout.

Puja

[Mr Mwenda]

No Canada . G'wan Chile I guess.

[Puja]

The IRB have decided that all remaining Russia games are 4 point wins, which confirms Georgia's qualification as Europe 1. Not that Russia have been any great shakes this qualifying cycle anyway; they'd only won 2 games so far anyway.

Makes for a fascinating weekend of games coming up: Spain, Portugal and Romania are all in the hunt for the second automatic qualifying place with the first two level on 25 points and Romania in behind on 22 points. And the fixtures are: Romania vs Georgia and Spain vs Portugal.

If Romania lose to Georgia, then it's game over (unless it's a no bonus-point draw between the Iberians). If they win, they've got a game in hand against the Netherlands, which should be 5 points. Meanwhile, Spain and Portugal play out what is nearly a winner-takes-all match - Spain will technically have a second chance as they have a game in hand, but that game is away in Georgia (not quite the guaranteed loss that it used to be, but still pretty unlikely).

I'd quite like to see Spain get another go at the RWC - they are building the game there with some half-decent crowds and qualifying would be a big fillip. Especially with 2 of the Europe 2 games taking place in Bordeaux, just over the border from Spain. You'd've thought the southern French crowds would adopt them as a second team as well.

Puja

[cashead]

The Spaniards did just tip over World Cup regulars Romania, so yeah, definitely in with a shout.

[Puja]

Spain beat Portugal 33:28 to secure their place as Europe 2. Huge opportunity for the game there. Facing South Africa, Ireland, Scotland, and (likely) Tonga, so I don't think there's a win available, but it'll be huge just to be involved.

Unless Netherlands can pull out a miracle next weekend, then it'll be Romania going through to the repechage tournament and Portgual getting to think about what they could have won.

Puja

[Lizard]

Hat tip to Puja for predicting Spain to qualify. I didn’t predict Russia being biffed out for war mongering.

Spain’s first go at the big dance in nearly quarter of a century. Good on them.

[Lizard]

African qualifying could become a bit of a lottery. The last round is a straight 8-team knock out, being played in France, of course.

[Puja]

Hat tip to Puja for predicting Spain to qualify. I didn’t predict Russia being biffed out for war mongering.

Spain’s first go at the big dance in nearly quarter of a century. Good on them.

Mind, Russia weren't in with a hope even before the warmongering - they'd only got two victories and one of those was against The Netherlands. Massive backslide from 2019.

African qualifying could become a bit of a lottery. The last round is a straight 8-team knock out, being played in France, of course.

That could be fun - I've always got the impression that Namibia tend to outlast other African qualifiers rather than being necessarily significantly better. Three game knockout could give Uganda/Kenya a chance of an upset.

Seems cruel opening the tournament with Namibia vs Burkina Faso though. Poor sods travel all the way to France to get brutally murdered in the first game before turning around to go home again.

Puja

[Mr Mwenda]

Bah, would've preferred Portugal for personal reasons. Still nice to see Spain once again!